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Although the negative environmental impact of plastic carrier bags has long been known, their use in Europe continues undiminished. Lithuania stands out for its high use and production of plastic bags. Governments and sustainability-driven businesses are taking various measures to reduce the environmental impact. Such measures include strategies to replace conventional plastic bags with paper or bioplastic bags, to reduce plastic bags by encouraging consumers to reuse them, and similar strategies. In contrast to the environmental impact of plastic bags, the socioeconomic effects of strategies to reduce their use have been much less studied in the scientific literature. Therefore, this paper analyses the impact of sustainability practices in the producing and using of carrier bags on Lithuania's gross domestic product (GDP), employment and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study uses the CleanProdLT computable general equilibrium model based on the latest available data for 2020. The model allows for analysis of economy-wide effects by considering cleaner production and more sustainable consumption scenarios at different levels of detail. The results of the analysis show that while the analysed substitution of plastic bags with bioplastic (BioPlastic scenario) or paper bags (PaperBags scenario) has positive socioeconomic impacts, the overall best results can be achieved by reducing their consumption (ConsReduction scenario). In detail, it is estimated that the GDP could increase by EUR 18 million under the PaperBags scenario, by EUR 47 million under the BioPlastic scenario, and by EUR 64 million under the ConsReduction scenario. At the same time, employment increases by 213 jobs, 891 jobs, and 449 jobs, respectively. While the PaperBags and the BioPlastic scenarios reveal increases in GHG emissions of 4.5 ktCO2eq. and 29 ktCO2eq., respectively, the ConsReduction scenario demonstrates a decrease in GHG emissions of 4 ktCO2eq.. These findings suggest that the recent policy decision to charge for plastic bags in supermarkets will have positive environmental and socioeconomic impacts in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Tariff policy has a significant impact on a country's economic progress. The primary objective of this paper was to describe the construction of the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model and then analyze the economic impacts among simulated countries by introducing policy shocks like increases and decreases in tariffs. METHODS: Tariff reductions resulted in an increase in intraregional and interregional trade, which is expected to spur long-term investment and economic growth. To examine the economic implications in multiple ways, this article initially used a tariff removal scenario and subsequently increased the tariff. The relationship between production, activity, elements, and other economic sectors of regions was depicted in this paper using a computational general equilibrium model based on the global trade analysis project model. FINDINGS: The simulation resulted in a lower tariff having a beneficial influence on Korea's economic growth compared to other countries. In the agricultural and processed food sectors, Korea's trade balance improved dramatically, with exports and imports continuing high, while exports and imports in the manufacturing and service sectors declined. In contrast to other countries, Korea's processed food output surged by 198%. Finally, in comparison to other countries, Korea's welfare grew by $ US currency 17.56 billion. On the other hand, the trade balance between China and the United States fell by $US currency 6.25 billion and $US currency 7.95 billion, respectively. Korea's trade balance increased considerably, rising by $ 21.78 billion in US currency. Korea's GDP fell by about 0.8%, while China's dropped by nearly 0.3%. Other countries' gross domestic product changed slightly. CONCLUSION: The influence of various tariff policies on countries is examined in this research paper. Computational general equilibrium analysis of tariff policies in the agriculture, processed food, infrastructure, manufacturing, and service sectors has gotten little attention in the past, so this paper used the Global trade analysis project model to try to fill in the gaps and find the benefits of mutual economic policy among countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coronavirus (COVID‐19) pandemic brought economic recession that affected nations, businesses, and households globally. The severity of this global economic crisis is large and the impact has been asymmetric across socioeconomic groups. We examine the distributional effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic across household types using a specially‐designed model that combines macro (computable general equilibrium) and micro (heterogenous households) approaches. Computable general equilibrium models are able to capture behavioural changes in macroeconomic and sectoral variables but they often lack the rich distributional detail found in microsimulation models. In this paper, we address this limitation by incorporating 10,046 actual households into a computable general equilibrium model to capture the heterogeneity through which the pandemic may influence household behaviour. We find that the income effects are asymmetric across income groups leading to a slight increase in income inequality. The distributional effects are more progressive for non‐wage income sources and uniform for wage income. For younger cohorts, income changes are dominated by employment effects whereas income changes for older cohorts are dominated by changes in capital rentals and government transfers. Spatially, the income effects follow a similar pattern for city and non‐city dwellers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International gas prices have increased rapidly in the last few years. However, the domestic gas price in Indonesia has not been adjusted accordingly, staying relatively low at almost one third of export prices. The low domestic gas price keeps gas producers from selling the gas to the domestic market, so price adjustments are necessary to provide an incentive for selling of gas to the domestic market. This paper explores the possible room for maneuver in making adjustments in gas price, and analyzes the consequences on the Indonesian economy. As in many other developing countries, Indonesian pricing policies have multiple objectives, including generation of government revenue, security of supply for the domestic market, and other social objectives. The present paper examines the macro- and microeconomic impacts of gas price adjustments in both the short and long term. The macro-analysis was conducted by applying the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model; while the microanalysis was evaluated by utilizing the net back value. The present paper contributes to examination of constraints to setting gas prices for various economic sectors that are essential to both national economic development and which are major natural gas consumers. The modelling results show that it is possible to adjust the gas price in Indonesia without negatively affecting the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Ghanaian forestry sector has experienced a paradigm shift toward resilient and sustainable forest management practices through climate change mitigation and adaptation policies. Ghana has acknowledged the urgent need to address these issues via comprehensive policy measures as a nation that is vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. To assess economy-wide impacts, this paper employs a computable general equilibrium with a static specific factor model that can be readily simulated with various vectors of price changes. The model uses a competitive production structure that assumes constant returns, full employment, competitive pricing, and perfect labor mobility across sectors. Factor shares, industry shares, and substitution matrices from 2022 Labor Force Report's data were constructed for four skilled groups (managers, professionals, service, and production) across industry, service, the rest of agriculture, and forestry sectors. Predictions of price increases from climate change mitigation policies compliance were simulated for the long run and short run. Forestry, agricultural, and industrial sectors will enjoy higher prices under a green economy, but these would not translate into higher wages. It is rather capital owners in agriculture and forestry that would benefit. Wage adjustments to the green economy are smaller than what might be expected in a partial equilibrium model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South Africa's National Treasury released its Carbon Tax Policy Paper in May 2013. The paper proposed a R120/tCO2-equiv. levy on coal, gas and petroleum fuels. Here, we model the possible impacts of such a tax on the South African economy using the computable general equilibrium (CGE) 53-sector model of the University of Pretoria's Department of Economics. The model shows that the carbon tax has the capacity to decrease South Africa's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by between 1 900MtCO2-equiv. and 2 300MtCO2-equiv. between 2016 and 2035. The extent of emissions reductions is most sensitive to the rate at which tax exemptions are removed. Recycling of carbon tax revenue reduces the extent of emissions reductions due to the fact that economic growth is supported. The manner in which carbon tax revenue is recycled back into the economy is therefore important in terms of the extent of emissions reductions achieved, but not as significant as the influence of different exemption schedules. The model shows the carbon tax to have a net negative impact on South Africa's gross domestic product (GDP) relative to the baseline under all exemption regimes and all revenue recycling options assessed. The negative impact of the carbon tax on GDP is, however, greatly reduced by the manner in which the tax revenue is recycled. Recycling in the form of a production subsidy for all industries results in the lowest negative impact on GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Government of Indonesia has been promoting the advancement of the biodiesel sector to fulfill its commitment to support clean energy, energy security, and rural development. This paper examines the economic impact of the biodiesel sector using a computable general equilibrium model. Besides analyzing the impacts on the national macroeconomic conditions, other sectors, and household incomes, our model has also included a regional block to capture the impact of the biodiesel mandate on regional growth. Two simulations were performed: (1) fulfillment of the 30% biodiesel blending target (B30 mandate), and (2) Simulation 1 combined with the European Union's biodiesel trade ban resulting in an export reduction of 5.18%. The results show that the two simulations provide positive impacts on macroeconomic variables, including real gross domestic product and real wages. However, the B30 mandate and the combined effect of the EU trade ban still yield an inflationary effect in the short term. They also potentially reduce the production of several agricultural products—such as sugarcane, fruits, vegetables, and soybeans—leading to an increase in food prices. The policy implications highlight that the current B30 mandate and EU ban cannot automatically improve the fuel trade balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the poverty implications of heat stress‐related labor capacity losses based on simulations using a global general equilibrium economic model. Compared with past studies, we use a more precise measurement of heat stress, assign labor capacity losses to specific labor types by sector, and employ an economic model that contains highly disaggregated economic sectors and regions. This model allows us to determine global and regional economic impacts that account for international dependencies. We focus attention on seven West African countries for which we determine the implied changes in real incomes of households near the poverty line. For these countries, we use household microsimulations to determine potential impacts on the poverty headcount. In our results, poverty impacts are heterogeneous across countries and earning sources‐based household strata. A key channel behind this heterogeneity is how loss of labor productivity affects the relative returns to factors of production. We find that unskilled agricultural wages could increase, as loss of productivity in the face of inelastic food demand induces increased labor demand in order to dampen agricultural output losses. In our experiments, even neglecting potential increases in mortality and morbidity, poverty increases range from 2.3% in Cameroon to up to 7.2%–9.2% in Ghana and Nigeria. In one of the seven countries considered, Guinea, poverty sees little change due to the mitigating effects of rising labor wages. Plain Language Summary: With global warming, laborers will experience increasing heat stress and reduced capacity. This will cause economic losses, especially in sectors with high exposure in hot, humid regions. The uneven distributional implications of this, especially on lower‐middle income countries, are of special interest. Here, we assess the poverty implications of heat stress on labor globally but with an emphasis on seven West African countries. To estimate poverty impacts in West Africa, we construct global projections of future heat stress and associated labor capacity losses. Surveys of workers provide work intensity and outdoor exposure rates, allowing us to determine which type of workers in which sectors would be affected most. Using a global economic model, we assess the resulting impacts on production, GDP, prices, wages, and incomes. In turn, income changes determine poverty changes. Using recent survey data from seven West African countries, we determine how many households are pushed into poverty under a +3°C global warming scenario. Neglecting potential increases in mortality and morbidity rates, poverty increases in six countries by between 2.3% and 9.2%, while in one country, Guinea, there is little change. In Guinea, agricultural workers can see their wages increase due to increased demand aimed at mitigating food production losses. Key Points: In a global equilibrium economic model analysis, heat‐induced labor losses cause significant poverty impacts in West African countriesAgricultural unskilled labor can see increased wage rates as demands for this type of labor increase in order to dampen food output lossesImpoverished households' earning sources are key in determining the extent to which a country's poverty headcount is affected [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Value Added Taxes (VAT) constitute a major share of tax revenues in developing countries in which tax evasion is widespread. The literature on VAT evasion, however, is relatively scant. This paper develops a computable general equilibrium framework for analyzing endogenous VAT tax evasion. The analytical framework entails increasing enforcement through greater spending on the enforcement of tax revenue collection. We assume that there is an elasticity that connects the changes in enforcement to actual increases in VAT collection. We apply the model to Pakistan data and show the level of enforcement spending required to achieve certain VAT collection targets. We also examine the short-, medium-, and long-term macroeconomic outlooks, and real consumption distribution across household economic groups associated with higher enforcement spending. We calibrate the model using 2016 as the base year and then run the dynamic model forward for 20 years. We define the implicit VAT rate as that hypothetical statutory rate that, in the absence of evasion, would approximately generate the observed VAT collection. We assume zero additional spending on enforcement in the baseline and estimate two alternative scenarios of VAT revenue target of 8% and 15% of the GDP. The alternative scenarios require increase in enforcement spending by a compounded 46.4% and 322.4%, respectively. We find that the increased enforcement spending enhances the sustainability of the government's budget deficit without causing a decline in real GDP over the long-term. The interest and inflation rates are also lowered. However, there is a small regressive impact on households' real consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Polish Journal of Economics / Gospodarka Narodowa is the property of SGH Warsaw School of Economics and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Regional Science Policy & Practice is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Point data observations are often used to calibrate computable general equilibrium (CGE) models; however, results may be impacted by calibration of an Armington trade specification in a regional CGE (R-CGE) model. This paper calibrates an Armington trade specification with three differently estimated interregional trade data sets. It estimates interregional trade with one survey and two non-survey methods. The resulting three different trade data sets are each used to calibrate REMES, an R-CGE model for Norway. Two regional policy reforms are simulated with the three model versions to analyze the sensitivity of regional manufacturing sector output to trade data estimates. The results show that the trade data estimation method used for calibration significantly affects regional sector output results. Policy analysts and developers should be aware that calibrating an Armington trade specification with differently estimated interregional trade data may have a substantial influence on model results, and hence, on ex-ante and ex-post conclusions on policy impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the impact of the 2021–22 surge in rates for containerized and bulk shipping costs. Employing a detailed transport database and applying a set of detailed shocks by transportation mode, regions and commodities in a multi-region general equilibrium model, the paper analyses the sectorial (agri-food sectors, manufacturing) and macroeconomic (trade, wide-economic indicators) impacts of the recent surge in shipping costs. Maritime transport costs are sensitive to imbalances between global demand and supply, which rose further after the Covid-19 pandemic. In a globalised world, an increase in shipping rates can have widespread repercussions on international trade, creating risks for the global economic activity. The results allow the analysis of how shocks in transport costs can affect prices in international trade and explain the short- and medium-term impacts on the economy. The main finding is that rising maritime transport costs tend to reverse the trend towards globalisation of international trade and favour localization.

Negishi's remarkable youthful contribution to welfare economics, general equilibrium theory and, with the benefit of hindsight, also to one strand of computable general equilibrium theory, all within the span of six pages in one article, has become one of the modern classics of general equilibrium theory and mathematical economics. Negishi's celebrated theorem and what has been called Negishi's Method have formed one foundation for computable general equilibrium theory. In this paper I investigate the computable and constructive aspects of the theorem and the method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Covid-19 pandemic led to a loss of employment in many sectors of the economy around the world. This negatively affected the industry capacity of production of many countries. Linking the CO2 emissions to the production capacity, the total pollution is likely to decrease. We investigate this issue by designing a simple environmental model based on the partial equilibrium (PE). We test this theoretically and empirically using recent data on the total contamination for four regions and countries. Then, we link our model to the CGE model of Hosoe et al. (2010) to capture the impact on other sectors of the economy. The final model PE-CGE is therefore designed through the household consumption demand channel. Broadly, our findings show that the environmental impact of the pandemic depends on the structure of the economy. While the USA, China and Sub-Saharan Africa reduce their CO2 emissions, that of the EU rather increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) plays an vital role in ensuring energy security. China initiated the strategic petroleum reserve in 2004. The optimal scale of SPR has become a concern to policymakers. The paper adopts a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine the influence of oil shortages on the economy. It is revealed that when the shortage rate reaches 25%, the price of domestic crude oil will rise by 121.2%, the price of refined petroleum products will rise by 67.8%, and the GDP will decline by 0.7%. The GDP loss is accelerated with the shortage rate rises. The output of coal, electricity and other energy will increase, and most non-energy sectors will decline. There is an inverse U-shaped curve between net export and oil shortage. Based on the result of CGE, we further develop a framework to determine the optimal SPR. The results indicate that the optimal stockpile is 389 million barrels, which is higher than the current reserve scale. At least an additional 198 million barrels of reserves are required. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to quantify the impact of exogenous variables. The findings of this paper can provide reference information for the policy maker to formulate SPR planning.

The paper aims to assess the impact of climate change on sustainable development in the case of the High Plateaux region of Algeria. A baseline "climate change" scenario and an "adaptation" scenario were assessed as part of our work. The methodological approach implemented is broken down into three interconnected evaluation phases, pre-modelling phase, modelling phase and post-modelling phase. The work has shown that these complex ex-ante evaluation approaches are adaptable and applicable in the context of Algeria. Our findings indicate that climate change would have a significant impact on economic aggregates on a regional scale. It also highlighted that the calculation of a single index of the impact of environmental policies on the sustainability of arid regions confirms the hypothesis of gaining sustainability by working towards a strategy of adaptation to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short-term climate conditions may affect crop yields and vintage quality and, as a consequence, wine prices and vineyards' earnings. In this paper, we use a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Chile, which incorporates very detailed information about the value chain of the wine sector in the country. Using information for the 2015-2016 harvest, we calibrate climate variability shocks associated with a "bad year" for the wine industry in Chile, when premature rains occurred in important wine regions, reducing the area harvested and leading to wines with less concentrated flavors, particularly for reds. We model the climate shocks as a productivity change in the grape-producing sector (quantity effect). Moreover, we model quality effects as a shift in the foreign demand curve for Chilean wine. Given the specific economic environment in the model and the proposed simulation, it is possible to note the reduction of Chilean real GDP by about 0.067%. By decomposing this result, we verify that the quality effect has a slightly greater weight compared to the quantity effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taking a European Union focus, this paper explicitly models competing uses of biomass to quantify its contribution toward a sustainable low carbon model of economic growth. To this end, a state-of-the-art multisector multiregion modelling tool is combined with a specially developed bio-based variant of a well-known global database. Employing a decomposition method of the market drivers and classifying alternative future pathways, the aim is to understand how public policies can influence the apparent trade-off between the goals of lower carbon economic growth, environmental preservation and sustainable biomass usage. Results reveal that in targeting specific societal goals public policy can be effective, although this can lead to broader economic issues of resource inefficiency and even direct policy conflicts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a decomposition algorithm by which a market economy with many households may be solved through the computation of equilibria for a sequence of representative agent economies. The paper examines local and global convergence properties of the sequential recalibration (SR) algorithm. The SR algorithm is then demonstrated to efficiently solve Auerbach–Kotlikoff OLG models with a large number of heterogeneous households. We approximate equilibria in OLG models by solving a sequence of related Ramsey optimal growth problems. This approach can provide improvements in both efficiency and robustness as compared with integrated complementarity-based solution methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article a banking sector Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for South Africa is developed. The model is used to estimate the potential effect of regulatory policy on the economy and as a risk assessment tool to assess how changes in regulation affect the economy. The model provides a methodology for regulators of the banking sector and policy makers in South Africa to deal with risk assessment and future regulatory planning. The CGE model allows interactions amongst various entities of the economy so that policy makers could detect the risks in the banking sector. The CGE model used in this paper performed well as a risk assessment tool for the South African banking sector. The results of the various shocks from the model are consistent with the results obtained from similar shocks done in the UK. We establish that default penalty has a higher effect on the banks' profits and the interest rates than capital requirement infringement penalty. Our results also suggest that interest rate targeting has more controlled effects than monetary base targeting since pecuniary externalities are reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land redistributive policies can be viewed as effective tools for reducing rural poverty mainly because agriculture continues to be a major source of rural livelihood and a contributor to rural economic growth. For the structural changes and economy-wide impacts, including behavioural changes of rural land distribution, to be assessed and captured through time, a South African Social Accounting Matrix can be used as a database to construct a dynamic computable general equilibrium simulation model to simulate the potential impact on household welfare in South Africa. This study seeks to assess how government redistributive policies may affect household welfare in short- and long-run, focusing on poverty and income distribution in South Africa by applying a dynamic computable general equilibrium microsimulation model. The results showed that rural land distribution increases poor household income through an increase in factor by an average of 0.828. However, for most macroeconomic variables, the impact is negative in the short-run with a gradual increase in the long-run. The results support the claim that rural land distribution coupled with agriculture investment and government support can be effective in improving household welfare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The structure of demand plays a fundamental role in shaping economic equilibrium. In computable general equilibrium analysis, comparative statics allow us to simulate how policies or external adjustments impact the equilibrium state. The results of these simulations are significantly influenced by the nature of the adopted demand structure. Typically, homothetic demand structures are frequently used for simplicity in these equilibrium models, but they do not accurately capture demand behavior. In this text, we study the properties of a demand system that eliminates demand constraints often found in general equilibrium models. Specifically, we first explore the characteristics of a demand system that generalizes the standard Stone–Geary linear demand structure. Second, we illustrate its possibilities with an empirical application using available Spanish data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South Africa has been battling with getting land reform right since the advent of democratic rule in 1994 The need to expedite land reform in the country has given rise to a number of radical approaches, including the topic and controversial expropriation of land without compensation discourse. The simulation results presented in this paper provide nuanced policy options for land redistribution in South Africa in the face of the looming expropriation of land without compensation. The analysis in this paper is specific to agricultural land as opposed to land in general. We carried out scenario simulation through Computable General Equilibrium approach using the modified University of Pretoria General Equilibrium Model (UPGEM), which is solved using GEMPACK solution software. Our simulation revealed that there would be adjustment costs regardless of the option(s) chosen. The Inclusive Scenario came up as the most suitable policy option in terms of minimal adjustment costs and allowing the sector to continue to grow, albeit at a lower rate compared to the status quo. Given that agricultural land reform is imperative in South Africa, policy makers should opt for the policy option that is least disruptive to the economy while achieving the desired outcome of more equitable agricultural land ownership and broader participation in the agricultural sector by the majority in the country. Thus, the Inclusive Scenario was found to be the most suitable policy option for agriculture land reform in South Africa.

Climate change impacts have manifold effects on public budgets. In this paper, we therefore use a computable general equilibrium framework to consistently analyze how both the expenditure and revenue side of public budgets are affected via climate change impacts in ten different impact fields in Austria by mid-century. We then investigate different options how reductions in public service provision can be counterbalanced by fiscal instruments or by foreign lending and the associated economy-wide effects. We find that without counterbalancing, climate change impacts on the government budgets are doubled when considering not only the direct effect on the expenditure side but also macroeconomic feedback effects which reduce the overall tax base. With counterbalancing, we find significant differences in budgetary and macroeconomic consequences across fiscal instruments. While an increase of the capital tax as well as a cut in transfers reduce the welfare losses of climate change, higher labor taxes amplify welfare losses. This is because higher labor taxes dis-incentivize employing labor, thereby increasing unemployment and unemployment payments by the government. A higher output tax also increases welfare losses, but less strongly than an increased labor tax. Finally, increased foreign lending reduces welfare losses twice as much as the cut in transfers or the increased capital tax in the short term, but leads to a higher deficit and government debt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The EU has established the world's first cross-border emission-trading systems (ETS) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, currently covering aviation, emission-intensive sectors, and electricity (EITE). The EU Commission has offered to apply emissions trading in new sectors where emissions from maritime transport will be incorporated into the current EU ETS, while a separated emissions trading system will cover emissions from road transport and the building sector. This paper employs a multi-regional multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with two simultaneous international emission permit markets. After examining the abatement costs for the EU regions, various policy scenarios are implemented to study the welfare effects of forming an ETS covering the sectors other than EITE (NEIT) and its linking with the EITE sectors under two different baselines and four emission reduction targets. The results provide several important insights: (i) Marginal abatement costs in Germany and the Eastern European Union region (EEU) are significantly lower than in the rest of the EU regions. (ii) The carbon price in the emission permit market covering NEIT is significantly higher than the carbon price in the emission permit market covering EITE. (iii) Germany and EEU appear as notable suppliers of emission permits in both markets. (iv) There is a significant aggregate welfare gain under the scenario in which the ETS covering NEIT co-exists parallel with the ETS covering EITE. (v) The aggregate welfare in the EU under the full integration of EITE and NEIT may fall below its value under the scenario with two parallel emission permit markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When evaluating climate policy, previous researchers tend to exaggerate positive employment benefits at aggregate level. Nevertheless, distributional employment at sectoral level is usually neglected, and consequently policy implementation may be impeded by the sectors with severe employment loss. Hence, distributional employment impacts of climate policy should be comprehensively studied. To achieve this target, in this paper, a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is employed to simulate the Chinese nationwide Emission Trading Scheme (ETS). The CGE model results show that the ETS decreased total labor employment by approximately 3% in 2021, and then this negative impact will diminish to zero in 2024; the ETS will positively affect total labor employment in 2025–2030. The ETS increases labor employment in the electricity sectors and also agriculture, water, heat, and gas production sectors, as these sectors are complementary to the electricity sectors or do not have intensive use of electricity. In contrast, the ETS decreases labor employment in the sectors with intensive use of electricity, including the coal and petrol production, manufacturing, mining, construction, transport, and service sectors. Overall, a climate policy, which covers electricity generation only and is time-invariant, tends to have time-decreasing employment impacts. Because this policy increases labor employment in electricity generation from nonrenewable energy, it cannot help achieve low-carbon transition. [Display omitted] • This paper focuses on employment impacts of climate policy at sectoral level rather than aggregate level. • Emission Trading Scheme decreases employment in short term but increases employment in medium or long term. • Emission Trading Scheme increases employment in sectors complementary to electricity sectors. • Emission Trading Scheme decreases employment in sectors with intensive use of electricity. • A time-invariant climate policy, targeted at electricity sectors only, cannot help achieve low-carbon transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the relationship between the design of incentives to firms under regulation, mainly the rule for adjusting tariffs, and trade balance performance of the country. We also explore whether this relationship is relevant or not for a typical developing economy like Argentina. We find it is. To study these issues we perform comparative static numerical exercises using a CGE model where service obligation and no entry in regulated industries are assumed. We show that the capital account openness and the rate of exchange regime could be key elements to match with the regulatory regime. The potential inconsistency between the international trade regime and the regulatory regime should not be rejected a priori. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ten years after Indonesia implemented a major decentralisation policy, regional income per capita disparity and excessive rate of natural resource extraction continue to be pressing issues. There are great interests in identifying macro policies that would reduce regional income disparity and better control the rate of natural extraction, while maintaining reasonable national economic growth. This paper utilises an inter-regional computable general equilibrium model, IRSA-INDONESIA5, to discuss the economy-wide impacts of various policies dealing with the development gap among regions in the country, achieving low carbon growth, and reducing deforestation. The results of simulations conducted reveal that, primarily, the best way to reduce the development gap among regions is by creating effective programs to accelerate the growth of human capital in the less developed regions. Secondly, in the short-term, the elimination of energy subsidies and/or implementation of a carbon tax is effective in reducing CO2 emission and producing higher economic growth, while in the long-run, however, technological improvement, particularly toward a more energy efficient technology, is needed to maintain a relatively low level of emission with continued high growth. Thirdly, if reducing deforestation means reducing the amount of timber harvested, it negatively affects the economy. To eliminate this negative impact, deforestation compensation is needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the economic impact of the second great immigration wave (1945-2000) on the US economy. Our analysis relies on a computable general equilibrium model combining the major interactions between immigrants and natives (labor market impact, fiscal impact, capital deepening, endogenous education, endogenous inequality). Contrary to recent studies, we show that immigration induced important net gains and small redistributive effects among natives. According to our simulations, the postwar US immigration is beneficial for all natives cohorts and all skill groups. Nevertheless, the gains would have been larger if the US had conducted a more selective immigration policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, I attempt to show that mathematical economics is unreasonably ineffective. Unreasonable, because the mathematical assumptions are economically unwarranted; ineffective because the mathematical formalisations imply non-constructive and uncomputable structures. A reasonable and effective mathematisation of economics entails Diophantine formalisms. These come with natural undecidabilities and uncomputabilities. In the face of this, I conjecture that an economics for the future will be freer to explore experimental methodologies underpinned by alternative mathematical structures. The whole discussion is framed within the context of the celebrated Wignerian theme: The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the Natural Sciences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last decade Germany has boosted renewable energy in power production by means of massive subsidies. The flip side are very high electricity prices which raise concerns that the transition cost towards a renewable energy system will be mainly borne by poor households. In this paper, we combine computable general equilibrium and microsimulation analyses to investigate the economic impacts of Germany's renewable energy promotion. We find that the regressive effects of renewable energy promotion could be attenuated by alternative subsidy financing mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon capture usage and storage (CCUS) is emerging as an important solution in delivering deep emissions reductions in energy-intensive industries, enabling hydrogen production, and possibly directly capturing existing carbon dioxide (CO 2) from the atmosphere. The potential for associated new industry activity – for example in CO 2 Transport and Storage (T&S) – could also be important in transitioning economies with legacy investment in oil and gas extraction. This paper addresses the question of how introducing a nascent T&S industry may impact the wider UK economy in the presence of persisting national labour supply constraints. It does so by refining a multi-sector economy-wide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the UK to run scenarios focussed on the emergence of a nascent sector, involving identification of benchmark activity – here, the existing oil and gas industry – where that nascent sector is not currently represented in national accounting data. Crucially, the CGE model embeds a theoretically and empirically tested wage bargaining function to consider how cost and price pressures triggered will condition dynamic outcomes for producers, consumers and government budgets. Results suggest that emergence of a new T&S industry is likely to deliver sustained net gains in UK employment and GDP. However, maximising T&S-linked jobs gains while minimising displacement of employment and price pressures elsewhere in the economy requires policy action to alleviate labour supply and skills constraints. This reinforces policy and industry recommendations around the need for net zero workforce planning and attention to the potential fiscal implications of taking action, or not/in different timeframes. • Introducing a new CO 2 Transport and Storage industry could boost the UK economy. • Wage responses in a supply constrained labour market substantially condition outcomes. • Wage-cost driven price impacts affect all producers, consumers and government budgets. • Mitigating wage bargaining pressure requires policy action on workforce planning. • Findings reinforce the need for economy-wide and fiscal analysis of net zero actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The supply of rare earths in China has been the focus of significant attention in recent years. Due to changes in regulatory policies and the development of strategic emerging industries, it is critical to investigate the scenario of rare earth supplies in 2025. To address this question, this paper constructed a dynamic computable equilibrium (DCGE) model to forecast the production, domestic supply, and export of China’s rare earths in 2025. Based on our analysis, production will increase by 10.8%–12.6% and achieve 116,335–118,260 tons of rare-earth oxide (REO) in 2025, based on recent extraction control during 2011–2016. Moreover, domestic supply and export will be 75,081–76,800 tons REO and 38,797–39,400 tons REO, respectively. The technological improvements on substitution and recycling will significantly decrease the supply and mining activities of rare earths. From a policy perspective, we found that the elimination of export regulations, including export quotas and export taxes, does have a negative impact on China’s future domestic supply of rare earths. The policy conflicts between the increase in investment in strategic emerging industries, and the increase in resource and environmental taxes on rare earths will also affect China’s rare earths supply in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Brazilian Journal of Applied Economics / Economía Aplicada is the property of FEA-RP, Universidade de Sao Paulo and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The paper addressed the formulation of a macro model to capture the macroeconomic impact of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD). Previous studies has adopted various models such as the dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, endogenous model and the LINKAGE model, but there is dire need to generate a step-by-step model which will comprehensively capture how the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) impacts on macroeconomic variables. Adopting the traditional neoclassical growth model, the model aggregated the various macroeconomic variables as well as captured the epidemic's strain on each of these variables. The paper also empirically shows that the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) has direct, indirect and deferred indirect cost implications for the economy. Using case studies of countries in Africa, the study evaluated how the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) has affected the macroeconomic status of selected economies. The findings imply that there is dire need to control the spread of the deadly plague. The paper contribute immensely to empirical studies in the field of macroeconomics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Management for Global Sustainability is the property of Ateneo de Manila University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)