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Models of natural processes necessarily sacrifice some realism for the sake of tractability. Detailed, parameter‐rich models often provide accurate estimates of system behaviour but can be data‐hungry and difficult to operationalize. Moreover, complexity increases the danger of 'over‐fitting', which leads to poor performance when models are applied to novel conditions. This challenge is typically described in terms of a trade‐off between bias and variance (i.e. low accuracy vs. low precision).In studies of ecological communities, this trade‐off often leads to an argument about the level of detail needed to describe interactions among species. Here, we used data from a grassland biodiversity experiment containing nine locally abundant plant species (the Jena 'dominance experiment') to parameterize models representing six increasingly complex hypotheses about interactions. For each model, we calculated goodness‐of‐fit across different subsets of the data based on sown species richness levels, and tested how performance changed depending on whether or not the same data were used to parameterize and test the model (i.e. within vs. out‐of‐sample), and whether the range of diversity treatments being predicted fell inside or outside of the range used for parameterization.As expected, goodness‐of‐fit improved as a function of model complexity for all within‐sample tests. In contrast, the best out‐of‐sample performance generally resulted from models of intermediate complexity (i.e. with only two interaction coefficients per species—an intraspecific effect and a single pooled interspecific effect), especially for predictions that fell outside the range of diversity treatments used for parameterization. In accordance with other studies, our results also demonstrate that commonly used selection methods based on AIC of models fitted to the full dataset correspond more closely to within‐sample than out‐of‐sample performance.Synthesis. Our results demonstrate that models which include only general intra and interspecific interaction coefficients can be sufficient for estimating species‐level abundances across a wide range of contexts and may provide better out‐of‐sample performance than do more complex models. These findings serve as a reminder that simpler models may often provide a better trade‐off between bias and variance in ecological systems, particularly when applying models beyond the conditions used to parameterize them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The inference of pairwise competitive outcomes (PCO) and multispecies competitive ranks and intransitivity from empirical data is essential to evaluate how competition shapes plant communities. Three categories of methods, differing in theoretical background and data requirements, have been used: (a) theoretically sound coexistence theory‐based methods, (b) index‐based methods, and (c) 'process‐from‐pattern' methods. However, how they are related is largely unknown.In this study, we explored the relations between the three categories by explicitly comparing three representatives of them: (a) relative fitness difference (RFD), (b) relative yield (RY), and (c) a reverse‐engineering approach (RE). Specifically, we first conducted theoretical analyses with Lotka–Volterra competition models to explore their theoretical linkages. Second, we used data from a long‐term field experiment and a short‐term greenhouse experiment with eight herbaceous perennials to validate the theoretical findings.The theoretical analyses showed that RY or RE applied with equilibrium data indicated equivalent, or very similar, PCO respectively to RFD, but these relations became weaker or absent with data further from equilibrium. In line with this, both RY and RE converged with RFD in indicating PCO over time in the field experiment as the communities became closer to equilibrium. Moreover, the greenhouse PCO (far from equilibrium) were only similar to the field PCO of earlier rather than later years. Intransitivity was more challenging to infer because it could be reshuffled by even a small competitive shift among similar competitors. For example, the field intransitivity inferred by three methods differed greatly: no intransitivity was detected with RFD; intransitivity detected with RY and RE was poorly correlated, changed substantially over time (even after equilibrium) and failed to explain coexistence.Our findings greatly help the comparison and generalization of studies using different methods. For future studies, if equilibrium data are available, one can infer PCO and multispecies competitive ranks with RY or RE. If not, one should apply RFD with density gradient or time‐series data. Equilibria could be evaluated with T tests or standard deviations. To reliably infer intransitivity, one needs high quality data for a given method to first accurately infer PCO, especially among similar competitors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Darwin's naturalisation hypothesis posing that phylogenetic distance of alien species to native residents predicts invasion success, and Elton's diversity–invasibility hypothesis posing that diversity of native communities confers resistance to invasion, are both rooted in ideas of species coexistence. Because the two hypotheses are inherently linked, the mechanisms underlying them may interact in driving the invasion success. Even so, these links and interactions have not been explicitly disentangled in one experimental study before.To disentangle the links between the two hypotheses, we used 36 native grassland herbs to create greenhouse mesocosms with 90 grassland communities of different diversities, and introduced each of five herbaceous alien species as seeds and seedlings. We used phylogeny and four functional traits (plant height, specific leaf area, leaf size, and seed mass) to calculate different measures of phylogenetic and functional distance and diversity. Specifically, we tested how the alien–native distance (phylogenetic or functional) and the native diversity (phylogenetic or functional) affected each other in their effects on germination, seedling survival, growth, and reproduction of the aliens.Overall, our results supported both hypotheses. Multivariate functional distance based on four traits jointly had stronger positive effects than phylogenetic distance and the univariate ones based on each trait separately. Moreover, the aliens were more successful if they were more competitive by being taller and having larger leaves with a lower SLA than the native residents. Univariate functional diversity based on each trait separately had stronger negative effects than phylogenetic and multivariate functional diversity. Most importantly, we found that the effects of alien–native phylogenetic and multivariate functional distance became stronger as diversity increased. Our analyses with single traits also showed that the strength of the effects of both alien–native hierarchical functional distances (indicative of competitive inequalities) and absolute functional distances (indicative of niche differences) increased at higher diversities, where competition is more severe.Synthesis. Our study explicitly demonstrates for the first time how the mechanisms underlying the two classical invasion hypotheses interact in driving invasion success in grassland communities. This may help to explain some of the puzzling results of studies testing either of the two hypotheses. This study explicitly demonstrates how the mechanisms underlying the two classical invasion hypotheses, Darwin's naturalisation hypothesis and Elton's diversity–invasibility hypothesis, interact in driving the success of alien species in experimental grassland communities. Our findings could help explain some of the puzzling results of studies testing either of the two hypotheses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim A major challenge in ecology is to understand how multiple causal factors, which may interact, drive success of non-native plants in new ranges. In this study we addressed the role of introduction history, climatic suitability, native range size, species traits and their interactions in the establishment of Chinese woody species in Europe. Location China (native range), Europe (new range). Methods We tested whether establishment of 449 Chinese woody species in Europe was associated with residence time (time since earliest planting), planting frequency, climatic suitability, native range size and species traits. We also considered possible nonlinear effects and interactions among these variables. For the 38 species that have established in Europe, we further tested whether these variables and interactions explained their establishment in multiple European countries. Results Establishment of the 449 species in Europe was positively associated with residence time, planting frequency and climatic suitability. Except residence time, these factors were also positively associated with establishment of the 38 species in multiple countries. None of the traits tested had statistically significant main effects on establishment in Europe, but, for the established species, longer flowering period and having compound leaves were positively associated with establishment in multiple countries. The positive association between establishment in Europe and residence time was stronger for evergreen than for deciduous species. In addition, evergreens, unlike deciduous species, showed a positive association between establishment in Europe and fruiting duration. Moreover, establishment in multiple countries was positively associated with planting frequency for species with compound leaves but not for species with simple leaves, and the association between the establishment and fruiting duration changed from negative to moderately positive as climatic suitability increased. Main conclusions Introduction history and climatic suitability explain most of the variation in establishment, and modulate the role of species traits, such as leaf retention, leaf type and fruiting duration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disentangling direct and indirect interactions among alien and native plants is essential to understanding the success of alien plants in multispecies communities, but studies have only focused on direct pairwise interactions. Moreover, it is also essential to explore phylogenetic and functional mechanisms driving these interactions., In a greenhouse experiment, we selected nine groups of alien and native plant species from the herbaceous flora of Germany to disentangle their direct and indirect interactions. Each group had an alien (A) that is common or rare in Germany (i.e. non-native range), two natives that are phylogenetically closely related (Nclose) and distantly related (Ndist) to A respectively, and a distantly related 'target' native (T). We grew the four species of each group alone, and in two-species and three-species combinations. Specifically, we tested whether competition is greater between A and Nclose than between A and Ndist, whether presence of Nclose rather than Ndist indirectly alleviates competition of A on T, and whether these interaction patterns depend on commonness of A. Moreover, we tested how intensity of these interactions is explained by phylogenetic distance, functional traits (height, seed mass, SLA, leaf size, specific root length, leaf area ratio, root length ratio (root length/plant mass), shoot weight ratio) and traits-based functional distance., We found A had stronger competition on Nclose than on Ndist. In turn, A was more suppressed by Nclose than by Ndist, but this was only true for rare rather than common A. The presence of Ndist rather than Nclose indirectly reduced competition of A on T. The intensity of these interactions was not explained by phylogenetic or functional distance, but by some of the functional traits. Specifically, a plant experienced stronger competition when it was shorter and had smaller leaves and lower shoot weight ratio, and when its neighbours were taller, had greater SLA, leaf area ratio and shoot weight ratio, and had a lower root length ratio., Synthesis. Functional traits can help explain competitive interactions. While direct competition tended to be stronger between more closely related alien and native plants, this did not indirectly facilitate other co-occurring native plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]