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Growth and yield (G&Y) of forest plantations can be significantly impacted by maladaptation resulting from climate change, and assisted migration has been proposed to mitigate these impacts by restoring populations to their historic climates. However, genecology models currently used for guiding assisted migration do not account for impacts of climate change on cumulative growth and assume that responses of forest population to climate do not change with age. Using provenance trial data for interior lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta subsp. latifolia Douglas) and white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) in western Canada, we integrated Universal Response Functions, representing the relationship of population performance with their provenance and site climates, into top height curves in a G&Y model (Growth and Yield Projection System, GYPSY) to develop population-specific climate sensitive top height curves for both species. These new models can estimate the impact of climate change on top height of local populations and populations from a range of provenances to help guide assisted migration. Our findings reveal that climate change is expected to have varying effects on forest productivity across the landscape, with some areas projected to experience a slight increase in productivity by the 2050s, while the remainder are projected to face a significant decline in productivity for both species. Adoption of assisted migration, however, with the optimal populations selected was projected to maintain and even improve productivity at the provincial scale. The findings of this study provide a novel approach to incorporating assisted migration approaches into forest management to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Key message: Growth sensitivity to climate varies with soil moisture regime in spruce–fir forests in central British Columbia. Stands growing at their dry edaphic limits displayed especially strong and unique climatic sensitivities. Soil moisture regime is an important influence of productivity, process, and structure in forested ecosystems. In western North America, projected warming trends may result in decreasing available soil moisture; however, the potential effects on forest growth remain unclear. This study aimed to determine the influence of stand-level soil moisture regime on the climatic sensitivity of mature hybrid white spruce (Picea glauca (Moensch) Voss x Picea engelmannii Parry) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt.) forests in central British Columbia, Canada. We collected and analyzed tree-ring data from 51 stands spanning a range of soil moisture regimes. Dendroecological analyses of climate–growth relationships indicated that warm summer temperatures and drought limit growth for both species across all soil moisture regimes; however, responses were strongest on the driest sites. Spruce populations across the gradient of soil moisture regimes displayed unique climate-growth relationships; growth in populations on wetter sites was more correlated with summer climate from the year prior to growth. Radial growth responses to prior summer temperatures strengthened over the past ca. 80 years in both species and across most sites, suggesting that climate–growth relationships are shifting in this region. This study presents evidence of the importance of considering site-level ecological factors such as soil moisture regime when studying forest growth responses to climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under a changing climate, tree improvement programs should revise breeding zones to improve climate change adaptation and program efficiency once information about adaptive capacity of breeding populations and genotype × environment (G × E) interaction becomes available. In this study, we evaluated the adaptation and growth, as well as G × E interactions, shown by white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) open-pollinated (OP) families across two adjacent breeding zones (i.e., the BZ3300 and BZ4300, respectively) in northwestern Ontario using progeny test data, including 80 OP families (40 from each) that were cross-tested between the breeding zones. Results showed that the OP families from the southerly BZ4300 breeding zone averaged higher survival and significantly greater mean tree height growth than the local OP families in the more northern BZ3300 breeding zone at tree age of 14 years, with no notable difference in frost damage. Estimates of type-B genetic correlation from pairwise tests or combined-test analyses were almost all greater than 0.7, suggesting weak G × E interactions. Greater variation among families and higher heritability estimates in tree height were observed for families from the BZ3300 breeding zone or when families from the two breeding zones were combined. The weak G × E interactions, in addition to better survival and growth of the southerly families in the more northern breeding zone, suggested benefits from deploying seed from current seed orchard in the BZ4300 breeding zone to the BZ3300 breeding zone and merging the two breeding zones when starting the second generation breeding to increase tree improvement efficiency and likely higher genetic gain under future climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Growth of trees at their altitudinal and latitudinal range limits is expected to increase as climate warms, but trees often exhibit unexplained spatial and temporal variation in climate-growth responses, particularly in alpine regions. Until this variability is explained, predictions of future tree growth are unlikely to be accurate. We sampled Picea glauca (white spruce) growing at forest and tree line on north and south aspects in two mountain ranges of southwest Yukon to determine how and why ring-width patterns vary between topographic settings, and over time. We used multivariate statistical analysis to characterize variation in ring-width patterns between topographic factors and time periods, and calculated correlations between ring-width indices and climate variables to explain this variation. Ring-width patterns varied more between mountain ranges than elevations or aspects, particularly in recent decades when ring-widths increased in one mountain range but not the other. Growth responses to summer temperature were notably weaker during warmer time periods, but growth was not positively correlated to summer precipitation, suggesting trees may not be suffering from temperature-induced drought stress. Rather, ring-width indices began responding positively to spring snow depth after 1976. We conclude that tree growth is unlikely to increase in synchrony with rising air temperatures across subarctic tree lines in southwest Yukon. Instead, they may decline in areas that are prone to thin snowpacks or rapid spring runoff due to the negative influence warming springs will have on snow depth and, consequently, early growing season soil moisture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shelterbelts have played an important role in prairie agriculture since the late 1800s; however, little is known about how these shelterbelts may be affected by climate change. The objective of this study was to determine if shelterbelt species, which are heavily influenced by human activity, express a common radial-growth signal within and between trees. The study focused on the annual tree-ring growth of the nine most common shelterbelt species of the Canadian Prairies: Salix acutifolia (Acute willow), Caragana arborescens (caragana, or Siberian pea shrub), Picea pungens (Colorado spruce), Fraxinus pennsylvanica (green ash), Populus sp. (hybrid poplar), Acer negundo (Manitoba maple), Pinus sylvestris (Scots pine), Ulmus pumila (Siberian elm) and Picea glauca (white spruce). Tree core samples were collected near Saskatoon, Saskatchewan using traditional dendrochronological methods. The standardized growth of each species was compared with historical homogenized climate data in order to determine the key monthly climate variables impacting each species. Prior to this analysis, little was known about the suitability of six of these nine species for dendrochronological purposes. It was found that all species crossdate at a significant level, and that the three most significantly correlated climate factors are able to account for up to 37 % of the annual variation in tree-ring growth. The findings of this study suggest that all nine species are suitable, to varying degrees, for future dendrochronological research in the Canadian Prairies as well as having implications for shelterbelt systems elsewhere in the world. The top four species based on four ranking criteria (interseries correlation, mean sensitivity, climate explanatory power, and commonality) were white spruce, acute willow, caragana, and Manitoba maple, and initial results suggest that all species have the potential to be investigated in greater depth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most wilderness areas still lack accurate distribution information on tree species. We met this need with a predictive GIS modeling approach, using freely available digital data and computer programs to efficiently obtain high-quality species distribution maps. Here we present a digital map with the predicted distribution of white spruce ( Picea glauca) in Alaska (4 km resolution, accuracy over 90%). Our presented concept represents a role-model for predicting tree species distribution for remote areas world-wide. Although this model intends to be accurate in making predictions rather than to give detailed biological mechanistic explanations, it can also be used as a baseline for further research and testable hypothesis on the importance of the environmental variables used to build a generalizable model. Further, we emphasize that work like presented here is a pre-condition for assessing human impacts and impacts of climate change on species distribution in a quantitative and transparent fashion, allowing for improved sustainable decision-making world-wide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maximum latewood density and δ 13C discrimination of Interior Alaska white spruce were used to reconstruct summer (May through August) temperature at Fairbanks for the period 1800–1996, one of the first high-resolution reconstructions for this region. This combination of latewood density and δ 13C discrimination explains 59.9% of the variance in summer temperature during the period of record 1906–1996. The 200-yr. reconstruction is characterized by 7 decadal-scale regimes. Regime changes are indicated at 1816, 1834, 1879, 1916, 1937, and 1974, are abrupt, and appear to be the result of synoptic scale climate changes. The mean of summer temperature for the period of reconstruction (1800–1996) was 13.49 °C. During the period of instrument record (1903–1996) the mean of summer temperature was 13.31 °C for both the reconstruction and the recorded data. The coldest interval was 1916–1937 (12.62 ° C) and the warmest was 1974–1996 (14.23 °C) for the recorded data. The reconstruction differs from records of northern hemisphere temperatures over this period, especially because of Interior Alaska warm periods reconstructed from 1834 to 1851 (14.24 °C) and from 1862 to 1879 (14.19 °C) and because of the cool period in the early part of the 20th century (1917–1974). We show additional tree ring data that support our reconstruction of these warm periods. Alternate hypotheses involving autogenic effect of tree growth on the site, altered tree sensitivity, or novel combinations of temperature and precipitation were explored and while they cannot be ruled out as contributors to the anomalously warm 19th century reconstruction, they were not supported by available data. White spruce radial growth is highly correlated with reconstructed summer temperature, and temperature appears to be a reliable index of carbon uptake in this system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]