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the aim of this paper is to estimate using monthly data the influence of the Mexican Stock Market in the nominal Exchange Rate from 1993 to 2022. We conducted an Exploratory Data Analysis to identify the most important correlations of the following monetary variables: 28-day Mexican Debt bills/ (T-Bill), interest rates, inflation, and Stock Exchange Market both from Mexico and from the USA respectively. We then resorted to a VAR model to indentify which of these variables determined changes in Mexico´s nominal Exchange Rate more significantly. During the period in question the model showed, that Exchange Rate variations were driven by the Mexican Stock Exchange Market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the US Treasury Bills. The model also pointed out that variations in Mexican Stock Market were determined by the Mexican Stock Market itself, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the US Treasury Bills (T-Bills). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We empirically assess the dynamic linkages among sovereign bond yield spreads (both short- and long-term) and monetary policy rates/spreads during the Eurozone's sovereign and banking crises in the post-2008 period when unconventional monetary policy replaced conventional policy. Our focus is on two subperiods, the crisis period (30 November 2009 to 25 July 2012) and the tranquil period (26 July 2012 to 30 April 2014). For the first subperiod, we noted significant spillovers from the overnight interest spreads spread to almost all sovereign bond yield spreads, at both the mean and volatility levels. Thus, during that period expectations on monetary surprises led bond spreads and their corresponding volatilities compared to the tranquil period, regardless of the bond yields maturities. Overall, we infer that monetary policy and sovereign risk were highly linked during the crisis period and thus, the interest-rate monetary policy transmission mechanism was effective in reducing these yield spreads. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term nominal interest rates are surprisingly sensitive to high-frequency (daily or monthly) movements in short-term rates. Since 2000, this high-frequency sensitivity has grown even stronger in U.S. data. By contrast, the association between low-frequency changes (at 6- or 12-month horizons) in long- and short-term rates, which was also strong before 2000, has weakened substantially. This puzzling post-2000 pattern arises because increases in short rates temporarily raise the term premium component of long-term yields, leading long rates to temporarily overreact to changes in short rates. The frequency-dependent excess sensitivity of long-term rates that we observe in recent years is best understood using a model in which (i) declines in short rates trigger "rate-amplifying" shifts in investor demand for long-term bonds, and (ii) the arbitrage response to these demand shifts is both limited and slow. We study, theoretically and empirically, how such rate-amplifying demand can be traced to mortgage-refinancing activity, investors who extrapolate recent changes in short rates, and investors who "reach for yield" when short rates fall. We discuss the implications of our findings for the validity of event study methodologies and the transmission of monetary policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study aims to investigate the impact of interest rates, the underlying asset and investment experience on the investment behavior of Japanese retail investors toward structured products (SPs). Design/methodology/approach: Three treatments are constructed through internet-based survey experiments: interest rate, underlying asset framing and investment experience treatments. The interest rate treatment includes high- and low-interest rate environments. The underlying asset framing treatment includes equity and foreign exchange rates for the SP. The investment experience treatment includes experienced and inexperienced respondents for SPs. Findings: The main finding of this study concerns the effect of the interaction between low-interest rates and investment experience. Specifically, SP-experienced investors tend to choose SPs in a low-interest rate environment and prefer equity-linked SPs, even though such SPs are overpriced. This finding is useful for financial regulators in formulating policies that protect retail SP investors in low-interest rate environments worldwide. Originality/value: This study is the first to measure the sensitivities of investment behavior regarding the relative attractiveness of SPs to low-risk straight bonds, given interest rates, the underlying asset and investment experience. It provides evidence to support the development of SP regulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To signal monetary policies and market expectations, we apply a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model, aiming to analyse the expectations hypothesis of term structure (EHTS), persistence in the Euro OverNight Index Average (Eonia) spread and permanent-transitory decomposition using a novel approach. We use a monthly frequency sample for the 3-month Euribor rate and Eonia rate, covering the period from January 1999 to February 2019. The results obtained confirm the EHTS and show evidence of a high persistence of the spread, which means that shocks may impede effectiveness in monetary policy and that the European Central Bank (ECB) loses control over interest rates. Additionally, according to permanent-transitory decomposition, we determine that the Eonia rate has a permanent component and thus dominates the common trend in the cointegration system. In sum, if the ECB wants to keep the interbank market interest rates under control, it must contemplate the evolution of the Eonia rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose -- This paper aims to examine the effect of both inflation rate and interest rate on stock prices using quarterly data on non-financial firms listed in DJIA30 and NASDAQ100 for the period 1999-2016. The stock duration model is used to measure the sensitivity in variations in inflation rates and interest rates on stock prices. Design/methodology/approach -- The authors use standard statistical tools that include Johansen cointegration test, linearity, normality tests, cointegration regression, Granger causality and vector error correction model. Findings -- The results of panel Johansen cointegration analysis show that cointegration exists between the stock prices, the changes in stock prices due to inflation rates and the changes in stock prices due to real interest rates. The results of cointegration regression show that inflation rates are negatively associated with stock prices, the real interest rates and stock prices are positively associated, changes in real interest rates and inflation rates Granger cause significant changes in stock prices, significant speed of adjustment to long run equilibrium between observed stock prices and real interest rates and significant speed of adjustment to long run equilibrium between changes in stock prices due to real interest rates and changes in inflation rates. Originality/value -- This paper contributes to the empirical literature in three ways. The paper examines the effects of inflation and interest rates on stock prices differently from other related studies by separating inflation from real interest rates. The paper examines the causality between stock prices, interest and inflation rates. This paper offers significant updated validity to extended literature that a negative association exists between stock prices and inflation rates. This validity can be considered as an existence a theory of stock prices, inflation rates and interest rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the term structure of real rates, expected inflation, and inflation risk premia. The analysis is based on new estimates of the real term structure derived from the prices of index-linked and nominal debt in the U.K. I find strong evidence to reject both the Fisher Hypothesis and versions of the Expectations Hypothesis for real rates. The estimates also imply the presence of time-varying inflation risk premia throughout the term structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our study uses a multinomial logit model to analyze the concurrent termination experience of adjustable-rate and fixed-rate mortgages. A new set of ARM-specific interactive determinants expands the conventional FRM specification to isolate the unique termination behavior of ARMs. We find that expected rate adjustments and large lifetime caps are positively related to ARM termination probabilities while long adjustment frequencies are inversely related. Caps, both periodic and lifetime, have a secondary, inverse effect on termination probabilities when interest-rate movements exceed cap limits. The model also shows that interest-rate expectations affect FRM terminations more strongly than ARM terminations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose -- This paper aims to describe a robust empirical approach to generating plausible historically based interest rate shocks, which can be applied to any market environment. These interest rate shocks can be readily linked to movements in other key risk factors, and used to measure market risk on institutions with large fixed-income portfolios. Design/methodology/approach -- Using yield curve factorization, we parameterize a time series of historical yield curves and measure interest rate shocks as the historical change in each of the model's factors. We then demonstrate how to add these parameterized shocks to any market environment, while retaining positive rates and plausible credit spreads. Given a set of shocked interest rate curves, joint risk factor movements are calculated based upon historical, reduced form dependencies. Findings -- Our approach is based upon yield curve parameterization and requires a parsimonious yet flexible factorization model. In the process of selecting a model, we evaluate three variants of the Nelson-Siegel approach to yield curve approximation and find that, in the current low interest rate environment, a 5-factor parameterization developed by Björk and Christensen (1999) is best suited for accurately translating historical interest rate movements into plausible, current period shocks. Originality/value -- An accurate measure of market risk can help to inform institutions about the amount of capital needed to withstand a series of adverse market events. A plausible set of shocks is required to ensure market value, and cash flow projections are indicative of meaningful market sensitivities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many credit card issuers charge "fixed rates" that remain the same for three to five years, while the rest charge "variable rates" that are indexed to market rates. The presence of these two distinct rate types forces prices at firms selling an otherwise identical product to move asynchronously; variable rates move one-for-one with the index, while fixed rates stay constant. Empirical and theoretical analysis shows that this pricing structure provides an explanation for the simultaneous (yet seemingly contradictory) existence of high rate-cost margins and aggressive non-price competition for new customers, a phenomenon that existed in the credit card market in the early 1990s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates credit card rate stickiness using a screening model of consumer credit markets. In recent years, while the cost of funds has fallen, credit card rates have remained stubbornly high, spurring legislators to consider imposing interest rate ceilings on credit card rates. The model incorporates asymmetric information between consumers and banks, regarding consumers' future incomes. The unique equilibrium is one of two types: separating (in which low-risk consumers select a collateralized loan and high-risk consumers select a credit card loan), or pooling (in which both types of consumers choose credit card loans). I show that a change in the banks' cost of funds can have an ambiguous effect on the credit card rate, so that the credit card rate need not fall when the cost of funds does. Usury ceilings on credit card rates are detrimental to consumer welfare, so would be counter to their legislative intent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article attempts to account for regional differences in mortgage interest rates during the Populist era. Two conflicting hypotheses dominate the literature on this subject. The first is based on the farmers' complaint that imperfectly competitive market conditions in the American West permitted mortgage lenders to collude in raising interest rates. The second is based on evidence of competition and on the observation that interest rate differentials could in theory reflect the existence of risk premia that varied by region of the country. The focus here is on the development of new forms of financial enterprise, on their implications for market structure and on the statutes adopted by governmental agencies to regulate lending practice. In particular, the author discusses the prevalence of statutory interest rate ceilings imposed in the attempt to regulate mortgage lending. This article presents a model to be used to adjust mortgage interest rates for the risk premium. Ideally, the model would be estimated on a disaggregated data set containing information on the characteristics of individual farms and operators.

Comments on the articles about monetary management which appeared in the March 1980 issue of `The Journal of Economic History.' Assessment of the theory that monetary forces led to price level fluctuations during the nineteenth century; Examination of the monopoly power hypothesis which states that barriers to bank entry resulted to regional interest rate differentials in bank loans in the United States between 1879-1900.