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In the northern forelands of the Alps, farmers report an increase of Jacobaea aquatica in production grasslands. Due to its toxicity, the species affects grassland productivity and calls for costly control measures. We are investigating the extent to which management practices or climatic factors are responsible for the increase of the species and how the situation will change due to climate change. We tested for effects of management intensity, fertilization, agri-environmental measures, and soil disturbance, and modeled the occurrence of the species under rcp4.5 and rcp8.5 scenarios. The main determinants of the occurrence of the species are soil type and summer rainfall. A high risk is associated with wet soils and > 400 mm of rain between June and August; an influence of the management-related factors could not be detected. Under the climate-change scenarios, the overall distribution decreases and shifts to the wetter alpine regions. Thus, the current increase is rather a shift in the occurrence of the species due to the altered precipitation situation. Under future climatic conditions, the species will decline and retreat to higher regions in the Alps. This will decrease the risk of forage contamination for production grassland in the lowlands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, we analyse the role of climatic constraints in shaping the distribution of alien plant species along the elevation gradient in the European Alps. Alien species occurrence was recorded in 278 plots located beside rivers, from 100 to 2,100 m a.s.l. Climate variables were calculated from the data recorded by 145 meteorological stations and interpolated by a multiple regression approach. Both richness and occurrence of aliens were modelled. In particular, relationships between the occurrence of alien plants and (1) elevation or (2) the climatic variables, were tested by applying generalised linear models and generalised linear mixed models; the model parameters obtained were used to estimate upper elevation limits of alien occurrence and their related climate values. Sixty-eight alien species were encountered, the majority (71%) invasive in Italy and worldwide. A steep decrease in alien species richness with elevation was found, with the probability of alien species occurrence decreasing by half for each 100 m increase in elevation. Minimal adequate models based on (1) non-transformed climatic variables and (2) derived PCA values, confirmed that occurrence of alien plant species along the elevation gradient was positively related to the minimum temperature, the mean temperature and the heat sum for the spring season, rather than to the incidence of absolute minimum temperature and frost days, as usually assumed. Although further experimental analyses are needed, these results support the hypothesis that, referring to climate factors, elevation limits along rivers are mainly established by low spring temperatures which operate at the level of population viability rather than plant survival. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The composition of plant species in grassland communities is determined in part by negative and positive interactions among neighbouring plants; such interactions could be dispersal or – in the case of legumes – symbiotic N2 fixation or resource acquisition. We hypothesised that small scale distribution of plant species may be in part affected by (i) the plant's narrow dispersal in the close neighbourhood, (ii) by the N input into the soil through symbiotic N2 fixation by legumes, and (iii) by small scale heterogeneity of N availability in the soil. To address these hypotheses, in four species-rich semi-natural and natural grasslands along an altitudinal gradient from 900 to 2100 m a.s.l., the association of species that grew within a radius of 5 cm of selected plant species (central plant, CP) was studied. The distribution of the plant species within the plant community was not random and the species composition that grew within a radius of 5 cm of a CP varied with altitude. The strength of the association between a CP and its neighbouring species decreased with increasing altitude. The 5 cm radius was most dominated by individuals of the same species as the CP, suggesting that narrow dispersal (either through seeds or through vegetative propagates) may be most important for the species composition within the sward. δ15N values of non leguminous species growing near legumes compared to non leguminous species that grew far from legumes indicate that N from symbiotic N2 fixation may be another factor influencing the association of plant species. Effects of small scale heterogeneity in apparent N availability in the soil were detected to be the least important for the species composition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]