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In this paper, we reassess the impact of inequality on growth. The majority of previous papers have employed (system) GMM estimation. However, recent simulation studies indicate that the problems of GMM when using non‐stationary data such as GDP have been grossly underestimated in applied research. Concerning predetermined regressors such as inequality, GMM is outperformed by a simple least‐squares dummy variable estimator. Additionally, new data have recently become available that not only double the sample size compared to most previous studies, but also address the substantial measurement issues that have plagued past research. Using these new data and an LSDV estimator, we provide an analysis that both accounts for the conditions where inequality is beneficial or detrimental to growth and distinguishes between market‐driven inequality and redistribution. We show that there are situations where market inequality affects growth positively while redistribution is simultaneously beneficial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to propose a model where trade has a direct and positive impact on growth rate of two trading nations beyond the level effect. We use the idea of virtual trade in intermediates induced by non-overlapping time zones and show how trade can increase the equilibrium optimal rate of growth. In this structure the trade impact goes beyond the level effect and directly causes growth. Typically standard models of trade cannot generate an automatic growth impact. Virtual trade may allow production to continue uninterrupted in separated time zones such as between the USA and India, and that can lead to higher growth for both countries. Later we extend the model to incorporate the accumulation of skills which becomes necessary for sustaining steady state growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the scanty and inadequate studies on Serbia's growth performance before the First World War, this paper presents production‐side GDP estimates for Serbia for six years between 1867 and 1910. It probes into the growth dynamics, assessing convergence with the more developed countries of north‐western Europe, as well as progress towards achieving modern economic growth. Although the economy showed some dynamism in terms of overall GDP, per capita GDP in pre‐First World War Serbia grew by only 0.28 per cent per annum, as much of the overall GDP growth was eroded by rapid population growth. Far from converging with north‐western Europe, Serbia continued to fall behind. Sluggish structural transformation and slow income per capita growth suggest that Serbia's transition to modern economic growth was in its infancy. Growth in the dominant agricultural sector was extensive, driven by expanding arable land and population growth. Land was affordable and easy to obtain; hence, peasants invested little in new technologies. Meanwhile, the modern industrial and service sectors were below a threshold that could sustain rapid growth. Nevertheless, this study also highlights the rapid expansion of a small modern sector and export diversification that reflected emergent 'green shoots' in 1905–10. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimating the contribution of enslaved workers to output and growth in the United States during the first half of the nineteenth century is a crucial building block to better understand the contours of nineteenth‐century US economic history, and more generally, the connection between slavery and capitalism. Existing estimates only present a partial picture and are potentially problematic. In this paper, we use data on enslaved person valuations to calculate the contribution made by enslaved workers to regional and national gross national product (GNP) in 1839 and 1859 and to the growth in per capita output in the 20 years before the Civil War. We find that in the United States, enslaved workers were responsible for somewhere between 12.49 per cent and 18.0 per cent of the increase in output per capita between 1839 and 1859. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The private sector, after shifting fortunes in development theory and practice over the years, is now widely recognised as the key to economic growth, which itself is indispensable for poverty reduction. The Development Studies Association (DSA) Annual Conference in 2006 brought together academics, private sector actors, NGOs and policy makers to share insights and experiences on how this vital contribution to growth, development and poverty reduction can be realised. This paper summarises the main themes and discussions of the conference and introduces the papers selected for inclusion in this conference issue. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent headlines frequently refer to rising inequality and its implication on economic growth and social welfare. Addressing the latter is difficult and requires more than simply looking at GDP, as Kuznets long ago pointed out. In this paper we focus on the importance of the income measure underlying the inequality measure when examining the relationship between GDP growth and inequality. We create a mapping using Census Bureau household survey data and Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) consumer expenditure data to create distributional measures of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) personal income. We show that for the period 2000-2012, inequality using personal income is substantively lower than inequality measured using Census Bureau money income, and the trends in both inequality and median income are different. This demonstrates the importance of using a measure a national accounts based measure of income when examining the relationships between inequality and growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is concerned with the analysis of growth using cross-country/ state growth regressions. The paper uses the example of state level growth in India and a case study of the growth experience of the state of Kerala in the 1990s. In practise empirical results using cross-country/ state growth regressions remain disappointing. Orthodox analysis tends to stop with the assumption that it is only an empirical problem. This paper goes on to show that there are also theoretical and finally methodological-ideological problems why empirical results are poor. Each successive problem is engaged with by fewer and fewer researchers. In conclusion, this paper makes a case for the greater use of country case studies. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents a general equilibrium model of a developing economy with a capital intensive formal sector and a large informal sector with sector-specific capital to analyse the effects of investments on the sectoral returns to capital, sectoral wage rates, and composition of output and employment. Beginning with capital market disequilibrium (unequal sectoral rates of return) and labour market distortion (formal-informal wage gap), the model traces the evolution of the economy till capital market equilibrium is attained. The investments in the formal sector equalise the wages (a 'turning point' in growth à la Lewis) and reduces the size of the informal sector. The sectoral rates of returns equalise only if there is no factor intensity reversal, otherwise the economy specialises in the production of formal goods. The investments in the informal sector equalise the rates of return, do not affect the size of the formal sector and finally, a formal-informal wage gap persists provided factor intensities are not reversed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper surveys the empirical literature on export and import diversification and its linkages with growth. We review widely used measures of diversification and the evidence about their evolution focusing on how export diversification relates to trade liberalization and economic development. We also discuss the linkages between trade diversification and productivity at the firm and industry level, highlighting new advances on the linkages between import diversification and productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper tests the effects of the impact of financial globalization on economic growth, examining its interaction with financial instability for a sample of 72 developing countries over the period 1972–2011, using dynamic panel estimator 'two‐step Generalized Method of Moments' (two‐step system GMM). The main results of the paper are the following: (i) financial instability and indebtedness‐globalization decrease growth; (ii) financial globalization and investment‐globalization increase growth; (iii) indebtedness‐globalization increases the effect of financial instability on growth; (iv) investment‐globalization decreases the effect of financial instability on growth; and (vi) financial globalization decreases the effect of financial instability on growth. These results are robust in a set of tests consisting of the insertion of alternative variables of financial instability, the inclusion of new control variables, inter alia an indicator of banking crises, using different time periods, and changing of the composition of the sample. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This study addresses how the sustainability crisis may be overcome by using alternatives to the conventional economic growth paradigm. Based on a literature review, the paper identifies and discusses three alternatives, namely negative, zero and positive economic growth. These alternatives are compared from a feasibility and policy perspective in relation to the transition toward sustainable development. The three alternatives are associated with very far‐reaching sets of policies that have different focal points with regard to how the paradigm shift from the conventional growth paradigm can be realized. All these alternatives, however, challenge the effectiveness of market forces. The shortcomings of the alternatives (resistance to voluntary transition with negative or zero growth, no proper consideration of the rebound effect for positive growth) hinder the transition and must be further addressed by policy‐makers in public and private sectors, as well as by civil society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Empirical results on the links between trade openness and economic growth often suggest that, in the long run, more outward‐oriented countries register better economic growth. However, a similar level of trade openness can hide different types of trade structures. The aim of this paper was to enrich the way of measuring trade openness taking into account two different dimensions of countries’ integration in world trade: export quality and export variety. Based on the estimation of an endogenous growth model on a panel of 169 countries between 1988 and 2014 using a generalised method of moments estimator, our results confirm that countries exporting higher quality products and new varieties grow more rapidly. More importantly, we find a non‐linear pattern between the export ratio and the quality of the export basket, suggesting that openness to trade may impact growth negatively for countries which are specialised in low‐quality products. A non‐linear relationship between export variety, the export ratio and growth is also found, suggesting that countries increasing their exports will grow more rapidly after reaching a certain degree of the extensive margin of exports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the factors explaining the sustained fall in poverty experienced in Kazakhstan in the period 2001-2009. It examines the contribution of economic growth and redistribution policies to poverty reduction through an analysis of household survey data. It finds that growth has been strongly pro-poor. Growth was the main driver behind the fall in poverty in the first half of the decade, but redistribution gained in importance in the latter part of the decade. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a simultaneous equations approach, this paper empirically investigates the impact of two types of public infrastructure, transportation infrastructure and knowledge infrastructure, on industrial geography, regional income disparities, and growth across 286 cities in China. It is found that an improvement in transportation infrastructure that reduces trade costs on goods increases growth and decreases income gap at the expense of increasing industrial agglomeration between cities. Therefore, this paper confirms the existence of a trade-off between spatial equity (more even spatial distribution of economic activities) and spatial efficiency (higher growth rate). However, for knowledge infrastructure that reduces trade costs on ideas, it is found that it increases growth but also decreases income gap and industrial agglomeration simultaneously. Moreover, the impact of knowledge infrastructure is found to be larger in the case of high labor mobility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the pattern of poverty, growth and inequality in Ethiopia in the recent decade. The result shows that growth, to a large extent depends on structural factors such as initial conditions, vagaries of nature, external shocks and peace and stability both in Ethiopia and in the region. Using a rich household panel data, the paper also shows that there is a strong correlation between growth and inequality. In such set up, the effect of implementing a pro-poor growth strategy, compared to allowing the status quo to prevail, can be quite dramatic. On the basis of realistic assumptions, the paper shows that from a baseline in 2000 of a 30 per cent poverty share, over 10 years at growth of 4 per cent per capita, poverty would decline from 44 to 26 per cent for distribution neutral growth (DNG) (i.e. no change in the aggregate income distribution). In contrast, were the growth increment distributed equally across percentiles (equally distributed gains of growth, EDG), the poverty would decline by over half, to 15 per cent, a difference of almost eleven percentage points. Thus, ‘distribution matters’, even, or especially in a poor country like Ethiopia. On the basis of these results the paper outlines policies that could help to design a sustainable pro-poor growth strategy. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After three decades of market development, the problem in China is no longer how to achieve growth but how to manage its consequences and how to sustain it. One of the most important consequences is the growing inequality – between skilled and unskilled workers, between the genders, between rural and urban areas, and between inland and coastal regions. The papers in this symposium shed light on the important issue of inequality during rapid market development in China. Analysis based on ground level empirical studies can help us to understand better the sources of the rising inequality and to illuminate the nature of the future challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the factors driving manufacturing growth accelerations in a sample of 134 developing countries over the period 1970 to 2014. We first identify growth acceleration episodes of manufacturing value added (MVA) by their year of initiation and according to a country's income classification. We then estimate a probit model to explain what factors predict these MVA growth accelerations. Our results show that human capital and institutions represent contextual factors that favor the growth of manufacturing, together with macroeconomic policies related to investment, and openness to foreign trade and capital. We also find that most of these factors not only foster episodic accelerations of industry, but they contribute as well to a sustained process of industrialization that characterized the process of economic growth of a few successful countries over the period 1970 to 2014. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between interest rates, inflation and economic growth using a long dataset for the UK. The approach adopted enables us to identify structural breaks in the dynamic system (vector autoregression (VAR)). We find interest rates respond much more strongly to growth and inflation over recent decades, and forecast error variance decomposition analysis indicates there is increasing interconnectedness between the variables in recent years. Economic policymakers need to carefully monitor the linkages between these variables and be prepared to adjust their monetary policy tools when faced with structural changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Who benefits from economic growth? This paper analyses the distributional impact of different types of growth within a two-sector model. The paper first presents necessary and sufficient conditions for unambiguous changes in wage inequality in a dual economy, based on analysis of the entire Lorenz curve. These conditions are then applied to the Harris–Todaro model with an urban non-agricultural sector and rural agriculture. It is shown that capital accumulation or technical progress in agriculture can shift the Lorenz curve inwards and reduce wage inequality, while the effects of development in non-agriculture are typically ambiguous. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we analyse the macroeconomic record of dollarized economies. In particular, we investigate whether, as its supporters claim, dollarization is associated with lower inflation and faster growth. We analyse this issue by using a matching estimator technique developed in the training evaluation literature. Our findings suggest that inflation has been significantly lower in dollarized nations than in non-dollarized ones. We also find that dollarized nations have had a lower rate of economic growth than non-dollarized ones. Finally, we find that macroeconomic volatility is not significantly different across dollarized and non-dollarized economies. We conjecture that the lower rate of economic growth in dollarized countries is due, at least in part, to these countries' difficulties in accommodating external disturbances, such as major terms of trade and capital flows shocks. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research examining the growth impacts of institutions have found that institutions are important in fostering economic growth. By building a framework around the institutional taxonomy proposed by Rodrik (2005), our paper contributes to the literature in the following way. First, we confirm the result that 'institutions matter' and show that different types of institutions matter differently for growth. By applying a dynamic panel model, we find that market-creating and market-stabilising institutions are important in fostering economic growth. We then extend this analysis and investigate whether countries at different levels of development could respond heterogeneously to changes in their institutional structure. We find that poor countries benefit the most from market-creating institutions and institutions that support market stability. We also find some evidence that market-legitimising institutions such as 'democracy' are not necessarily optimal for growth in poor countries. These results have important implications for countries that decide on the optimal strategy to improve their institutional framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to most classifications, Sub‐Saharan Africa is the region of the world with the highest presence of fragile states. In this paper we examine the relationship between fragility and poverty, suggesting that countries may become trapped in a vicious circle of fragility and low levels of wellbeing. We consider fragility as a continuum and begin by reviewing available measures. These show the high presence of fragility in Sub‐Saharan Africa and allow the more fragile countries to be identified. There is seen to be a strong association between fragility, poor growth performance, and lower wellbeing in Sub‐Saharan Africa. Building on the strong evidence for the two‐way relationship between economic growth and poverty, we present an analysis of how the vicious circle linking poorer welfare outcomes and fragility may be able to be broken. We argue that building successful institutions is key here, and this can be enabled by specific policy interventions that are both poverty reducing and productive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a multi‐region, multi‐sector dynamic model of an economy with rural–urban migration fit to Turkish data, this paper explores the evolution of each region's output and factor allocation as well as inter‐regional disparities that emerge with migration. Migration or residence decision of households is endogenous with respect to regional cost‐of‐living differentials. Results show that migration slows down and dampens the shift of labour from urban manufacturing to services, despite the increase in demand for urban services. It is also established that rural–urban migration contributes positively to growth while the reallocation of labour within each region proves to be unfavourable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we investigate the role of inflation rates in determining economic growth in 15 sub-Saharan African countries, which are all members of the Southern African Development Community, between 1980 and 2009. The results, based on panel time-series data and analysis (we use the fixed effects and fixed effects with instrumental variables estimators to account for heterogeneity and endogeneity in thin panels), suggest that inflation has had a detrimental effect to growth in the community. We highlight that inflation has offset the Mundell- Tobin effect and consequently reduced the much needed economic activity in the community, and also the importance of an institutional framework conducive to a stable macroeconomic environment as a precondition for development and prosperity in the community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In examining some big questions on African development, I provide evidence that the dynamics of some development indicators could support both endogenous and neoclassical growth theories in the convergence debate. This paper investigates convergence in real per capita gross domestic product and inequality-adjusted human development in 38 African countries, disaggregated into 10 homogenous panels based on regions ( Sub- Saharan and North Africa), income levels (low, middle, lower middle and upper middle), legal origins ( English common law and French civil law) and religious dominations ( Christianity and Islam). The main finding is that the income component of the Human Development Index moves slower than others in the convergence process, and thus requires a more focused policy intervention. As a policy implication, looking beyond income convergence can provide a concrete agenda for development involving all aspects of economic, institutional and social life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a simulation model based on the growth rate, the inflation rate, and the consumption tax rate in the future. Future tax revenues and fiscal expenditures are projected using regression models estimated from past data. The fiscal situation is called unsustainable if the outstanding amount of Japanese government bonds ( JGBs) becomes higher than the level of private sector financial assets. We focus on the general account of the central government, which is the source of JGB issues. We find that the higher the economic growth, the more likely it is that the fiscal situation is sustainable. When a larger portion of interest income is reinvested in JGBs, the chance is higher that the fiscal situation is sustainable. Most importantly, raising the consumption tax to 20% guarantees fiscal sustainability in most cases. Our analysis shows that without a consumption tax hike beyond the 10% rate, a fiscal crisis will be almost a certainty, even with a real economic growth rate of 2% despite a shrinking labor force. A reasonably quick hike of the consumption tax, namely a hike by 1% a year, up to 20%, combined with high or moderate economic growth rates, seems to keep the economy out of a fiscal crisis, where a moderate growth rate is defined to be generated by a productivity increase per working-age population of 1.9%, which was the average during the Koizumi years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An income growth pattern is pro-poor if it reduces a (chosen) measure of poverty by more than if all incomes were growing equiproportionately. Inequality reduction is not sufficient for pro-poorness. In this paper, we explore the nexus between pro-poorness, growth, and inequality in some detail using simulations involving the displaced lognormal, Singh- Maddala, and Dagum distributions. For empirically relevant parameter estimates, distributional change preserving the functional form of each of these three-parameter distributions is often either pro-poor and inequality reducing, or pro-rich and inequality exacerbating, but it is also possible for pro-rich growth to be inequality reducing. There is some capacity for each of these distributions to show trickle effects (weak pro-richness) along with inequality-reducing growth, but virtually no possibility of pro-poorness for growth which increases overall inequality. Implications are considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the Reinhart-Rogoff dataset, we find a debt threshold not around 90 per cent but around 30 per cent, above which the median real gross domestic product (GDP) growth falls abruptly. Our work is the first to formally test for threshold effects in the relationship between public debt and median real GDP growth. The null hypothesis of no threshold effect is rejected at the 5 per cent significance level for most cases. While we find no evidence of a threshold around 90 per cent, our findings from the post-war sample suggest that the debt threshold for economic growth may exist around a relatively small debt-to-GDP ratio of 30 per cent. Furthermore, countries with debt-to-GDP ratios above 30 per cent have GDP growth that is 1 percentage point lower at the median. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the relationship between mean income and the income of the rich. Our methodology closely follows that of Dollar and Kraay ( Journal of Economic Growth, 2002, 7, 195), but instead of looking at the bottom of the distribution, we focus on the top. We use panel data from the World Top Incomes database, which collects top income data from several countries using tax returns as the raw source. We define the 'rich' as earners in the top 10%, 1%, 0.1% and 0.01% of the income distribution. Using data since 1980, we find that economic growth is good for the rich in the sense that the mean income of the top decile of the distribution grows in the same proportion as that of the whole population. However, we also find that the income of earners in the top percentile of the distribution and above grows faster than average income: therefore, economic growth is really good for the really rich. We also find that during economic downturns the average income of top earners responds proportionally less to changes in mean income than during economic expansions. Our results are consistent with the increase in inequality that has been recently observed at the top part of the distribution in many countries, and they are robust to different specifications, country samples and time observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Massari et al. (2008) argue that the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) approach to discounting expected cash flows is generally inconsistent with the adjusted present value (APV) approach. We show that their argument results from, first, taking a WACC expression that assumes a fixed level of debt in perpetuity and applying it to a scenario where the debt level varies stochastically; and, second, discounting the tax savings from stochastic debt at the rate appropriate for fixed debt. Our paper draws attention to the fundamental proposition by which such errors are avoided when cross-referencing valuation methods. The outcome is that the APV and WACC methods are shown to be algebraically consistent with each other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Innovation is essential for sustaining growth and economic development in a world that faces population increase, natural resource depletion, and environmental challenges. Incentives play a critical role in innovation because the required research and development activities are costly, and the resulting knowledge has the attributes of a public good. This paper discusses the economics of institutions and policies meant to provide incentives for research and innovation, and focuses on intellectual property rights, specifically patents, contracted research (for example grants), and innovation prizes. The main economic implications of these institutions are discussed, with particular attention paid to open questions and recent contributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the causality between remittances and economic growth in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. We employ the panel Granger causality testing approach that is based on seemingly unrelated regressions systems and Wald tests with country-specific bootstrap critical values. Using annual data over the period 1980-2007 for 20 SSA countries, we find that in any SSA country, there is no causality between remittances and growth. An explanation of why remittances do not increase growth in SSA countries is given by the causality test that shows that remittances do not increase physical capital investment. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pan Pearl River Delta (PPRD) Regional Co-operation Framework Agreement was signed in 2004. It aims to bring prosperity through partnership among nine Chinese Mainland provinces and China's two special administrative regions. In this paper, we use a dynamic panel data model to examine the economic growth of the PPRD economies from 1985 to 2009. Our analysis confirms the existence of regional growth spillover effects in the PPRD area. Our results also show that economic growth spillover effects of non-PPRD regions on the PPRD regions are greater than those among the PPRD members themselves. These findings imply that economic integration between Chinese provinces has generated considerable spillover effects on regional growth. However, the anticipated benefits of the implementation of the PPRD agreement have not been realized thus far. Therefore, greater effort should be made to promote further economic integration among these members so that their local economies can benefit from the positive spillover effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Countries rich in natural resources constitute both development failures and successes depending on their underlying socioeconomic fundamentals. Recent empirical evidence and theoretical work provide support for a resource-curse hypothesis based on ethnic fractionalization. There is also increasing empirical evidence suggesting that ethnic heterogeneity based on polarization is a strong deterrent of economic growth. In this paper, we explore the interlinkages between natural resource abundance and both measures of ethnic heterogeneity. In a two-simultaneous equation system, we assess the effects of fractionalization and polarization on property-rights protection, and thereby on growth, both directly as well as in interaction with our resource-abundance proxy. We find that ethnic polarization is more likely to have a direct negative impact on the effectiveness of property rights in a resource-rich context, which as we explain may suggest that different ethnic groups treat the contestable resource base as a semi-public good. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research has concluded that the historical evidence only provides weak support for the contention that deflation episodes are harmful to economic growth. In this paper, we revisit this relationship by allowing for inflation and growth to have a nonlinear specification dependent on inflation levels. In particular, we allow for the possibility that high inflation is negatively correlated with growth, while a positive relationship exists over the range of negative to moderate inflation. Our results confirm a positive relationship between inflation and growth at moderate inflation levels, and support the contention that the relationship between inflation and growth is nonlinear over the entire sample range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Individual country experience with trade liberalisation has been mixed. This paper examines the relationship between liberalisation and growth for a sample of 75 liberalising countries. To consider the importance of heterogeneity in the growth response to liberalisation this paper employs quantile regression methods which allow the coefficient on liberalisation to vary across the conditional growth distribution. The results suggest that countries experiencing the lowest rates of growth benefit most from liberalisation. The results also suggest that while such countries benefit most in the long-run they are the most likely to suffer from short-run negative effects of liberalisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The strong economic growth in China is difficult to reconcile with its inefficient financial system. The puzzle of China's financial development and growth can be explained through a dynamic criterion of adaptive efficiency, rather than through allocative efficiency. Using the framework of an autoregressive distributed lag model, the present paper tests the hypothesis that the GDP growth rate is dependent on financial development along with other variables in China and Pakistan. The hypothesis cannot be rejected in both cases. However, the results show that economic growth has a negative relationship with credit to the private sector in China. We conclude that financial development is a source of China's high growth rate and that the banking system is still under an evolutionary process, involving the pursuit of social objectives instead of the sole objective of profit maximization. Our results provide some implications for other developing countries like Pakistan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foreign trade matters considerably more than ever in today's integrated economies, and the wealth of benefits afforded by air transport is one of the cornerstones of international trade. Therefore, to shed light on the precise role of air cargo, seen as an important motor of growth, this paper provides an empirical model to examine the relationships among trade openness, air freight volume and GDP per capita using panel cointegration techniques for a sample of Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) countries during the 1970-2002 period. The analysis substantiates that there are cointegrated relationships among the three variables and that they are bound together in a long-run equilibrium. Furthermore, evidence from fully modified Ordinary Least Squares panel estimations also indicates that positive trade and air freight shocks contribute to real GDP per capita. In addition, improvements in air cargo services are accompanied by an increase in trade openness in ECA countries and vice versa. These results underscore the important role of air freight and demonstrate that it should not have been overlooked in earlier studies. Finally, the empirical findings have important policy implications for our sample countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we look at the role of export composition in the growth process, considering how increased similarity in trade structure among countries can induce catching-up in income levels in a group of countries in transition. We analyze the sectoral export patterns of the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) by comparing them to those of the current members of the European Union (EU), focusing on countries’ specialization as suppliers for the EU market, and we assess whether similar export patterns foster the catching-up process of the CEECs. Our main result is that similarity in export composition has a positive, significant and non-linear impact on catching-up, and seems to be driven by the growth of the main export market and delocalization of production more than by other factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of foreign direct investment (FDI) in small island developing states (SIDS) is an issue that has been neglected until relatively recently. The reasons for this lack of interest are unsurprising, given both the low absolute volume of capital flows involved and the general neglect of issues relating directly to SIDS in the mainstream theoretical and empirical economics literature. For SIDS themselves however, FDI represents an important additional source of investment capital and a potentially critical contributor to growth and development. This paper represents one of the first attempts to analyse the determinants of the inflows of FDI to SIDS. The analysis is undertaken in the context of the existing literature on the determinants of FDI inflows, incorporating insights drawn from recent research on the determinants of growth in small states. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While in a steady state framework the choice between the wacc approach ( Modigliani-Miller, 1963 ) and the adjusted present value (APV) approach ( Myers, 1974 ) is irrelevant since the two approaches provide the same result, however, in a growing firm context the wacc equation seems to be inconsistent with the APV result. In this paper we propose a simple model to evaluate the tax savings in a growing firm in order to show under which assumptions the two approaches lead to the same results. We demonstrate that the use of the wacc model in a steady-growth scenario gives rise to some unusual assumptions with regard to the discount rates to be used in calculating tax shields. We show that the widely used wacc formula, if used, as it is in most cases, in a growth context, implies that a) debt tax shield related to already existing debt are discounted using kd; b) debt tax shield related to new debt, due to company's growth, are discounted, according to a mixed procedure, using both ku and kd. We discuss the inconsistency of such a discounting procedure and the preferred features of the APV approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

If development assistance targeted at specific sectors is not used as intended, aid is said to be fungible. While fungible aid is in general perceived as being less effective than aid used as specified, this has not been formally tested. This paper attempts at filling this gap and hence, tries to assess to what extent fungibility is something donors should be concerned about. Country-specific estimates of fungibility are obtained for 57 aid-recipient countries, suggesting that sectoral aid is indeed fungible on average. These estimates are then incorporated into an empirical model of aid and economic growth. I do not find any evidence of non-fungible sectoral aid working better than fungible aid. Then, I focus on sectoral aid to ‘pro-poor’ government expenditure sectors to assess the effect on infant mortality. While the results indicate that non-fungible aid is welfare improving, this is not robust to small changes in the specification. My results suggest that the concept of fungibility may be too narrow and should possibly not be the most central concern when aid is debated or given. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research note examines the determinants of economic growth at the sub-national level in South Africa, and investigates cross-regional medium term (1998–2002) growth rate differentials between 354 magisterial districts. A dynamic panel data regression model is used that includes measures of geography (distance and natural resources) as well as recent estimates of physical and human capital. We find that the significant determinants of local economic growth are distance from internal markets, human capital, export propensity, and the capital stock. Distance from international harbours, as a measure of transport costs, and urban agglomeration (or density) affects growth indirectly through its significant effect on the ability of a region to export. Overall, these results indicate that geography is important, independent of its effects on institutions, for economic growth. Bearing in mind a medium-term focus, no evidence of absolute convergence could be found over a five-year period, but the evidence tentatively suggests beta convergence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The curse of natural resources is a well-documented phenomenon for developing countries. Economies that are richly endowed with natural resources tend to grow slowly. Among the transition economies of the former ‘Eastern Bloc’, a similar pattern can be observed. This paper shows that a large part of the variation in growth rates among the transition economies can be attributed to the curse of natural resources. After controlling for numerous other factors, there is still a strong negative correlation between natural resource abundance and economic growth. Among the transition economies the prime reasons for the curse of natural resources were corruption and a neglect of basic education. In order to overcome the curse of natural resources and move to a sustainable path of development, the resource abundant transition countries should fight corruption and ensure that their resource revenues are invested in human capital or the preservation of natural capital. JEL classifications: O0, P2, Q0. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper decomposes changes in poverty into growth and redistribution components and employs several pro-poor growth concepts to explore the growth, poverty and inequality nexus in Sri Lanka over the period 1990-2010. We find a 'trickle-down' situation, in which the poor have received proportionately less benefits from growth than the non-poor. All pro-poor measures suggest that economic growth in Sri Lanka was particularly beneficial for those located at the top of the distribution. Regression-based decompositions suggest that variation in expenditure by education characteristics that persist after controlling for other factors to account for around two-fifths of total household expenditure inequality. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

'Business climate indexes' characterize state economic policies, and are often used to try to influence economic policy debate. However, they are also useful in research as summaries of a large number of state policies that cannot be studied simultaneously. Prior research found that business climate indexes focused on productivity and quality of life do not predict economic growth, while indexes emphasizing taxes and costs of doing business indicate that low-tax, low-cost states have faster growth of employment, wages, and output. In this paper, we study the relationship between these two categories of business climate indexes and the promotion of equality or inequality. We do not find that the productivity/quality-of-life indexes predict more equitable outcomes, although some of the policies underlying them suggest they might. We do find, however, that the same tax-and-cost-related indexes that are associated with higher economic growth are also associated with increases in inequality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a normative framework for the assessment of the distributional incidence of growth. By removing the anonymity axiom, such framework is able to evaluate the individual income changes over time and the reshuffling of individuals along the income distribution that are determined by the pattern of income growth. We adopt a rank dependent social welfare function expressed in terms of initial rank and individual income change and we obtain partial and complete dominance conditions over different growth paths. These dominance conditions account for the different components determining the overall impact of growth, that is the size of growth and its vertical and horizontal incidence. We then provide an empirical application for Italy: this analysis shows the distributional impact of the recent economic crisis suffered by the Italian populaltion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is widespread evidence that pro-cyclical fiscal policies have been prevalent in developing countries and often in some industrial nations. It is therefore surprising that, in contrast to the wealth of studies on the sources of pro-cyclical policy, potential consequences of such seemingly suboptimal policies have been largely ignored in the existing literature. By utilising a comprehensive set of indicators from 114 countries for 1950-2010, we aim to address the following important question: does it matter whether a country adopts a pro-cyclical fiscal policy stance rather than a counter-cyclical one? Our results produce a resounding 'yes' to this question. We find that fiscally pro-cyclical countries have lower rates of economic growth, higher rates of output volatility and higher rates of inflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article studies the distribution of well-being and, specifically, the degree of poverty and deprivation in Albania, in the years 2002 and 2005, using Living Standard Measurement Surveys ( LSMS). The distribution analysis is performed by applying both one-dimensional and multidimensional approaches, in particular to better examine the link between economic growth, inequality and poverty in Albania. Furthermore, by estimating a non-monetary indicator, as proposed by Bossert et al. (), and a nonlinear principal component model together with a probit model, the paper focuses on the multidimensional measures of poverty to address the relationship between poverty and socio-economic factors. Our evidence shows that absolute poverty decreased from 2002 to 2005 while national relative poverty increased; economic growth reduced poverty in Albania over the observed period; and living in rural and mountain areas, being female, poorly educated and with a large family increased the probability of suffering from deprivation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's spectacular economic growth has been spatially uneven, with much development occurring in eastern coastal areas. In particular, three metropolitan 'super-regions' have become China's most competitive knowledge-based economies, consisting of the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Bohai Gulf Region. This paper benchmarks the competitiveness of these regions, with a view to exploring which region is best positioned to become the most dominant knowledge-based economy over time. Through the theoretical lens of dynamic comparative advantage, it is shown that each region has hugely increased its competitiveness through improvements in the capacity to absorb and diffuse knowledge. It is further shown that due to multi-dimensional advantages the Yangtze River Delta, incorporating the Shanghai metropolis, is best positioned to become the dominant hub of China's future knowledge economy. It is concluded that China's leading regions will require further economic policy adjustments in order to secure their future competitiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]