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The evolutionary dynamics of tree species are influenced by their specific climatic environments, and their ability to persist is determined by adaptive strategies such as broad climate tolerance, phenotypic plasticity or genetic differentiation. Biogeographical predictions indicate that populations located at the edges of their ranges are more likely to experience heightened vulnerability to climatic fluctuations due to approaching tolerance limits. However, if local phenotypic acclimation or genetic adaptation has taken place, trees near the edge of their range could demonstrate comparable sensitivity to freeze and drought as the rest of the sampled population. Nevertheless, there remains uncertainty regarding the extent of developmental and evolutionary adjustments in climate sensitivity across the entire ranges of many tree species.Here, we document the biogeography of tree growth sensitivity to freeze and soil water and vapour pressure deficits during 1950–2018 using an extensive multi‐species tree‐ring dataset of 35,784 trees at 4535 sites covering boreal, temperate conifer and temperate deciduous forests of Canada. We quantify the relationships between tree radial growth increment and seasonal climate variables and explore factors driving the observed patterns of annual growth and climate sensitivity such as species, regional climate and local site conditions, and tree age and size.Freeze and drought had widespread impacts on tree growth that were contingent on the presence of focal species in interaction with tree size. An indirect growth thermal limitation towards cold/wet edges, occurring through the site moisture conditions, was observed in seven widespread species (e.g. Picea glauca, Picea mariana and Larix laricina). Moreover, six species had negative drought impacts more strongly expressed towards their warm/dry edges (e.g. Abies balsamea, Betula papyrifera and Pseudotsuga menziesii). However, widespread Picea, Pinus and Populus species showed no indication of increased sensitivity to soil water conditions at these edges.Synthesis. Our findings support the idea of evolutionary or acclimatization adjustments in the development of populations in response to long‐term climate conditions experienced in their respective locations. This underscores the importance of incorporating phenotypic and genomic data into future analyses of climate change impacts, which would enhance our ability to predict potential ecological shifts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under climate change circumstances, increasing studies have reported the temporal instability of tree growth responses to climate, which poses a major challenge to linearly extrapolating past climate and future growth dynamics using tree‐ring data. Space‐for‐time substitution (SFTS) is a potential solution to this problem that is widely used in the dendrochronology field to project past or future temporal growth response trajectories from contemporary spatial patterns. However, the projected accuracy of the SFTS in the climate effects on tree growth remains uncertain. Here, we empirically test the SFTS method by comparing the effect of spatial and temporal climate variations on climate responses of white spruce (Picea glauca), which has a transcontinental range in North America. We first applied a response surface regression model to capture the variations in growth responses along the spatial climate gradients. The results showed that the relationships between growth and June temperature varied along spatial climate gradients in a predictable way. And their relationships varied mainly along with local temperate condition. Then, the projected correlation coefficients between growth and climate using SFTS were compared against the observed. We found that the growth response changes caused by spatial versus temporal climate variations showed opposite trends. Moreover, the projected correlation coefficients using the SFTS were significantly lower than the observed. This finding suggests that applying the SFTS to project the growth response of white spruce might lead to an overestimation of the degree of tree maladaptation in future climate scenarios. And the overestimation is likely to get weaker from Alaska and Yukon Territory in the west to Quebec in the east. Although this is only a case study of the SFTS method for projecting tree growth response, our findings suggest that direct application of the SFTS method may not be applicable to all regions and all tree species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As northern latitudes experience rapid winter warming, there is an urgent need to assess the effect of varying winter conditions on tree growth and forest carbon sequestration potential. We examined tree growth responses to variability in cold-season (November–- April) frequency of freeze days (FFD) over 1951 to 2018 using tree-ring data from 35,217 trees and 57 species at 4,375 sites distributed across Canada. We found that annual radial growth responses to FFD varied by species, with some commonalities across genera and clades. The growth of gymnosperms with late spring leaf-out strategies was negatively related to FFD; years with high FFD were most detrimental to the annual growth of Pinus banksiana, Pinus contorta, Larix lyalli, Abies amabilis, and Abies lasiocarpa. In contrast, the growth of angiosperms with early leaf-out strategies, namely, Populus tremuloides and Betula papyrifera, was better in the coldest years, and gymnosperms with intermediate leaf-out timing, such as widespread Picea mariana and Picea glauca, had no consistent relationship to FFD. Tree growth responses to FFD were further modulated by tree size, tree age, regional climate (i.e., mean cold-season temperature), and local site conditions. Overall, our results suggest that moderately warming winters may temporarily improve the growth of widespread pines and some high-elevation conifers in western Canada, whereas warming winters may be detrimental to the growth of widespread boreal angiosperms. Our findings also highlight the value of using species-specific climate-growth relationships to refine predictions of forest carbon dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With climate change, increasingly intense and frequent drought episodes will be affecting water availability for boreal tree species, prompting tree breeders and forest managers to consider adaptation to drought stress as a priority in their reforestation efforts. We used a 19‐year‐old polycross progeny test of the model conifer white spruce (Picea glauca) replicated on two sites affected by distinct drought episodes at different ages to estimate the genetic control and the potential for improvement of drought response in addition to conventional cumulative growth and wood quality traits. Drought response components were measured from dendrochronological signatures matching drought episodes in wood ring increment cores. We found that trees with more vigorous growth during their lifespan resisted better during the current year of a drought episode when the drought had more severe effects. Phenotypic data were also analyzed using genomic prediction (GBLUP) relying on the genomic relationship matrix of multi‐locus gene SNP marker information, and conventional analysis (ABLUP) based on validated pedigree information. The accuracy of predicted breeding values for drought response components was marginally lower than that for conventional traits and comparable between GBLUP and ABLUP. Genetic correlations were generally low and nonsignificant between drought response components and conventional traits, except for resistance which was positively correlated to tree height. Heritability estimates for the components of drought response were slightly lower than for conventional traits, but similar single‐trait genetic gains could be obtained. Multi‐trait genomic selection simulations indicated that it was possible to improve simultaneously for all traits on both sites while sacrificing little on gain in tree height. In a context of rapid climate change, our results suggest that with careful phenotypic assessment, drought response may be considered in multi‐trait improvement of white spruce, with accelerated screening of large numbers of candidates and selection at young age with genomic selection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns due to climate change can affect tree growth in boreal forests. Periodic insect outbreaks affect the growth trajectory of trees, making it difficult to quantify the climate signal in growth dynamics at scales longer than a year. We studied climate‐driven growth trends and the influence of spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) outbreaks on these trends by analyzing the basal area increment (BAI) of 2058 trees of Abies balsamea (L.) Mill., Picea glauca (Moench) Voss, Thuja occidentalis L., Populus tremuloides Michx., and Betula papyrifera Marsh, which co‐occurs in the boreal mixedwood forests of western Quebec. We used a generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) to analyze species‐specific trends in BAI dynamics from 1967 to 1991. The model relied on tree size, cambial age, degree of spruce budworm defoliation, and seasonal climatic variables. Overall, we observed a decreasing growth rate of the spruce budworm host species, A. balsamea and P. glauca between 1967 and 1991, and an increasing growth rate for the non‐host, P. tremuloides, B. papyrifera, and T. occidentalis. Our results suggest that insect outbreaks may offset growth increases resulting from a warmer climate. The observation warrants the inclusion of the spruce budworm defoliation into models predicting future forest productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A cost‐effective climate change adaptation strategy for the forestry sector is to move seed sources to more northern and higher elevation planting sites as part of ongoing reforestation programs. This is meant to match locally adapted populations with anticipated environments, but adaptive traits do not always show population differences suitable to mitigate climate change impacts. For white spruce, drought tolerance is a critical adaptive trait to prevent mortality and productivity losses. Here, we use a 40‐year‐old provenance experiment that has been exposed to severe drought periods in 1999 and 2002 to retrospectively investigate drought response and the adaptive capacity of white spruce populations across their boreal range. Relying on dendrochronological analysis under experimentally controlled environments, we evaluate population differences in resistance, resilience, and recovery to these extreme events. Results showed evidence for population differentiation in resistance and recovery parameters, but provenances conformed to approximately the same growth rates under drought conditions and had similar resilience metrics. The lack of populations with better growth rates under drought conditions is contrary to expectations for a wide‐ranging species with distinct regional climates. Populations from the wettest environments in the northeastern boreal were surprisingly drought‐tolerant, suggesting that these populations would readily resist water deficits projected for the 2080s, and supporting the view that northeastern Canada will provide a refugium for boreal species under climate change. The findings also suggest that white spruce is sensitive to growth reductions under climate change in the western boreal. The study highlights that population differentiation in adaptive capacity is species‐ and trait‐specific, and we provide a counterexample for drought tolerance traits, where assisted migration prescriptions may be ineffective to mitigate climate change impacts. For resource managers and policy makers, we provide maps where planning for widespread declines of boreal white spruce forests may be unavoidable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The boreal biome represents approximately one third of the world's forested area and plays an important role in global biogeochemical and energy cycles. Numerous studies in boreal Alaska have concluded that growth of black and white spruce is declining as a result of temperature‐induced drought stress. The combined evidence of declining spruce growth and changes in the fire regime that favor establishment of deciduous tree species has led some investigators to suggest the region may be transitioning from dominance by spruce to dominance by deciduous forests and/or grasslands. Although spruce growth trends have been extensively investigated, few studies have evaluated long‐term radial growth trends of the dominant deciduous species (Alaska paper birch and trembling aspen) and their sensitivity to moisture availability. We used a large and spatially extensive sample of tree cores from interior Alaska to compare long‐term growth trends among contrasting tree species (white and black spruce vs. birch and aspen). All species showed a growth peak in the mid‐1940s, although growth following the peak varied strongly across species. Following an initial decline from the peak, growth of white spruce showed little evidence of a trend, while black spruce and birch growth showed slight growth declines from ~1970 to present. Aspen growth was much more variable than the other species and showed a steep decline from ~1970 to present. Growth of birch, black and white spruce was sensitive to moisture availability throughout most of the tree‐ring chronologies, as evidenced by negative correlations with air temperature and positive correlations with precipitation. However, a positive correlation between previous July precipitation and aspen growth disappeared in recent decades, corresponding with a rise in the population of the aspen leaf miner (Phyllocnistis populiella), an herbivorous moth, which may have driven growth to a level not seen since the early 20th century. Our results provide important historical context for recent growth and raise questions regarding competitive interactions among the dominant tree species and exchanges of carbon and energy in the warming climate of interior Alaska. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper integrates dendrochronological, demographic, and experimental perspectives to improve understanding of the response of white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) tree growth to climatic variability in interior Alaska. The dendrochronological analyses indicate that climate warming has led to widespread declines in white spruce growth throughout interior Alaska that have become more prevalent during the 20th century. Similarly, demographic studies show that white spruce tree growth is substantially limited by soil moisture availability in both mid- and late-successional stands. Interannual variability in tree growth among stands within a landscape exhibits greater synchrony than does growth of trees that occupy different landscapes, which agrees with dendrochronological findings that the responses depend on landscape position and prevailing climate. In contrast, the results from 18 years of a summer moisture limitation experiment showed that growth in midsuccessional upland stands was unaffected by moisture limitation and that moisture limitation decreased white spruce growth in floodplain stands where it was expected that growth would be less vulnerable because of tree access to river water. Taken together, the evidence from the different perspectives analyzed in this study clearly indicates that white spruce tree growth in interior Alaska is vulnerable to the effects of warming on plant water balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northern and high-latitude alpine treelines are generally thought to be limited by available warmth. Most studies of tree-growth–climate interaction at treeline as well as climate reconstructions using dendrochronology report positive growth response of treeline trees to warmer temperatures. However, population-wide responses of treeline trees to climate remain largely unexamined. We systematically sampled 1558 white spruce at 13 treeline sites in the Brooks Range and Alaska Range. Our findings of both positive and negative growth responses to climate warming at treeline challenge the widespread assumption that arctic treeline trees grow better with warming climate. High mean temperatures in July decreased the growth of 40% of white spruce at treeline areas in Alaska, whereas warm springs enhance growth of additional 36% of trees and 24% show no significant correlation with climate. Even though these opposing growth responses are present in all sampled sites, their relative proportion varies between sites and there is no overall clear relationship between growth response and landscape position within a site. Growth increases and decreases appear in our sample above specific temperature index values (temperature thresholds), which occurred more frequently in the late 20th century. Contrary to previous findings, temperature explained more variability in radial growth after 1950. Without accounting for these opposite responses and temperature thresholds, climate reconstructions based on ring width will miscalibrate past climate, and biogeochemical and dynamic vegetation models will overestimate carbon uptake and treeline advance under future warming scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]