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The article comments on a previous article related to fertility crisis in modern societies that appeared in the March 2004 issue of the journal Population Studies. Social researchers Francesco Billari, Tomas Frejka, John Hobcraft, Miloslav Macura and Dirk J. van de Kaa broadly endorse authors' paper, while adding valuable supplementary and complementary material. Authors concur with most of the regional and technical elaborations they propose. However, authors take issue with some of the points raised by van de Kaa and Hobcraft, most of which refer to authors' article. Authors assume that no one regards the Western demographic transition over the last century or two as being independent of the Industrial Revolution, as being something that would have happened if incomes had stayed at eighteenth-century levels. If the world passes, in little more than two centuries, from being one of high fertility with a potential for rapid growth as mortality falls, to one where global population is declining then researchers who do not seek overarching explanations may be little heeded.

The author reacts to comments made to his article. Perhaps Professor C. Roseman has overstated his case a bit when he asserts that three aspects of the author's paper may have been "quite misleading." Perhaps Roseman's concern about the theory of stepwise regression may be valid, but the author is happy to be able to set his mind at ease about the real world evidence with which he dealt. Perhaps Roseman has fallen into the beguiling trap of confusing statistical association with cause-and-effect explanation. Certainly population continued to increase in many resort areas during the 1970s, but one must entertain serious doubts about anyone who tries to ex- plain population increase by counting the number of empty houses.

There is a significant and deadly link between air-borne pandemics (for example, COVID-19) and air pollution, as airborne particulate matter enhances the spread of such diseases. Moreover, economically disadvantaged groups are more susceptible. This paper analyses the effects of health expenditure on carbon emissions in BRICS (that is, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries from 2000 to 2017. The Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FM-OLS), the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger causality and the Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality tests are employed. In terms of aggregate health expenditure, the level of current health expenditure is significantly and negatively connected with carbon emissions. With regard to disaggregated variables, private health expenditure is also negatively and significantly linked to emissions. However, domestic general government health expenditure and external health expenditure are positively and significantly associated with carbon emissions. Country-specific results are also provided. The causality tests confirm bi-directional causality between the level of current health expenditure, private health expenditure, and domestic general government health expenditure, and carbon emissions. External health expenditure in BRICS does not cause emissions, and vice-versa. VECM causal links are also discussed. The results point to the need to review health expenditure sub-policy programs to achieve zero-carbon targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The outbreak of COVID-19 was first experienced in Wuhan City, China, during December 2019 before it rapidly spread over globally. This paper has proposed a mathematical model for studying its transmission dynamics in the presence of face mask wearing and hospitalization services of human population in Tanzania. Disease-free and endemic equilibria were determined and subsequently their local and global stabilities were carried out. The trace-determinant approach was used in the local stability of disease-free equilibrium point while Lyapunov function technique was used to determine the global stability of both disease-free and endemic equilibrium points. Basic reproduction number, R 0 , was determined in which its numerical results revealed that, in the presence of face masks wearing and medication services or hospitalization as preventive measure for its transmission, R 0 = 0.698 while in their absence R 0 = 3.8. This supports its analytical solution that the disease-free equilibrium point E 0 is asymptotically stable whenever R 0 < 1 , while endemic equilibrium point E ∗ is globally asymptotically stable for R 0 > 1. Therefore, this paper proves the necessity of face masks wearing and hospitalization services to COVID-19 patients to contain the disease spread to the population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we respond to the useful comments made by J. J. Bissell 2017, on our paper Garnett et al 2015. We use this opportunity to explain in more detail our use of agent based modelling of historical processes, and how it can raise interesting and thought provoking questions that could be answered by additional historical research. In this case, questions around the possible relationship with the size of the British banking sector and the formation of new banks. We also take the opportunity to present further data on on the possible reasons for the rise and fall in the population of British banks, and suggest that the 'tipping point' might not have been such a radical change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid population growth has had a significant impact on society, economy and environment, which will challenge the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Spatially accurate and detailed population distribution data are essential for measuring the impact of population growth and tracking progress on the SDGs. However, most population data are evenly distributed within administrative units, which seriously lacks spatial details. There are scale differences between the population statistical data and geospatial data, which makes data analysis and needed research difficult. The disaggregation method is an effective way to obtain the spatial distribution of population with greater granularity. It can also transform the statistical population data from irregular administrative units into regular grids to characterize the spatial distribution of the population, and the original population count is preserved. This paper summarizes the research advances of population disaggregation in terms of methodology, ancillary data, and products and discusses the role of spatial disaggregation of population statistical data in monitoring and evaluating SDG indicators. Furthermore, future work is proposed from two perspectives: challenges with spatial disaggregation and disaggregated population as an Essential SDG Variable (ESDGV). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a malaria transmission model to describe the dynamics of malaria transmission in the human and mosquito populations. This model emphasizes the impact of limited resource on malaria transmission. We derive a formula for the basic reproductive number of infection and investigate the existence of endemic equilibria. It is shown that this model may undergo backward bifurcation, where the locally stable disease-free equilibrium co-exists with an endemic equilibrium. Furthermore, we determine conditions under which the disease-free equilibrium of the model is globally asymptotically stable. The global stability of the endemic equilibrium is also studied when the basic reproductive number is greater than one. Finally, numerical simulations to illustrate our findings and brief discussions are provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic and population growth have led to an unprecedented increase in the value at risk in coastal zones over the last century. To avoid excessive future losses, particularly in the light of projected climate change impacts, coastal zone managers have various instruments at their disposal. These primarily concern land-use planning (establishing buffer zones) and engineering solutions (beach nourishment and coastal protection). In this paper, we focus on risk mitigation through the implementation of buffer zones (setback lines). Foregoing land-use opportunities in coastal regions and protecting coasts is costly, but so is damage caused by inundation and storm erosion. Defining appropriate setback lines for land-use planning purposes is a balancing act. It is, however, unclear what level of protection is facilitated by current approaches for defining setback lines, and whether this is, at least from an economic perspective, sufficient. In this paper, we present an economic model to determine which setback lines would be optimal from an economic perspective. The outcomes of the model provide a useful reference point in the political debate about the acceptability of risk in coastal zones. The main conclusions are: (i) that it is useful to define setback lines on the basis of their exceedance probabilities; (ii) that the exceedance probability of an economically efficient setback line will typically be in the order of magnitude of 1/100 per year; (iii) that it is important to distinguish between situations in which morphological conditions are stationary and non-stationary; and (iv) that long-term uncertainties (eg. due to climate change) influence the exceedance probability of efficient setback lines but only to a limited extent. The economic model stresses the need for a probabilistic approach to beach erosion modelling. The recently-developed Probabilistic Coastal Setback Line was applied at Narrabeen beach, Sydney, Australia, to illustrate how economically optimal setback lines can be derived for specific sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the first months of 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic has driven social distancing measures in many countries, which have made it potentially more attractive to reside in less populated areas. This paper visualizes whether the registered populations in municipalities with fewer than 2000 inhabitants in Spanish regions have changed during 2020 in a different way than previous years. The per cent variation of the rural population is measured, as well as the proportion of the rural population over the total population, in two periods: January 2000-January 2020 and during 2020. The results show an increase in the rural population in 13 of the 17 Spanish regions, and an increase in the proportion in 14 regions during 2020, in contrast to the declining trends prevailing in previous years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we establish a mathematical model with two delays to reflect the intrinsic and extrinsic incubation periods of virus in dengue transmission. The basic reproduction number R 0 of the model is defined. It is proved that the disease-free equilibrium is stable when R 0 < 1 and the positive equilibrium is stable when R 0 > 1. Next, we derive an estimation formula for the reproduction number R t when the human population is partially susceptible to dengue. As an application, the R t values of dengue transmission in Singapore in the years 2013–2015 are estimated. Our estimation method can be applied to estimating R t of other infectious diseases, especially when the human population is not completely susceptible to the disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the emerging interest in the relationship between homeostatic models and demographic transition theory. Firstly, it considers the nature of fertility measurement and concepts. The paper then goes on to examine evidence from pre-transitional societies in which demographic regimes have been most thoroughly studied, summarizing what is known about their character. The nature and current status of homeostatic theories in demography and the institutional supports of pre-transitional regimes are considered. The implications of the findings on pre-transitional populations for transition theory are then discussed. The paper concludes with suggestions for ways in which studies of transition within a framework of homeostatic regimes could be developed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper discusses translation formulae for time-dependent cohort and period quantum for non-repeatable events. Cohort quantum expressions are investigated for two cases: one in which period quantum, and another in which the sum of the period rates decreases linearly with time. En both cases the assumption is that period tempo does not change. Sufficient conditions are given for the situation in which the cohort quantum simply equals the period quantum measured at the time when the cohort reaches the mean age of the period schedule of age-specific rates, given that the period rate sum is a polynomial function of time. The paper takes up an issue which was unresolved in the article `Translation formulae for none repeatable events" which appeared in the July 1994 issue of Population Studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's population is large and its annual growth significant. Since the mid-1950s, the Chinese government has made four attempts to curb the growth and hopes to limit the total population to 1.2 billion by the year 2000. Thus it has established a policy of limiting families to one child each. These efforts of population control have been successful in cities but have fallen short in rural areas. Using the 1982 Chinese census and data from a national sampling on fertility, this paper examines the urban-rural contrasts in demographic and marital behavior, rates of growth, and implementation of the one child policy. It discusses the variables, such as education, occupation, and political factors, that affect the urban and rural populations. The majority of rural couples still desire a larger family. The paper probes the reasons for this and finds that the traditional concerns of old age and family propagation are more important than are economic reasons, such as increasing the family labor force. To implement the one child policy local governments have set forth directives againts second and higher-order births. They also are promoting the development of small towns and the transference of farmers to nonagricultural jobs. The government is attempting to integrate urban and rural administrations and to establish "'population development regions" around the country so that cities can play a central role in population control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shifts of population and jobs out of the snow belt and into the sun belt are currently in progress in the United States. Many aspects of these shifts constitute a reversal of long-run trends conventionally explained in terms of "growth inertia" concepts, such as the ones incorporated in cumulative causation and growth pole theories. The model discussed in this paper focuses upon the switch of regional economies from growth to decline, or vice-versa, that are exemplified by these shifts. Catastrophe theory concepts and formalisms account for sudden transitions between growth and decline produced by smooth transitions of systemic variables past critical thresholds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The United Kingdom s Old Age Pensions Act of 1908 instituted means-tested, non- contributory pensions for men and women aged 70 or over. The pension and the lack of civil registration of births before 1864 caused many Irish to exaggerate their ages in the Census of 1911. In this paper a linked sample from the manuscript censuses of 1901 and 1911 is used to estimate the magnitude and determinants of this age mis- representation. Our results show three types of age discrepancies: those associated with a significant reduction in age-heaping; those associated with efforts to obtain a pension before age 70; and some apparent age-exaggeration unconnected with the Old Age Pension. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inverse projection and back projection are two methods for exploiting long historical series of births and deaths to produce estimates of population size and age structure, net migration, and vital rates. While inverse projection requires extraneous information on population size at scattered dates, back projection does not. In this paper I argue that back projection attempts an impossible task, and can only arbitrarily select one demographic past from among an infinite set of equally plausible and acceptable ones, which are also consistent with the input data. inverse projection, on the other hand, is more modest in its goal, but is robust and straightforward. In an important and outstanding book, Wrigley and Schofield use back projection to reconstruct English demographic history from 1539 to 1871. In this paper, inverse projection is used to replicate their reconstruction under assumptions that are in important respects weaker, although these estimates are contingent on independent population size estimates for 1541 and 1696. The results buttress Wrigley and Schofield's reconstruction. However, it is argued that their data and reconstruction cannot offer independent evidence for the general levels of population before the mid-eighteenth century; rather, they help us to interpolate among benchmarks for which we have extraneous evidence, and contingent on these benchmarks, fill in the rich details of the demographic past. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses various issues related to immigration, population, and the Canadian future. Unlike the American and Australian studies, the Canadian Immigration and Population Study otherwise known as the "Green Paper" on immigration, was undertaken by a small group of bureaucrats in the Canada's Department of Manpower and Immigration and not by an independent commission. A number of reports on specific questions relating population and immigration were prepared by outside consultants, and some of these have been published as supplementary reports to the Green Paper, which was released early in 1975. Public discussion of the Green Paper on immigration has tended to emphasize the ethnic aspects and to be polarized around the question of whether Canadian immigration policy and the Green Paper itself-is "racist." Representatives of the black and Asian groups are afraid that the adoption of quotas, or other measures in the future will result in the restoration of de facto racial discrimination. Right wing groups advocating "white supremacy" consider that Canada has already gone too far in the direction of a liberal "open door" policy and should revert to the practice of restricting non-white immigration. Between these two extremes are the advocates of "zero population growth," who claim not to favor discrimination, but who argue instead in favor of a substantial reduction in total immigration. Given the recentness of immigration from Third World countries, such a policy would, in practice, have the same effect as reinstituting racial discrimination or imposing quotas proportional to the present ethnic composition of the Canadian population.

The importance and usefulness of establishment microdata for economic research and policy analysis is outlined and contrasted with traditional establishment-based products of statistical agencies—aggregate cross-section tabulations. Using examples of research and analysis conducted at the U.S. Bureau of the Census's Center for Economic Studies, which offers opportunities for researchers from academia and government to access confidential economic microdata, it is argued that statistical agencies must begin to seriously rethink the way they view establishment data products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amongst other things, election year 2017 will be remembered for record levels of permanent and long-term migration. Immigration featured regularly in the media, both as a topic in its own right, as well as a factor associated with a deepening housing crisis in Auckland, increasing congestion on the roads in Auckland and in major tourist towns, and much faster population growth than had been anticipated. Yet immigration was not a prominent issue in either the election or during the first six months of the Labour-led Coalition Government. In this paper we assess the impact of policy changes introduced by the National Government in October 2016 and July 2017. Our analysis draws on several data sets, some of which have been withdrawn from public access regrettably. Declining net migration gains and concerns over exploitation of people on study and short-term work visas has delayed major changes in immigration policy through to June 2018. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the 1990s, Lithuania lost almost one-quarter of its population, and some regions within the country lost more than 50% of their residents. Such a sharp population decline poses major challenges to politicians, policy-makers and planners. The aim of this study is to obtain more insight into the recent processes of socio-spatial change and the role of selective migration in Lithuania. The main focus is on understanding who lives in those regions which are rapidly losing population, and who is most likely to leave these regions. This is one of the first studies to use individual-level Lithuanian census data from 2001 and 2011. We found that low socio-economic status residents and older residents dominate the population of shrinking regions, and unsurprisingly that the most ‘successful’ people are the most likely to leave such regions. This process of selective migration reinforces the negative downward spiral of declining regions. As a result, socio-spatial polarization is growing within the country, where people with higher socio-economic status are increasingly overrepresented in the largest city-regions, while the elderly and residents with a lower socio-economic status are overrepresented in declining rural regions. This paper provides empirical evidence of selective migration and increasing regional disparities in Lithuania. While the socio-spatial changes are obvious in Lithuania, there is no clear strategy on how to cope with extreme population decline and increasing regional inequalities within the country. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Do countries with serious inequality problems make a greater effort to rectify this situation? Is equality a key element in social spending budget design? We attempt to answer these, and other, questions throughout this article. The objective of this paper is to analyze the economic and institutional factors influencing, to a greater or lesser degree, social spending in the 27 countries that comprise the European Union (EU). To this end, we use a data panel for a period of eleven years and add further variables to those generally used, such as income distribution, poverty rate, governing party ideology, index of economic freedom, and belonging to the Eurozone. The results we obtained prove that the estimated model is robust, and that economic development, economic freedom, and the euro currency creation have all led to greater social spending. However, growing income inequality has not led to an increase in social expenditure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives. This is the second of 2 papers reporting on the result of the Circumpolar Inuit Cancer Review, an international collaborative effort involving researchers and health officials from Alaska, Canada and Greenland. Methods. Inuit cancer cases by age-sex group and anatomic site were obtained from the regional cancer registries. Results. Cancer in general is increasing among Inuit, in all regions, and among both men and women. Inuit continue to be at extreme high risk, relative to non-Inuit and to comparisons of global populations, for the historically recognized so-called traditional cancers (such as cancer of the nasopharynx and salivary glands). Among the so-called modern cancers prevalent in developed societies, lung cancer is rapidly increasing in incidence (especially in Canada), such that the rate in both Inuit men and women is the highest in the world; other cancers, such as colorectal cancer, are also on the rise (especially in Alaska), while breast and prostate cancer remain low relative to the non-Inuit population. The decline in cervical cancer is a positive development; in the 3 regions, the rate in Greenland is the highest. Conclusions. Data such as these can form the basis of interventions directed towards known risk factors such as smoking, diet, obesity, viral and bacterial infections, and low screening prevalence. Cancer surveillance is a basic task of the public health system; in the Arctic, it is particularly important as Inuit continue to undergo further changes in their life-styles and social environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the 'crisis years' in Solomon Islands from 1998-2003, Guadalcanal militants and the Guadalcanal provincial government showed resentment to the 'foreign' Solomon Islanders, mainly Malaitans, who lived there and forcefully claimed that the indigenous people of Guadalcanal suffered economic disadvantage on their own island. Malaitan counter-justification related to the need to protect their families in Honiara and stabilise the crumbling central government. This paper looks at the historical reasons why Malaitans left their island in the first place. The answer involves complex causes going back to the 1870s. Because Malaita has always been heavily populated, it drew labour recruiters from Queensland, Fiji and within the Protectorate, but for various reasons never attracted traders or planters. Unthinkingly encouraged by the British Protectorate administration and all post-independence governments, a pattern developed of 'Malaitan muscle for hire'. Malaitan males became primarily a labour force for development projects elsewhere, and little attempt was made to introduce similar projects on Malaita. The paper also explores issues relating to resource development in Malaita Province and concludes that the problems there are no more difficult than on other large Melanesian islands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper identifies a number of significant contemporary trends in the Latino population, including the striking growth of the community new points of entry and settlement for recent immigrants, the mixed-status nature of families, and the increase in the proportion of U.S. households that speak Spanish. The implications of these trends for social welfare practice, programming, policy, and social work education are discussed in the context of a dynamic political climate regarding immigration. The paper concludes with a focus on the critical role of schools of social work in developing more meaningful responses to bilingual manpower needs and the complex cultural and social policy issues this community presents. Examples of curricular and programmatic responses are provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the cultural turn in economic geography, the emphasis on economic necessity when explaining participation in alternative consumption spaces (i.e. informal and/or second-hand retail channels) has been contested by an agency-orientated cultural reading that views engagement in such spaces as about the search for fun, sociality, distinction, discernment, the spectacular and so forth, and more recently by a geographically sensitive approach that ascribes agency to affluent populations and economic rationales to deprived populations. Drawing upon evidence collected during 120 face-to-face interviews in the English city of Leicester, however, this paper finds that people's reasons for engaging in such practices cannot be reduced simply to either economic necessity or agency. Instead, it reveals that such either/or thinking obfuscates how both co-exist in people's explanations for engagement and combine in contrasting ways in different neighbourhood types, modes of goods acquisition and according to the type of good sought. The outcome of this paper is thus to transcend and reconcile previous reductive explanations using a both/and approach that recognises the varying ways in which economic necessity and choice are entangled in rationales for participation in alternative consumption spaces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An Native Americans segregated within urban areas in the United States? To date, the issue of urban segregation has been considered in reference to all racial groups with the exception of Native Americans. This paper addressee that gap by presenting the results from an analysis of 1990 U.S. Census data. The spatial assimilation and the metropolitan context models are used to isolate the factors that an associated with Native American segregation from whites. These models emphasize the importance of group and city-level characteristics respectively. The patterns of Native American-white segregation an than compared to the patterns of black-white spatial segregation. The results indicate that, although their rates of segregation an lower than those for blacks, Native Americans are not completely spatially segregation with whites. While income and region an related to bath Native American and black segregation, the city economic, populations, and housing characteristics are only associated with black segregation. Clearly, the factors that are associated with Native American segregation are ones that teed further theoretical and empirical exploration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the preceding issue of this journal, a generalized version of the Brass growth balance method was proposed that made it applicable to populations that are not stable and are open to migration. In this companion paper, the results of applying this new procedure to data from India's Sample Registration System for the decades 1971-80 and 1981-90 are discussed. The results at the national level show that, during the decade 1981-90, 5 per cent of the deaths among men, 12 per cent of the deaths among women, and about 7 per cent of births were being missed by the system. Further, it is estimated that the level of under-enumeration in the 1991 Census was more than that of the 1981 Census by 0.7 per cent for males and 1.4 per cent for females. The paper also presents results for major Indian states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the particular challenges that tobacco control poses for health governance in an era of accelerating globalization. Traditionally, health systems have been structured at the national level, and health regulation has focused on the needs of populations within individual countries. However, the increasingly global nature of the tobacco industry, and the risks it poses to public health, require a transnational approach to regulation. This has been the rationale behind negotiations for a Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) by the Tobacco Free Initiative of the World Health Organization (TFI/WHO). In recognition of the need to go beyond national governments, and to create a governance mechanism that can effectively address the transnational nature of the tobacco epidemic, WHO has sought to involve a broad range of interests in negotiations. The contributions of civil society groups in particular in the negotiation process have been unusual. This paper explores the nature and effectiveness of these contributions. It concludes with an assessment of whether the FCTC constitutes a significant shift towards a new form of global health governance, exploring the institutional tensions inherent in attempting to extend participation within a state-centric organization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers a number of key concepts relevant to biological determinants of human sexuality, including sexual differentiation, brain mechanisms involved in sexual response, the role of sex hormones, and the sexual effects of drugs. The paper concludes with consideration of how little is known about the interaction between biology and culture in shaping human sexuality, and the need for research in this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the experiences of a hitherto invisible and possibly increasing population in England, namely young homeless lesbian, gay and bisexual people. It draws on preliminary findings from research into transitions for young lesbian, gay and bisexual people that took homelessness as one theoretically informed focus. The paper explores two main questions. Firstly, how far and in what ways does sexuality play a role in a housing crisis? Secondly, why have the experiences of young people who may be questioning their sexuality been neglected in service provision and in the mainstream literature on leaving home and homelessness? Qualitative and quantitative evidence is brought together to suggest that a sizeable proportion of young homeless people may be lesbian, gay and bisexual, and that issues of sexuality have had an important bearing on their circumstances. At a time when it may be easier than before for a person to come out at a younger age, the risks associated with constructing identity and lifestyles against the norm should not be underestimated. Accounts of sexuality that ignore wider material circumstances do so at their peril. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

State-building is normally associated with the setting-up of institutions such as the army, police force, judiciary and political system. By considering the Palestinian case of state-building, the paper relies on constructivist analysis to examine the use of surveillance as a discursive practice in State construction. Two central aspects of surveillance practices are considered in this paper: population count and spatial monitoring. Examination of these practices is situated in the asymmetrical power relations between Israel and the Palestinians. Conflict over land and people is manifested in the construction of citizenship, identities and geographical boundaries. The paper examines the historical and contemporary role of the census in both the Palestinian and Israeli case in the social construction of spaces and categorization of people. Examples are drawn from the first Israeli census taken in 1948, the monitoring of Palestinian refugees by the United Nations, and the contest over Jerusalem and borders as a consequence of the Oslo Agreement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents a new type of parametric transition rate model that is particularly suitable for studying household and union formation. In such studies, it is often not easy to determine the moment at which individuals actually enter the population at risk - or at least when the risk begins to become socially important. Even in the presence of regulations stipulated by law, one might be interested in studying 'social' timetables. We assume that there is a constant rate for any duration and that after a certain threshold point a log-logistic rate is added, with this threshold as its time origin. This can be justified in a behavioural sense by assuming that random and social transitions arise from separate processes. We then apply the model to union formation in Italy and show how threshold and intensity effects generated by theoretical hypotheses can be revealed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since its inception in 1974, the South African family planning programme has been widely believed to be linked with white fears of growing black numbers. The programme has been repeatedly attacked by detractors as a programme of social and political control. Yet, in spite of the hostile environment, black women's use of services has steadily increased. Using historical and anthropological evidence, this paper delineates the links between the social and political context of racial domination and individual fertility behaviour. It is argued that the quantitative success of the family planning programme is rooted in social and economic shifts conditioning reproductive authority and fertility decision-making. State policies of racial segregation and influx control, ethnic 'homeland' politics, and labour migration of men transformed opportunities and constraints for black women and men, and altered local and household expectations of childbearing. Women came to manage their own fertility as they increasingly found themselves in precarious social and economic circumstances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The earth is continually bombarded by high-energy cosmic ray particles, and the worldwide average exposure to cosmic rays represents about 13% of the total annual effective dose received by the population. Therefore, assessment of cosmic ray exposure at the ground level is of great interest to better understand population exposure to ionizing radiation. This paper presents and describes the European Annual Cosmic-Ray Dose Map at 1 km resolution (Main Map). TheMain Mapdisplays the annual effective dose that a person may receive from cosmic rays at the ground level, which ranges from 301 to 3955 μSv. Moreover, thanks to the availability of population data, the annual cosmic-ray collective dose has been evaluated and population-weighted average annual effective dose (per capita) due to cosmic ray has been estimated for each European country considered in this study. The accuracy of the present study has been confirmed by comparing our results with those obtained using other models. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Understanding how GCC is affecting the biological diversity of the Andes is of utmost importance and timeliness given the relevance of the region for biological conservation. Our research questions were (1) what is the spatial (country-level) and temporal distribution of the scientific research exploring links between GCC and biodiversity in the Andean region? (2) What are the methodological approximations, areas of research and subjects of study most commonly considered? And (3) What are the trends in biodiversity responses most commonly found under different GCC stressors? We found that the first paper on GCC and biodiversity in the Andes was published in 2001. Since then the annual rate of publications, as well as the variety of areas of research, has risen steeply. The 65 published articles we found are likely to represent 1% of the scientific literature dealing with tropical ecology. Of those, more than half of the studies were conducted in a single country, used mostly observation rather than modelling or experimental methodological approaches, and focused mainly on plants. Studies dealing with birds, mammals and reptiles were notoriously underrepresented. The high number of GCC stressors and the great variety of responses found in this synthesis makes it difficult to draw general conclusions. However, we found that observational, modelling and experimental studies report negative GCC impacts on the biological diversity of the region. Most generally, observation and modelling studies report contractions of the distribution ranges of Andean species, and negative effects on species population densities and individual performance. We conclude our review suggesting that networking, recovering historic field data and conducting large-scale ecosystem experimental studies are critical to improve our knowledge on the effects of GCC on Andean biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This contribution to the study of the literacy transition in Britain, Ireland, and Australia also touches on the relationship between literacy and international migration. Some 20,000 emigrants arrived in Australia in 1841 and their literacy is here established at the individual level, and then related to regional origins, occupations, religion, sex, and family status in the British Isles. The new Australian data offer unusual evidence to juxtapose with the prevailing account of British and Irish literacy. The paper makes systematic comparisons of the immigrant evidence with existing literacy findings for the populations of England and Wales, of Ireland, and the colonial population of Australia in the year 1841. The results also show extraordinary similarity of rank orderings between the Australian data and the conventional sources. The results show that the immigrants were consistently more literate than the home and the receiving populations and indicate a substantial link between migration and literacy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population estimates play an important role in the allocation of resources at many levels of government and commerce but little is known about the accuracy of age-specific population estimates. Such knowledge is crucial, as resource allocation is often targeted at populations of particular age, and decisions need to be based on the reliability of the estimates. This paper presents a multi-level statistical analysis of the accuracy of age-specific population estimates made for British local authorities in 1991. The aim of this work is to identify the factors that influence accuracy, and to investigate how these influences interact. Our analyses show that the following area characteristics are key factors: true population size; intercensal population change; and percentages of unemployed residents, armed forces residents, and students. In addition, we find that the overall type of method used to calculate estimates is important, and that its effect varies both with area characteristics and with age-group. Local census methods are found to be generally superior, but a low-cost apportionment method, if implemented well, may be as effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the timing and means of the fertility transition on the Greek island of Mykonos in the period 1879 to 1959. By combining the results of family reconstitution with oral evidence, an unusual insight into the pathways of the fertility transition of this island population is offered. The paper concludes by outlining a model of the adoption of fertility control, a model which sees the transition from high to low fertility as a transition from spacing to stopping, and from innovation of methods to innovation of ideas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationships that exist between consumer shopping behavior and the population sizes of central places. The discussion begins by establishing the production characteristics for bundles in a Christaller-type system. Then a multipurpose shop- ping model of the neoclassical variety is developed. This allows specification of trips generated and quantities demanded at any location in the system. Consumer demand for bundles is next aggregated according to the system's geometry, and population size is identified by setting supply (production) equal to aggregate demand for each bundle. Two results are numerically indicated. First, multipurpose shopping behavior creates intralevel variability in central place sizes. Second, a shift from single-purpose behavior to multipurpose behavior generates population declines in small places and population increases in large places. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 1758, an article containing the view that resources limit population growth was published in Copenhagen. This paper gives a short presentation of the author Otto Diderich Lütken's life and literary production. His radical views on the question of population are given, and a comparison is made with the theories of Thomas Robert Malthus. A brief account of his views on other economic issues is also presented. The literature concerning his writings is reviewed. A discussion of who influenced him, and of his influence on others, ends this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demographic projection models describe the development over time of the population in terms of events. A consistency problem arises if projected numbers of events are required to satisfy certain constraints: the consistency problem can be seen as a generalization of the well-known two-sex problem in nuptiality models. This paper presents a very general characterization of consistency problems, using matrix notation, as well as a slightly less general algorithm to solve them. The preferred specification of the objective function to be minimized by the algorithm leads to a solution that can be interpreted as a generalization of the harmonic-mean approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents views of the author on the paper related to relation between the actual growth rate of any population and its intrinsic rate of natural increase, by Samuel Preston, published in November 1988 issue of the journal "Population Studies." The author says that according to the paper the momentum of population growth is entirely confined to the age span above T number. In a population whose vital rates have suddenly changed to stationary levels, those younger than T number neither more nor less than they will number in the ultimate stationary population.

This paper demonstrates that, to a close approximation, the intrinsic growth rate of a population is equal to the mean of age-specific growth rates below age T, the mean length of a generation. This mean is normally close to the growth rate of the entire population block below age T. Therefore, when a disparity exists between the intrinsic growth rate and the actual growth rate of a population (whether or not net migration is included in both rates), it must be attributable to an unusual growth rate of the population block above age T. One implication is that the 'momentum of population growth' is entirely confined to the age span above T, approximately age 28 in developing countries to-day. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In ordinary demographic projection, the starting age structure of a population ceases to matter after a time, whatever changes the birth and death rates undergo within bounds. The inhomogeneous or 'weak' ergodic theorem asserts this eventual independence of starting state. Does the same independence hold true for inverse projection? This paper proves that the answer is 'yes' provided the model life-table family satisfies certain reasonable conditions, but that the answer can be 'no', if more extreme life-table families are allowed. The inhomogeneous ergodic theorem for inverse projection proved here, and the counter-examples to its extension, have implications for the validation of aggregative reconstructions in historical demography and to the contemporary forecasting of sub-populations subject to constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an analysis of levels of life expectancy and their patterns of change among six socio-economically differentiated sub-populations of England and Wales for the period 1851-1911. Differences in mortality levels among these sub-groups and their rates of change are analyzed with respect to three groups of explanatory variables, viz., environmental, stratification and demographic variables. Their relative importance for different periods is assessed and discussed. The findings show consistency with two previous studies, which have suggested that medical advances had little effect on the increase in life expectancy during the second half of the nineteenth century. The present paper supports the results of one study in that public health measures affected life expectancies earlier, while subsequently, the increase in standards of living was more important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The net reproduction ratio (NRR) is a useful measure of the growth of a population from one generation to the next. Like the expectation of life, it is based on a stable or Malthusian population and is not influenced by the actual population structure. Its use in this country was first advocated by Robert Kuczynski in the 1930s and, despite some reservations, it is still published for this and many other countries, particularly in the United Nations Demographic Yearbook. Kuczynski attributed its origin to Richard Boeckh, who, at the relevant time, around 1890, was Director of the Statistical Office of the City of Berlin. Boeckh discusses his data and the problems met. He estimates, for example, that two-ninths of all illegitimate children are subsequently legitimized by the marriage of their parents. In a census they are reported as legitimate, producing an inconsistency between census and registration data. He checks reliability, for example by showing that the decrease in the number of marriages with successive numbers of children is regular. At that time, no details of mother's age at birth were collected at registration in England. For this reason, Farr starts with Norwegian data as preferable to those from Scotland, Sweden or Denmark where this information was also available.

This paper examines the impact of the demographic transition upon the potential supply of, and demand for, family support for the aged in Australia. Using census and survey information on population cohorts entering old age, comparisons are drawn concerning their surviving issue, household composition and family membership. Long-term changes in fertility are shown to have had only a small impact upon the supply of potential carers among relatives and, although the demographic transition has led to a more universal inclusion of old people in family networks, there have not been major changes through time in the proportions living in extended family households. Short-term changes, however, such as low fertility during the 1930s, have caused disordered cohort flow, with the result that current generations of the elderly are members of deprived cohorts in terms of their access to family support. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on population dynamics which is based on birth intervals and parity progression. The parity progression model developed in this paper enables you to calculate the future population that will result from the operation of a given set of parity progression ratios and birth-interval distributions on an initial series of births distributed by order, just as the conventional method of population projection allows you to calculate the future population that will result from the operation of given age-schedules of fertility and mortality on an initial age distribution. The parity progression model embodies an approach to the measurement of fertility which is based on parity progression schedules, just as Lotka's model is based on age-specific birth rates. Parity progression schedules which incorporate parity progression rates and birth-interval distributions are arguably the most natural approach to the measurement of fertility. When people think about having children, they think in terms of whether or not and when to have a first or a subsequent birth.

This paper focuses on population change in Bali. Bali is a relatively small island with a population of about 2.5 million. Consequently, a growing trend toward demographic stability there may be small consolation to some who are concerned with rapid growth in Java, where the population exceeds 90 million. However, Bali is of interest for other reasons as well. Unlike some other Asian societies where there have recently been major declines in birth rates, such as Taiwan, Singapore and Korea, Bali's declining growth rate has occurred largely in the absence of such social processes as rapid urbanization and industrialization. Much of the new information presented in this paper was collected during the Model Banjar Survey, which was conducted in eastern Bali in 1979. The study was commissioned to gather socioeconomic information from a large sample of households from communities in different social and natural environments. More than 100 variables were examined, including vital statistics, health indices, housing, literacy, education, and household economic data.