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The tax penalty for noncompliance with the Affordable Care Act's individual mandate is to be eliminated starting in 2019. We investigated the potential impact of this change on enrollees' decisions to purchase insurance and on individual-market premiums. In a survey of enrollees in the individual market in California in 2017, 19 percent reported that they would not have purchased insurance had there been no penalty. We estimated that premiums would increase by 4-7 percent if these enrollees were not in the risk pool. The percentages of enrollees who would forgo insurance were higher among those vdth lower income and education, Hispanics, and those who had been uninsured in the prior year, relative to the comparison groups. Compared to older enrollees and those with two or more chronic conditions, respectively, younger enrollees and those with no chronic conditions were also more likely to say that they would not have purchased insurance. Eliminating the mandate penalty alone is unlikely to destabilize the California individual market but could erode coverage gains, especially among groups whose members have historically been less likely to be insured. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Consumer-directed health plans are plans with high deductibles that typically require patients to bear no out-of-pocket costs for preventive care, such as annual physicals or screening tests, in order to ease financial barriers and encourage patients to seek such care. We surveyed people in California who had a consumer-directed health plan and found that fewer than one in five understood that their plan exempted preventive office visits, medical tests, and screenings from their deductible, meaning that this care was free or had a modest copayment. Roughly one in five said that they had delayed or avoided a preventive office visit, test, or screening because of cost. Those who were confused about the exemption were significantly more likely to report avoiding preventive visits because of cost concerns. Special efforts to educate consumers about preventive care cost-sharing exemptions may be necessary as more health plans, including Medicare, adopt this model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]