Search

This paper examines the sustainability of the current account deficit (CAD) and validity of the intertemporal budget constraint of India for the period of 1980 to 2019. The cointegration results show that exports and imports are not cointegrated and the current account (CA) series is not mean reverting during the study period. Therefore, the results refute the sustainability of CAD and the validity of the intertemporal budget constraint in the Indian context. Furthermore, the study also emphasised the testing of the disaggregated CA and found that while the goods account is not sustainable, the services account found to be sustainable in the long run. Our findings thus indicate the potential for aggregation bias to have an impact on the overall CA sustainability results. Therefore, policies that help in achieving self‐sufficiency on the one hand and export promotion in goods on the other may eventually contribute to CA sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the association among energy consumption, carbon‐dioxide emission, and India's economic growth along with supplemental variables including foreign direct investment, population density, inflation, and agricultural land. An autoregressive distributive lag model is applied over annual time‐series data from 1985 to 2019. Further, the robustness and novelty of the model are confirmed by applying fully modified ordinary‐least‐square, dynamic ordinary‐least‐square, canonical co‐integrating regression, variance decomposition, and impulse response function. The analysis results indicate that a cointegration association exists among variables. In the short run, the profound determinants of economic development are energy consumption, carbon‐dioxide emission, inflation, and agricultural land. In the long run, both inflation and agricultural land significantly negatively influence economic growth while carbon emission drives a positive impact. Interestingly, a one‐way Granger causality runs from economic growth towards energy consumption, carbon emission, and agricultural land. The new research presents a comprehensive understanding of economic growth indicators, aiding policymakers, and advancing existing literature. Consequently, as a recommendation, the policymakers should constitute explicit goals for renewable energy consumption to stimulate sustainable economic growth with carbon emission reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the relationship between electricity consumption ( LEC) and economic growth ( LGDP) using Autoregressive Distributed Lag ( ARDL) model and Granger causality within error correction framework in India over the period 1970-1971 to 2009-2010 are analysed. The results of these tests exhibit the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship and bilateral causality in case of India. Then, Hodrick- Prescott filter is used to decompose the data into trend and cyclical (fluctuation) components of electricity consumption and economic growth. The results of decomposed series revealed that both series are cointegrated with the strong evidence of bidirectional causality, implying that trend and cyclical components are strongly correlated with business cycles in India. From these findings, we conclude that the feedback hypothesis is applicable in case of India. Therefore, government should undertake necessary policy measures to augment the investment in power sector from existing level and more importantly the emphasis should also be given on the efficient use of electricity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study empirically examines the cointegrating relationship among variables, viz. carbon emission, economic growth, square of economic growth, primary energy supply, financial development and trade openness in India, with a view to validate the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. The results based on ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration find no credence to EKC hypothesis, for the period 1971–2016. This indicates that the relationships between carbon emission and economic growth are not significant, and therefore, the EKC hypothesis does not hold in the case of India. Furthermore, the study establishes a significant positive relationship between energy supply and carbon emission. A proportionate increase in energy supply causes more than proportionate increase in carbon emission. In order to cope up with the positive impact of energy on carbon emission, the study suggests that the country needs to expedite the process of enhancing the capacity of renewable and clean energy generation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Applying the maximum-likelihood method of co-integration, this study analysed spatial market integration between an adjacent rice surplus market (India) and deficit markets (Bangladesh and Nepal). The main focus is on the government policies of these three rice-producing countries which have been imposed to reduce domestic price volatilities in rice markets during the recent 'global food crisis' in 2007-2008. The co-integration tests find that domestic rice prices of India, Bangladesh and Nepal are integrated both in short-run and long-run periods despite the imposition of export restriction policies by India. The reason that prices are transmitted so effectively is most likely to be the widespread informal cross-border trade through the porous borders among India, Bangladesh and Nepal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study is the first to use Johansen's cointegration approach for India in the analysis of the long-term dynamics between the black and official exchange rates for the period 1953–1993. The study also estimates the long-run elasticity of the official rate with respect to the black market rate. As monthly data over 40 years are used, and a more robust methodology is employed, the results are likely to be more reliable as compared with the earlier work on India. The results of our study suggest that while there is a long-term relationship between the two rates, the direction of causality is from the black rate to the official exchange rate. This is plausible in the Indian context where policy has generally lagged behind events in the black market. The hypothesis of a constant black market premium is rejected, implying that there is a mismatch between the percentage change in the official exchange rate and the percentage change in the black market rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the effects of exchange rate alignment during 1985–2002 on agricultural producer support estimates (PSEs) for India. Based on several time series techniques, the equilibrium exchange rate of the Indian rupee and the corresponding misalignment of the actual rate are estimated and applied to recent PSE calculations. Our results show that the exchange rate was substantially misaligned before a financial crisis and macroeconomic reform in the early 1990s, with subsequent indirect effects on the PSEs. We find a relatively high pass-through of exchange rate movements to domestic agricultural prices, so that removal of the exchange rate misalignment would have improved incentives to Indian farmers during this period. More recently, this indirect exchange rate effect is smaller than the direct effect in the PSEs, indicating the dominance of sectoral-specific policies over economy-wide policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]