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Fertility and per capita income are now positively associated across most high income OECD countries. Low fertility and a gender wage gap persist in Japan. This paper presents a model where endogenous increases in the price of child-care and gender equity in the allocation of capital play important roles in the effect of per capita income growth and rising female relative wages on fertility. Results indicate that a positive relationship between fertility and per capita income is not robust: overall fertility rises with female relative wages if child-care productivity is sufficiently high; female relative wages may not rise with per capita income if men work with increasing capital relative to women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the effect of federalism on fertility and growth. In a model with human capital accumulation and endogenous fertility, two regimes of education finance are compared: central and local. I find that local education finance yields higher growth at the price of increased inequality. The effect of federalism on total and differential fertility rates depends on the elasticity of substitution between children and consumption. The paper also empirically examines the relationship between fertility rates and fiscal decentralisation on a panel of OECD countries and finds a weak negative effect of decentralisation on total and differential (poor minus rich) fertility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship between trust and economic growth. Taking panel data and using a fixed-effects estimation for a 41-country sample over the time period from 1980 to 2004 and with a total of 129 observations, the paper points out that economic growth is negatively related to an increase in trust. This negative finding is in contrast to most empirical findings using a cross-sectional design. The common knowledge which has governed the nature of discussions in social science and economics for the last ten years, that trust is generally positively related to economic performance, must be seriously questioned. From a policy point of view an increase in trust is crucial for countries with low levels of trust, but can likely be neglected by countries with sufficient levels of trust and may even hamper economic performance in countries with high levels of trust. The relationship is tested in the context of EU countries, OECD countries and developing countries. Interpersonal trust and systemic trust is differentiated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is significant academic evidence that growth in one country has a positive impact on growth in neighbouring countries. This paper contributes to this literature by analysing the heterogeneous strength of growth spillovers across world regions and by investigating the contribution of transport and communication infrastructure to explain this heterogeneity and promote neighbourhood effects. By defining neighbourhood on the basis of membership of regional trade agreements, we focus on spillovers that work through regional integration and trade. The analysis finds significant evidence for heterogeneity in growth spillovers, which are strong between OECD countries and essentially absent in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We further find strong interaction between infrastructure and being a landlocked country. This suggests that growth spillovers from regional 'success stories' in SSA and other lagging world regions will depend on first strengthening the channels through which such spillovers can spread - most importantly connective infrastructure such as transport and telecommunication links. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applies the panel LM unit root tests with heterogeneous structural breaks in level by Im et al. ( Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 67 (2005), pp. 393–419) to re-examine the validity of hysteresis in the unemployment rates of 19 OECD countries. Our empirical findings are favourable to the stationarity of the unemployment rates, i.e., the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis is strongly rejected. Our results suggest that shocks to unemployment rates are temporary and soon converge when we control for breaks. A major policy implication of the study is that a fiscal or monetary stabilization policy would not have permanent effects on the unemployment rates of the 19 OECD countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we argue that tax-smoothing results based on total tax revenues may be of limited importance if in fact governments are concerned with the inter-temporal distortionary effects of many kinds of taxes, when electoral and partisan motives also have to be taken into account. We develop an inter-temporal model that predicts that tax revenue mix should follow random walks. The model is tested with international data using both time series and panel-based unit root tests. We find that during the examined period, 1973–2003, governments are not optimizing tax components in the sense of Barro. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper illustrates how convergence equations can be used to analyse the dynamics of the income distribution using a simple extension of standard techniques. Using data for a sample of OECD countries, I estimate an equation that relates growth in income per capita to the standard growth theory variables, government size and labour market performance indicators. The estimated model and the underlying data are then used in a convergence accounting exercise that yields quantitative estimates of the contribution of each of these variables to the relative growth performance of each country and to observed convergence in the sample. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In contrast to much of the recent emphasis on micro economic reform and market oriented economic policy, there is a strong argument in favour of considering political institutional factors. In particular, these include the power of labour in systems of collective bargaining and in broader policy formulation institutions which is an essential element of successful economic policy, especially the achievement of low rates of unemployment. The research reported in this paper is aimed at developing an explanation of the ability of the organized labour movement to promote its political interests through the institutional decision making structures of modern capitalist economies. We argue that, where labour participation is formalised in these institutional arrangements, specific policy measures conducive to low unemployment will be favoured, including relatively high levels of public capital expenditure and the protection of manufacturing employment. Most comparative studies of the consequences of collective action and of political intervention in the market employ a cross-sectional design that limits the number of cases in statistical analyses to the number of countries covered. In this paper we present the results of an analysis of comparative data on 11 OECD countries using a pooled time series regression procedure that enables us to use many more cases than is possible with the cross-sectional design. In this way we arrive at more firmly grounded conclusions as to the efficacy of labour movement strategies in reducing unemployment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Economics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Using data from OECD economies, we show that inflation targeters suffered smaller output losses during disinflations when compared to nontargeters. We also study why some countries choose to inflation target while others do not and find that higher average inflation and smaller debt levels render the adoption of the regime more likely. Applying Heckman's procedure to control for selection bias does not alter the link between inflation targeting and less costly disinflations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on a re-parameterised Blanchflower–Oswald model this paper uses long macro-data from the OECD countries to discriminate between the Philips curve and the wage curve and examines whether there are any differences in wage dynamics between Europe and the United States. The evidence gives support for the Phillips curve and shows that wage dynamics are no different between the United States and Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Economics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

To date, more than half of the output in the major OECD countries has been knowledge based. This paper argues, however, that the current growth-oriented exposition of the knowledge economy rooted in the conventional concept of free competition is insufficient for promoting the long-term development of human societies. Although we now live in a knowledge economy, most countries have been concurrently characterized by serious phenomena such as environmental degradation and growing economic inequality. The prospect of meeting global commitments, for instance, to reducing inequality, as outlined in the 1995 World Summit for Social Development in Copenhagen and endorsed in the United Nations Millennium Declaration, is bleak and the global society as a whole has become less and less sustainable. Indeed, the world is better seen as composed of numerous (but finite) knowledge economies. To take up the challenge of sustainable development of human societies, we have to develop a pluralistic perspective of the knowledge economy and fully acknowledge the characteristics of each unique knowledge system (such as indigenous knowledge possessed by a small tribe). Once we can help each individual knowledge system develop into a specific set of economic institutions that freely exchange concepts and beliefs with each other in a global environment, we will be able to develop a global economy that embodies a value-committed basis that assures a sustainable path of development on earth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper develops a simple political-economy model of unemployment benefit determination in a small open economy characterized by bargaining between firms and unions. The authors derive a number of comparative static results and present empirical results for a panel of OECD countries that are broadly consistent with the theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper tests whether the observed high persistence of unemployment rates in most OECD countries is due to (full) hysteresis against the alternative that it is caused by adjustment towards an increased natural rate. The analysis relies on standard univariate unit root tests. Usually such tests cannot reject the presence of a unit root in the unemployment rate, pointing to full hysteresis. This paper shows that the unit root hypothesis can clearly be rejected once infrequent level-shifts are allowed for. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of 'tied' loans with concessionary interest rates as an incentive for developing countries to procure capital goods from industrialized countries has been an on-going subject of dispute amongst the latter in regard to their trade distorting impact. A major initiative by the OECD in 1992 was designed to minimize this problem, by prohibiting the use of such loans for projects that were deemed to be commercially viable. This paper assesses the impact of the change in 'rules' on the disbursement of concessionary loans and discusses issues that remain unresolved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Europeans work much less than Americans. Some studies claim this is due to Europe's high taxes and that Europeans would gain by adopting US tax rates and work time. I argue that Americans would gain by reducing work time to Europe's level. Due to historical experience, Europe is able to internalise work-time-related negative externalities by enacting restrictive work-time policies, while the United States is not, resulting in a prisoner's dilemma equilibrium and 'overworking trap.' A simple model and work-time data are used to derive the US welfare gain from reducing work time to Europe's level. Findings are as follows: (i) parameter values are consistent with experimental results on own vs. other people's income value; (ii) the welfare gain's present value is between 80 and 120% of annual welfare; and (iii) a European policy that reduces work time excessively remains beneficial if the reduction is less than twice the optimal one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explore an issue at the nexus of domestic competition policy and international trade, the interaction between goods trade and market power in domestic trade and distribution sectors. We examine the effect of variations in conditions of domestic competition in services on trade volumes in goods in the cases of both linear and nonlinear import demand, including standard form CES-based gravity models of bilateral trade flows. Theory suggests a set of linkages between service-sector pricing and goods trade supported by econometrics involving imports of 22 OECD countries vis-a-vis 69 exporters. Competition in distribution services affects the volume of trade in goods. Additionally, because of interaction between tariffs and pricing, the market structure of the domestic service sector becomes increasingly important as tariffs are reduced. Indeed, depending on the degree of competition, market access concessions on tariffs may be effectively undone in some cases by changes in margins. For exporters, we find that service competition in destination markets matters most for exporters from smaller, poorer countries. Our results also suggest that while negotiated agreements leading to cross-border services liberalisation may boost goods trade as well, they may also lead to a fall in goods trade when such liberalisation involves FDI leading to increased service sector concentration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the effects of fiscal convergence on business cycle volatility and growth. Using a panel of 11 EMU and 21 OECD countries and 40 years of data, we find that countries with similar government budget positions tend to have smoother business cycles. That is, fiscal convergence (in the form of persistently similar ratios of government surplus/deficit to GDP) is systematically associated with smoother business cycles. We also find evidence that reduced business cycle volatility through higher fiscal convergence stimulates growth. Our empirical results are economically and statistically significant, and robust. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The hallmark of the recent development and growth literature is the quest to identify institutions that explain significant portions of the observed differences in living standards. There are two drawbacks to the prominent approaches that focus either on the global sample, or on developing nations. First, it is unclear whether the identified institutions also hold explanatory power in advanced countries. Second, it is unclear whether the identified institutions matter to the same degree across all countries, or whether perhaps an altogether different set of institutions matters in advanced countries. To address these issues, we examine parameter heterogeneity in prominent approaches to institutions and economic performance. We find that parameter heterogeneity is so strong that it requires a new set of instruments to control for endogeneity. At the same time, however, we confirm that a common set of economically important institutions does exist among advanced and developing nations. The impact of these institutions is shown to vary substantially across subsamples; they are about three times more important in developing countries than in OECD countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifies structural shifts in manufacturing export performance of the major Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) economies from 1963 to 1989. Responses of a country's exports to the growth in world demand; Time variation in income elasticities; Evaluation of the relative successes and failures of the different OECD economies.

We analysed sickness and disability policies for the working‐age population in a number of OECD countries, between the years 1990 and 2014. Existing evidence suggests that there has been a broad shift in focus from passive income maintenance to employment incentives and reintegration policies. We have updated detailed policy scores provided by the OECD to estimate model‐based country clusters. Our results indicate that countries have pursued different types of reforms consisting of a combination of integration and compensation measures. The reforms of recent decades have led to the emergence of a distinct cluster of Northern and Continental European countries characterised by a combination of strong employment‐oriented policies and comparatively high social protection levels. An analysis of recent reforms shows a continued expansion of measures that foster employment as well as instances of retrenchment in the compensation dimension. Diversity of policy settings across country groups, however, remains substantial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated whether in times of budget constraints and in countries with relatively large family policy spending, family policy has an advantage in the budget competition with old-age expenditures, compared with countries with a lower level of family policy spending. We employed pooled time-series cross-sectional analysis of 24 OECD countries from 1998 to 2011. Our findings suggest that the initial level of family spending tends to moderate the crowding-out effect of old-age spending, indicating that the more mature a family spending policy is, the more it resists budget competition from old-age policy. Furthermore, the size of government debt was found to have an insignificant effect on welfare budgeting. Our findings indicate that retrenchment in welfare spending for old age cannot be fully explained by budget constraints. Politics among interest groups associated with different welfare programmes can be an important determinant in explaining changes in spending on each welfare programme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article uses survival analysis to investigate the duration of Spanish firms' trade relationships by destination over 1997-2006. Whereas firm export status is highly persistent, firms' destination portfolio is very dynamic: a typical firm-country exporting relationship has a median duration of 2 years. Yet, if a firm manages to export to a country beyond 2 years the risk of exiting that market sharply falls afterwards. The results indicate that not only firm heterogeneity but also destination heterogeneity are crucial to explain survival in export markets. In particular, country (political) risk heavily shapes the effect of firm, product, and other destination characteristics on the length of trade relationships. Whereas firm productivity, comparative advantage, partners' GDP, and proximity enhance duration of trade with low-risk countries, they have no effect on trade survival with high-risk countries. On the contrary, information spillovers are particularly relevant to enhance survival of trade relationships with high-risk countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Barriers to international trade are known to be large but because of data limitations it is hard to measure them directly for a large number of countries over many years. To address this problem, I derive a micro-founded measure of bilateral trade costs that indirectly infers trade frictions from observable trade data. I show that this trade cost measure is consistent with a broad range of leading trade theories including Ricardian and heterogeneous firms models. In an application I show that U.S. trade costs with major trading partners declined on average by about 40 between 1970 and 2000, with Mexico and Canada experiencing the biggest reductions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study surveys the empirical evidence on the pro-competitive effect of international trade and analyses the determinants of price-cost margins for OECD countries between 1970 and 2003. The main objective was to focus on the quantification of the impact of imports on margins, and understand why, despite trade liberalization, price-cost margins have not fallen overall. On average, imports would have contributed to a large decrease of five percentage points in the price-cost margins. However, these effects seem to have been partially counterbalanced by the impacts of financial deepening and disinflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate for 26 OECD economies whether their current account imbalances to GDP are driven by stochastic trends. Regarding bounded stationarity as the more natural counterpart of sustainability, results from Phillips–Perron tests for unit root and bounded unit root processes are contrasted. While the former hint at stationarity of current account imbalances for 12 economies, the latter indicate bounded stationarity for only six economies. Through panel-based test statistics, current account imbalances are diagnosed as bounded non-stationary. Thus, (spurious) rejections of the unit root hypothesis might be due to the existence of bounds reflecting hidden policy controls or financial crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate the impact of financial liberalisation on consumption in seven major industrial countries, and find a marked shift in behaviour, notably a decline in short-run income elasticities and a rise in short-run wealth and interest rate elasticities. A corollary is that consumption equations estimated over both pre- and post-liberalisation regimes may be misleading, and either a form of testing as presented here or a shortening of the sample period may be appropriate for accurate forecasting and simulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an efficiency wage economy, lump-sum severance pay from which shirkers can be excluded raises employment. However, severance payments are usually related to wages. It is shown that earnings-related, mandated severance pay will have ambiguous employment effects if effort can be varied continuously. A substitution of the earnings-related for the lump-sum component reduces employment. Thus, the prevalent form of severance payments in OECD countries might have less advantageous employment effects than previously conjectured. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the effects of fiscal transparency and political polarization on the prevalence of electoral cycles in fiscal balance. While some recent political economy literature on electoral cycles identifies such cycles mainly in weak and recent democracies, in contrast we show, conditioning on a new index of institutional fiscal transparency, that electoral cycles in fiscal balance are a feature of many advanced industrialized economies. Using a sample of 19 OECD countries in the 1990s, we identify a persistent pattern of electoral cycles in low(er) transparency countries, while no such cycles can be observed in high(er) transparency countries. Furthermore, we find, in accordance with recent theory, that electoral cycles are larger in politically more polarized countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using Mancur Olson's logic of collective action it is shown that high levels of unionization in the labour market are not necessarily as harmful as liberalists believe, and centralization of industrial relations is not necessarily as useful as corporatists suppose. High levels of unionization are harmful especially in decentralized systems of industrial relations. Centralized industrial relations are a useful way of solving problems of collective action especially in highly unionized labour markets. In special conditions centralized industrial relations can be justified with a micro level theory of rational social action. The micro foundations of centralized industrial relations seem to be compatible with the micro foundations of neo-classical economic theory. Therefore, we should no longer see liberal-pluralism and corporatism as competing theories, but rather as complementary sub-theories of a more general economic and political theory. In empirical analyses hypotheses are tested using regression analyses with interaction terms and cross-national data on inflation and unemployment in 18 OECD-countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]