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Large‐scale patterns of biodiversity and formation have garnered increasing attention in biogeography and macroecology. The Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau (QTP) is an ideal area for exploring these issues. However, the QTP consists of multiple geographic subunits, which are understudied. The Kunlun Mountains is a geographical subunit situated in the northern edge of the QTP, in northwest China. The diversity pattern, community phylogenetic structures, and biogeographical roles of the current flora of the Kunlun Mountains were analyzed by collecting and integrating plant distribution, regional geological evolution, and phylogeography. A total of 1911 species, 397 genera, and 75 families present on the Kunlun Mountains, of which 29.8% of the seed plants were endemic to China. The mean divergence time (MDT) of the Kunlun Mountains flora was in the early Miocene (19.40 Ma). Analysis of plant diversity and MDT indicated that the eastern regions of the Kunlun Mountains were the center of species richness, endemic taxa, and ancient taxa. Geographical origins analysis showed that the Kunlun Mountains flora was diverse and that numerous clades were from East Asia and Tethyan. Analysis of geographical origins and geological history together highlighted that the extant biodiversity on the Kunlun Mountains appeared through species recolonization after climatic fluctuations and glaciations during the Quaternary. The nearest taxon index speculated that habitat filtering was the most important driving force for biodiversity patterns. These results suggest that the biogeographical roles of the Kunlun Mountains are corridor and sink, and the corresponding key processes are species extinction and immigration. The Kunlun Mountains also form a barrier, representing a boundary among multiple floras, and convert the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau into a relatively closed geographical unit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on species richness patterns and the advanced elevational Rapoport rule (ERR) has been widespread in recent years; however, there is a lack of such research for the temperate mountainous regions in northeast Asia. Here, we collected plant species from the Seorak Mountain in northeast Asia through field surveys. The species were divided into 11 groups according to the life‐form types and phytogeography affinities of each species. The ERR was evaluated using Steven's method and by examining the species richness patterns of each group. The species richness patterns revealed a positive multimodal pattern along the elevation gradient, but phytogeography affinities (increasing trend) and life‐form analysis (unimodal) exhibited different patterns. The elevation gradients (1,350 m for the mean elevation–range relationships), which are affected by the boundary effect and different life forms, did not consistently support the ERR. However, herbs as well as rare, endemic, and red list species showed consistent support for the ERR, which could be attributed to the influence by phytogeography affinities. Therefore, the results from Seorak Mountain showed that the ERR was not consistent for different plant life forms in the same area; however, phytogeography affinities could support and explain ERR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To examine how snow cover and permafrost affect plant species distributions at a subcontinental extent. Location: Mountain realm of Fennoscandia, northern Europe. Time period: Species data from 1 January 1990–25 February 2019. Major taxa studied: Arctic‐alpine and boreal vascular plants. Methods: We examined the effect of snow persistence and permafrost occurrence on the distributions of arctic‐alpine and boreal plant species while controlling for climate, topography and geological factors. Data comprised 475,811 observations from 671 species in the Fennoscandian mountains. We investigated the relationships between species distributions and environmental variables using four modelling methods and ensemble modelling building on both non‐spatial and spatial models. Results: Snow persistence was the most important driver of plant species distributions, with the greatest variable importance for both arctic‐alpine (38.2%) and boreal (49.9%) species. Permafrost had a consistent minor effect on the predicted distributions. Arctic‐alpine plants occur in areas with long snow persistence and permafrost, whereas boreal species showed the opposite habitat preferences. Main conclusions: Our results highlight the importance of snow persistence in driving the distribution of vascular plant species in cold environments at a subcontinental scale. The notable contribution of the cryosphere to plant species distribution models indicates that the inclusion of snow information in particular may improve our understanding and model predictions of biogeographical patterns in cold regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Elevation is involved in determining plant diversity in montane ecosystems. This study examined whether the distribution of plants in the Yatsugatake Mountains, central Japan, substantiated hypotheses associated with an elevational diversity gradient. Species richness of trees, shrubs, herbs, ferns, and bryophytes was investigated in study plots established at 200‐m elevational intervals from 1,800 to 2,800 m. The changes in plant diversity (alpha and beta diversities, plant functional types, and elevational ranges) with elevation were analyzed in relation to climatic factors and elevational diversity gradient hypotheses, that is, mass effect, mid‐domain effect, and Rapoport's elevational rule. In addition, the elevational patterns of dominance of plant functional types were also analyzed. A comparison of alpha and beta diversities revealed that different plant groups responded variably to elevation; the alpha diversity of trees and ferns decreased, that of herbs increased, whereas the alpha diversity of shrubs and bryophytes showed a U‐shaped relationship and a hump‐shaped pattern. The beta diversity of shrubs, herbs, and bryophytes increased above the subalpine–alpine ecotone. In accordance with these changes, the dominance of evergreen shrubs and graminoids increased above this ecotone, whereas that of evergreen trees and liverworts decreased. None of the plant groups showed a wide elevational range at higher elevations. These elevational patterns of plant groups were explained by climatic factors, and not by elevational diversity gradient hypotheses. Of note, the changes in the dominance of plant groups with elevation can be attributed to plant–plant interactions via competition for light and the changes in physical habitat. These interactions could alter the elevational diversity gradient shaped by climatic factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While soil ecosystems undergo important modifications due to global change, the effect of soil properties on plant distributions is still poorly understood. Plant growth is not only controlled by soil physico‐chemistry but also by microbial activities through the decomposition of organic matter and the recycling of nutrients essential for plants. A growing body of evidence also suggests that plant functional traits modulate species' response to environmental gradients. However, no study has yet contrasted the importance of soil physico‐chemistry, microbial activities and climate on plant species distributions, while accounting for how plant functional traits can influence species‐specific responses. Using hierarchical effects in a multi‐species distribution model, we investigate how four functional traits related to resource acquisition (plant height, leaf carbon to nitrogen ratio, leaf dry matter content and specific leaf area) modulate the response of 44 plant species to climatic variables, soil physico‐chemical properties and microbial decomposition activity (i.e. exoenzymatic activities) in the French Alps. Our hierarchical trait‐based model allowed to predict well 41 species according to the TSS statistic. In addition to climate, the combination of soil C/N, as a measure of organic matter quality, and exoenzymatic activity, as a measure of microbial decomposition activity, strongly improved predictions of plant distributions. Plant traits played an important role. In particular, species with conservative traits performed better under limiting nutrient conditions but were outcompeted by exploitative plants in more favorable environments. We demonstrate tight associations between microbial decomposition activity, plant functional traits associated to different resource acquisition strategies and plant distributions. This highlights the importance of plant–soil linkages for mountain plant distributions. These results are crucial for biodiversity modelling in a world where both climatic and soil systems are undergoing profound and rapid transformations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To understand how disturbance—here defined as a transient reduction in competition—can shape plant distributions along elevation gradients. Theory suggests that disturbance may increase elevation ranges, especially at the lower range limits, through reduced competitive exclusion. Nevertheless, to date this relationship remains unclear. Location: Mountains of Costa Rica. Methods: We compared the elevation range of woody stems over 10 cm dbh ("trees") observed in plots along two transects spanning a range of elevations in secondary (regrowth) and old‐growth forest (409 and 249 species, respectively). We also estimated these elevation ranges using nationwide data. In addition, we examined the influence of stem size and plot scale basal area (as a measure of competition) on species elevation range limits in the two gradients. Results: In general, tree species ranges increased with elevation. Species in the secondary forest had broader elevation ranges (100–318 m broader than species in the old‐growth forest; Wilcoxon: p‐value <.001). Also, in the secondary transect, individuals with greater diameters had broader elevation ranges than those observed as smaller trees (137 m broader; Kruskal–Wallis: p‐value =.03). The lower range limit of species occurred more frequently in plots with lower (vs. higher) basal area than expected by chance in both forest types. We also observed higher elevation upper limits in old growth, but not in secondary forests, with lower (vs. higher) basal area. Main conclusion: Disturbance relaxes the constraints imposed by competition and extends effective elevation ranges of species, particularly those in secondary forest, to warmer and cooler climates (minimum increase equivalent to about 0.6–1.4°C). Thus, suitable disturbance may assist species persistence under climate change. We believe this is the first study indicating a consistent relation between disturbance and woody plant species distributions along elevation gradients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Global warming is predicted to shift distributions of mountain species upwards, driven by a release from climatic restrictions at their upper distribution limit and increased biotic pressure at their lower distribution limit. In alpine ecosystems, which are characterized by large microclimatic diversity and sparse vegetation cover, the relative importance of abiotic and biotic drivers for species distribution is poorly understood. To disentangle abiotic and biotic mechanisms affecting distributions of alpine species, we investigated how alpine plant species with differing elevational ranges and frequency trends over the past century differ in their microhabitat distribution, and how they respond to neighbouring vegetation. Location A total of 11 summits (2635-3410 m a.s.l.) in SE-Switzerland. Methods We quantified the microscale abundance of 12 species in relation to biogeographic (frequency trend, i.e., change in occurrences over the past century, and elevational range on summits) and local microhabitat characteristics (temperature, substrate type). We assessed species size traits in relation to neighbouring vegetation characteristics to investigate possible neighbour interactions. Results Species with increasing frequency on summits over the past century were most abundant on scree and warmer slopes. Species with negative or stable frequency trends on summits were more abundant on organic soil and colder slopes. The preferred microhabitats of the latter were rarest overall, decreased with increasing elevation, and had the most competitive neighbours. Size of one high-alpine specialist, Ranunculus glacialis was negatively related to cover of neighbouring vegetation, whereas other species showed no response to neighbours. Main conclusions Long-term frequency trends of species correlate with their microhabitat association. Species with most negative frequency trends show preferences for the rarest microhabitat conditions, where they likely experience higher competitive pressure in a warming climate. This finding emphasizes the importance of characterizing microhabitat associations and microclimatic diversity to assess present and future distributions of alpine plant species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interspecific hybridization, especially when regularly followed by backcrossing (i.e., introgressive hybridization), conveys a substantial risk for many endangered organisms. This is particularly true for narrow endemics occurring within distributional ranges of widespread congeners. An excellent example is provided by the plant genus Knautia (Caprifoliaceae): Locally endemic K. carinthiaca is reported from two isolated populations in southern Austria situated within an area predominantly occupied by widespread K. arvensis. While K. carinthiaca usually inhabits low-competition communities on rocky outcrops, K. arvensis occurs mainly in dry to mesic managed grasslands, yet both species can coexist in marginal environments and were suspected to hybridize. Flow cytometry revealed that diploid K. carinthiaca only occurs at its locus classicus, whereas the second locality is inhabited by the morphologically similar but tetraploid K. norica. In the, therefore, single population of K. carinthiaca, flow cytometry and AFLP fingerprinting showed signs of introgressive hybridization with diploid K. arvensis. Hybridization patterns were also reflected in intermediate habitat preferences and morphology of the hybrids. Environmental barriers to gene flow seem to prevent genetic erosion of K. carinthiaca individuals from the core ecological niches, restricting most introgressed individuals to peripheral habitats. Efficient conservation of K. carinthiaca will require strict protection of its habitat and ban on forest clear cuts in a buffer zone to prevent invasion of K. arvensis. We demonstrate the large potential of multidisciplinary approaches combining molecular, cytometric, and ecological tools for a reliable inventory and threat assessment of rare species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atraphaxis has approximately 25 species and a distribution center in Central Asia. It has been previously used to hypothesize an origin from montane forest. We sampled 18 species covering three sections within the genus and sequenced five cpDNA spacers, atpB- rbcL, psbK- psbI, psbA- trnH, rbcL, and trnL- trnF. BEAST was used to reconstruct phylogenetic relationship and time divergences, and S-DIVA and Lagrange were used, based on distribution area and ecotype data, for reconstruction of ancestral areas and events. Our results appear compatible with designation of three taxonomic sections within the genus. The generic stem and crown ages were Eocene, approximately 47 Ma, and Oligocene 27 Ma, respectively. The origin of Atraphaxis is confirmed as montane, with an ancestral area consisting of the Junggar Basin and uplands of the Pamir-Tianshan-Alatau-Altai mountain chains, and ancestral ecotype of montane forest. Two remarkable paleogeographic events, shrinkage of the inland Paratethys Sea at the boundary of the late Oligocene and early Miocene, and the time intervals of cooling and drying of global climate from 24 (22) Ma onward likely facilitated early diversification of Atraphaxis, while rapid uplift of the Tianshan Mountains during the late Miocene may have promoted later diversification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Following climate cooling at the end of the Tertiary, arctic-alpine plants attained most of their extant species diversity. Because East Asia was not heavily glaciated, the importance of this region as a location for the long-term persistence of these species and their subsequent endemism during the Pleistocene was proposed in early discussions of phytogeography. However, this hypothesis remains to be fully tested. • Here, we address this hypothesis by elucidating the phylogenetic history of Phyllodoce (Ericaceae). • A phylogenetic tree based on multiple nuclear loci revealed that Phyllodoce nipponica was not derived from widespread species such as the arctic-alpine Phyllodoce caerulea, but rather represented an independent lineage sister to the clade of widespread relatives. Molecular dating indicated a mid-Pleistocene divergence of P. nipponica. • These findings exclude the hypothesis that P. nipponica was derived from an arctic-alpine species that extended its range southwards during recent glacial periods. Instead, our results support the hypothesis that P. nipponica is an ancestral species which persisted in the Japanese archipelago during the mid- and late Pleistocene. Our findings demonstrate support for the early proposal and shed light on the importance of the Japanese archipelago for the evolution and persistence of arctic-alpine species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Despite increasing evidence for plant growth often being limited by sink (meristem) activity rather than source (photosynthesis) activity, all currently available dynamic global vegetation models ( DGVMs) simulate plant growth via source-limited processes. For a given climatic region, this may lead to an overestimation of carbon stock per unit surface area, particularly if a model fails to correctly predict forest cover. Our aim is to improve the Lund- Potsdam- Jena (LPJ) DGVM by replacing the source-limited ( SoL) tree growth algorithm by a sink-limited ( SiL) one. Location Our analysis focuses on the cold tree line at high latitudes and altitudes. We study two altitudinal transects in the Swiss Alps and the northern tree line. Methods We limit annual net primary productivity of the LPJ DGVM by an algorithm based on the annual sum of growing degree-days ( GDD), assuming that maximum plant growth is reached asymptotically with increasing GDD. Results Comparing simulation results with observational data, we show that the locations of both the northern and the alpine tree line are estimated more accurately when using a SiL algorithm than when using the commonly employed SoL algorithm. Also, simulated carbon stocks decrease in a more realistic manner towards the tree line when the SiL algorithm is used. This has far-reaching implications for estimating and projecting present and future carbon stocks in temperature-limited ecosystems. Main conclusions In the range of 60-80° N over Europe and Asia, carbon stored in vegetation is estimated to be c. 50% higher in the LPJ standard version ( LPJ- SoL) compared with LPJ- SiL, resulting in a global difference in estimated biomass of 25 Pg ( c. 5% of the global terrestrial standing biomass). Similarly, the simulated elevation of the upper tree line in the European Alps differs by c. 400 m between the two model versions, thus implying an additional overestimation of carbon stored in mountain forests around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relative importance of niche requirements and dispersal limitation in controlling the landscape-scale distribution of plants is still contentious. Local occurrence and abundance of alpine plants are commonly thought to be driven by abiotic site conditions due to pronounced environmental gradients over short distances. However, explicit tests of the additional role of dispersal-related processes for alpine plant distribution patterns are lacking. Here, we combine niche-based species distribution models with variables describing patch size and connectivity to evaluate if, besides abiotic limitations, spatial habitat configuration affects the occurrence and abundance of six plant species inhabiting patchy snowbed mosaics of the northeastern Calcareous Alps in Austria. Moreover, we assess if eventual effects of spatial patch configuration are more clearly detectable when calculating connectivity based on parameterized mechanistic dispersal kernels for both wind and animal vectors instead of using nearest neighbour metrics. We show that patch size and connectivity are significantly correlated to the occurrence of all and to the abundance of four out of six study species, although the relative importance of these variables, as compared to niche constraints, varies among species. In addition, connectivity measures derived from parameterized dispersal kernels were more closely related to occupancy, and in particular to abundance patterns than a simple nearest neighbour metric. The fitted kernels also suggest that dispersal by alpine chamois plays an important role for inter-patch seed exchange. We conclude that, despite evident abiotic limitations, recurrent local extinctions and delayed re-colonizations indeed play a role for the distribution of our study species, and that alpine plants may hence be less in equilibrium with their abiotic environment than commonly thought. Moreover, the relatively high long-distance dispersal probabilities of animal kernels indicate that the ability of alpine plants to adapt their ranges to a rapidly warming climate may, among other factors, depend on the availability of dispersal services by large mammals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We developed multiple a priori hypotheses to link the observed spatial patterns with colonisation processes in the high alpine cushion plant, Azorella madreporica. We conducted this study in the Molina River basin (33°20′ S, 70°16′ W, 3600 m a.s.l.), in the Andes of central Chile, approximately 50 km east of Santiago. We mapped and measured size (as a surrogate for age) of individual cushions in two populations and used a standard spatial analytical tool (semivariograms) to test our alternative a priori hypotheses related to colonisation mode of the cushion species. In both populations, the size distribution of A. madreporica reflected a negative exponential or inverse-J pattern, typical of uneven-aged populations, where most of the cushions belonged to relatively smaller size classes, in effect, a regular success in the establishment of seedlings, where all size classes of cushions were represented in the population. The results were site-specific, where best-fit semivariograms for spatial cushion's size distribution suggested a gradual colonisation in one population and an episodic colonisation in the other population. Microsite distribution proved to be homogeneous at both sites. Thus, the study of the spatial explicit size-age population distribution of an alpine species provides valuable information about the frequency, magnitude and site variation of the reproductive pulses in these harsh environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To identify floristic elements in the European flora by an analysis of the distributions of species and species groups mapped in Atlas Florae Europaeae. Location Europe, as defined by Flora Europaea. Methods We analysed the native distributions of 2762 species and 33 species’ aggregates from 79 families, which represent c. 20% of the European flora. The distributional data base, derived from Atlas Florae Europaeae, includes records from 4420 50 × 50-km UTM grid squares. We classified species into floristic elements by a three-stage clustering procedure, which consisted of: (1) constructing a dissimilarity hierarchy by complete linkage clustering, using a distance measure based on Jaccard’s coefficient; (2) cutting the hierarchical tree at the 0.95 level to create initial clusters, and forcing small clusters to link with larger ones until the sum of within-group pairwise distances exceeded a threshold value; and (3) checking the allocation of all species to the redefined clusters and reassigning species if appropriate, using the cosine of the angle between the species and cluster centres to measure the similarity of species to clusters. Results The clustering procedure classified 2793 taxa into 18 floristic elements, which included between 66 and 289 taxa; two species had unique, non-overlapping distributions and could not be classified. Main conclusions The analysis highlights the floristic diversity of the mountains of central and southern Europe, and of the Mediterranean region. The floristic elements of northern latitudes and the temperate lowlands tend to be composed of wide-ranging species and include only a low proportion of European endemics. The montane elements, including those centred on montane areas in the Mediterranean region, are composed predominantly of perennial species and include high or very high proportions of European endemics. Classifications that recognize one ‘Alpine’ and one ‘Mediterranean’ biogeographical zone in Europe fail to reflect this floristic diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim This contribution treats the phytogeography of the contemporary campos de altitude flora, with a focus on patterns at the level of genus. Comparative analysis using data from 17 other sites in Latin America is used to describe phytogeographical patterns at the continental scale. Results are combined with those of previous publications to shed light on the biogeographical origins of contemporary floristic patterns in the high mountains of south-east Brazil. Location The campos de altitude are a series of cool-humid, mountaintop grass- and shrublands found above elevations of 1800–2000 m in south-east Brazil, within the biome of the Atlantic Forest. Methods Vascular floras are compiled for the three best-known campos de altitude sites, and for 17 other highland and lowland locations in Latin America. Floras are binned into phytogeographical groups based on centres of diversity/origin. Floristic and geographical distances are calculated for all location-pairs; Mantel tests are used to test for relationships between patterns in geographical distance, and floristic and climatic similarity. Multivariate statistics are carried out on the similarity matrices for all genera, and for each phytogeographical group. Predominant life-forms, pollination and dispersal syndromes are determined for each genus in the campos de altitude flora, and proportional comparisons are made between phytogeographical groups. Supporting evidence from previously published literature is used to interpret analytical results. Results Two-thirds of the genera in the campos de altitude are of tropical ancestry; the remainder are of temperate-zone or cosmopolitan ancestry. Most campos de altitude genera are phanerophytes and hemicryptophytes, insect pollinated, and wind or gravity dispersed, but there are significant differences in the distribution of these traits among phytogeographical groups. The campos de altitude show stronger floristic similarities with other Brazilian mountain sites and distant Andean sites than with nearby low- and middle-elevation sites; these similarities are best explained by climatic similarities. Floristic similarities among sites for temperate genera are better explained by ‘sinuous’ distance (e.g. measured along the spines of mountain ranges) than by direct distance; similarities in tropical genera are more related to direct distance. Different phytogeographical groups appear to be responding to different climatic signals. Main conclusions Many taxa currently living at the summits of the south-east Brazilian Highlands trace their ancestry to temperate latitudes. Patterns of endemism and diversity in the south-east Brazilian mountains point to climatically driven allopatry as a principal mechanism for speciation. The tropical component of the campos de altitude flora is primarily derived from drier, highland environments of the Brazilian interior; the temperate component rises in importance with elevation, but never reaches the levels seen in the tropical Andes. Most temperate taxa in the campos de altitude appear to have arrived via migration through favourable habitat rather than by recent, long-distance dispersal. At least 11% of the plant species in the campos de altitude study sites are directly shared with the Andes. Palynofloras show that the campos de altitude have significantly contracted over the past 10,000 years, as regional temperatures have warmed and become more humid. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim The physiological requirements and tolerances of a species partially determine both its habitat preferences within a community and its broader geographic range. Therefore, we predicted that local ecology should be correlated with geographic distribution. We tested for a correlation between local ecology and range size, and we attempted to account for this correlation by the climate of the range. Location Bishop Creek Watershed, on the eastern side of the Sierra Nevada, California. Methods We recorded all plant species growing in each of 263 plots in the montane to alpine zones of the watershed. The local habitat preferences of 282 species were described in terms of wetness, elevation, soil, and amount of shade. The size and centre of the geographic range for each species were determined from regional floras. Results Wetness preference within the watershed was significantly correlated with range size. Specifically, plants of wet sites had larger ranges that extend to the north, whereas plants of dry sites tended to have smaller ranges centred to the east. The correlation between local wetness preference and range size was entirely explained by the location of the range centre of the species. Main conclusions A possible reason for the large ranges of mesophilic plants in our study area is that mesic habitats are continuous throughout the western Cordillera, while dry alpine habitats are isolated by valleys to the east. The correspondence between local ecology and geographic distributions implies evolutionary stasis in the niches of these plant species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study focused on three species that occur disjunctly between western North America and the Mediterranean region of southern Europe, northern Africa, and western Asia, forming the so-called Madrean-Tethyan distribution pattern. Quantitative morphological characters were measured in New and Old World plants to find any subtle phenotypic differentiation between the disjunct populations. Sequences from the nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer region were obtained from the same populations to assess differentiation at the molecular level and to compare molecular diversity with patterns of morphological similarity among plants. Little or no morphological differentiation existed between New and Old World plants in any of the species, but internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequences revealed some phylogeographic structure. Patterns of morphological similarity in all three species were incongruent with phylogeographic structure revealed by sequence data. New World populations were more variable than Old World populations at the molecular level in the three species. Despite some evidence for differentiation between disjunct plants, no plausible mutation rate would date the divergence at ≥20 million years ago (MYA), as implied by the Madrean-Tethyan hypothesis. Recent long-distance dispersal is a more likely explanation for intercontinental disjunctions in these species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Induced by global warming, mountain plant species are migrating upwards. Species inhabiting the nival zone of today are threatened by competitors which move from the alpine zone towards the summits. The manner in which species move depends on their abilities to cope with microtopographical situations. We present a spatially explicit predictive model which draws scenarios of future species distribution patterns at a typical high mountain of the European Alps. The altitudinal temperature gradient is examined. Based on the lapse rate and on definitions of topographical niches of species, a +1 °C- and a +2 °C-warming scenario are modelled using a fine-scaled digital elevation model. Nival species will lose area and become restricted to specific topographical situations. Alpine and subnival grassland species are predicted to expand their area, mainly along stable surface situations. Whether the migration will take place as a filling or a moving process is specific to the particular species. Overall, biodiversity is apparently not threatened on the decadal scale. In special cases, however, genetic losses are likely both on a local and on a regional scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]