Search

This paper investigates whether the COVID-19 cases and death rates affect the dynamic correlation of corporate-government bond yields. Therefore, this study uses the daily corporate bond data with different ratings of bonds along with the COVID-19 data at both the US and global levels. Using the quantile regression approach, it produces the following results. First, the impact of daily cases differs from that of death rates both locally and globally. Second, the impact of local cases and death cases on the government-AAA yields correlation at a given quantile tends to reverse when the BBB bonds are used in the analysis. Third, global death rates significantly affect the correlation series the most at the higher quantiles. Lastly, AAA-rated bonds show higher sensitivity to COVID-19 cases and death rates than BBB-rated bonds. This finding indicates that relatively high-quality bonds are more susceptible to the pandemic period and thus calls for careful evaluation of assets included in investors’ portfolios. This study assumes that local COVID-19 data provide a better implication for constructing bond portfolios than global data. That is, their economic impact depends on the rating of the bond and tends to vary more across correlation quantiles.

Viewing the development of the stock market in Ukraine, the economy, which world financial organizations characterize as small and open, is largely determined by the trends formed by the global stock markets and leading stock exchanges. Therefore, the study aims to analyze Ukraine’s stock market, the world stock market, stock markets in the regions, and to assess their mutual influence. The study uses the data of the World Federation of Exchanges and National Securities and Stock Market Commission (Ukraine) from 2015 to 2020. Stock market performance forecasts are built using triple exponential smoothing. Based on pairwise correlation coefficients, the existence of a significant dependence in the development of the world stock market on the development of the American stock market was determined. Regarding the Ukrainian stock exchanges, only SE “PFTS” demonstrated its dependence on the US stock market. The results of the regression model based on an exponentially smoothed series of trading volumes in all markets showed that variations in the volume of trading on the world stock market are due to the situation on the US stock markets. Trading volume dynamics on Ukrainian stock exchanges such as SE “PFTS” and SE “Perspektiva” is almost 50% determined by the development of stock markets in the American region. Although Ukraine is geographically located in Europe, the results show a lack of significant links and the impacts of stock markets in this region on the major Ukrainian stock exchanges and the stock market as a whole.

The objective of investors to invest their money was to maximize return, although they were subject to constraints, primarily risk, so this study aims to provide an alternative to the formation of portfolios and corporate bonds to obtain optimal returns with acceptable risk. The alternative model is to combine Graham's stock selection model with the formation of an optimal portfolio model, namely the Markowitz model. The results of the selection using the Graham model of defensive investors and aggressive investors are 9 and 13 stocks, respectively, of the 45 stocks listed on the LQ45 index. From the selected stocks, the optimal portfolio is formed using the Markowitz model. The results show that the Markowitz model optimizing portfolio provides better performance (reward to variability ratio) than the LQ45 portfolio index with a yield difference of 13.68 – 20.24% per year. Furthermore, the selection of corporate bonds for the optimal portfolio resulted in 8 corporate bonds with a portion of each bond, and this portfolio can generate rates of 8.88% per annum. JEL: G10, G11, G12

While previous academic research highlights the potential of machine learning and big data for predicting corporate bond recovery rates, the operations management challenge is to identify the relevant predictive variables and the appropriate model. In this paper, we use meta-learning to combine the predictions from 20 candidates of linear, nonlinear and rule-based algorithms, and we exploit a data set of predictors including security-specific factors, macro-financial indicators and measures of economic uncertainty. We find that the most promising approach consists of model combinations trained on security-specific characteristics and a limited number of well-identified, theoretically sound recovery rate determinants, including uncertainty measures. Our research provides useful indications for practitioners and regulators targeting more reliable risk measures in designing micro- and macro-prudential policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The green bond market is emerging as an impactful financing mechanism in climate change mitigation efforts. The effectiveness of the financial market for this transition to a low-carbon economy depends on attracting investors and removing financial market roadblocks. This paper investigates the differential bond performance of green vs non-green bonds with (1) a dynamic portfolio model that integrates negative as well as positive externality effects and via (2) econometric analyses of aggregate green bond and corporate energy time-series indices; as well as a cross-sectional set of individual bonds issued between 1 January 2017, and 1 October 2020. The asset pricing model demonstrates that, in the long-run, the positive externalities of green bonds benefit the economy through positive social returns. We use a deterministic and a stochastic version of the dynamic portfolio approach to obtain model-driven results and evaluate those through our empirical evidence using harmonic estimations. The econometric analysis of this study focuses on volatility and the risk–return performance (Sharpe ratio) of green and non-green bonds, and extends recent econometric studies that focused on yield differentials of green and non-green bonds. A modified Sharpe ratio analysis, cross-sectional methods, harmonic estimations, bond pairing estimations, as well as regression tree methodology, indicate that green bonds tend to show lower volatility and deliver superior Sharpe ratios (while the evidence for green premia is mixed). As a result, green bond investment can protect investors and portfolios from oil price and business cycle fluctuations, and stabilize portfolio returns and volatility. Policymakers are encouraged to make use of the financial benefits of green instruments and increase the financial flows towards sustainable economic activities to accelerate a low-carbon transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the role of public debt financing in shaping accounting conservatism in privately held companies. We focus on the change in conservatism of private firms following initial issuance of public debt and examine the effects of agency conflicts between bondholders and shareholders on the change in conservatism. Regression analyses on a large sample of public bond issues by Korean private firms reveal the following: First, private firms with public debt exhibit a higher degree of conservatism than those with exclusively private debt. The incremental effect of public debt on the level of conservatism is virtually equivalent in magnitude to that of public equity. Second, and more importantly, private firms that issue public debt for the first time show a significant increase in conservatism, whereas corresponding public firms do not. Third, private firms with high agency costs of public debt (characterized by high-information asymmetry and high credit risk) undergo a greater increase in conservatism following their initial bond issues than those with low agency costs. Further analysis shows that private firms sustain increased levels of conservatism even beyond the time period of average maturity of initial bonds and that bond investors reward this long-term commitment to conservative accounting by gradually reducing interest rates for seasoned bond issuers. The findings of this study shed light on how information demand arising from public debt issuance, especially by private firms with high ex ante agency costs, engenders conservative financial reporting in emerging markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the effect of the bond capital supply uncertainty of institutional investors (e.g., mutual bond funds and insurance companies) on the leverage of the firm using a novel data set. Our main finding is that the supply uncertainty of the firm's bond investor base - measured as (i) the average portfolio turnover, or (ii) the average flow volatility of investors holding the firm's bonds, or (iii) the prevalence of mutual funds among the firm's bondholders as opposed to insurance companies - has a negative and significant effect on the leverage of the firm. The supply uncertainty of the firm's bond investor base also has a negative and significant effect on the firm's probability of issuing bonds, and a positive and significant effect on the firm's probability of issuing equity and borrowing from banks. We take a multi-pronged approach to address potential endogeneity issues, including use of geography-based instruments and firm fixed effects, subsample analyses, and a placebo test. Our results highlight the fragility of access to the bond market for companies that depend on mutual funds with high turnover/ flow volatility as primary bond investors. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

In this study we examine the volatility-adjusted 60/40 rule at the individual company level. We document that strong diversification benefits exist over the long-term, and that both the equity and corporate bonds exhibit positive expected drifts. For our sample of 30 large-cap companies, given that corporate bond positions have shown less volatility than the equity position, we leveraged the resultant portfolio of 60/40 to match that of the equity position. When we compare the two investments, we document an outperformance of 100 to 200 bps per year, even after we account for the leverage costs of 100 bps. We believe our work will open up a new risk investing paradigm for those seeking long-term advantages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper identifies seasonal firms and their peak seasons to provide empirical evidence of the approach these firms take to finance seasonal operations. The seasonal use of funds, which builds before seasonal revenue, is largely financed with transitory sources of credit, such as credit lines, trade credit, and commercial paper. Permanent financing is used only moderately to meet seasonal needs. However, both weak credit market conditions and firm‐level financial constraints limit the ability of seasonal firms to use debt as transitory financing. These frictions result in a partial shift to permanent financing but reduce the seasonal use of funds overall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to create a bondholders' protection index (BPI) and to investigate what the influence of this index would be on multimarket funds' allocation in corporate bonds. Understanding this relation is relevant because only about 1.36% of multimarket funds' portfolios correspond to debentures. This study advances the literature by covering a topic little discussed in a Brazilian context, proposing the creation of a BPI, which would be related to the number of automatic maturity clauses, which guarantee immediate payment to bondholders in cases of the rupture of a contract. This research comprised 926 debentures series issued in Brazil from 2009 to 2017, and 1,753 multimarket funds, which allocated some portfolios' percentage in these securities. In creating the BPI, we contemplated 15 restrictive clauses, which the most common correspond to negligent business performance, liquidation, dissolution and bankruptcy, and restrictions related to company structure. Moreover, we examined less common restrictive clauses as well, including indebtedness policy, shares issuance and amortization, and ratings downgrading. Regarding data analysis, we employed multiple linear regression models, with pooled estimators, applying the standard error correction by White's robust matrix (1980). The main results suggest that BPI positively effects multimarket funds' allocation in debentures. Furthermore, this influence is more intense in indentures with higher number of clauses with automatic maturity. Thus, this study contributes to literature about restrictive clauses, since it demonstrates that debentures' flexible and adaptable structure seems to be interesting for the main bondholders in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We find that liquidity is priced in corporate yield spreads. Using a battery of liquidity measures covering over 4,000 corporate bonds and spanning both investment grade and speculative categories, we find that more illiquid bonds earn higher yield spreads, and an improvement in liquidity causes a significant reduction in yield spreads. These results hold after controlling for common bond-specific, firm-specific, and macroeconomic variables, and are robust to issuers' fixed effect and potential endogeneity bias. Our findings justify the concern in the default risk literature that neither the level nor the dynamic of yield spreads can be fully explained by default risk determinants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the transmission effects of monetary policy in a general equilibrium model of the financial sector, with bank lending and securities markets. Bank lending is constrained by capital adequacy requirements, and asymmetric information adds a cost to outside bank equity capital. In our model, monetary policy does not affect bank lending through changes in bank liquidity; rather, it operates through changes in the spread of bank loans over corporate bonds, which induce changes in the aggregate composition of financing by firms, and in banks' equity-capital base. The model produces multiple equilibria, one of which displays all the features of a "credit crunch." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, I use institutional corporate bond trade data to estimate transactions costs in the over-the-counter bond market. I find average round-trip trading costs to be about $0.27 per $100 of par value. Trading costs are lower for larger trades. Small institutions pay more to trade than large institutions, all else being equal. Small bond dealers charge more than large ones. I find no evidence that trading costs more for lower-rated bonds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this article is to explain the spread between rates on corporate and government bonds. We show that expected default accounts for a surprisingly small fraction of the premium in corporate rates over treasuries. While state taxes explain a substantial portion of the difference, the remaining portion of the spread is closely related to the factors that we commonly accept as explaining risk premiums for common stocks. Both our time series and cross-sectional tests support the existence of a risk premium on corporate bonds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There exists a substantial literature concerned with the bond refunding problem. Previously published analyses have generally been set in a framework employing the yield-to-maturity model of bond pricing; i.e., yields to maturity have been assumed to be interest rates and/or "the market rate" for discounting particular future payments. The historical existence of a "coupon effect" on yield to maturity and theoretical analyses (cf. Buse, Robichek and Niebuhr, and Caks) convincingly prove that this is incorrect. In this paper, a new approach is proposed that avoids the problems caused by using yields to maturity as discount rates. It demonstrates that "interest savings" per se is not a valid reason to refund bonds, the tax deductibility of interest payments implies high coupon bonds shouldn't be refunded, and that it is only the special tax subsidies/penalties granted to firms repurchasing their own bonds that justifies the corporate practice of refunding high coupon bonds and not refunding low coupon bonds. The usefulness of the approach is not confined to analyses of bond refunding. It allows for a straightforward solution to the "optimal coupon" problem and it has interesting implications regarding convertible and callable bonds as financing instruments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Corporate bond defaults in different sectors often increase suddenly at roughly similar times, although some sectors see default rates jump earlier than others. This could reflect contagion among sectors—specifically, defaults in one sector leading to credit stresses in other sectors of the economy that would not otherwise have seen stresses. To complicate matters, simple correlation-based tests for contagion are often biased, reflecting increased volatility in periods of stress. This paper uses sectoral default data from over 30 sectors to test for signs of contagion over the past 30 years. While jumps in sectoral default rates do often coincide, there is no consistent evidence of contagion across different periods of stress from unbiased test results. Instead, coincident jumps in sectoral default rates are likely to reflect common macroeconomic shocks.

PCA has been widely used in many fields to detect dominant principle components, but it ignores the information embedded in the remaining components. As a supplement to PCA, we propose the General Component Analysis (GCA). The inverse participation ratios (IPRs) are used to identify the global components (GCs) and localized components (LCs). The mean values of the IPRs derived from the shuffled data are taken as the natural threshold, which is exquisite and novel. In this paper, the Chinese corporate bond market is analyzed as an example. We propose a novel network method to divide time periods based on micro data, which performs better in capturing the time points when the market state switches. As a result, two periods have been obtained. There are two GCs in both periods, which are influenced by terms to maturity and ratings. Besides, there are 382 LCs in Period 1 and 166 LCs in Period 2. In the LC portfolios there are two interesting bond collections which are helpful to understand the thoughts of the investors. One is the supper AAA bond collection which is believed to have implicit governmental guarantees by the investors, and the other is the overcapacity industrial bond collection which is influenced by the supply-side reform led by the Chinese government. GCA is expected to be applied to other complex systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fat-tail financial data and cyclical financial market makes it difficult for the fixed structure model based on Gaussian distribution to characterize the dynamics of corporate bonds spreads. Using a flexible structure model based on generalized error distribution, this paper focuses on the impact of macro-level factors on the spreads of corporate bonds in China. It is found that in China's corporate bonds market, macroeconomic conditions have obvious structural transformational effects on bonds spreads, and their structural features remain stable with the downgrade of bonds ratings. The impact of macroeconomic conditions on spreads is significant for different structures, and the differences between the structures increase as ratings decline. For different structures, the persistent characteristics of bonds spreads are obviously stronger than those of recursive ones, which suggest an obvious speculation in bonds market. It is also found that the structure switching of bonds with different ratings is not synchronous, which indicates the shift of investment between different grades of bonds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We find that short-maturity investment-grade corporate bonds perform better, controlling for risk differences, than similar bonds with longer maturities. Our results are at least partially attributable to insurance companies' trading behavior and align with the preferred-habitat theory of the term structure. We find that insurance-company purchases create a strong demand for long-term bonds and that their rebalancing activity results in sales of short-term bonds. As documented by extant literature, such demand-supply imbalance is not easily resolved by arbitrageurs or firms seeking to time the market with bond issuance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The capital market is one of many sites that allows raising capital by companies. One of the instruments in the capital market are corporate bonds. The purpose of this article is to analyze methods of cost management issue bonds on the Catalyst market. The following research problems were identified: What are the costs of issuing bonds in the Catalyst market? Which of the costs associated with capital raising through bond issue dominate the corporate bond issue on Catalyst? What are the methods of managing bond issuance costs on the Catalyst? The article presents the base of the structure of corporate bonds, the range of the cost of issuing bonds on the Catalyst market. The analysis of the regulations and resolutions of Catalyst and KDPW, as well as the method of simulation of bond issue costs, were used to analyze bond issuance costs in the Catalyst market. Based on the simulations the issue of bonds in the period of 4 years were calculated costs that have to be incurred to handle the new bond issue. In the case of a bond issue company-issuer must manage the costs associated with the preparation of the issue, that is, the costs of preparing the prospectus, as well as resulting from the fees of the Stock Exchange and the National Depository for Securities, which are related to the introduction of bonds on Catalyst. Comparison of several variants of the issue that way, the actual cost of raising capital on the Catalyst market and the preferred method of cost management such emissions.