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The Himalaya and Hengduan Mountains (HDM) are recognized as two global biodiversity hotspots, harboring the world's richest alpine flora. However, to what extent the distribution of alpine plants here is affected by climate change remains largely unknown. Bergenia (Saxifragaceae) are perennial medicinal herbs mainly distributed in the Himalaya-HDM region. In this study, we used bioclimatic data for current and future climate scenarios to assess the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of three Bergenia (Saxifragaceae) species. Our results revealed that the geographical distribution of the studied Bergenia species is primarily influenced by precipitation and elevation. By 2090, the three Bergenia species are expected to show contrasting range changes. The western Himalayan alpine species Bergenia stracheyi is expected to expand its range with 21.93 and 17.36% under the optimistic (SSP1-2.6) and moderate (SSP2-4.5) climate change scenario, respectively, while its distribution will shrink by 5.26% under the pessimistic scenario (SSP5-8.5). The Himalayan mid-elevation species B. ciliata is expected to expand its range from 142.42 to 157.14%. In contrast, the distribution range of the east Himalaya-HDM alpine species B. purpurascens is expected to shrink with 34.88 to 47.24%, with most of the habitats in the southeast chains of the HDM at lower elevation summits being lost. In addition, all three Bergenia species are projected to shift their ranges to higher elevations in response to temperature increases. Overall, we conclude that alpine plants may be more vulnerable to climate change than their congeners at lower elevations, supporting the "nowhere to go" hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observed climate change leads to the variations in the phenology, physiology, and biochemistry of grape berries, to a shift in the distribution of the grape plant areas and, as a result, to a change in the specialization of associated regions. Using the agroclimatic indicators for a comprehensive assessment of the climate change impact on viticulture, a comprehensive assessment of the grape growth conditions, potential quality of wine, and the climate-related risks in the Crimea and Donbass (on the example of Sevastopol and Artemovsk) over two 30-year periods (1961–1990 and 1991–2020) has been carried out. The results have shown a significant change in climatic conditions: an increase in heat availability in both regions and a decrease in frost susceptibility in the south of Donbass. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is very important for the distribution of plant resources, especially for crops. Angelica plants have a long history of use and significant crop resources in China, whose rhizomes are extensively used in medicine and food. In this paper, 1599 georeferenced herbarium records were analyzed using DIVA-GIS, and the ecological distribution and richness of the current and future distribution simulation were analyzed using the MaxEnt model. The results show that they are from 32 provinces in China. Among these provinces, Sichuan, Gansu, and Yunnan have the largest number of herbariums. According to the MaxEnt model simulation, it is found that the precipitation in the warmest season, annual precipitation, and the driest monthly precipitation are the foremost bioclimatic variables that control the distribution of eight selected Angelica plants (A. biserrata, A. gigas, A. laxifoliata, A. likiangensis, A. longicaudata, A. omeiensis, A. polymorpha, and A. valida). It can be seen from the potential distribution map that the suitable growth areas of A. polymorpha and A. valida have increased, while the suitable growth areas of the six species of Angelica have decreased in varying degrees, 18.24%, 20.01%, 9.91%, 53.16%, 10.06%, and 12.64% respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to protect the Angelica plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is closely related to the distribution of plant resources. Cerasus serrulata is an important plant resource in China. The study on the influence of environmental factors on the distribution of suitable areas of C. serrulata is conducive to the protection and development of C. serrulata. In this paper, the distribution information of 238 Chinese Cerasusserrulata plants was processed by DIVA-GIS. The MaxEnt model was used to simulate the current and future distribution, and the ecological distribution and richness of Cerasus were analyzed. The results showed that the Cerasus serrulata was widely distributed in Hebei, Heilongjiang, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hunan, and Guizhou provinces, mainly in the low and middle elevation areas of 10 to 1200 m. Based on this model, the precipitation of the warmest quarter, the precipitation of the driest month, and the mean temperature of the coldest were the most significant bioclimatic variables affecting the distribution of C. serrulata. In the future, climate change may lead to a slight increase of 2.31% in the area of suitable habitat for Cerasus serrulata, while the optimal habitat will decrease from 20.81 to 14.55%. Therefore, conservation measures should be taken to protect these precious resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has an extremely important impact on the geographic distribution of plants. The genus Millettia is an important plant resource in China and is widely used in medicine and ornamental industries. Due to the continuous changes of climate and the development and utilization of plant resources of the genus Millettia, it is of great significance to systematically investigate the geographic distribution of plants of the Millettia and their potential distribution under climate change. DIVA-GIS software was used to analyze 3492 plant specimens of 35 species of genus Millettia in the herbarium, and the ecological geographic distribution and richness of Millettia were analyzed, and the MaxEnt model was used to analyze the current and potential distribution in the future. The results show that the genus Millettia is distributed in 30 provinces in China, among which Yunnan and Guangdong provinces are the most distributed. Our model determines that precipitation in the driest month and annual temperature range are the most important bioclimatic variables. Future climate changes will increase the suitable habitat area of M. congestiflora by 16.75%, but other cliff beans Suitable habitats for vines will decrease significantly: M. cinereal by 47.66%, M. oosperma by 39.16%, M. pulchra by 36.04%, M. oraria by − 29.32%, M. nitida by 22.88%, M. dielsiana by 22.72%, M. sericosema by 19.53%, M. championii by 7.77%, M. pachycarpa by 7.72%, M. speciose by 2.05%, M. reticulata by 1.32%. Therefore, targeted measures should be taken to protect and develop these precious plant resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate is one of the most important elements affecting the distribution of species, and it is expected that the distribution of species will be widely influenced by climate change. In plants, edaphic factors also play a special role along with climate in determining the distribution range. The current study aimed to predict the future distribution of the Persian manna (Astragalus adscendens), an endemic perennial shrub in Zagros Mountains of Western Iran. For this purpose, two sets of static (i.e. edaphic and physiographic) and dynamic (i.e. climatic) data and an ensemble approach were used to develop two edaphic-physiographic and climatic models. Current and future suitability maps are representative of the climatic and the edaphic-physiographic niches of A. Adscendens that were obtained based on climatic suitable areas filtered by edaphic-physiographic model. The filtered map has less suitable habitats compared to the climatic model. Three dynamic variables (mean temperature of wettest quarter, temperature seasonality, temperature annual range) and two static variables (altitude and volumetric fraction of coarse fragments) were identified as the most important factors in determining the habitat of A. Adscendens. The importance of altitude was greater than latitude in maintaining or losing suitable habitats under different climate change scenarios, suggesting that the species will not have range expansion or northward shift due to no significant shift in latitude and longitude. Results revealed a sharp decline in the suitable habitats in such that 67% and 91% of the current habitat may be lost by the year 2050 and 2070, respectively. Area reduction was more extreme in future scenarios with the higher level of CO2 emission. Range contraction of A. Adscendens will increases the risk of extinction. This study provides insights into the response of mountain plants, especially range restricted species, to climate change, revealing major dimensions of plant niche. Therefore, developing habitat management and conservation plans to preserve the predicted habitats of such species are required to preserve the predicted sustainable habitats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to climate change, plant populations experience environmental conditions to which they are not adapted. Our understanding of the next century's vegetation geography depends on the distance, direction, and rate at which plant distributions shift in response to a changing climate. In this study we test the sensitivity of tree range shifts (measured as the difference between seedling and mature tree ranges in climate space) to wildfire occurrence, using 74,069 Forest Inventory Analysis plots across nine states in the western United States. Wildfire significantly increased the seedling-only range displacement for 2 of the 8 tree species in which seedling-only plots were displaced from tree-plus-seedling plots in the same direction with and without recent fire. The direction of climatic displacement was consistent with that expected for warmer and drier conditions. The greater seedling-only range displacement observed across burned plots suggests that fire can accelerate climate-related range shifts and that fire and fire management will play a role in the rate of vegetation redistribution in response to climate change. Tree species that are expanding their distribution in response to climate change could be hindered or facilitated by disturbances. Here the authors analyse forest inventory data from the western US to test the hypothesis that wildfire can facilitate climate-induced range shifts in trees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is essential to predict areas of losses or exchanges of ecosystem services to adapt communities to the impacts caused by climate change. Particularly for provisioning ecosystem services provided by economically important plant species, understanding the association between climate change impacts and deforestation of native vegetation increases the accuracy of those predictions. Thus, we aim to (i) map the richness of provisioning ecosystem services from economically important native plants; (ii) use forecasts (present and future) of the distribution of ecosystem services to assess areas of changes in the number and type of provisioning ecosystems services. We evaluated provisioning ecosystem services from 110 Cerrado native species of economic importance for the local population. We determined the potential distribution of these plants using ecological niche modeling techniques, which were grouped according to the 21 different services provided. The forecasts for variation in richness and type of service used four future climate change scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 in 2050 and 2070). The service losses detected in our models were associated with variables representing the progress of native vegetation deforestation in the biome due to agricultural expansion. Currently, ecosystem services can be found simultaneously in practically the entire biome. However, changes in the global climate will impact the potential geographic distribution of those plants, causing many areas in the biome to have reduced availability of potential ecosystem services. Moreover, due to the association between exposure to climate change and deforestation of native vegetation, the northern region of the biome will likely have the distribution of ecosystem services severely affected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Present study aims to find out how evergreen tree species planted in urban parks spread to nearby wild areas. We accomplished field investigation at the Duryu Park area, Daegu, where located a transitional zone between the warm-temperate and the cool-temperate zones. From 2018 to 2019, a total of 32 floristic-sociological relevés were made. Distribution patterns of tree species connected into habitat conditions were explored by canonical correspondence analysis (CCA). 10 tree species dispersed spontaneously in the study area were recognized; Nandina domestica, Euonymus fortunei, E. japonicus, Quercus acuta, Q. glauca, Q. phillyraeoides, Elaeagnus pungens, Ligustrum japonicum, Osmanthus heterophyllus, and Ilex cornuta. Most of these trees were the preferentially ornamental plants introduced in the park since 1977 and mainly bird dispersal seeds. Q. glauca and L. japonicum appeared the most predominant dispersion. Their micro-habitats are the much humid and warmer stands of the deciduous broad-leaved forests mainly. We concluded that urban gardening has been also an important agent to recover the native vegetation if introducing potential natural vegetation (PNV). The habitat-based PNV in the Daegu area arose as a critical issue for further understanding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amphibians, especially salamanders, are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their narrow dispersal abilities and strong dependence on water. In this study, we assessed the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of the Algerian ribbed newt (Pleurodeles nebulosus), a salamander species endemic of Algeria and Tunisia. Using the software "Maxent", we predicted current and future distribution of this species based on three representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and five climate models by 2050. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the model performance. Logistic models were converted into binary presence/absence maps using the maximum training sensitivity plus specificity threshold. Current and future maps showed an average AUC value > 0.9, thereby placing these models in the "excellent" category. Precipitation of wettest month and precipitation seasonality were the most important bioclimatic variables explaining the presence of Pleurodeles nebulosus. Current climate model predicted approximately 19,890 km2 as suitable habitats for that species, but only 11% of these habitats are covered by the protected areas. We showed that the potential distribution of the species was likely to be affected by climate change. We found a contraction ranging from 16 to 72% of its habitat depending on climate scenario used. We also found notable gaps in the protection of the species under future climate conditions. To improve the conservation of the Algerian ribbed newt within its distribution range, we suggest that future conservation measures should be focused on areas that currently have no or a low degree of protection, but which have highly suitable habitats in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scotch broom (Cytisus scoparius) is a global invasive species disrupting native species and habitats in several parts of the world. Its natural distribution spans across Europe, but seeds have also been transferred between countries, mixing plants of different genetic origins. In Denmark, Scotch broom consists of two gene pools: one is found in relatively small populations and is considered native; the other one is presumably introduced and is spreading as a noxious weed. To assess climate thresholds controlling the geographic ranges of the two gene pools, we evaluated seasonal changes in freezing tolerance (electrolyte leakage) and underlying variations in carbohydrate metabolism (HPLC) and water status of genetically different source populations representing the two gene pools. The data reveal that the introduced type is less freezing tolerant than the native type with differences being greatest in early autumn and when plants are most cold hardy, lending support to the hypothesis that insufficient freezing tolerance currently limits range expansion of the introduced Danish Scotch broom. In both gene pools, parallel increases in freezing tolerance and concentrations of sucrose and raffinose and decreasing levels of starch indicate the mobilization of soluble sugars from storage carbohydrates to achieve maximum freezing tolerance. However, genotypic differences in freezing tolerance are not explained by differences in carbohydrate metabolism, but may be related to different water contents. The observed low temperature limit for the introduced C. scoparius could provide valuable information for building process-based species distribution models predicting its geographic distribution and range shift following climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anairetes alpinus is currently categorized as an endangered species due to range fragmentation and habitat loss across its geographic distribution. Its range is only partially known, and potential effects of future climate change on its distribution have yet to be assessed. Using ecological niche models and future climates information, we assessed the geographic and environmental potential distribution of A. alpinus for the years 2050 and 2070, analyzing effects of habitat loss and the importance of existing protected areas (PAs) across the species' range. Our ecological niche models predicted a distributional range of ~ 59,000 to ~ 64,400 km2 for the species, extending from northern Peru to northern Bolivia. However, habitat loss led to an important reduction (> 57%) in the current potential suitable areas. On average, the climate change reduced the potential distributional areas by ~ 49% and ~ 61% for 2050 and 2070, respectively. Synergistic effects of climate change and habitat loss are predicted to pose an even greater risk, leading to a net reduction in future potential distributions of over 75%. We also observed a shift of ~ 230 m increase in elevation between the range under present conditions and scenarios for 2050 and 2070. Although PAs were more suitable climatically than surrounding areas, for future scenarios, we observed an important reduction (on average over 25%) of proportion of PAs within the estimated distributional areas, as well as a significant (P < 0.05) reduction in mean habitat suitability values within PAs. Our novel results offer a guide for future integrative studies focused on defining conservation units and ecological corridors across the distribution of many Andean species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Artificial light at night (ALAN) represents a significant threat to biodiversity. Given that protected areas (PAs) are in relative darkness compared to the surrounding sites, they could be considered an effective tool towards eliminating the impacts of ALAN. However, the extent to which climate change-induced shifts would drive species out of PAs and thus, alter their exposure to ALAN remains an open question. Objectives: We assessed the extent and protection coverage of dark areas across the current and future distributions of 39 raptor species of European conservation interest. Methods: We initially developed a set of distribution models using current and projected climatic variables. Next, we used a satellite dataset of nighttime lights composite to determine the spread of ALAN within the raptors' ranges. Finally, we applied three indices of proportional changes in the expansion of suitable habitats and dark areas to quantify patterns in ALAN within the current and future raptors' ranges across Europe. Results: Our analyses revealed that potential future distribution shifts of raptors will lead to changes in the exposure of species to ALAN, with these patterns being rather unfavourable for most of them. Still, PAs in Europe were found to offer a relative high proportion of dark areas which overlap with the current and future raptors range. Conclusions: Our findings provided some first insights into the spatial conflict between species ranges and ALAN, considering potential distribution shifts driven by climate change. The proposed methodology offers the means to identify potential dark refugia towards prioritizing conservation actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Most future predictions of forest diversity and composition assume species will shift instantaneously. However, evidence suggests there will be considerable inertia between climate change and shifts in plant species distributions, for example due to resident communities resisting changes, the redistribution of resident species' abundances, and dispersal limitation of species attempting to track preferred climates. Objectives: To test how inertia in community responses to climate change may affect future primary productivity, and the capacity for communities to respond through local redistribution of abundances. Methods: We assessed relationships between community functional trait distributions, climate and environment with a remote-sensed measure of gross primary productivity (GPP) across 1032 woody plant communities and projected these spatially under current and future climates. Using a simulation approach, we also tested the capacity for communities to achieve future trait distributions by shifting the relative abundances of resident species. Results: We found that climate change is likely to reduce GPP in southeast Queensland, and, contrary to expectations, there is little evidence to suggest distributional inertia will contribute substantially to this loss. We show that sites with high existing functional diversity are well-placed to achieve predicted future trait compositions in the absence of long-distance dispersal through redistribution of resident species abundances. Conclusions: Our results show that sites with high existing functional diversity are well placed to achieve predicted future trait compositions in the absence of long-distance dispersal through abundance redistribution of resident species, but it is unlikely this will mitigate strong climate change-driven losses of productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Climate change will either improve, reduce, or shift its appropriate climatic habitat of a particular species, which could result in shifts from its geographical range. Predicting the potential distribution through MaxEnt modeling has been developed as an appropriate tool for assessing habitat distribution and resource conservation to protect bamboo species. Methods: Our objective is to model the current and future distribution of Oxytenanthera abyssinica (A. Richard) based on three representative concentration pathways (RCP) (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) for 2050s and 2070s using a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) in Northern Ethiopia. For modeling procedure, 77 occurrence records and 11 variables were retained to simulate the current and future distributions of Oxytenanthera abyssinica in Northern Ethiopia. To evaluate the performance of the model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used. Results: All of the AUCs (area under curves) were greater than 0.900, thereby placing these models in the "excellent" category. The jackknife test also showed that precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19) and precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18) contributed 66.8% and 54.7% to the model. From the area of current distribution, 1367.51 km2 (2.52%), 7226.28 km2 (13.29%), and 5377.26 km2 (9.89%) of the study area were recognized as high, good, and moderate potential habitats of Oxytenanthera abyssinica in Northern Ethiopia, and the high potential area was mainly concentrated in Tanqua Abergele (0.70%), Kola Temben (0.65%), Tselemti (0.60%), and Tsegede (0.31%). Kafta Humera was also the largest good potential area, which accounts for 2.75%. Compared to the current distribution, the total area of the high potential regions and good potential regions for Oxytenanthera abyssinica under the three RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) would increase in the 2050s and 2070s. However, the total area of the least potential regions under the three RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) in 2050s and 2070s would decrease. Conclusion: This study can provide vital information for the protection, management, and sustainable use of Oxytenanthera abyssinica, the resource to address the global climate challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change poses a new challenge for species and can even push some species toward an extinction vortex. The most affected organisms are those with narrow tolerance to the climatic factors but many large mammals such as ungulates with a wider ecological niche are also being affected indirectly. Our research mainly used wild sheep in central Iran as a model species to explore how the suitable habitats will change under different climatic scenarios and to determine if current borders of protected areas will adequately protect habitat requirements. To create habitat models we used animal-vehicle collision points as an input for species presence data. We ran habitat models using MaxEnt modeling approach under different climatic scenarios of the past, present and future (under the climatic scenarios for minimum (RCP2.6) and maximum (RCP8.5) CO2 concentration trajectories). We tried to estimate the overlap and the width of the ecological niche using relevant metrics. In order to analyze the effectiveness of the protected areas, suitable maps were concerted to binary maps using True Skill Statistic (TSS) threshold and measured the similarity of the binary maps for each scenario using Kappa index. In order to assess the competence of the present protected areas boundary in covering the distribution of species, two different scenarios were employed, which are ensemble scenario 1: an ensemble of the binary maps of the species distribution in Mid-Holocene, present, and RCP2.6; and ensemble scenario 2: an ensemble of binary suitability maps in Mid-Holocene, present, and RCP8.5. Then, the borders of modeled habitats with the boundaries of 23 existing protected areas in two central provinces in Iran were compared. The predicted species distribution under scenario 1 (RCP2.6) was mostly similar to its current distribution (Kappa = 0.53) while the output model under scenario 2 (RCP8.5) indicated a decline in the species distribution range. Under the first ensemble scenario, current borders of the protected areas in Hamedan province showed better efficiency to cover the model species distribution range. Analyzing MaxEnt spatial models under the second climatic scenario suggested that protected areas in both Markazi and Hamedan provinces will not cover "high suitability" areas in the future. Modeling the efficiency of the current protected areas under predicted future climatic scenarios can help the related authorities to plan conservation activities more efficiently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What role do people think distributional aspects should play in the design of climate policy? The literature assessing climate policies has shown that assumptions regarding peoples' distributional preferences for climate change policy impacts are central for policy assessment, but empirical evidence for such preferences is lacking. We design a discrete choice experiment that varies how climate policies affect the income of future generations living in three geographical regions, with distinctly different current and predicted future income levels. The experiment is implemented on a sample of the Danish population and preferences are modelled in a latent class model. Our results show that a small majority of the sample (60%) hold preferences consistent with inequity aversion with respect to future income effects of climate policies across regions. For the same group, we find that preferences for co-benefits for current generations reflect a form of altruism, but not inequity aversion. In both cases, the altruistic aspects are moderated by an element of preferences for positive outcomes in own region too. The remaining classes display preferences with a varying focus on impacts in their own region or simply no support for further climate policy. Our results provide some support for the inclusion of social preferences regarding distributional effects of climate change policies in policy assessments, and hence for the significant impact on policy, this inclusion will have. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is altering species distributions worldwide. Particularly, global warming is driving range contractions and expansions of tropical species, such as corals. The use of climatic projections, via species distribution models to predict species distributional shifts, can identify threaten species and help to set priority areas of conservation. In this study, we assessed if distributional shifts of 45 Atlantic reef-forming corals (scleractinian), and the main environmental variables driving their distributions, correlated with their phylogeny and/or their functional traits; i.e. whether expected contractions and expansions affected specific clades, or specific coral traits. We also estimated the potential loss and/or gain of species richness, phylogenetic diversity (PD) and phylogenetic species variability (PSV), as well as the phylogenetic structure of Atlantic reef communities ('clustering', 'overdispersion' or 'randomness'), under a future climate scenario (A2-IPCC-2100). The potential loss of Atlantic corals in the future will be randomly distributed across their phylogeny, i.e. potential extinctions will not only affect one section of the phylogeny, therefore alleviating an inordinate loss of evolutionary history. Nearly all current and future communities presented a 'random' phylogenetic structure. No correlation was found between distributional shifts and coral traits. Environmental variables did not show a significant correlation with the phylogeny neither with coral traits. Predicted changes in species richness, PD and PSV vary across the Atlantic; certain areas display large evolutionary diversity losses. Species belonging to isolated clades (high evolutionary distinctiveness) contribute to quantitative increases, or decreases, of PD and PSV, becoming crucial species for conservation. These findings highlight the importance of combining SDMs with phylogenetic/functional metrics to develop conservation strategies to assess the future of corals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to assess the impacts of climate change on the distribution of major tree species in the temperate forests of Northern Iran (also known as Hyrcanian forests). We analyzed the current distributions of the eleven major tree species using an ensemble approach involving five different species distribution models (generalized linear model, generalized additive model, generalized boosting model, classification tree analysis, and random forests) and generated the ensemble maps of the current and future distribution of each species. For the future, we used five general circulation models and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Finally, we mapped beta-diversity and changes in alpha-diversity of the tree species under climate change. Our analyses showed that generally, the climatically suitable habitats for most of the species tend to shift and shrink in the future. A shift in major trees boundaries will be expected both along an east-west gradient and along an altitudinal gradient under climate change scenarios. The results demonstrated that climate change is likely to exert a strong influence on beta-diversity and richness of the major tree species in northern forests of Iran. In total, beta-diversity of tree species will be higher in the central and eastern parts compared with the western areas under the climate change scenarios and the mid-elevations of the western Hyrcanian forests will likely experience the lowest beta-diversity through time, meaning that the impacts of climate change on these regions are minimal. The impacts of climate change on the distribution of major tree species in the Hyrcanian forests can be considered very severe and pose a high risk of loss in forest functions and services. Forest managers will encounter several uncertainties in the wood productions, plantation, restoration, and conservation plans due to climate change in the Hyrcanian forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses a major threat to the survival of alpine mammals living in fragmented habitats with poor dispersal abilities. Among these important prey species, pikas are considered especially vulnerable to rising temperatures that would impede their surface activity and dispersal. We investigated how climatic regimes influence the niche of the Royle's pika (Ochotona roylei), and which climatic drivers and change trajectories may threaten the species' future sustenance, thereby prioritizing areas for future conservation of this species across its distribution range. We used Royle's pika presence locations in the MaxEnt framework, along with biologically relevant climatic and topographical variables, to model the present (2010) and the future (2050, 2070) climatic niche under different future scenarios projected by CCSM4 climatic models. Subsequently, we estimated the climatic niche loss across the elevation gradient, longitudinal gradient, and both inside and outside protected areas for all countries within the species' range. Niche suitability of the Royle's pika was substantially determined by precipitation of the coldest quarter (~snow cover) and wettest quarter (~monsoon rainfall). As these parameters are known to be vulnerable to global climatic change, our projection revealed significant loss (102 km2/year) in the species niche availability across all future scenarios, particularly in non-protected low-elevation regions. By identifying areas where species survival may be threatened, we confirmed that the distribution of Royle's pika, an important prey species, might be reduced by climate change. Our findings can aid in conservation planning strategies for this species and other alpine fauna and contribute to ongoing efforts to monitor change in the Himalaya. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We aimed to assess the potential impact of climate change on the geographic distribution of areas holding suitable climatic conditions for the presence of Lycalopex vetulus , and to discuss the implications of such distribution for the conservation of the species. We employed correlative modeling analyses to infer the geographic distribution of climatically suitable conditions for the species on climatic scenarios for the present and for years 2050 (average for 2041–2060) and 2070 (average for 2061–2080). The data consisted of species occurrences and 5 bioclimatic variables containing interpolated and averaged information on seasonal variation of temperature and precipitation. Models were projected onto climatic scenarios employing three different global circulation models and two representative concentration pathways. For each of these scenarios, we quantified the expected changes in area (km2) holding suitable climatic conditions and how much of that area is expected to be within the current Brazilian system of protected areas. Our results reveal that climate change represents a major threat for the survival of L. vetulus by drastically reducing its habitat availability in a period of time no longer than five decades from now. Experimental physiological and behavioral studies are necessary to assess whether L. vetulus is able to adequately tolerate under climatic conditions different to those under which the species is currently present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biodiversity is continually transformed by a changing climate. Conditions change across the face of the planet at variable pace leading to rearrangements of biological associations. The carbon cycle and the water cycle, arguably the two most important large-scale processes for life on Earth; depend on biodiversity at genetic, species, and ecosystem levels and can yield feedbacks to climate change. India is no less affected through this feedback mechanism of climate change and had shown its cause and effect association in several studies. In this special issue we present 25 papers contributed by ca 90 authors from India and elsewhere those discuss wide-ranging aspects of biodiversity and climate change. These contributions are based on presentations made at the 2nd International Workshop on Biodiversity and Climate Change (BDCC-2018) held on 24–27-February 2018 at the Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, India. The papers are arranged in six sections: Plant (and lichen) Diversity and Climate; Plant Diversity Pattern and Environmental Heterogeneity; Forest Biomass and Carbon; Plant Diversity and Remote Sensing; Species Distribution Modelling; and Animal Diversity, Soil and Biotechnology. Included amongst the contributions are ones using a national database on plant diversity, describing vegetation carbon and biomass sequestration patterns, utilizing remote sensing to assess plant diversity proxies and conservation prioritization, employing species distribution models to analyze climate change scenarios, using acoustics indices for rapid assessment of biodiversity, addressing the soil micro-biome and environmental stress on medicinal plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change enhances invasive species distribution by altering species composition in native ecosystems. Here we assessed harmony in plant invasions of two perennial exotic species of similar origin and naturalised in India, i.e., Chromolaena odorata and Tridax procumbens. Predictions made for the current condition was subsequently projected for the years 2050 and 2100 for both moderate and extreme climate change scenarios. Maximum Entropy (Maxent) was applied to assess their habitat suitability, risk area identification and shifts in range sizes. The distribution of C. odorata could mostly depend on temperature and moisture availability; and invade the biodiversity-rich regions of India viz., the Eastern Ghats, the Western Ghats, the Eastern Himalaya and the north-eastern regions. The prevalence of T. procumbens in central regions of India could demonstrate its greater dependencies on precipitation seasonality and radiation than that on temperature. These discrepancies in climatic dependencies allowed both for a harmonious distribution, i.e., inhabiting in regions not utilised by other. Both are likely to reduce their potential distribution areas in the future climate, where moisture availability is a key factor for their range expansion. The capacity to tolerate a wide range of temperature and solar radiation allowed T. procumbens to manage climate change impacts more efficiently, compared with C. odorata. The present study reveals harmony in their distributions and suggests distinct conservation protocols for each of them to control their invasion risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cold acclimation is a process used by most temperate plants to cope with freezing stress. In this process, the expression of cold-responsive (COR) genes is activated and the genes undergo physiological changes in response to the exposure to low, non-freezing temperatures and other environmental signals. The C-repeat-binding factors (CBFs) have been demonstrated to regulate the expression of many COR genes. Recent studies have elucidated the molecular mechanisms of how plants transmit cold signals from the plasma membrane to the CBFs and the results have indicated that COR genes are also regulated through CBF-independent pathways. Climate change is expected to have a major impact on cold acclimation and freezing tolerance of plants. However, how climate change affects plant cold acclimation at the molecular level remains unclear. This mini-review focuses on recent advances in cold acclimation in Arabidopsis thaliana and discusses how signaling can be potentially impacted by climate change. Understanding how plants acquire cold acclimation is valuable for the improvement of the freezing tolerance in plants and for predicting the effects of climate change on plant distribution and agricultural yield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Repeated climate change during glacial and interglacial periods of the Quaternary led to mass migrations that resulted in disjunct distributions for many species. However, few studies have examined the processes that form disjunct distributions in Northeast Asia (NEA). In this study, we examined the disjunct distribution of Betula davurica Pall. in the Japanese archipelago. This species is a dominant canopy tree found in cool-temperate deciduous broad-leaved forests of continental NEA. We hypothesized that Quaternary climate change caused the present disjunct distribution pattern of this species. To test this hypothesis, we adopted a species distribution model and examined a series of potential habitats in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the mid-Holocene, and the present. We generated models in MaxEnt with B. davurica presence as the response variable and six bioclimatic variables as predictor variables. During the LGM, projected potential habitats were distributed around the Korean Peninsula, East China, and the Japanese archipelago, excluding Hokkaido. In the mid-Holocene, habitats retreated both from East China and western Japan, remained unchanged in the Korean Peninsula and central Honshu mountains, and expanded to northern China, the Russian Far East, as well as northern Japan (Hokkaido). Thus, post-LGM global warming led to an expansion of B. davurica distribution to northern parts of continental NEA, along with a retreat in the Japanese archipelago. This shift in populations formed the present disjunct distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plants adapted to special soil types are ideal for investigating evolutionary processes, including maintenance of intraspecific variation, adaptation, reproductive isolation, ecotypic differentiation, and the tempo and mode of speciation. Common garden and reciprocal transplant approaches show that both local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity contribute to edaphic (soil-related) specialization. Edaphic specialists evolve rapidly and repeatedly in some lineages, offering opportunities to investigate parallel evolution, a process less commonly documented in plants than in animals. Adaptations to soil features are often under the control of major genes and they frequently have direct or indirect effects on genes that contribute to reproductive isolation. Both reduced competitiveness and greater susceptibility to herbivory have been documented among some edaphic specialists when grown in 'normal' soils, suggesting that a high physiological cost of tolerance may result in strong divergent selection across soil boundaries. Interactions with microbes, herbivores, and pollinators influence soil specialization either by directly enhancing tolerance to extremes in soil conditions or by reducing gene flow between divergent populations. Climate change may further restrict the distribution of edaphic specialists due to increased competition from other taxa or, expand their ranges, if preadaptations to drought or other abiotic stressors render them more competitive under a novel climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mountains are an excellent system for evaluating ecological and biogeographical patterns. The obvious variations of the environmental factors along the altitude create different zones with adapted plant assemblages. However, few studies make use of plant functional type (PFT) for describing the variation of vegetation along altitudinal gradients. A PFT is a group of taxa with similar traits which respond similarly to the environmental gradients. In this study, we used PFTs as indicators describing five vegetation zones in the western Alborz Mt, Iran from 2000 - 4500 m. The plant trait data presented here covers six plant traits including growth form, stemleaf ratio, spinescence, hairiness, leaf consistency and plant height of 297 species. We considered altitude and soil factors to test the importance of environmental variables. We applied a multivariate analysis of three table ordination, i.e. environmental, species, and traits data to identify the PFTs. We further applied fourth-corner statistic to quantify trait-environment relationships. A constrained hierarchical clustering was used to detect five altitudinal zones and two zones of low and high nitrogen concentration. With regard to altitude we discuss the distribution of species, traits and PFTs. Growth form, plant height and stem-leaf ratio were significantly related to altitude and nitrogen. We identified 19 PFTs from which 18 were significantly associated to one or more altitudinal zones. While the lower altitudinal zones contain a variety of PFTs higher altitudes contain less PFTs with the highest altitude containing only one single PFT, tiny rosette plants with soft mesomorphic leaves. We identified grazing and climatic harshness as well as rockiness as the most important drivers of the distribution of plant functional traits and types across the studied gradient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ascophyllum nodosum is a foundation macroalgae of the intertidal zone that distributes across latitude 41.3-69.7°N. We tested the hypothesis that growth of A. nodosum near the northern distribution edge increases with warming. We retrospectively quantified the growth of eight A. nodosum populations at West Greenland and North Norway (from 64°N to 69°N). For seven populations, we measured growth rates since 1997-2002 and for one of them we extended the time series back to 1956 using published estimates. Individuals at northern populations elongated between 2.0 and 9.1 cm year and this variability correlated with temperature and annual ice-free days. A spatial comparison of A. nodosum growth across the species distribution range showed that Northern (and coldest) populations grew at the slowest rates. Our results demonstrate that arctic climate change enhances the growth of A. nodosum populations and suggest that their productivity may increase in response to projected global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The population dynamics and distribution limits of plant species are predicted to change as the climate changes. However, it remains unclear to what extent climate variables affect population dynamics, which vital rates are most sensitive to climate change, and whether the same vital rates drive population dynamics in different populations. In this study, we used long-term demographic data from two populations of the terrestrial orchid Himantoglossum hircinum growing at the northern edge of their geographic range to quantify the influence of climate change on demographic vital rates. Integral projection models were constructed to study how climate conditions between 1991 and 2006 affected population dynamics and to assess how projected future climate change will affect the long-term viability of this species. Based on the parameterised vital rate functions and the observed climatic conditions, one of the studied populations had an average population growth rate above 1 ( λ = 1.04), while the other was declining at ca. 3 % year ( λ = 0.97). Variation in temperature and precipitation mainly affected population growth through their effect on survival and fecundity. Based on UK Climate Projection 2009 estimates of future climate conditions for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, population growth rates are expected to increase in one of the studied populations. Overall, our results indicate that the observed changes in climatic conditions appeared to be beneficial to the long-term survival of the species in the UK and suggest that they may have been the driving force behind the current range expansion of H. hircinum in England. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The degree to which tree species will shift in response to climate change is uncertain yet critical to understand for assessing ecosystem vulnerability. We analyze results from recent studies that model potential tree species habitat across the eastern United States during the coming century. Our goals were to quantify and spatially analyze habitat projections and their congruence under multiple climate scenarios and to assess the implications of habitat change for forest vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in and around protected areas. We assessed habitat projections of species habitat extent and forest composition for 35 tree species under climate change from 2000 to 2100 within National Park Service management units in the Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperative (ALCC), spanning an approximately 1,500 km latitudinal gradient. Our results show that forest composition and species ranges could change substantially under all greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and that model correspondence was stronger for projections of habitat declines than increases. Model correspondence generally increased at finer spatial scales, but varied by tree species and focal area. In the ALCC, forest composition was projected to change the most in protected area centered ecosystems (PACEs). Northeastern PACEs were projected to be suitable for tree species currently in southeastern PACEs, suggesting that intermediate suitable habitat regions could promote tree species persistence and mitigate the impacts of climate change on eastern forests. These results suggest that climate-specific management of eastern U.S. forest ecosystems will be critical but challenging, requiring integrated assessment and management of PACEs and protected areas as well as higher-resolution monitoring and modeling to inform spatially explicit management decisions within eastern U.S. parks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potential geographic distribution of Fagus longipetiolata and its climatic controls are studied, based on the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and actual geographic distribution data of F. longipetiolata, together with the climatic factors (annual precipitation, annual average daily minimum temperature, annual average daily maximum temperature, and annual solar radiation) reflecting the effects of solar radiation, heat and water resources on plant growth, as well as annual temperature range reflecting seasonal change. The results indicate that the MaxEnt model is suitable for simulating the geographic distribution of F. longipetiolata. The importance of the five factors and their thresholds of climatic adaptability are ranged as annual precipitation ( P > 770 mm) > annual average daily minimum temperature (7 °C < T < 20 °C) > annual temperature range (DTY < 23 °C) > annual average daily maximum temperature (16 °C < T) > annual solar radiation (1.10 × 10 W/m < Radi < 1.42 × 10 W/m). The general distribution area is controlled by precipitation. Specifically, the western distribution boundary of F. longipetiolata (in Gansu, Sichuan and Yunnan provinces) relies on both temperature and solar radiation, and its northern boundary in China (in Shaanxi, Hubei and Hunan provinces) depends on the seasonal change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plants that share the same habitat often exhibit similar biological traits. As climatic conditions change with increasing elevation, biological traits are expected to vary among plant species with temperate endemic, alpine endemic, or widespread elevational distributions. On a northeast Tibetan flora including temperate (1,850-2,800 m a.s.l.), subalpine (2,800-3,400 m a.s.l.), and alpine (3,400-4,150 m a.s.l.) vegetations, we analyzed patterns of change for ten traits of 326 annual and perennial herbaceous species using both univariate and multivariate analyses. The traits selected for this study fit in different groups, i.e., traits related to light competition, photosynthesis, reproduction, defense, and dispersal. We found that plant shape (plant height and leaf distribution along stem) and leaf traits (specific leaf area and leaf area) were significant predictors of plants' elevational distributions, suggesting an important role for a trade-off between light competition and biomass costs in support structures, and between photosynthetic efficiency and leaf defense. Moreover, species with a broad distribution had significantly higher seed germination and shorter first germination time, as compared to species with narrow distributions, which indicates that rapid regeneration may be crucial for widespread species. However, dispersal-related traits may not be the main factor in shaping plants' elevational distribution because no significant difference was detected in wind- and animal-dispersal ability. In addition, annual species potentially may have different strategies and adaptive mechanisms because we detected no differences in trait related to the elevational distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant species are shifting their ranges in response to global climate change, thus intensifying the need to predict such changes accurately. As the environmental requirements controlling plant distribution act differently at each developmental stage, there is a need to acquire a demographic-specific understanding of the factors which determine these distributions. Here we investigated the germination niche of two common savanna species Acacia nigrescens and Colophospermum mopane, with the aims to disentangle the direct and indirect effects of temperature on seed germination and establishment and to explore the impact of higher temperatures on the establishment success of savanna trees. Under laboratory conditions, we used thermal gradient plates to determine the thermal germination niche of both species, and a water stress experiment was conducted on C. mopane to account for water-temperature interactions. Using these data we parameterised a soil-moisture model to determine germination and establishment success under field conditions at current and future temperatures (+4 °C). Based on this model, higher future temperatures will not limit germination directly, but they will reduce the number of germination events by reducing the time window of suitable available soil water. Conversely, warmer conditions will accelerate the rate of radicle extension and increase the frequency of seedling establishment events. An additional advantage of higher temperatures is that fewer seeds will germinate, resulting in slower seed bank depletion when successful seedling establishment events do occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species distribution models (SDMs) were built with US Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) publicly available plot coordinates, which are altered for plot security purposes, and compared with SDMs built with true plot coordinates. Six species endemic to the western US, including four junipers ( Juniperus deppeana var. deppeana, J. monosperma, J. occidentalis, J. osteosperma) and two piñons ( Pinus edulis, P. monophylla), were analyzed. The presence-absence models based on current climatic variables were generated over a series of species-specific modeling extents using Random Forests and applied to forecast climatic conditions. The distributions of predictor variables sampled with public coordinates were compared to those sampled with true coordinates using t tests with a Bonferroni adjustment for multiple comparisons. Public- and true-based models were compared using metrics of classification accuracy. The modeled current and forecast distributions were compared in terms of their overall areal agreement and their geographic mean centroids. Comparison of the underlying distributions of predictor variables sampled with true versus public coordinates did not indicate a significant difference for any species at any extent. Both the public- and true-based models had comparable classification accuracies across extent for each species, with the exception of one species, J. occidentalis. True-based models produced geographic distributions with smaller areas under current and future scenarios. The greatest areal difference occurred in the species with the lowest modeled accuracies ( J. occidentalis), and had a forecast distribution which diverged severely. The other species had forecast distributions with similar magnitudes of modeled distribution shifts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate has played a crucial role in assigning a different kind of topography to Rajasthan and Gujarat since the Cenozoic time. Evidently, three genera, namely, Dipterocarpus Gaert. f., Hopea Roxb. and Shorea Roxb. of the Dipterocarpaceae are described from the Neogene sediments of western India (Rajasthan and Gujarat). These taxa are marked by their complete absence in the region today. The presence of Dipterocarpaceae in western India has been noticed from the Early Eocene up to the Plio-Pleistocene in deep time. The family is usually a dominant component of the humid tropical and subtropical flora of the Indo-Malayan region and its discovery, along with earlier described fossils from western India indicates existence of ancient tropical rain forests in western India. A change in the climate affected warm and humid conditions occurring there during the Cenozoic resulting in arid to semi-arid climate at present which is responsible for the ultimate extinction of Dipterocarpaceae in the region. In addition, the palaeobiogeography of Dipterocarpaceae is reviewed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Climate warming has led to changes in the composition, density and distribution of Arctic vegetation in recent decades. These changes cause multiple opposing feedbacks between the biosphere and atmosphere, the relative magnitudes of which will have globally significant consequences but are unknown at a pan-Arctic scale. The precise nature of Arctic vegetation change under future warming will strongly influence climate feedbacks, yet Earth system modelling studies have so far assumed arbitrary increases in shrubs (for example, +20%; refs , ), highlighting the need for predictions of future vegetation distribution shifts. Here we show, using climate scenarios for the 2050s and models that utilize statistical associations between vegetation and climate, the potential for extremely widespread redistribution of vegetation across the Arctic. We predict that at least half of vegetated areas will shift to a different physiognomic class, and woody cover will increase by as much as 52%. By incorporating observed relationships between vegetation and albedo, evapotranspiration and biomass, we show that vegetation distribution shifts will result in an overall positive feedback to climate that is likely to cause greater warming than has previously been predicted. Such extensive changes to Arctic vegetation will have implications for climate, wildlife and ecosystem services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Elm ( Ulmus pumila), widely distributed in the north temperate zone, contributes to a special savanna-like woodland in typical grassland region in the northeastern China. This woodland performs a variety of ecological functions and environmental significance, such as decreasing soil erosion, stabilizing sand dunes, preserving species diversity. However, in the last approximate 30 years, the species composition, productivity and distribution area of elm woodland has decreased severely. A series of studies have been carried out to find out whether the climate changes or human disturbances caused the degradation of elm woodland and how these factors affected elm woodland. In this study, undisturbed, plowing and grazing elm woodland were investigated in 1983 and 2011 by using Point-Centered Quarter method. The relationship between vegetation changes and environmental factors was analyzed by Bray-Curtis ordination. The results show that in 2011, species diversity and understory productivity of undisturbed elm woodland decrease slightly compared to those of undisturbed elm woodland in 1983. However, nearly 60% of the species is lost in the plowing and grazing elm woodland relative to the species undisturbed elm woodland in 1983. Interestingly, plowing stimulates the growth of elm and certain understory species through furrowing soil and accelerating soil nutrient turnover rate. Grazing disturbance not only leads to species loss and productivity decrease, but also induces changes in elm growth (small, short and twisted). The mean age of the elm was 29 ± 2 yr in undisturbed and plowing elm woodland, while only 15 yr in the grazing elm woodland. The results of Bray-Curtis ordination analysis show that all sample stands clustered to three groups: Group I including the undisturbed sample stands of 83UE (undisturbed elm woodland in 1983) and 11UE (undisturbed elm woodland in 2011); Group II including sample stands of PE (elm woodland disturbed by plowing); Group III including samples stands of GE (elm woodland disturbed by grazing). The results indicate that the long time disturbance of the plowing and grazing have converted elm woodland to different community types. Climate change is not the primary reason causing the degradation of elm woodland, but plowing and grazing disturbance. Both plowing and grazing decrease the vegetation composition and species diversity. Grazing further decreases vegetation productivity and inhibits the growth of elm tree. Therefore, we suggest that reasonable plowing and exclusive grazing would be favorable for future regeneration of degraded elm woodland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mangrove distribution in South Africa is fragmented and restricted to small forest patches occupying only 16 % of the estuaries within the current range. In this study we used species distribution models to test (1) whether the absence of mangrove forest and its species ( Avicennia marina, Bruguiera gymnorrhiza and Rhizophora mucronata) within their current range is driven by climate or by climate combined with human or geomorphic perturbation and (2) how climate change may potentially affect the latitudinal limit of the mangrove forests and its species in South Africa. We used three modelling techniques (generalized linear models, generalized additive models and gradient boosting machines) and a set of three climate-based predictive variables (minimum air temperature of the coldest month, waterbalance and growing-degree days) combined separately with an index of human or geomorphic perturbation. Climate variables for the future projections were derived from two general circulation models driven by two socio-economic scenarios (A2a and B2a). Within the range of the mangrove forest, the fragmented distribution of the mangroves in South Africa was not explained by our set of climate variables alone. The index of human perturbations slightly improved the predictions but the index of geomorphic perturbation did not. Climate change will create climatically suitable sites for the mangrove forest and the two species A. marina and B. gymnorrhiza beyond their current limits, but model outcomes did not agree on the future potential distribution of R. mucronata. We were able to successfully predict range limits and to detect future climatically suitable sites beyond the current limits. Factors controlling mangrove distribution within its range are still to be identified although absences were partly explained by human perturbations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plants cultivated in gardens, parks and streetscapes are becoming increasingly important to peoples' experience of biological life, and have been the recent focus of research in ecology, invasion biology, human geography and sociology. However patterns of distribution have not previously been explored at a global scale. In this study, global patterns in the distribution of cultivated floras were explored to determine the significance of biophysical and social factors driving species distributions. The taxonomic similarity of 72 published species lists was examined, covering a wide geographic and climatic range and a variety of land uses. Cultivated floras across urban and rural settlements were found to be very different and unsurprisingly to be strongly filtered by temperature. However we found that human behaviour may overcome other physical drivers of plant distribution such as rainfall in some instances. Social factors were also found to be important. Having a different dominant language (a proxy for cultural background) and difference in GDP per person (a proxy for household income) were also related to the dissimilarity of cultivated floras. Differences in both the social and physical environment are related to floristic differences between cities. However, we recognise that other factors identified in the literature but unsuited to meta-analysis, may also influence the composition of cultivated landscapes. These include changes in policy relating to the provision of street and park vegetation, the availability of plants from nurseries and the preferences of influential gardeners and landscape designers. The significance of the relationship between temperature and species composition suggests that cultivated floras are likely to change in response to climate change. The high level of dissimilarity observed between settlements suggests that patterns of potential naturalisation of cultivated plants are likely to be more complex than currently accepted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid range expansions are becoming more prevalent, especially as climate continues to change. The escape of ornamental plants within their native range represents a significant, but often overlooked component of this process. Few studies have focused on the role of ornamental plants in range expansions using molecular markers to identify the possibility of mixed native and cultivar populations. The purpose of the present study was to determine the genetic variation of a native woody plant with ornamental conspecifics at the edge of its distribution. We selected Ilex aquifolium L. (English holly) which grows naturally in Denmark but is spreading eastward in Scandinavia, possibly due to a combination of climate change and introduction of more frost-tolerant cultivars. We sampled 187 individuals from older and recently established populations, and cultivated I. aquifolium throughout Denmark, and compared them using nuclear SSR and AFLP. The overall results showed no structure or clustering of plants from the historical or the expanding range, or of wild or cultivated plants. The only clusters found were for a group of cultivated hybrid I. aquifolium. The samples represented four genetic groupings, indicating either hybridization between cultivated and wild I. aquifolium or replacement of the latter by cultivars. Thus, ornamental genotypes of I. aquifolium contribute to the northeastern range expansion of the species and eventual invasiveness within its native range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change projections forecast a warming and an associated change in the distribution and intensity of rainfalls. In the case of the Mediterranean area, this will be reflected in more frequent and severe drought periods in the future. Within a long-term (9 years) manipulation experiment, we aimed to study the effect of the soil drought (15-20% decreased soil moisture) and warming conditions (+1°C warming) projected for the next decades onto photosynthetic rates and water relations, and onto the antioxidant and anti-stress defense capacity of Erica multiflora, a common species of the dry Mediterranean coastal scrublands, in two different seasons, spring and summer. Results indicated that none of the applied treatments was severe enough to induce a pronounced negative response of photosynthesis in this species well adapted to harsh Mediterranean conditions, but also highlighted important seasonal differences. Photosynthesis was limited by photoinhibition in spring and by stomatal closure in summer. Isoprenoid emission and the level of enzymatic and non-enzymatic antioxidants were lower in summer than in spring, whereas pigment and total phenolic contents were generally higher in summer. Volatile isoprenoid emissions were largely inhibited by drought and were not stimulated by warming. Drought and warming increased the oxidation state of ascorbate and reduced total glutathione levels in spring, but not in summer. It is concluded that E. multiflora plants can adapt to prolonged drought and warming, at least at the level simulated by our manipulative experiment, through changes in the seasonal physiological and antioxidant response of leaves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface temperatures have risen globally during the last 30 years, especially in alpine areas. It is recognized that these increases are influencing phenology, physiology and distribution of plants. However, few studies have addressed the effects of climate warming at the species range boundary, where plants are expected to be more stressed. We analysed 11-year data sets of inflorescence production of four alpine plants ( Carex foetida, Leucanthemopsis alpina, Senecio incanus, Silene suecica) at the southern boundary of their distribution range in the N-Apennines (N-Italy), in relation to air temperature and snow cover persistence. Inflorescence production of all species fluctuated greatly and was significantly affected by the variation of the mean temperature of June/July. We found significant relationships also between species data series and the snow cover persistence. Moreover, species responded differently to such parameters. One species showed a significant decrease of the reproductive effort, whereas the other three showed a stable trend of inflorescence production. We have shown that some alpine species are favoured by increased temperature and reduced snow cover even at the boundary of their range, where they are thought to be particularly sensitive to warming. However, the aptitude to cope with climate change might be limited by competition against thermophilous species migrating from lower altitude and in some cases by the low altitude of mountain peaks that prevent species upward migration. The individualistic response of species to climate change found here, support the statement that the composition of plant communities might rapidly change in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is driving latitudinal and altitudinal shifts in species distribution worldwide, leading to novel species assemblages. Lags between these biotic responses and contemporary climate changes have been reported for plants and animals. Theoretically, the magnitude of these lags should be greatest in lowland areas, where the velocity of climate change is expected to be much greater than that in highland areas. We compared temperature trends to temperatures reconstructed from plant assemblages (observed in 76,634 surveys) over a 44-year period in France (1965-2008). Here we report that forest plant communities had responded to 0.54?°C of the effective increase of 1.07?°C in highland areas (500-2,600?m above sea level), while they had responded to only 0.02?°C of the 1.11?°C warming trend in lowland areas. There was a larger temperature lag (by 3.1 times) between the climate and plant community composition in lowland forests than in highland forests. The explanation of such disparity lies in the following properties of lowland, as compared to highland, forests: the higher proportion of species with greater ability for local persistence as the climate warms, the reduced opportunity for short-distance escapes, and the greater habitat fragmentation. Although mountains are currently considered to be among the ecosystems most threatened by climate change (owing to mountaintop extinction), the current inertia of plant communities in lowland forests should also be noted, as it could lead to lowland biotic attrition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study aims at evaluating how land-use modifies the link between the observed distribution of species and the climatic variability and at detecting species involved in that modification. The area studied covers the phytogeographical transition between the South-Sudanian sector and the North-Sudanian sector in western Burkina Faso. It lies along an aridity gradient, of which the aridity index (UNESCO-MAB) ranges from 0.363 to 0.533. The data studied were derived from observations performed on 192 woody species in 603 vegetation survey plots inside and outside protected areas. The species turn-over (β diversity) and the mutual information were assessed along the aridity gradient inside protected areas on one hand and outside protected areas on the other. Our study shows that the statistical links between the geographical distributions of species and the aridity gradient differ according to whether the observations are performed inside or outside the protected areas. Anthropogenic disturbances, mainly agricultural in the region of study, result in a decrease in the β diversity and in the average mutual information between the distribution of all the woody species and the climatic gradient. Moreover, the variation in mutual information differs according to the species: it diversely decreases with agricultural land-use for most of them, but increases for some. Thus, land-use leads to species-specific changes in the realised climatic niches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study provides a first country-wide overview of the vertical distribution patterns and the chorology of vascular plant species that occur in the uppermost elevation zones in Iran. The current distribution patterns are discussed with respect to potential warming-induced species losses. Iran's subnival and nival vegetation zones are found at elevations above 3600-3900 m in a highly fragmented distribution across Alborz, Zagros, and NW-Iran. Based on literature research and on field observations, all vascular plant species living in the subnival-nival zone of Iranian mountains were identified (151 species) and classified into three altitudinal groups: Group A comprises species that occur mainly in subnival-nival habitats (51 species). Group B are species being common in subnival-nival areas but are equally present in the alpine zone (56 species). Group C are species that can reach to subnival areas but also grow in alpine, subalpine and sometimes lower altitudes (44 species). The chorological patterns differ among the three groups. The percentage of species being endemic to Iran decreases from group A, to B and C, with 68, 53 and 20%, respectively. A narrow altitudinal distribution at high elevations is clearly related to a small-scaled geographical distribution range. The outstanding rate of high-altitude endemism appears to result mainly from orographic isolation of the country's highly scattered cold areas and by the absence of extensive Pleistocene glaciations. The narrow distribution of most of Iran's cold-adapted mountain flora and the low potential of alternative cold habitats render it highly vulnerable to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the first regional map of vegetation of anywhere on the Antarctic continent based on remote sensing (RS) data. We have used a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for the examination of Landsat ETM data on the Antarctic Peninsula. The results show that 44.6 km (0.086%) of the study area (74,468 km) is classed with a probability of vegetation of over 50%. The NDVI analysis is ground-truthed against vegetation surveys in Ryder Bay on the Antarctic Peninsula, and the results have been corrected for several factors influencing low NDVI readings in this environment. This methodology has been applied to 13 Landsat scenes covering Graham Land in the Northern part of the Antarctic Peninsula to examine the distribution of vegetation in the region. The Antarctic Peninsula region is important, as it has shown rapid warming of over 3°C during the past 50 years, and predictions indicate accelerated future warming. A baseline survey of the amount and distribution of vegetation is required against which to monitor future change. The results give a comprehensive coverage and allow us to present the first remote sensing-based vegetation map in Antarctica. However, initial results point to the need for further investigation of apparent errors resulting from geology on bare ground. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Annual PAR (pollen accumulation rates; grains cm−2 year−1) were studied with modified Tauber traps situated in ten regions, in Poland (Roztocze), the Czech Republic (two regions in Krkonoše, two in Šumava), Switzerland (4 regions in the Alps), and Georgia (Lagodekhi). The time-series are 10–16 years long, all ending in 2007. We calculated correlations between pollen data and climate. Pollen data are PAR summarized per region (4–7 traps selected per region) for each pollen type (9–14 per region) using log-transformed, detrended medians. Climate data are monthly temperature and precipitation measured at nearby stations, and their averages over all possible 2- to 6-month windows falling within the 20-month window ending with August, just prior to the yearly pollen-trap collection. Most PAR/climate relationships were found to differ both among pollen types and among regions, the latter probably due to differences among the study regions in the habitats of plant populations. Results shared by a number of regions can be summarized as follows. Summer warmth was found to enhance the following year’s PAR of Picea, Pinus non- cembra, Larix and Fagus. Cool summers, in contrast, increase the PAR of Abies, Alnus viridis and Gramineae in the following year, while wet summers promote PAR of Quercus and Gramineae. Wetness and warmth in general were found to enhance PAR of Salix. Precipitation was found to be more important for PAR of Alnus glutinosa-type than temperature. Weather did not have an impact on the PAR of Gramineae, and possibly of Cyperaceae in the same year. Care is advised when extrapolating our results to PAR in pollen sequences, because there are large errors associated with PAR from sediments, due to the effects of taphonomy and sedimentation and high uncertainty in dating. In addition, in pollen sequences that have decadal to centennial rather than near-annual resolution, plant-interaction effects may easily out-weigh the weather signal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From 2003 through 2005, tidal marsh plant species diversity and abundance on historically surveyed vegetation transects along the salinity gradient of the San Francisco Estuary were investigated to establish empirical relationships between plant distributions and environmental conditions, and furthermore to examine and predict past and future plant distribution changes. This study suggests that for most species, salinity is the primary control on plant distribution. Thus, ongoing changes in estuarine conditions (increasing sea level and salinity) are resulting in a complex mix of plant distribution changes. On the low marsh, where sediment salinity is similar to that of ambient water, halophytic species are replacing salt-intolerant taxa. However, on marsh plains, where increased tidal flooding is moderating high salinity (concentrated by evaporation), halophytic “high marsh” species are being replaced by salt-intolerant “low marsh” taxa. Thus, future changes in plant distributions will hinge on whether marsh sediment accumulation keeps pace with sea level rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Northern Hemisphere, the surface of south-facing slopes orients toward the sun and thus receives a greater duration and intensity of solar irradiation, resulting in a relatively warmer, drier microclimate and seasonal environmental extremes. This creates potentially detrimental conditions for evergreen plants which must endure the full gamut of conditions. I hypothesize that (1) increased southerly aspect will correlate negatively with evergreen understory plant distributions; (2) derived environmental variables (summer and winter light and heat load) will predict variance in evergreen distributions as well as topographic position (aspect, slope, and elevation) and (3) winter light will best predict evergreen understory plant distributions. In order to test these hypotheses, survey data were collected characterizing 10 evergreen understory herb distributions (presence, abundance, and reproduction) as well as the corresponding topographical information across north- and south-facing slopes in the North Carolina mountains and Georgia piedmont. The best predictive models were selected using AIC, and Bayesian hierarchical generalized linear models were used to estimate the strength of the retained coefficients. As predicted, evergreen understory herbs occurred and reproduced less on south-facing than north-facing slopes, though slope and elevation also had robust predictive power, and both discriminated well between evergreen species. While the landscape variables explained where the plants occurred, winter light and heat load provided the best explanation why they were there. Evergreen plants likely are limited on south-facing slopes by low soil moisture combined with high temperatures in summer and high irradiance combined with lower temperatures in winter. The robust negative response of the understory evergreen herbs to increased winter light also suggested that the winter rather than the summer (or growing season) environment provided the best predictive power for understory evergreen distributions, which has substantive implications for predicting responses to global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]