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Climatic events and other natural-related disasters experienced in the arid and semi-arid lands of northern Kenya negatively affect the pastoral livelihoods of the communities. Addressing vulnerability to climate shocks among pastoral communities of Kenya's Arid and Semi-lands presents a persistent challenge. Cash transfer programmes have increasingly grown as one mode of building household resilience. Understanding the role of cash transfer interventions on household resilience to climate shocks is key to policy programming. This paper aimed at determining the effects of cash transfers on household resilience to climate shocks. The paper evaluated the Hunger Safety Net Program, which is one of the largest unconditional cash transfer programs in Kenya. The Hunger Safety Net Program targeted poor people in northern Kenya including the counties of Turkana, Wajir, Marsabit, and Mandera. To establish the impact the paper compares households which received cash transfers with those that did not receive transfers. The panel fixed effects model was used to determine the effects of cash transfers on household resilience. The results indicate that cash transfers have positive significant effects on household resilience to climate shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results of a detailed review of the research literature on how nomadic pastoralists are being affected by climate change, how they are adapting, and challenges with using traditional knowledge in adaptation. It focuses on research that investigates local, and particularly traditional, knowledge of water, pasture, their variability, and livestock. This knowledge underpins nomadic livelihoods, so is a foundation for effective adaptation. Changes in the total amount of precipitation, and particularly shifts in its timing, and increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, are having the greatest impacts on herding livelihoods. Herders in drylands worldwide face common adaptation challenges: declining traditional water sources and pasture degradation. Herders' adaptation strategies fall into five major categories: movement to areas with better water and pasture, improving seasonal access to water, improving seasonal access to feed, shifts in herd composition, and livelihood diversification. Movement is central to nomads' adaptation, yet, as climate change takes hold, restrictions on movement are increasing for both socio-economic reasons and climate reasons. Many papers emphasised the importance of combining traditional knowledge and current science to guide adaptation decision-making at household, locality, and national levels. There is widespread concern about the decline in traditional knowledge. All the papers reviewed emphasised the need to support passing on traditional know-how. Herder women's know-how, in particular, is marginalised in the research literature, so their traditional knowledge should be a focus in further research. Herders' adaptations are mostly localised, incremental, and have a relatively short-term focus. As nomadic pastoralism moves further outside the range of historical experience, the possibility of more profound transformations looms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trees provide vital ecosystem services, yet anthropogenic activities have continued to reduce tree cover (TC) globally, leading to disparities in the distribution of ecosystem services at various scales. Similarly, empirical analysis of indicators that measure variations in TC at various temporal and spatial scales is limited in the semi-arid regions where global environmental challenges such as climate change are already affecting TC distribution. This paper quantified recent (2017 - 2019) TC changes in the semi-arid region of Ghana using Sentinel-2 times series data and the application of landscape metrics. The results showed that TC declined by 30% within two years. Urbanizing areas showed more rapid TC depletion rates, while some rural areas experienced a slight increase in TC. The findings suggest the need for local environmental governance by consolidating actions towards conserving semi-arid TC. Sustainable charcoal and fuelwood production are imperative for a long-term sustainable supply of ecosystem services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rehabilitation of post-mining sites in semi-arid/subtropical environments of eastern Australia have a general objective to establish specific types of native vegetation communities as defined in mine closure plans and in relation to the specific biotic and abiotic requirements of such communities. Critical for the success of rehabilitation is the availability of water and hence the climatic characteristic of this geographical region which is defined by a number of weather-bound factors (e.g. potentially erratic rainfall and periods of drought and flooding). However, specific estimates of climate suitability are seldom incorporated into current mined land rehabilitation design. To address this, our analysis combined various broad-scale climatic parameters (i.e. primarily relating to rainfall) to assess bioregional suitability-susceptibility within the context of plant early-establishment in the objective of informing rehabilitation schemes as to the inherent environmental challenges influencing both short- and long-term ecological development. Following our survey of available climate data, we derived site suitability-susceptibility indexes (that are otherwise currently not available within rehabilitation schemes) and compared the performance of 9 mine site locations in which our Centre has been engaged in environmental monitoring (Weipa, Mt. Isa, Ernest Henry, Eromanga, Kidston, Curragh, Tarong, North Stradbroke Island, and Newnes Plateau). More specifically, the sites were ranked from most-to-least suitable and compared with natural vegetation patterns (as estimated by the mean NDVI). Overall, it was determined that regular rainfall and relatively short periods of water-deficit are key characteristics of climate suitability (as found among the relatively more temperate coastal-hinterland sites), whereas high rainfall variability and (or) prolonged seasonal drought are primary characteristics of unsuitability (as found among the arid central-inland sites). Conceptual and practical considerations are provided which could inform rehabilitation schemes as to the inherent environmental challenges influencing both short- and long-term ecological development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tarim Basin is a large inland arid basin in the arid region of northwest China and has been experiencing significant "warming and wetting" since 1987. As a result, the purpose of this paper is to determine whether the climate transition phenomenon occurred in the Tarim Basin as well as the role of atmospheric circulation in this process. We use meteorological data and atmospheric circulation indexes to study the seasonal trends of climate change in this region from 1987 to 2020 to understand how they are affected by atmospheric circulation. The findings show that, from 1987 to 2020, the Tarim Basin experienced significant warming and wetting; with the exception of the winter scale, all other seasonal scales exhibited a clear warming and wetting trend. From the perspective of spatial distribution, most of the areas showed a significant warming trend, and the warming amplitude around the basin is greater than that in the central area of the basin. However, there are significant regional differences in precipitation change rates. Meanwhile, wavelet analysis shows that there is a significant oscillation period of 17–20 years between climate change and the atmospheric circulation index during 1987–2020. The correlation analysis shows that the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are the main influencing factors of climate change in the Tarim Basin at different seasonal scales, while the teleconnection of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is low and the PDO dominates the summer and autumn temperature changes in the Tarim Basin. The research results of this paper show that, despite the warming and wetting trends since 1987 in the Tarim Basin, the climate type did not change. From 1987 to 2020, the main teleconnection factors of climate change in the Tarim Basin were PDO and ENSO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: This work aims to analyze flocks' management practices and sheep breeders' perceptions of the impact of climate change to enhance the resilience of the sheep production systems in the Tunisian semi-arid region. The results revealed three main sheep production systems: the agro-pastoral rain-fed system (AGPRF), the agro-pastoral irrigated system (AGPI), and the agro-sylvo-pastoral system (AGSP). Each production system is characterized by specific management and productive parameters that are used by farmers to build resilience actions. However, farmers' climate change perceptions are mostly the same across the three sheep production systems: a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperatures and extreme events, which negatively influence feedstuff availability and costs. Global climate change inflicts unambiguous risks on agricultural systems and food security. Small ruminants are known for their ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions. This paper aims to characterize sheep production systems in a vulnerable agricultural zone and the breeders' perceptions of climate change to apprehend challenges that they are confronting, and formulate resilience actions. The data analysis is based on 94 semi-structured surveys of sheep farmers carried out in the Tunisian semi-arid region. The PCA analysis results revealed three main sheep production systems. The agro-pastoral rain-fed system (AGPRF) is dominant (55%), with large farms and common pastures integrating cereals and fodder. The agro-pastoral irrigated system (AGPI: 20%) is characterized by small-area and forage irrigation (1.8 ha) and a smaller number of ewes but a greater use of animal feed supplementation. The agro-sylvo-pastoral system (AGSP: 25%) is a system where grazing is based on common lands and using tree sub-products, while the agricultural area is exclusively used to cultivate cereal crops. Sheep breeders' climate perceptions are summarized as unpredictable climate events, a decrease in precipitation, and an increase in temperature. Resilience actions principally consist of reducing flocks' numbers, using alternative local feed, fodder, and water resources, and building more shelters and planting more trees in the grazing areas. Nevertheless, cost-effectiveness should be considered in such vulnerable zones to insure the sheep production systems' sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The net primary productivity (NPP) of vegetation is an important indicator reflecting the vegetation dynamics and carbon sequestration capacity in a region. In recent years, China has implemented policies to carry out ecological protection. To understand the changes in the distribution of vegetation NPP in China and the influence of climate factors, the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford approach (CASA) model was used to estimate the NPP from 2001 to 2020. In this paper, several sets of measurement datasets and products were collected to evaluate the effectiveness of the model and suggestions were provided for the modification of the CASA model based on the evaluation results. In addition to the correlation analysis, this paper presents a statistical method for analyzing the quantitative effects in individual climatic factors on NPP changes in large regions. The comparison found that the model has a better estimation effect on grassland and needleleaf forest. The estimation error for the evergreen needleleaf forest (ENF) and deciduous broadleaf forest (DBF) decreases with the warming of the climatic zone, while the evergreen broadleaf forest (EBF) and deciduous needleleaf forest (DNF) do the opposite. The changes in total CASA NPP were consistent with the trends of other products, showing a dynamic increasing trend. In terms of the degree of correlation between the NPP changes and climatic factors, the NPP changes were significantly correlated with temperature in about 10.39% of the vegetation cover area and with precipitation in about 26.92% of the vegetation cover area. It was found that the NPP variation had a negative response to the temperature variation in Inner Mongolia grasslands, while it had a positive but small effect (±10 g C) in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau grasslands. Precipitation had a facilitative effect on the grassland NPP variation, while an increase in the annual precipitation of more than 200 mm had an inhibitory effect in arid and semi-arid regions. This study can provide data and methodological reference for the ecological assessment of large-scale regional and climate anomalous environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is great uncertainty about the future effects of climate change on the global economic, social, environmental, and water sectors. This paper focuses on watershed vulnerabilities to climate change by coupling a distributed hydrological model with artificial neural networks and spatially distributed indicators for the use of a predictive model of such vulnerability. The analyses are complemented by a Monte Carlo evaluation of the uncertainty associated with the projections of the global circulation models, including how such uncertainty impacts the vulnerability forecast. To test the proposal, the paper uses current and future vulnerabilities of the Turbio River watershed, located in the semi-arid zone of Guanajuato (Mexico). The results show that nearly 50% of the watershed currently has medium and high vulnerabilities, and only the natural areas in the watershed show low vulnerabilities. In the future, an increase from medium to high vulnerability is expected to occur in urban and agricultural areas of the basin, with an associated uncertainty of ±15 mm in the projected precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clarifying which factors cause an increase or decrease in soil organic carbon (SOC) after agricultural abandonment requires integration of data on the temporal dynamics of the plant community and SOC. A chronosequence of abandoned vineyards was studied on a volcanic island (Pantelleria, Italy). Vegetation in the abandoned fields was initially dominated by annual and perennial herbs, then by Hyparrhenia hirta (L.) Stapf, and finally by woody communities. As a consequence, the dominant photosynthetic pathway changed from C3 to C4 and then back to C3. Conversion of a plant community dominated by one photosynthetic pathway to an other changes the 13C/12C ratio of inputs to soil organic carbon (SOC). Using the time since abandonment and the shift in belowground δ13C of SOC relative to the aboveground δ13C plant community, we estimated SOC turnover rate. SOC content (g kg-1) increased linearly (R² =0.79 and 0.73 for 0-15 and 15-30cm soil depth) with the age of abandonment, increasing from 12 g kg-1 in cultivated vine yards to as high as 26 g kg-1 in the last stage of the succession. δ13C increased in the bulk soil and its three fractions during succession, but only for soil fractions the effects of soil depth and its interaction with succession age were significant. Polynomial curves described the change in δ13C over the chronosequence for both depths. δ13C in the bulk soil had increased from -28 to -24‰ by 30 yr after abandonment for both depths but then decreased to -26‰ at 60 yr after abandonment corresponding with maturity of the woody plant community). Overall, the results indicate that abandoned vineyards on volcanic soil in a semi-arid environment are C sinks and that C storage in these soils is closely related to plant succession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the warming and humidification process in the Northwest Arid Zone over the past 30 years, the runoff of a vast majority of rivers has been affected to different degrees. In this paper, the runoff from the Weigan River, a typical inland river in the arid zone of Northwest China, is taken as an example, and seven types of CMIP6 data are selected with the help of a SWAT model to predict the runoff volume of the Weigan River in the next 30 years under climate change. The results show that (1) the SWAT model can simulate the runoff from the Weigan River well and has good applicability in this study area. (2) With an increase in radiative forcing, the temperature, precipitation and runoff in the study area show an increasing trend. (3) Under the four radiative forcing scenarios in 2030 and 2050, the runoff from the Weigan River out of the mountain is predicted to be maintained at 25.68 to 30.89 × 108 m3, which is an increase of 1.35% to 21.91% compared with the current runoff, of which the contribution to the increase in future runoff caused by the changes in temperature and precipitation is 68.71% and 27.24%, respectively. It is important to explore the impact of climate change on the runoff from the Weigan River to understand the impact of climate change on the Northwest Arid Region scientifically and rationally, and to provide a scientific basis for evaluating the risk of climate change and formulating policies to deal with it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global climate has undergone great changes in recent decades, which has a significant impact on the vegetation system, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. Based on a dynamic model, this paper studied the response of vegetation pattern to climate change in Qinghai Lake, a typical semiarid region. The conditions for Turing instability of the equilibrium were obtained by mathematical analysis. The numerical experiments showed the influence of different climitic factors (carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], temperature and precipitation) on vegetation pattern. The results showed that the robustness of the vegetation system was enhanced as precipitation or [CO2] increased. Furthermore, we presented evolution of vegetation system under different climate scenarios to forecast the future growth of vegetation. We compared the various climate scenarios with representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). The results revealed that RCP2.6 scenario was a desired climate scenario for Qinghai Lake. Our study also highlighted the measures to avoid desertification by the method of optimal control. We expect that this study will provide theoretical basis for vegetation protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of global warming, snow cover changes have an extremely important impact on the hydrological cycle and the redistribution of water resources in arid and semi-arid regions. In this paper, based on the daily cloud-free snow area remote sensing product data in the source region of Yangtze River (SRYR) from 2000 to 2019, the snow phenology variables such as the snow cover day (SCD), snow onset date (SOD), snow end date (SED), and snow duration day (SDD) were extracted separately for each hydrological year, and the vertical distribution of snow cover area (SCA) in the SRYR was analyzed by combining with the digital elevation model (DEM). In addition, we also combined climate factors and land cover types to further explore the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of snow phenology in response to different influencing factors, in order to reveal the spatiotemporal variation patterns of snow cover in the SRYR. The results showed that: (1) The SCA in the SRYR has a more obvious vertical distribution, with the maximum SCA reaching 61.58% at high elevation, while at low elevation, the SCA is mostly below 20%. The distribution of SCD in the study area showed a significant exponential correlation with DEM (R2 = 0.87). (2) The area of SOD in the SRYR showed an advanced trend of about 63.37%, while the area of SED showed a delayed trend of about 69.59%, and the area which showed significant trends is 4.29% and 4.36%, respectively. Therefore, the trends of both SOD and SED showed insignificant changes. (3) Temperature change is the main factor affecting the change of snow cover in the SRYR. Among them, 90.9% of the regions showed a significant positive correlation between temperature and SCD, while precipitation showed a significant negative correlation with SCD in about 75.3% of the total area of SRYR. Under the stable snow area (SCD > 60), the land cover type is glacial or permanent snow about 1.5 × 103 km2, which covers almost the entire glacial or permanent snow of the SRYR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have explored the long time series and large-scale cultivated land nutrient sensitivity and its spatial differentiation characteristics in arid zones from human activities in the context of climate change. This study is based on 10-year interval data on soil nutrient content of cultivated land in the oasis in Xinjiang, China, cultivated land use intensity (LUI) and climate data sets. Using sensitivity and GIS analysis methods, this paper studies soil nutrient sensitivities and their spatial distribution patterns in the context of LUI and climate change. The results showed significant response differences and spatial heterogeneity regarding the sensitivity of soil nutrient systems to LUI and climate change. Among them, soil nutrients were the most sensitive to temperature changes, followed by LUI, while precipitation was the weakest. Soil nutrient sensitivity showed a decreasing spatial distribution pattern from the northeast to the southwest. The soil nutrient system had a strong adaptability to LUI and climate change. However, there were differences in different sensitivity states. These results provide scientific guidance for the spatial selection and implementation of soil fertility enhancement and land remediation projects in similar arid areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among the pragmatic approaches to addressing the issue of climate change is reduction of its anthropogenic causes (such as emissions from burning of fossil fuels and indiscriminate removal of vegetation cover) and making of conscious efforts toward increasing global vegetation cover. Based on the desirable qualities of afforestation species, this study aimed to quantify the rate of leaf transpiration in seven selected tree species in Ogbomoso Nigeria, with a view to ascertaining their suitability for afforestation of water stress habitats. The mean quantity of water transpired per cm² area of ten randomly selected mature leaves of seven tree species from the study location (80 10' 12.217''N, 40 15'12.607''E - 80 9' 45.834''N, 40 16' 6.209''E) was determined as a difference in the weight of a 4cm² dry cobalt chloride paper (DCCP) and wet cobalt chloride paper stuck to adaxial/upper and abaxial/lower leaf surfaces until the blue DCCP completely turned to pink, and the time taken for this to happen was recorded. The rate of transpiration was also calculated in mg/cm²/min of each leaf surface by dividing the amount of water transpired/cm² area by the respective time taken, and the means for the seven tree species were obtained. Higher mean rates of water transpiration in mg/cm²/min were recorded on the abaxial (18.6±2.4 - 30.6±1.8 in Psidium guajava and Ficus exasperata respectively) than the adaxial (14.4±1.8 - 25.2±6.0, also in P. guajava and F. exasperata) leaf surfaces. Evidence from the statistical analysis led to the conclusion that F. umbellata and F. exasperata are better atmospheric humidifiers than the other five tree species studied which instead, are better water conservers. The rate of leaf transpiration in four of the latter namely; Anacardium occidentale, F. benjamina, Mangifera indica and P. guajava are on a par with the fifth i.e. Azadirachta indica, the widely acclaimed afforestation species of dry lands. Therefore, the seven tree species studied are suitable candidates for afforestation of dry areas, the two humidifiers where increased atmospheric water vapour is desired, and the water conservers for water-stress environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rodents are one of the most abundant and diverse groups of mammals in arid zones. Their population and community dynamics are closely linked to climatic factors and pulses of primary productivity activation. In the future, climatic conditions in arid ecosystems could become more extreme as a consequence of climate change, which could affect the species that inhabit these regions. In this paper, we review the literature on the ecological response of rodents in the world's arid zones, at the population and community levels, to climatological factors (temperature and precipitation), climatic events and the possible impact of climate change. We used the PRISMA protocol to systematically search the literature, and the “vote‐counting” method to count positive, null or negative responses of the rodents. At the population level, rodent density and abundance responded positively to precipitation, while biomass responded negatively and reproduction responded positively to increasing temperature. At the community level, rodent density, biomass and diversity increased after rainfall. El Niño events were positively related to rodent population increases. In contrast, intense storms affected the survival of some species. Rodents with physiological adaptations suited to living in arid areas, for example, the heteromyids, responded positively to precipitation and could suffer fewer negative ecological consequences in the future when exposed to increased temperature and changes in precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and human activities have massively impacted the hydrological cycle. Thus, it is of the greatest concern to examine the effect of climate change on water management, especially at the regional level, to understand the possible future shifts in water supply and water-related crises and support regional water management. Fortunately, there is a high degree of ambiguity in determining the effect of climate change on water requirements. In this paper, the statistical downscaling (SDSM) model is applied to simulate the potential impact of climate on crop water requirements (CWR) by downscaling ET0 in the region of Western Maharashtra, India, for the future periods, viz., the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s, across three meteorological stations (Pune, Rahuri, and Solapur). Four crops, i.e., cotton, soybean, onion, and sugarcane, were selected during the analysis. The Penman-Monteith equation calculates reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0). Furthermore, in conjunction with the crop coefficient (Kc) equation, it calculates crop evapotranspiration (ETc)/CWR. The predictor variables were extracted from the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset for 1961–2000 and the HadCM3 for 1961–2099 under the H3A2 and H3B2 scenarios. The results indicated by SDSM profound good applicability in downscaling due to satisfactory performance during calibration and validation for all three stations. The projected ET0 indicated an increase in mean annual ET0 compared to the present condition during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s. The ET0 would increase for all months (in summer, winter, and pre-monsoon seasons) and decrease from June to September (monsoon season). The estimated future CWR shows variation in the range for cotton (− 0.97 to 2.48%), soybean (− 2.09 to 1.63%), onion (0.49 to 4.62%), and sugarcane (0.05 to 2.86%). The significance of this research lies in its contribution to understanding the potential impacts of climate change at a regional level. This study provides valuable insights into the expected changes in water demand for key crops. The research also manifests implementing an identical methodology for downscaling other environmental parameters using a similar approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With global warming, the frequency, intensity, and period of extreme climates in more areas will probably increase in the twenty first century. However, the impact of climate extremes on forest vulnerability and the mechanisms by which forests adapt to climate extremes are not clear. The eastern Tianshan Mountains, set within the arid and dry region of Central Asia, is very sensitive to climate change. In this paper, the response of Picea schrenkiana and Larix sibirica to climate fluctuations and their stability were analyzed by Pearson's correlation based on the observation of interannual change rates of climate indexes in different periods. Additionally, their ecological adaptability to future climate change was explored by regression analysis of climate factors and a selection of master control factors using the Lasso model. We found that the climate has undergone significant changes, especially the temperature, from 1958 to 2012. Around 1985, various extreme climate indexes had obvious abrupt changes. The research results suggested that: (1) the responses of the two tree species to extreme climate changed significantly after the change in temperature; (2) Schrenk spruce was more sensitive than Siberian larch to extreme climate change; and (3) the resistance of Siberian larch was higher than that of Schrenk spruce when faced with climate disturbance events. These results indicate that extreme climate changes will significantly interfere with the trees radial growth. At the same time, scientific management and maintenance measures are taken for different extreme weather events and different tree species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought seriously endangers the development of agro‐pastoral ecotone in arid and semi‐arid regions. However, drought evolution characteristics of semi‐arid sandy grassland and its drivers are not well understood in the complex climate change context. Thus, in this paper, the revised standardized precipitation evaporation indices on one‐month (SPEI‐1) and growing‐season (SPEI‐6) scale, flash drought and dry spells (DS) were calculated as drought indicators, and the temporal variabilities and meteorological drivers of drought in Horqin Sandy Land during the growing period (April–September) from 2007 to 2021 were studied. The results showed that SPEI‐1 and SPEI‐6 exhibited negative trends and periodic change. This drought aggravation was manifested in increased grades and numbers of drought months. Flash droughts can occur every month during the growing season. And its occurrence was not only positively correlated with all drought events in frequency but also synchronized in time. The increased number of DS showed an asymmetrical shift towards 7‐day‐and‐longer DS. SPEI sensitivity to precipitation (P) was noticeably higher than to atmospheric evapotranspiration demand (AED) at both monthly and growing season scales. SPEI sensitivity to AED was modulated by P amounts, which was higher during low P period. Apart from the amounts of P and AED, their temporal variability also strongly determined how they affect the drought severity. P was also the main driver for flash drought and long DS, but AED with larger amount and higher variability is the reason for their aggravation. Our results demonstrate the complexity of drought intensification in semi‐arid sandy grasslands and highlight the important role of AED anomalies in it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abnormal changes in temperature, precipitation, atmospheric carbon dioxide, or solar radiation are examples of climate change that may affect irrigation water demand. Studies show an increasing trend in the earth's surface temperature, with decreasing trends in rainfall. With most studies focused on predicting the extent of climate change, fewer studies focused on developing appropriate response strategies. This paper aims to propose a systematic approach to identify, analyze, and respond to the risks of climate change on irrigation water in arid regions using the Risk Management process. The compound effect of these risks was analysed using Monte Carlo Simulation, which indicated a 69% loss in crop production due to climate change at a 90% confidence level. The proposed responses to the risks of climate change include strategies to avoid, transfer, mitigate, and/or accept these risks. The study has made three contributions to the state of the art. First, to adopt a well-recognized risk management methodology in climate change studies. Second, to quantify the compound effect of climate change risks on irrigation water in arid regions. Third, to recommend a set of response strategies to help policymakers mitigate the inevitable harmful effect of climate change on irrigation water. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arid region water reservoirs have different characteristics and solutions from humid regions with the most water shortage in the world socio-economically. This paper outlines possible implementation methodologies, procedures and guidance for water storage in natural and artificial reservoirs for better operation and management rules taking into account the impacts of climate change. The literature is full of methodological applications regarding the impact of climate change on the hydro-meteorological records, but the same is not available in reservoirs (surface and underground), which is the scope of this paper. In addition, reservoir structures offer the necessary mitigation and adaptation activities against the effects of climate change to design, construct, maintain, operate or increase their existing capacity. To increase groundwater reservoir capacity in local aquifers, precipitation, associated flooding and flash flooding should be diverted to artificial groundwater recharges through precipitation and surface runoff harvesting activities. Definitions of fully or partially penetrating underground dams are also explained. The real groundwater feeding application is offered from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as arid region representative. Finally, a series of recommendations are presented for the future design and management of reservoirs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contributes to the discussion on climate change impacts, livelihood diversification, and deagrarianization in arid and semi-arid regions. Using the semi-arid region of Guinea as a case study, this paper is the first to discuss the primary factors driving smallholder farmers into artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) in arid and semi-arid regions. Drawing on in-depth interviews and root-cause analysis, we find that increasing climate change impacts 'force' smallholder farmers to switch into artisanal gold mining. Smallholder farming in semi-arid Guinea is largely rainfed and erratic rainfall and increasing temperatures have affected crop production and farmers' income, driving many smallholder farmers into artisanal gold mining to have a more sustainable income. While artisanal gold mining has improved smallholder farmers' socioeconomic conditions, the agriculture exodus has significantly affected crop production, food prices, and rural agriculture labor dynamics. Agroecological, financial, and technical support could improve the adaptive capacity of climate impacted smallholder farmers in arid and semi-arid regions. • Agrarian communities are now transforming into artisanal mining communities due primarily to climate change. • Dry farmlands, low farm productivity, and low farm income are secondary factors that drive farmers into the ASM economy. • Farmers converted to miners to cope with climate change impacts and not necessarily to 'get rich quick'. • Smallholder farmers in semi-arid Guinea lack access to climate adaptive strategies. • Livelihood diversification from farming to ASM affects rural socioeconomics and threatens food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change affects biodiversity patterns, especially in arid and semi-arid regions such as the Mongolian plateau, one of the most ecologically fragile regions in the world. Three dynamic habitat indices (DHIs) were related to the productivity hypothesis and calculated based on FAPAR, including cumulative productivity ( D H I c u m indicates the availability of resources such as food supply and habitat in a year, representing available energy), minimum productivity ( D H I m i n indicates the limitations of food and habitat resources in a year, representing environmental stress), and seasonal productivity ( D H I s e a denotes the change in productivity in a year, representing environmental stability). In this paper, we investigated the distribution pattern of species richness on the Mongolian Plateau based on the productivity hypothesis. We constructed models of the richness of three species (mammals, birds, and amphibians) using DHIs and climate variables to explain patterns of species richness on the Mongolian Plateau. The results revealed that, on the Mongolian plateau, there is a relatively high correlation between DHIs and species richness, especially with D H I c u m (R = 0.59 for mammals, R = 0.73 for birds, and R = 0.58 for amphibians). There was a significant non-linear relationship between DHIs and species richness, as the model predictive power was significantly enhanced with GAM and RF. The inclusion of climate variables significantly improved the explanatory power of various models for the mammal, bird, and amphibian species richness on the Mongolian Plateau, with the best results for RF (0.89, 0.94, and 0.91, respectively). The influence of climate variables on species richness patterns in the importance ranking was higher than that of DHIs. Climate also has an influence on species richness. Vegetation productivity and climatic factors are good determinants of species richness on the Mongolian Plateau and should be carefully considered in future studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Statistical downscaling of General Circulation Models (GCM) simulations is widely used for projecting precipitation at different spatiotemporal scales. However, the downscaling process is linked with different source of uncertainty including structural/parametric uncertainty of the model and output uncertainty. This research proposes a novel framework to assess the parametric uncertainty of downscaling model, and used this framework to assess the performance of different bias correction methods linked to the regression-based statistical downscaling model. The used downscaling framework in the current paper is Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). The conventional bias correction method linked with SDSM is the Variance InFlation method (VIF), this paper substitutes this method with three different bias correction methods including Local Intensity Scaling (LOCI), Power Transformation (PT), and Quantile Mapping (QM) to assess the associated parametric and global uncertainty of each method in different climate by using a new approach. The proposed method is applied to six different stations located in Iran and United States with different climate status. Average Relative Interval Length (ARIL), P-level, and Normalized Uncertainty Efficiency (NUE) are used as uncertainty indicators to evaluate the results. Results represent that in every assessed climate class, LOCI, and PT, work better than conventional VIF in both amount and occurrence modules of SDSM framework. More precisely, LOCI works better in station that has wet summer, while PT performs well in the stations where there is no or very limited precipitation in summer. Substituting LOCI with VIF, result in increasing the value of NUE by at least factor of 3 in occurrence and amount model which means the significant reduction in structural uncertainty. Also applying PT in arid regions improves the NUE indicator at least by factor 2 in occurrence and amount model and by factor 3 in output uncertainty assessment, and results in less parametric and output uncertainty. Results illustrate the important role of bias correction approaches in reducing structural, and output uncertainty and improving the statistical efficiency of the downscaling model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Altay Prefecture, a typical arid region in northwestern China, has experienced the climate transition from warming-drying to warming-wetting since 1980s and has attracted widespread attention. Nonetheless, it is still unclear how climate change has influenced the distribution of vegetation in this region. In this paper, a reaction–diffusion model of the climate–vegetation system is proposed to study the impact of climate change (precipitation, temperature and carbon dioxide concentration) on vegetation patterns in Altay Prefecture. Our results indicate that the tendency of vegetation growth in Altay Prefecture improved gradually from 1985 to 2010. Under the current climate conditions, the increase of precipitation results in the change of vegetation pattern structures, and eventually vegetation coverage tends to be uniform. Moreover, we found that there exists an optimal temperature where the spot vegetation pattern structure remains stable. Furthermore, the increase in carbon dioxide concentration induces vegetation pattern transition. Based on four climate change scenarios of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we used the power law range (PLR) to predict the optimal scenario for the sustainable development of the vegetation ecosystem in Altay Prefecture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the linkages of climate change and desertification, sensitivity to desertification, and the combined effects of these environmental hazards on land productivity. The objective of this study is to investigate the multifaceted nature and impact of climate change and desertification in Babura and identify ways to reduce their impact on the environment. This study applied adjusted MEDALUS methodology (Mediterranean desertification and land use) using ten (10) indicators that affected the study area. Remote sensing and GIS were the main techniques used in indices computation and mapping. Erdas imagine 9.2 software was used for the supervised classification to first achieved categorization of image in land use land cover (LULC) thematic features. Shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM) data using spatial analyst tool in ArcMap (extension of ArcGis 10.3) was used to extract digital elevation model and generated from it slope gradient. The ten indicators were integrated into ArcMap and each weighted from 1 to 2 using weighted overlay in ArcMap; thus, the higher the weighting the higher the sensitivity to land degradation. The ten indicators were categorized into climate, soil, and vegetation indicators based on most significant available parameters quantified and assessed on their perceived influence on desertification. The reclassification of climatic indicators, particularly the areas of high rainfall against the areas of low rainfall, assumed higher weighting indicating higher sensitivity to land degradation. Approximately 48.72% of the study area, with Babura being particularly critical, is highly sensitive to desertification, while most of the study area (676.79–5950.44 m2) consists of areas with very low erosion protection quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rangelands are a key resource present all over the world and cover half of all emerged lands. They are even more important in drylands, where they cover 48% of the total area. Their intensification and the additional pressure added by climate change push these socio-ecological systems towards desertification. Over the last two decades, we have developed and applied System Dynamics (SD) models for the study of Mediterranean grasslands. In addition, we have designed procedures and analysis tools, such as global sensitivity analysis, stability analysis condition, or risk analysis, to detect the main drivers of these socio-ecological systems and provide indicators about their long-term sustainability. This paper reviews these works, their scientific background, and the most relevant conclusions, including purely technical and rangeland-related ones, as well as our experience as systemic modelers in a world driven by field specialists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic disturbances and climate change are expected to reorganize biodiversity on multiple ecological levels from populations to ecosystems, especially in arid and semiarid regions due to environmental filtering imposed by water stress. This paper examines the individual and combined effects of chronic anthropogenic disturbance and increased aridity on the structure of fruit-feeding butterfly assemblages in a human-modified landscape of Caatinga dry forest, in the northeast of Brazil. Butterflies were recorded monthly across old-growth forest stands and their assemblages were described in terms of taxonomic and functional community-level attributes confronted to different levels of chronic disturbance and aridity. Butterfly assemblages were species-poor but had high species replacement (turnover) along both the chronic disturbance and aridity gradients. We observed a negative effect of aridity on alpha and beta diversity of butterfly assemblages. Butterfly assemblages across forest stands exposed to high levels of chronic disturbance and aridity had a nested structure. Functional diversity (Rao's Q) and the community-weighted means (CWM) of ocellus-bearing species and monocot-feeding larvae were negatively and positively affected by increased aridity and chronic disturbance, respectively. Our findings suggest that aridity and its combination with chronic disturbance have a drastic effect on the structure of butterfly assemblages in the Caatinga dry forest. These findings highlight that rainfall and chronic disturbances as major drivers of biological reorganization in human-modified landscapes. As aridity increases, Caatinga tends to support taxonomically and functionally impoverished and highly distorted assemblages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Livestock grazing modifies and even degrades arid ecosystems, which threatens the sustainability of livestock farming itself. It is essential to learn more about the effects of grazing on vegetation and soil to design strategies to avoid desertification, perhaps the most serious problem faced by drylands. In this paper, we evaluate the changes in the functional traits of the plant community and the biological soil crust induced by the intensification of grazing in Patagonian ecosystems. This description, together with changes in diversity, plant composition, and ecosystem functioning, can help us to understand the mechanisms by which the intensification of sheep grazing could degrade arid ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drylands are diverse and dynamic ecosystems that have been occupied by humans throughout the Holocene. Nonetheless, drylands are often conceived of as marginal, rare, and inimical to human livelihoods. This Special Issue interrogates the interactions between humans and arid and aridifying environments to investigate how drylands offer unique risks and opportunities to their resilient inhabitants. This article introduces the 11 environmental archeology papers and 1 discussion paper in this Special Issue, the proceedings of a 2021 virtual workshop on the topics of risk and resilience. Each contribution explores a different geographic and chronological context around the globe. We also introduce three subthemes of this Special Issue: "Multi-Scalar Analysis," "Abundance and Diversity," and "Cascading Risks." Collectively, a key strength of the case studies in this volume is the range of environmental archeology methods and datasets that they showcase. These authors draw out details within a multi-scalar understanding of risk and risk perception in the particular contexts in which they work. As we face compounding contemporary risks associated with the global impacts of a changing climate, it is more important than ever to recognize the range of human relationships with aridification, and the dynamic, localized socio-environmental histories of drylands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigating the spatio‐temporal patterns of desertification and its driving mechanisms is crucial for efforts to improve the ecology and environment and combat desertification. Based on meteorological and satellite remote sensing data, this paper analyzed the dynamic characteristics of desertification in the Hexi region of arid and semiarid land in Northwest China from 2000 to 2018 using a dimidiate pixel model; revealed the relationship between desertification evolution characteristics and climatic variations and anthropogenic events based on the change characteristics of net primary productivity (NPP); and then clarified the response of desertification to climatic variations and anthropogenic events using a geodetector model. Outcomes show that: (1) overall desertification in Hexi region is at a serious level, but during the study period, severe desertification decreased, mainly concentrated in the east and southwest, and non‐desertification increased, mainly near the Qilian Mountains and Shule River basin; (2) there were both spatial and temporal dynamics during the study period, with severe desertification decreasing by 11% and moderate, light, and non‐desertification increasing by 3%, 5%, and 3% respectively; (3) during 2000–2005, human activities, climate change, and their joint contribution to desertification reversal were similar, i.e., 23%, 40%, and 36%, and the former two contributed equally to desertification expansion, 38% and 41%, respectively; climate change predominated in desertification reversal in 2005–2010 and 2015–2018, while human activities predominated in desertification expansion; human activities predominated in desertification reversal and climate change predominated in desertification expansion in 2010–2015. This research can provide a theoretical basis and technical support for ecological and environmental management and sustainable socio‐economic development in arid and semiarid regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lakes are sensitive indicators of climatic change and are important resources for regional economic development. In recent years, there have been many studies related to the changes in lake area and lake volume. However, further studies are still required to understand the responses of lakes to climatic change and human activities. This paper utilizes lakes in the Qaidam Basin, an inland arid region of China, as the object of study and investigates the characteristics of variability in lake changes and its driving forces by combining multi-source remote sensing, model simulations and historical data. We first analyzed the spatiotemporal pattern of climatic change in the basin under the background of global warming. The response of lake water volume to climatic change and human activities is then discussed. Finally, the main factors that affect the change in lake water volume in different regions of the basin are delineated. The water volume of lakes in the Qaidam Basin increased by 3.81 km3 from 1990 to 2020. Particularly since the 21st century, the water volume of lakes has increased rapidly, and an increasingly abrupt change appeared around 2015. The increases in precipitation and vegetation area are the main and secondary factors that led to the increase in total lake water volume in the basin, respectively. However, the main influencing factors still vary in different regions. The impact of air temperature, evaporation, and changes in the cropland area on the change in lake water volume is generally not obvious. Human activities, such as the development of salt lakes and damming, have led to substantial changes in the spatial pattern of lakes in the middle of the basin and are associated with the replacement, genesis, and disappearance of Yiliping Lake, Yahu Lake and West Taijinar Lake, respectively. This study reveals the changing characteristics of climate and lake water volume in inland arid basins in China, which are highly important to understand the responses of lakes to climatic change and human activities, and provides a scientific basis for the rational development and utilization of lake resources in arid basins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Irrigation & Drainage is the property of Journal of Irrigation & Drainage Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper analyzes the behavior of drought in the face of the impact of climate change and groundwater quality and its implications for agricultural production in a semi-arid area of northeastern Mexico. The pluviometric information of two stations from 1961 to 2020 was analyzed, and the Standardized Precipitation Index was applied in the spring–summer period (SPI-6). Twenty-five samples from the Ahualulco aquifer were collected and analyzed, to which quality indices for agricultural use were applied. The results show that in the last 20 years there have been mild to moderate droughts, which have considerably affected rainfed farmers. The area under irrigation is affected by salinity conditions as the water goes from medium to high conductivities and low to medium sodicity, which indicates a medium sodicity risk but an excessive salinity risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of climate change in future streamflow is still very uncertain, especially over semi-arid regions. However, part of this uncertainty can be offset by correcting systematic climate models' bias. This paper tries to assess how the choice of a bias correction method may impact future streamflow of the Cheliff-Mactaa-Tafna (CMT) rivers. First, three correction methods (quantile mapping (QM), quantile delta mapping (QDM), and scaled distribution mapping (SDM)) were applied to an ensemble of future precipitation and temperature coming from CORDEX-Africa, which uses two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Then, the Zygos model was used to convert the corrected time series into streamflow. Interestingly, the findings showed an agreement between the three methods that revealed a decline in future streamflow up to [−42 to −62%] in autumn, [+31% to −11%] in winter, [−23% to −39%] in spring, and [−23% to −41%] in summer. The rate of decrease was largest when using QM-corrected model outputs, followed by the raw model, the SDM-corrected model, and finally, the QDM-corrected model outputs. As expected, the RCP presents the largest decline especially by the end of the 21st Century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dates are a traditional and important part of the sustainable arid food system. As their popularity is growing worldwide, along with global climate change, there is an increasing need for a better understanding of the environmental aspects of the date production system. Israel is one of the major sources of the Medjool variety of dates. We use an environmental "footprint family" framework to analyze Medjool date production, and direct and indirect environmental interactions, and identify positive and negative hotspots. The research focuses on the Israeli Arava desert region. We found that producing 1 ton of marketable dates has an average material footprint of 1550 kg, a land footprint of 1 m2, and a water footprint of 2450 m3, which leads to 990 kg of solid waste and a carbon footprint of 4820 kg of CO2eq. The cultivation stage was responsible for most of the footprints, mainly due to the direct and indirect consequences of fertilizer usage and water production and intake. The significant differences between the plantations were traced back to their varying mix of palms' age and even more to the human factor and the cultivation methods of individual farmers. We suggest that the environmental footprint of dates can be reduced by adopting improved agricultural methods, such as lower-impact fertilizers and renewable energy. This paper is one of the first to embrace a systematic approach to analyzing dates grown in a desert area. These data can bridge the knowledge gap over the unique food system and crop and, therefore, can provide an initial data body for future research, policy-makers, and farmers as means to advance more efficient, less-intensive use of resources while enhancing production in arid areas and support local and global food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impact started to play significant role since the last three decades almost in every aspects of life especially on meteorological and climatological events and their impacts on water resources, which are managed by engineering structures. Its effects on hydro-meteorological data are assessed by means of available methodologies, but the climate change impact of engineering water structures (dams, culverts, channels, wells, highways and their side drainages, levees, etc.) are not treated equally. This paper provides the review of the necessary adaptation, combat and mitigation activities against the climate change for protection, construction or augmentation of the engineering water structures design capacity. Additionally, land use practices and geomorphological changes also trigger the climate changes on the engineering water structures. The main aim of this paper is to present the impact of such changes on the engineering water structure capacity, operation and maintenance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Agricultural & Marine Sciences (JAMS) is the property of Sultan Qaboos University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Vertical integration, which creates strategic linkages between national and sub-national levels, is being promoted as important for climate change adaptation. Decentralisation, which transfers authority and responsibility to lower levels of organisation, serves a similar purpose and has been in place for a number of decades. Based on four case studies in semi-arid regions in Africa and India, this paper argues that vertical integration for climate change adaptation should reflect on lessons from decentralisation related to governing natural resources, particularly in the water sector. The paper focuses on participation and flexibility, two central components of climate change adaptation, and considers how decentralisation has enhanced or undermined these. The findings suggest that vertical integration for adaptation will be strengthened if a number of lessons are considered, namely (i) actively seek equitable representation from marginal and diverse local groups drawing on both formal and informal participation structures, (ii) assess and address capacity deficits that undermine flexibility and adaptive responses, especially within lower levels of government, and (iii) use hybrid modes of governance that include government, intermediaries and diverse local actors through both formal and informal institutions to improve bottom-up engagement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pasturelands are globally extensive, sensitive to climate, and support livestock production systems that provide an essential source of food in many parts of the world. In this paper, we integrate information from remote sensing, global climate, and land use databases to improve understanding of the resilience and resistance of this ecologically vulnerable and societally critical land use. To characterize the effect of climate on pastureland productivity at global scale, we analyze the relationship between satellite‐derived enhanced vegetation index data from MODIS and gridded precipitation data from CHIRPS at 3‐ and 6‐month time lags. To account for the effects of different production systems, we stratify our analysis by agroecological zones and by rangeland versus mixed crop‐livestock systems. Results show that 14.5% of global pasturelands experienced statistically significant greening or browning trends over the 15‐year study period, with the majority of these locations showing greening. In arid ecosystems, precipitation and lagged vegetation index anomalies explain up to 69% of variation in vegetation productivity in both crop‐livestock and rangeland‐based production systems. Livestock production systems in Australia are least resistant to contemporaneous and short‐term precipitation anomalies, while arid livestock production systems in Latin America are least resilient to short‐term vegetation greenness anomalies. Because many arid regions of the world are projected to experience decreased total precipitation and increased precipitation variability in the coming decades, improved understanding regarding the sensitivity of pasturelands to the joint effects of climate change and livestock production systems is required to support sustainable land management in global pasturelands. Plain Language Summary: Pastures, which provide food for livestock, are the most extensive land use on the planet, and their productivity depends on the timing and amount of rainfall they receive. In this paper, we use data on vegetation productivity, rainfall, and land use in order to determine the ability of pastures to remain unaffected by a disturbance and the time required for pastures to recover following a disturbance. To determine the effects of rainfall on pastures, we analyze the relationship between productivity and rainfall at 3‐ and 6‐month time intervals. We also take into account pasture management and whether pastures are located in dry or humid areas of the world. In dry regions, rain from the current season, rain from the last two seasons, and vegetation productivity from the previous growing season explain nearly 70% of current season vegetation productivity. Pastures in Australia are least capable of withstanding rainfall deficits, while pastures in Latin America recover more slowly after drought compared to other regions. Dry regions of the world are predicted to receive less rain less regularly in the coming decades, so improved understanding of the sensitivity of pastures to expected changes in rainfall will help support sustainable management of global pastures. Key Points: In Australia, pasturelands have both low resistance and low resilience relative to other regions across the worldSouthern South America has the lowest resilience globally, which is indicative of slow vegetation recovery after a disturbanceA total of 14.5% of global pasturelands experienced greening or browning trends, with the majority of these locations showing greening [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the drivers of climate-resilient seeds adoption among farm households and their corresponding spatial effects on farmers' neighbours adoption decisions in the semi-arid regions of Ghana, where the impacts of climate change on agriculture are marked. A spatial model was applied to a dataset elicited from farm households in addressing the research objective. The findings indicate the presence of peer or neighbourhood effects in the adoption and diffusion process. The findings also reveal that the socio-economic characteristics of the farm households, plot characteristics, drought condition and the source of information about the climate-resilient seeds influence farmers' adoption and information diffusion. Finally, the findings imply that drought condition and information from model farmers generate the highest spatial spillover effects on farmers' neighbours decisions to adopt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compound droughts and heatwaves (CDHWs) are likely to cause more severe natural disasters than a single extreme event, and they have been exacerbated by rapid global warming. Based on high-resolution grid data, this study combines the daily-scale ERA5-Land dataset and the monthly-scale SPEI dataset with multiple indicators to analyze CDHWs. We calculated and analyzed the temporal and spatial modal distribution of CDHWs in Central Asia from 1981 to 2018, and in this paper, we discuss the sequence relationship between drought events, heatwave events, and CDHWs. The results show that the number of CDHWs in the study region have increased over time and expanded in terms of area, especially in eastern and southwestern Central Asia. The tsum (total frequency of CDHWs) was 0.5 times higher than the total heatwave frequency and it increased at a rate of 0.17/yr. The maximum duration of tmax (maximum duration of CDHWs in days) was 17 days. Furthermore, the occurrence rate of tmax was 96.67%, and the AH (CDHWs' accumulated heat) had a rate of 97.78%, which, upon examination of the spatial trend pattern, accounted for the largest increase in terms of area. We also found that the TAH (CDHWs' average temperature anomalies, SPEI < −0.5) shows obvious seasonality, with the increases in winter and spring being significantly greater than the increases in summer and autumn. The intensity of the CDHWs was stronger than that of a single extreme event, the temperature anomaly was higher than the average of 0.4–0.8 °C, and there was a north–south spatial pattern across the study region. In eastern and northwestern Central Asia, the AH and heatwaves (SPEI < −0.5) increased by 15–30 times per year on average. During the transition from the base period to the reference period, CDHWs increased by 25%, and the number of dry days prior to the CDHWs decreased by 7.35 days. The conclusion of our study can provide a theoretical basis for coping with climate change in arid zones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper contributes to the growing literature highlighting the significance of assessing risk and vulnerability, micro-level perceptions and adaptation decision-making in building resilience of farm communities to climate change in dryland region of India. To select a region for grassroots enquiry, spatial differential in risk to climate change was assessed in Rajasthan, using IPCC AR5 framework. Among the highly vulnerable and risky districts, Bikaner district was selected for elicitation of micro-level imperatives. Rising atmospheric temperature, inter-seasonal displacements of rainfall and recurrence of extreme events were perceived by the farmers resulting in resource degradation, production risks and erosion of households' socio-economic dynamics. As risk preventive measures, suitable adjustment in agricultural practices, natural resource management, shift to off-farm activities and other relief measures were adopted by the farmers. Farmer's choice of adaptation was influenced by several climatic, socio-economic and infrastructural & institutional factors in varying degree. Moreover, several financial, economic, infrastructural and informational bottlenecks to adaptations were reported during household survey and FGDs. The results suggest that capturing grassroots evidence is crucial for directing locally tailored adaptation strategies, along with the improving deficiencies in the developmental pathways for climate-resilient agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Iran is a developing country with arid and semiarid regions. Poor management of water resources combined with the effects of climate change is leading to the drying of several rivers and wetlands. Several planned water development projects, primarily for agricultural expansion, will be implemented in the coming years which could worsen impacts on vulnerable aquatic ecosystems. Proper water resources management is essential to meet present and future residential, environmental, industrial, and agricultural demands in semiarid regions. This paper presents projections of how the availability of water resources will change in the Karkheh river basin of Iran for the period 2010-2059 employing sustainability criteria in the form of time-based reliability, volumetric reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability. This paper's results show that consideration of environmental receptors as a stakeholder of water use places limitations on agricultural development within the Karkheh river basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the warming–wetting trend in the arid region of Northwest China has attracted widespread attention. To reveal whether this phenomenon exists in the whole Pan-Central-Asia arid region, this paper adopts the latest monthly gridded dataset of the Climate Research Unit Time Series version 4.05 (CRU TS v4.05) and the multi-model ensemble data of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CIMP6) for discussion from multiple perspectives. The results show that the Pan-Central-Asia arid region has been getting warmer and wetter in the last 80 years. Since the turn of the 21st century, there has been an apparent slowdown in the regional wetting trend despite the acceleration of precipitation increase, mainly caused by the growth in evapotranspiration potential. The interannual scale dominates the precipitation change, including significant quasi-three-year and quasi-six-year cycles. The interannual variability in precipitation is mainly affected by the change in the phases of Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), while long-term variation dominates the temperature change, which is significantly related to the variations in the Arctic oscillation (AO). Thus, future research and predictions of regional precipitation should focus on the PDO variations, followed by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), whereas for research on, and predictions of, temperature, the effect of AO variations should be emphasized. Except for a few regions in Central-Eastern Mongolia and Central Kazakhstan, precipitation levels in most parts of the Pan-Central-Asia region have been increasing. The regional temperature exhibits a distribution pattern which decreases from northwest to southeast. The increase in precipitation in the Pan-Central-Asia arid region alleviates the drought in most regions, including most of Northwest China. However, the arid and semi-arid climate patterns in this region have not changed. The warming–wetting trend will significantly accelerate in medium-emissions scenarios in the next 80 years. Although the increase in precipitation may be a positive aspect of this trend, the rise in potential evapotranspiration caused by sharp warming may cause greater challenges to the regional climate and ecological environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Practice social of people is the key to produce space and give a possibility to maintain thermal comfort and energy efficiency. The main objective of this research is to adapt the traditional strategies in the architecture actual, to achieved a thermal comfort and improve on reducing cooling load through the using of vernacular gait. Today, it is necessary to practice these systems in the current or conventional architecture of household. The study is especially for arid cities namely the region of Saoura, in the hot and dry climatic zone in Algeria, considered for this study. Two main factors is considered such as design and urban where taken into account in order to select the appropriate and specific passive cooling strategy. The results show that the passive cooling strategy of courtyard would be appropriate for arid regions, however a high thermal mass would be suitable for construction. In conclusion, this work made it possible to choose a suitable passive cooling strategy for all types of construction in hot and dry climates. Finally, this paper puts forward a set of recommendations to improve the passive design of future buildings in hot and arid climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The livestock production system is considered equally sensitive to climate change as that of core agriculture system and at the same time livestock itself is also contributing to the phenomenon. The present paper attempts to analyze the sensitivity of livestock productivity in rainfed regions to climatic variability, significance of climate change with respect to Indian livestock and mitigation options and leverage points in such a scenario. The sensitivity of livestock productivity was examined by using district level data of milk productivity of cow as well as buffalo for the year 1992 and 1997 for 100 districts which was regressed on important weather variables. The analysis shows that weather variables like rainfall and temperature do significantly influence the milk productivity of animals in rainfed regions. Increased climatic variability due to changing climate is likely to negatively influence the livestock productivity. Based on analysis and stakeholders consultation the paper suggests appropriate adaptation strategies particularly focusing on mitigating feed scarcity situations arising due to climatic variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Caspian Sea level (CSL) is strongly sensitive to climate‐induced changes in its water balance components, especially evaporation from its surface as the main expenditure component of the Caspian Sea's (CS) water budget. Projecting evaporation and determining associated uncertainties obtained from such studies are critical for reliably predicting future CSL fluctuations and developing mitigation and adaptation strategies. This paper studies the projected changes in evaporation from the CS using 18 global climate models (GCMs) from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and Meyer's semi‐empirical formula. Future evaporation projections are constructed employing a weighted combination of the top‐ranked GCMs, including all ensemble members of selected individual models in a probabilistic framework. This study estimates late 21st century median evaporation of 945, 1016, 1105 and 1173 mm under the low‐emission, medium‐emission, medium‐to‐high emission and high‐emission scenarios, respectively. The weighted multimodel ensemble suggests CS's annual mean evaporation is projected to substantially increase by 3.9%, 13.2%, 20% and 27.9% under SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5, respectively, for the late 21st century against the reference period. According to the spatial distribution of evaporation, arid eastern regions of CS experience higher evaporation than semi‐arid western and southwestern temperate regions. Additionally, the northwestern continental regions experience the least evaporation over the CS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the paper, the aridity is defined on the basis of four climate indices: De Martonne's index of aridity, Lang's Rain Factor and Gračanin's Rain factor for the vegetation period and hydrothermal coefficient of Seljaninov. While the annual value of the drought index (IDM) shows humid characteristics, the monthly values show the variability of the conditions. The summer months (July and August) are classified as semi-arid months, while the winter months (December- February) are extremely humid. The spatial distribution of the isoarids indicates that the northern part of the basin has the characteristics of a semiarid climate, while the southeastern parts are more humid. The analysis of mean annual values of the drought index indicates in semiarid conditions (1990 and 2000), but also the humid conditions (2005 and 2009). A positive linear trend indicates that there is a tendency towards humid conditions. The significance test confirms the existence of a statistically significant trend. During the vegetation period, semi-arid conditions are present (July- August). April is slightly humid, and October is moderately arid. The Lang's Rain Factor (KFg) characterizes basin climate as semiarid, while the Gračanin rain factor for the vegetation period (KFm) indicates a moisture deficit in the summer months. Hydrothermal coefficient Seljaninova (HTC) indicates a lack of moisture in July and August. Vegetation period is characterized as insufficiently humid. Irrigation is one of the most important measures for solving drought problems, since the yield varies from year to year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The supply of raw water to the inhabitants of metropolises is not a trivial problem, and involves many challenges, both in terms of the quantity and quality of this water. When these metropolises are located in semiarid regions, this challenge takes on enormous proportions, and in many situations, there are no sustainable solutions, especially in times of global climate change. One hypothesis to try to mitigate this problem in coastal cities is the underwater adduction of rivers. The objective of this paper was to make the abstraction of drinking water in the mouths of great rivers near semi-arid regions. This water would be led by a pipeline below the water level and would follow the route of the seacoast, where the energy to move the water would be supplied by an axial hydraulic pump embedded in the pipeline by water-cooled electric motors driven by the energy generated from offshore wind turbines. Estimates have been made for the four metropolises in semi-arid regions: Fortaleza-Brazil, Dalian-China, Tel Aviv-Israel, and Gaza-Palestine, where it was possible to calculate economic viability through the Present Worth Value, the internal rate of return, and payback. The results indicated that Fortaleza had economic viability under restrictions. Dalian proved the ideal result. Tel Aviv and Gaza both had great economic viability, but only if Egypt agreed to supply water from the Nile. This paper proved that the management of the water supply for human consumption through the underwater adduction of rivers could be achieved with real clearance for any deficits in the volume of water that due to global climate change are becoming more frequent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geographical location of Iran in arid and semi-arid regions has strongly affected its food security, water resources and weather- and climate-related extreme events due to climate change. Global warming, on average, increases precipitation on Earth by increasing evaporation from the oceanic surface that enters the atmosphere, but the response of the West Asian region to global warming is generally a decrease in precipitation. Some studies have confirmed a decrease in the average precipitatiomn of Iran with an increase of precipitation in the south and southeast of the country. They also confirmed that the largest decrease in the precipitation of Iran occurs in the Zagros region. To this end, in this study, an overview of possible changes in precipitation trends in 43 stations of Iran is presented. To achieve the goals of the paper, the data of four Earth System Models from CMIP6 models, including MIROC6, FGOALS_g3, BCC-CSM2-MR and ACCESS-ESM1-5 were used. The precipitation output of the selected models has been statistically downscaled using CMHyd software for 43 synoptic stations over Iran. Observational period of 1985-2014 and the next three 25-year periods as the near future 2020-2026, the mid future 2075-2051 and the far future 2100-2076 were considered as study periods. Future changes in precipitation under three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2- 4.5 and SSP5-8.5 were estimated. During the downscaling process, the Classius-Clapiron (CC) rate was applied to increase the trend of heavy rainfall. The air holding capacity is controlled by the Clausius-Clapiron relation, which is the water vapour holding capacity of the air at 7%/oC, the so-called Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) rate (bellow equation).... Since the maximum temperature increase in the country was considered 10 degrees Celsius based on the worst possible scenario (SSP5-8.5), so all severe precipitation events were projected that were above the threshold of 130% compared to the normal period that were reduced to 130% of its normal amount. The results showed that future rainfall changes were not significant in about 78% of the stations. The increase and decrease of rainfall were significant in 19% and 3% of the stations, respectively. The largest increase in precipitation will occur in the south-southeast and the largest decrease will occur in the central Zagros area. The average rainfall of the country will increase by 0.4% annually (with a uncertainty range of 14%). On a seasonal scale, precipitation changes in spring, summer, autumn and winter were estimated to be + 15.2, -11, -6 and +3.5, respectively. Although a 15.2% increase in precipitation is projected for spring, the range of uncertainty with 81.9% indicates a lack of confidence in future precipitation estimates of spring season. The maximum uncertainty is related to the spring rains, which shows that the rains of this season are becoming more and more distrustful. Under warming conditions, more spring rainfall increases will occur. In summer, in the near future, summer rains tend to increase and then decrease with more level of Global Warming. After spring, most uncertainty is related to summer precipitation. The autumn precipitation tends to be less than normal with lower amount of uncertainty, although its decrease is not significant. The small range of the autumn rainfall uncertainty chart indicates the agreement of different model-scenarios in projection of autumn rainfall. Winter rainfall projection does not have significant uncertainty and almost all modelscenarios agree on the relatively low trend of rainfall increase. In this season, under higher amount of Global Warming, the precipitation increases and the amplitude of uncertainty also increases. Among the next three periods, the lowest and highest range of uncertainty in the annual changes of precipitation in the first and last decade of the present century will occur with the range of changes of 14 and 29.1%, respectively. The lowest and highest amplitude of uncertainty on the seasonal scale with 3.6 and 81.9 are estimated in winter (near future) and spring (far future), respectively. This situation indicates that in the future most precipitation fluctuations will occur in the spring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]