Search

Making the most of the rapidly increasing population of gravitational-wave detections of black hole (BH) and neutron star (NS) mergers requires comparing observations with population synthesis predictions. In this work, we investigate the combined impact from the key uncertainties in population synthesis modelling of the isolated binary evolution channel: the physical processes in massive binary-star evolution and the star formation history as a function of metallicity, Z , and redshift z , |$\mathcal {S}(Z,z)$|⁠. Considering these uncertainties, we create 560 different publicly available model realizations and calculate the rate and distribution characteristics of detectable BHBH, BHNS, and NSNS mergers. We find that our stellar evolution and |$\mathcal {S}(Z,z)$| variations can combined impact the predicted intrinsic and detectable merger rates by factors in the range 102–104. We find that BHBH rates are dominantly impacted by |$\mathcal {S}(Z,z)$| variations, NSNS rates by stellar evolution variations and BHNS rates by both. We then consider the combined impact from all uncertainties considered in this work on the detectable mass distribution shapes (chirp mass, individual masses, and mass ratio). We find that the BHNS mass distributions are predominantly impacted by massive binary-star evolution changes. For BHBH and NSNS, we find that both uncertainties are important. We also find that the shape of the delay time and birth metallicity distributions are typically dominated by the choice of |$\mathcal {S}(Z,z)$| for BHBH, BHNS, and NSNS. We identify several examples of robust features in the mass distributions predicted by all 560 models, such that we expect more than 95 per cent of BHBH detections to contain a BH |$\gtrsim 8\, \rm {M}_{\odot }$| and have mass ratios ≲ 4. Our work demonstrates that it is essential to consider a wide range of allowed models to study double compact object merger rates and properties. Conversely, larger observed samples could allow us to decipher currently unconstrained stages of stellar and binary evolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Low-metallicity stars give rise to unique spectacular transients and are of immense interest for understanding stellar evolution. Their importance has only grown further with the recent detections of mergers of stellar mass black holes that likely originate mainly from low-metallicity progenitor systems. Moreover, the formation of low-metallicity stars is intricately linked to galaxy evolution, in particular to early enrichment and to later accretion and mixing of lower metallicity gas. Because low-metallicity stars are difficult to observe directly, cosmological simulations are crucial for understanding their formation. Here, we quantify the rates and locations of low-metallicity star formation using the high-resolution TNG50 magnetohydrodynamical cosmological simulation, and we examine where low-metallicity stars end up at z  = 0. We find that |$20{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$| of stars with |$Z_*\lt 0.1\, \mathrm{Z_\odot }$| form after z  = 2, and that such stars are still forming in galaxies of all masses at z  = 0 today. Moreover, most low-metallicity stars at z  = 0 reside in massive galaxies. We analyse the radial distribution of low-metallicity star formation and discuss the curious case of seven galaxies in TNG50 that form stars from primordial gas even at z  = 0. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]