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Background: As of 2021, the National Kala-azar Elimination Programme (NKAEP) in India has achieved visceral leishmaniasis (VL) elimination (<1 case / 10,000 population/year per block) in 625 of the 633 endemic blocks (subdistricts) in four states. The programme needs to sustain this achievement and target interventions in the remaining blocks to achieve the WHO 2030 target of VL elimination as a public health problem. An effective tool to analyse programme data and predict/ forecast the spatial and temporal trends of VL incidence, elimination threshold, and risk of resurgence will be of use to the programme management at this juncture. Methodology/principal findings: We employed spatiotemporal models incorporating environment, climatic and demographic factors as covariates to describe monthly VL cases for 8-years (2013–2020) in 491 and 27 endemic and non-endemic blocks of Bihar and Jharkhand states. We fitted 37 models of spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal interaction random effects with covariates to monthly VL cases for 6-years (2013–2018, training data) using Bayesian inference via Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) approach. The best-fitting model was selected based on deviance information criterion (DIC) and Watanabe-Akaike Information Criterion (WAIC) and was validated with monthly cases for 2019–2020 (test data). The model could describe observed spatial and temporal patterns of VL incidence in the two states with widely differing incidence trajectories, with >93% and 99% coverage probability (proportion of observations falling inside 95% Bayesian credible interval for the predicted number of VL cases per month) during the training and testing periods. PIT (probability integral transform) histograms confirmed consistency between prediction and observation for the test period. Forecasting for 2021–2023 showed that the annual VL incidence is likely to exceed elimination threshold in 16–18 blocks in 4 districts of Jharkhand and 33–38 blocks in 10 districts of Bihar. The risk of VL in non-endemic neighbouring blocks of both Bihar and Jharkhand are less than 0.5 during the training and test periods, and for 2021–2023, the probability that the risk greater than 1 is negligible (P<0.1). Fitted model showed that VL occurrence was positively associated with mean temperature, minimum temperature, enhanced vegetation index, precipitation, and isothermality, and negatively with maximum temperature, land surface temperature, soil moisture and population density. Conclusions/significance: The spatiotemporal model incorporating environmental, bioclimatic, and demographic factors demonstrated that the KAMIS database of the national programmme can be used for block level predictions of long-term spatial and temporal trends in VL incidence and risk of outbreak / resurgence in endemic and non-endemic settings. The database integrated with the modelling framework and a dashboard facility can facilitate such analysis and predictions. This could aid the programme to monitor progress of VL elimination at least one-year ahead, assess risk of resurgence or outbreak in post-elimination settings, and implement timely and targeted interventions or preventive measures so that the NKAEP meet the target of achieving elimination by 2030. Author summary: In India, VL has been endemic in four states (Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal), having over 165 million population. The national programme achieved elimination (<1 case / 10,000 population/year per 'block') in 625 of the 633 endemic blocks in 2021. While sustaining elimination level, the programme needs to target other blocks yet to reach elimination to achieve the WHO 2030 target. We fitted a variety of spatiotemporal models to 72-monthly reported VL cases (2013–2018, training period) from 491 endemic and 27 non-endemic blocks in Bihar and Jharkhand. The best fitting model was validated with 24-month reported cases (2019–2020, test period). Model predictions agree with >93 and 99% of the monthly-observations for the periods. Forecasting for 2021–2023 showed that incidence is likely to exceed elimination threshold in 16–18 and 33–38 historically high endemic blocks of Jharkhand and Bihar. Fitted model showed that VL incidence is positively associated with mean temperature, minimum temperature, enhanced vegetation index, precipitation, and isothermality, and negatively with maximum temperature, land surface temperature, soil moisture and population density. Forecasting VL incidence at block level can aid to monitor elimination progress, target the blocks yet to reach elimination and long-term monitoring of risk of resurgence during post-elimination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Diagnosis and treatment for visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is considered to be delayed amongst poor, rural women in highly endemic districts of Bihar and Jharkhand. The objective of this study was to assess and understand barriers to VL diagnosis and treatment for women in endemic districts with a high burden of VL. Methods: The study used a stratified and purposive sample of 33 female patients with VL, 11 health staff, 11 local (unqualified) health providers and 12 groups of community elders drawn from ten districts in Bihar and four in Jharkhand with high burdens of VL. The study was conducted within an exploratory and inductive framework, using semi-structured in-depth interviews and discussions. Results: Women accessing treatment more quickly tended to move faster from treating their symptoms on their own to seeking care from local providers. Perception among female patients of the illness being not serious (owing to initially non-specific and mild symptoms), lack of money, prioritisation of household chores over their need to seek care and the absence of a male guardian to accompany them in seeking care at facilities worked together to drive these choices. Most patients and their families did not suspect VL as the cause for their non-specific symptoms, but when VL was suspected, treatment shopping ended. Lack of prioritization of women’s health issues appears to be a pervasive underlying factor. Public health facilities were not an early treatment choice for the majority, but where it was, the diagnosis of VL was often not considered when presenting with under 2 weeks of symptoms, nor were appropriate follow-up plans instituted. Conclusion: The insidious presentation of VL and the low prioritisation of women’s health need to be jointly addressed through messages that emphasise the importance of early diagnosis and treatment of disease, which is low-cost in time and money when managed in public health facilities. Clear messages that project prioritising women’s care-seeking over household work as a smart choice and the need for rallying male support are needed. Additionally, efforts to reduce missed opportunities through early case suspicion and engaging private providers to better counsel women with suspected VL could close critical gaps in the continuum of care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]