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An inquiry into the impact of external and domestic borrowings is considered timely for Nigeria, given the growing public debt profile amid deteriorating human capital development. Using data from 1990 to 2021, the study estimates the effects of domestic and external debts on Nigeria's human capital development. The study employed the fully modified ordinary least squares and canonical cointegration regression as the main estimation technique and the robustness check, respectively. The study discovered that domestic and external debt, economic growth and debt servicing exert positive and significant influence on human capital development in Nigeria while environmental pollution has an inverse and significant impact on human capital development in Nigeria. Premised on the outcomes, policy suggestions aimed at enhancing human capital development in Nigeria have been put forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research investigates the relationship between exchange rates and economic growth in Nigeria during the period from 1981 to 2019. The research conducted an analysis of Nigerian data using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique and identified that Exchange Rates have a favourable impact on Economic Growth. This paper affirmed the regression's validity with stationary residuals and found no long-term equilibrium using Bound Cointegration. The ARDL modelling revealed short-term connections between exchange rates and economic growth. Positive correlations were observed between exchange rates, GDP per capita growth, interest rates, and total exports, while negative relationships were noted with inflation and total imports, highlighting the importance of exchange rate stability in sustaining economic growth. This research provides a novel viewpoint on the connection between exchange rates and economic growth in Nigeria during the period from 1981 to 2019. It uncovers that more than 98% of the fluctuations in exchange rates can be accounted for by the included variables. The noteworthy discovery of the absence of a long-term equilibrium relationship within the specified time frame sets this study apart. Furthermore, it underscores the crucial role of exchange rate stability in promoting enduring economic growth, emphasising the necessity for well-designed policies that consider the intricate economic landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines whether knowledge causes economic growth in Africa's two leading economies, Nigeria and South Africa. Using the Vector Autoregressive and Vector Error Correction approaches, the findings show cointegration among the variables. The speed of convergence of the variables to their long‐term mean values is relatively higher for South Africa than for Nigeria. In the short run, it is observed that knowledge unidirectionally Granger causes growth for Nigeria, whereas bidirectional causality is observed for South Africa. The higher correlation between knowledge and growth in South Africa reflects the success of greater investment in education. Nigeria must increase investment in education and modern infrastructure to converge to South Africa's growth trajectory. Moreover, for Nigeria, (1) knowledge unidirectionally Granger cause growth, (2) evidence of bidirectional causality flow is apparent between trade, the economic incentive, and growth, and (3) health unidirectionally Granger cause knowledge. As for South Africa (1) there is bidirectional causality between knowledge, trade openness, and growth, whereas investment and economic incentive, unidirectionally Granger causes growth, (2) investment, trade openness, and health unidirectionally Granger cause knowledge, and (3) economic incentive unidirectionally Granger cause trade openness. In conclusion, this paper argues that a transformed education system can provide the knowledge base essential for promoting and sustaining economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Owing to the continuous increase in the volume of remittances inflow to Nigeria and the seeming synergy between capital market and economic growth, this study examines the role of remittances in fostering sustainability of the Nigeria capital market for the period 1981 to 2020. The study used Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling approach to co-integration analysis and based on relevant theory, the model was estimated. Estimates showed that remittances significantly and positively impact capital market in the long run. The result also shows that the capital market adjusts speedily to the tune of 64 percent towards convergence in any displacement. Other diagnostics analyses conducted, such as the causality test, affirmed the existence of unidirectional causality running from remittances to the capital market. CUSUM and CUSUMQ tests attest to the stability of the model, which makes it amenable for policy prediction. The findings bring the policy implications and recommendations to the fore. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the dynamic effects of external debt stocks on real economic growth in Nigeria—incorporating debt services, interest rate, inflation, and capital formation. The study utilizes annual time series from 1981 to 2017 employing the dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration bounds test methodology. Empirical findings indicated that external debt stocks and debt services have a significant effect on real economic growth both in the short and long run. The result of the pairwise conditional Granger causality gives a short run procyclical bidirectional nexus between capital formation and economic growth. Thus, external debt stocks affect real GDP via the channels of accumulated debts, debt services, and macroeconomic variable fluctuations in the long run. Result obtained supports the objective of the Nigerian Debt Management Office in optimally managing the nation's external debt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The contribution of different agricultural subsectors to economic growth in Nigeria is investigated and further suggests policy implications for investing in each of these subsectors. To this end, Johansen cointegration test and Gregory–Hansen test for cointegration with regime shift, vector error correction model (VECM), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), Granger causality, and frequency domain causality test are employed for data from 1981 to 2016. This paper further highlights the long and causal dynamics between the selected agricultural subsector, namely forestry, crop production, fishery and livestock, and economic growth. Findings from time and frequency domain causality tests indicate a one‐way causality running from various subsectors of agriculture to economic growth in Nigeria, meaning how various subsectors of agriculture are important for predicting economic growth. In addition, there is 54% speed of adjustment from the error correction model, suggesting a need for diversification of the economy into the agricultural sector as a means for sustainable economic growth in the face of the continuous plunge in the global oil price. In the long‐run, the effect of forestry, crop production, and fishery on economic growth is statistically significant and positive. These outcomes have inherent policy implication(s), which are elucidated in the concluding section. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study analysed the nexus between agricultural exports and economic growth in Nigeria. Time series data covering the period between 1980 and 2018 were utilized by the study. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey-Fuller statistics, Johansen's co-integration method, and vector error correction mechanism (VECM). The results of the time series analysis revealed that the first difference of the variables is stationary and co-integrated. Descriptive analysis results reveal a fluctuating trend in the volume of agricultural exports and economic growth with an average of 351.99 tonnes and $24,200,000 respectively. The contribution of agricultural exports to economic growth declined progressively, with an average of 7.09 percent. VECM results reveal that agricultural exports volume and ratio of average world price to producer price of agricultural export commodities negatively affects economic growth. While exchange rate affects economic growth positively. The study concluded that agricultural exports, exchange rate, and the ratio of average world price to producer price of agricultural export commodities are significant determinants of economic growth in Nigeria. Thus, embarking on agricultural policy interventions that will stimulate increased agricultural export supply, stable producer prices of agricultural export commodities and a friendly macro-economic environment for agricultural exports would promote economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oil price fluctuation greatly affects the economy of oil producing-net-exporting small open economies of developing countries. This study investigates the nonlinear relationship between oil price volatility and economic growth in Nigeria, covering the period 1981 to 2019. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is adopted to establish the asymmetric cointegration status of oil price volatility and GDP growth. The switching point between the variables is estimated using the threshold regression approach. The results from the NARDL analysis reveal that the relationship between oil price volatility and economic growth is cointegrated in the long run and has an asymmetrical relationship. Furthermore, the threshold regression investigation indicates that the switching point for the oil price in the relationship with economic growth is US$48.263 per barrel. Hence, whenever oil price falls below the threshold, there is a negative effect on the country's economic growth. Therefore, the study recommends that the government take advantage of oil export earnings and make some savings whenever oil price goes above the threshold. The savings can be used to assist in developing the other sources of foreign exchange earnings and sustain the country's development effort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the causal effects of financial development and political stability on economic growth utilizing recent econometric techniques. The study utilizes yearly data spanning between 1996 and 2018. The study used Bayer and Hanck Cointegration, FMOLS, DOLS, and Breitung and Candelon frequency-domain causality techniques. The Breitung and Candelon technique's advantage is that it permits us to differentiate causality in the short term, medium-term, and long-term at different frequencies. The study's motive is to address the questions: What is the long-run and causal impact of political stability and financial development on economic growth? The findings from the FMOLS and DOLS long-run estimators revealed that political stability exerts a negative impact on economic growth while no evidence significant linkage between financial development and economic growth. Furthermore, the findings from the frequency-domain causality test revealed that in the short-run, medium-run, and long-run, political stability could predict economic growth in Nigeria, and there is no evidence of causality from economic growth to political stability in the short-run, medium-run, and long-run. Lastly, our findings reveal no causal interconnection from financial development to economic growth in the short-run, mediumrun, and long-run, while there is no evidence of causality from economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fluctuations in oil prices have caused economic contractions and challenges to oil-exporting economies. In particular, Nigeria suffers both the previous and current global oil price shocks and this has raised concerns among policymakers, governments, and economic analysts because of the impact of oil and oil prices in Nigeria’s macroeconomic development. However, this paper investigates the role of diversification on economic growth in Nigeria using annual data from 1986 to 2018. The techniques applied showed that only remittances and official development assistance have affected economic growth in the short run. However, the coefficients of one period lagged indicated that the system is capable of adjusting to its long-run equilibrium condition after some shocks in the system. The findings from variance decomposition indicated that diversification plays a positive role on economic growth in both the short and long-run horizons. By overall implication, the study concludes that diversification has a positive role on Nigeria’s economic growth. Therefore, the study recommends the need for the government to provide active and inclusive policies such as soft loans and commercial agricultural programs to improve its export of agricultural output competitiveness, improve supervisory and regulatory frameworks in the financial sector to ease remittances inflow. For these reasons, diversifying the economy from oil revenue is the ultimate goal for achieving sustainable economic growth and development goals or targets by the year 2030 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to explore the relationships between environmental quality, economic growth, and energy use. A panel data set of 25 years (1990–2014) for five OPEC countries (Algeria, Nigeria, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela) is used, and panel unit root tests, panel cointegration tests, panel Granger causality tests, fully modified ordinary Least square (FMOLS), and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) methods are employed as estimation strategies. Our results show that in the long-run, there are two-way causal relationships between GDP and energy consumption for all countries. Bidirectional causal relationships between GDP and CO2 emissions are also observed in all countries except Algeria. The same relationships are also observed between energy consumption and CO2 emissions in all countries with an exception in Venezuela where unidirectional causality running from CO2 to energy consumption is found. The impact of GDP on the CO2 emissions is the highest in Saudi Arabia followed by Venezuela, Nigeria, and Indonesia. The effect of energy use on the CO2 emissions is the greatest in Algeria followed by Indonesia and Nigeria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study explores the link between electricity consumption, urbanization, and economic growth in Nigeria from 1971 to 2014. The bounds test and the Bayer and Hanck (Journal of Time Series Analysis, 2013, 34(1), 83–95) cointegration tests affirm cointegrating relationship. Electricity consumption increases economic growth in both time periods, while the impact of urbanization appears to inhibit growth. The fully modified OLS, dynamic OLS, and the canonical cointegrating regression confirm the robustness of the findings. The vector error correction model Granger causality test supports the neutrality hypothesis in the short run and the feedback hypothesis among the variables in the long run. Therefore, policies to ensure efficient electricity supply, curb rapid urbanization, and promote sustainable economic growth were suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study attempts to fill the prior knowledge gap in the nexus between trade openness and economic growth in Nigeria by incorporating the role of institutional quality. The study covers the period from 1984 to 2017 and employs three indicators of trade openness including total trade, import trade, and export trade. Cointegration among the variables is examined using the ARDL bounds testing approach. The results provide evidence of a long-run relationship among the variables. The estimates suggest that export trade has a significant positive impact on economic growth while the impact of import trade on economic growth is negative and significant. The results also show that the negative long-run effects of import trade on economic growth in Nigeria decreases as institutional quality (quality of governance) improves. These empirical results have important policy implications for Nigeria. Among others, this study highlights the needs to improve the quality of governance in the country. Good governance and quality institutions can help channel the dividends of trade openness into growth-enhancing activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Nigerian economy has been faced with high inflation rate, accompanied with a devastated exchange rate and a slow growth rate of the economy. The authors, in this paper, have examined inflation anchoring, exchange rate and sectoral economic growth nexuses in Nigeria. A multivariate cointegration approach was adopted. The result shows that inflation anchoring with a rising exchange rate would have contractionary effects on economic growth, agricultural output, industrial output and trade output in Nigeria. However, such policy would not have significant impacts on the building and construction sectors as well as service sector of the economy. The inflation threshold for Nigeria has been found to be 9 percent. Thus, inflation anchoring policy may be meaningful in Nigeria if exchange rate is well managed and the sub sectors of the economy are developed. A piecemeal disbursement of loan facilities for accountability, at low interest rate to the agricultural, industrial and trade sectors remains promising in promoting the growth of the sectors, while a low inflation rate is pursued and secured. Studies in future on the subject may essentially examine how inflation anchoring would affect economic growth in Nigeria without interacting inflation anchoring with exchange rate in their models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study examined the impact of interest rate and economic growth as determinant of the firm’s investment decision in Nigeria between the period of 1989 and 2019. The study disaggregated interest rate and economic growth into external borrowing, exchange rate, inflation rate, and gross domestic product in line with the predicated theories reviewed. The data were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. Based on the mixed level of stationarity of the variables as revealed by the unit root test, the study made use of the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to analyze the data. The bound test revealed that; there was the presence of co-integration (long-run relationship) among the dependent and all the explanatory variables consequently the study estimated the ARDLECM. The findings from the result point to a unique long-term relationship between interest rates, external borrowing, exchange rate, and economic growth. The result also revealed that there is no strong empirical evidence that there is a link between the interest rate and investment decisions in Nigeria. It was concluded that as a prerequisite for economic growth, the government must embark on growth-enhancing reforms and be tender to the behavior of interest rates in the economy. This will guide the formulation of private sector development policy as an enabler of global economic growth in Nigeria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the nonlinear relationship between financial development and economic growth in Nigeria, covering the period from 1980 to 2018, in an effort to explain the direction of linearities and determine the exact threshold policy points for financial development variables. The financial development proxies adopted in the study are broad money and credit to the private sector. While deploying the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach to ascertain the asymmetric cointegration status of financial development and GDP growth, the turning point between the variables of study is estimated using the threshold regression approach. The findings from the NARDL analysis show that the relationship between the financial development variables and economic growth are cointegrated in the long run and have a U-shaped asymmetrical relationship. Furthermore, the discrete threshold regression analysis reveals that while the switching point for broad money is 17.73% of GDP, it is 6.03% of GDP for credit to the private sector. Therefore, whenever the level of the financial development indicators falls below the estimated tipping point, there is a drag on the country's economic growth. The study recommends the implementation of the financial development threshold points as the minimum levels by which to achieve positive effects on the country's economic growth. A further recommendation to achieve rapid progress in financial development entails the rapid monetisation of financial transactions and the expansion of financial access as well as the strengthening of efficiency and regulation of the financial markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main objective of the study is to investigate the effect of real exchange rate on the rate of unemployment in Nigeria. Time series data spanning from 1983 to 2015 which were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and Debt Management Office (DMO) statistical bulletin for 2019 and also the World Development Indicators (WDI) (2019) were used for the analysis. The ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration was used to analyse the data. The results from the estimations show that real exchange rate has both in the short and long run, led to increase in the rate of unemployment. Other covariates in the study such as economic growth and credit to the private sector were only significant in the short run, while external debt is a significant determinant of unemployment both in the short and long run. In conclusion, it is recommended that the government should strengthen the economy through diversification, such as to improve the quality of the local industries to attenuate shocks that come as a result of exchange rate volatilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper attempts to find out the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in MINT economies namely, Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey, during 1981-2015. It investigates the causal link between the two variables, i.e. whether FDI causes economic growth or economic growth causes FDI. To test the relationship between the variables, panel data of four countries is analysed. Cointegration technique, Granger causality test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) have been used to validate the relationship between the variables. The analysis of the results shows that there exists cointegration between FDI and economic, i.e. there exists a long-run relationship between FDI and economic growth. Longrun causality was found moving from GDP to FDI in Mexico, Nigeria and Turkey. This is important for policy decision-making as barriers to FDI inflows should be removed, and growth can be maximized by increasing the capacity to absorb FDI inflows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]