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Baseline studies of small rodent populations in undisturbed ecosystems are rare. We report here 50 years of monitoring and experimentation in Yukon of a dominant rodent species in the North American boreal forest, the red‐backed vole Clethrionomys rutilus. These voles breed in summer, weigh 20–25 g, and reach a maximum density of 20 to 25 per ha. Their populations have shown consistent 3–4‐year cycles for the last 50 years with the only change being that peak densities averaged 8/ha until 2000 and 18/ha since that year. During the last 25 years, we have measured food resources, predator numbers, and winter weather, and for 1‐year social interactions, to estimate their contribution to changes in the rate of summer increase and the rate of overwinter decline. All these potential limiting factors could contribute to changes in density, and we measured their relative contributions statistically with multiple regressions. The rate of winter decline in density was related to both food supply and winter severity. The rate of summer increase was related to summer berry crops and white spruce cone production. No measure of predator numbers was related to winter or summer changes in vole abundance. There was a large signal of climate change effects in these populations. There is no density dependence in summer population growth and only a weak one in winter population declines. None of our results provide a clear understanding of what generates 3–4‐year cycles in these voles, and the major missing piece may be an understanding of social interactions at high density. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under climate change circumstances, increasing studies have reported the temporal instability of tree growth responses to climate, which poses a major challenge to linearly extrapolating past climate and future growth dynamics using tree‐ring data. Space‐for‐time substitution (SFTS) is a potential solution to this problem that is widely used in the dendrochronology field to project past or future temporal growth response trajectories from contemporary spatial patterns. However, the projected accuracy of the SFTS in the climate effects on tree growth remains uncertain. Here, we empirically test the SFTS method by comparing the effect of spatial and temporal climate variations on climate responses of white spruce (Picea glauca), which has a transcontinental range in North America. We first applied a response surface regression model to capture the variations in growth responses along the spatial climate gradients. The results showed that the relationships between growth and June temperature varied along spatial climate gradients in a predictable way. And their relationships varied mainly along with local temperate condition. Then, the projected correlation coefficients between growth and climate using SFTS were compared against the observed. We found that the growth response changes caused by spatial versus temporal climate variations showed opposite trends. Moreover, the projected correlation coefficients using the SFTS were significantly lower than the observed. This finding suggests that applying the SFTS to project the growth response of white spruce might lead to an overestimation of the degree of tree maladaptation in future climate scenarios. And the overestimation is likely to get weaker from Alaska and Yukon Territory in the west to Quebec in the east. Although this is only a case study of the SFTS method for projecting tree growth response, our findings suggest that direct application of the SFTS method may not be applicable to all regions and all tree species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tree-ring data for 1942 - 2013 were used to determine if boreal and subalpine Picea albertiana S. Brown emend. Strong & Hills radial growth rates changed after 1950 in southern Yukon, northwest Canada. The latter year represented the beginning of accelerated atmospheric greenhouse gas accumulation, which has subsequently caused global climate changes. Ring-width chronologies for both boreal and subalpine trees were constructed using 80 trees. Individual ring-width sequences were crossdated, age-detrended, and converted to tree ring-width indices (RWI). In 2013, boreal and subalpine RWI were 41% and 169% greater than in 1950, respectively. In contrast, elevational treeline chronologies in the region typically decreased 20% - 70%. During 1942 - 2013, boreal and subalpine chronologies were significantly, at best modestly (r < |0.36|), and exclusively correlated with either moisture or temperature variables, respectively. Within this same time frame, RWI-climate variable correlates differed between the early and late phases of each chronology. Average pre-1969 or early-phase boreal correlations based on a 19-year moving window reached a maximum of - 0.56. Late-phase chronology correlations typically shifted towards weaker associations with climate variables (typically +0.04 to +0.30). For boreal RWI, 25 of 68 tested climate variables shifted as much as 0.40 - 0.88 correlation coefficient units between the early and late phases of the chronologies. Subalpine RWI were correlated only with July - August precipitation during the early phase of its chronology. These changes suggest responses by spruce to climate have shifted since 1970. The modest 1942 - 2013 RWI-climate variable correlations likely reflect the result of these changing ecological relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Sustainable forest management (SFM) requires the balancing of diverse values and conflicting management objectives. Climate change adds a further degree of uncertainty to this complex issue. In this study we analysed a Strategic Forest Management Plan (SFMP) from the southwest Yukon, Canada. The SFMP was developed to enable the salvage harvesting of beetle-killed white spruce stands and encourage fuel-abatement treatments to reduce fire risk to local communities. It did not, however, provide a long-term strategy to achieve SFM in the region. In this study, the SFMP served as the basis to develop and evaluate alternative forest management strategies in the context of climate change. Working group discussions with local stakeholders enabled the structuring of a ratings table that helped practitioners and experts to characterize five alternative strategies stemming from the SFMP, based on its main goals and objectives. An Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was then used to balance competing values and objectives and test the alternatives against each other. The strategy ‘Manage for multiple values and use’ had the highest AHP-score when compared to the four other alternatives (timber, wildlife, fire risk reduction and carbon), which were narrower in scope. It may represent the best balance for the ecological and socio-economic values listed in the SFMP. Although the multiple values (MV) alternative is closest to the current SFMP in terms of scope, this study highlights that there are viable alternatives such as ‘manage for wildlife’ that achieved similar scores to the MV approach. The current SFMP has great potential to serve as a basis and starting point for a continuous and adaptive planning process for forest management. Exploring the different/alternative strategic directions will help to better address uncertain futures, thereby leading to more sustainable approaches. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Small-scale vertical aerial photographs taken in 1947 and 1948 covering 200 km2 of the Kluane Ranges, southwest Yukon, were compared with corresponding photographs taken in 1989 for the purpose of characterizing changes in the distribution and abundance of white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) at the alpine treeline. Digital photogrammetry, including orthorectification and on-screen interpretation, was supplemented by stereoscopic inspection of the original prints. Qualitative assessment of change across nine image pairs was accompanied by quantitative analysis of changes in spruce density and elevation using 1 hectare plots and 100 m wide elevational belt transects, respectively, superimposed on the orthorectified images. Significant changes were observed over the 41 years, but the degree of change varied throughout the study area. The most common changes were an increase in canopy size of individual trees and an increase in stand density resulting from the establishment of new individuals. Several instances of treeline advance were also observed. An absence of major natural disturbances or widespread land use change indicates that treeline change is attributable to climate. Results from concurrent dendroecological studies indicate that these dynamics represent only part of the total extent of change to occur during the 20th century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1 Boundaries between forest and tundra ecosystems, tree lines, are expected to advance in altitude and latitude in response to climate warming. However, varied responses to 20th century warming suggest that in addition to temperature, tree line dynamics are mediated by species-specific traits and environmental conditions at landscape and local scales. 2 We examined recent tree line dynamics at six topographically different, but climatically similar, sites in south-west Yukon, Canada. Dendroecological techniques were used to reconstruct changes in density of the dominant tree species, white spruce ( Picea glauca), and to construct static age distributions of willow ( Salix spp.), one of two dominant shrub genera. Data were analysed to identify periods and rates of establishment and mortality and to relate these to past climate. 3 Tree line elevation and stand density increased significantly during the early to mid 20th century. However, this change was not uniform across sites. Spruce advanced rapidly on south-facing slopes and tree line rose 65–85 m in elevation. Tree line did not advance on north-facing slopes, but stand density increased 40–65%. Differences observed between aspects were due primarily to the differential presence of permafrost. Additional variability among sites was related to slope and vegetation type. Results were less conclusive for willow, but evidence for an advance was found at two sites. 4 Increases in stand density were strongly correlated with summer temperatures. The period of rapid change coincided with a 30-year period of above average temperatures, beginning in 1920. The highest correlations were obtained using a forward average of 30–50 years, supporting the hypothesis that tree line dynamics are controlled more by conditions influencing recruitment than by establishment alone. 5 The changes observed at several sites are suggestive of a threshold response and challenge the notion that tree lines respond gradually to climate warming. Overall, the results provide further evidence to support the idea that the pattern and timing of change is contingent on local, landscape, and regional-scale factors, as well as species’ biology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]