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This paper presents an integrated hybrid optimization algorithm for training the radial basis function neural network (RBF NN). Training of neural networks is still a challenging exercise in machine learning domain. Traditional training algorithms in general suffer and trap in local optima and lead to premature convergence, which makes them ineffective when applied for datasets with diverse features. Training algorithms based on evolutionary computations are becoming popular due to their robust nature in overcoming the drawbacks of the traditional algorithms. Accordingly, this paper proposes a hybrid training procedure with differential search (DS) algorithm functionally integrated with the particle swarm optimization (PSO). To surmount the local trapping of the search procedure, a new population initialization scheme is proposed using Logistic chaotic sequence, which enhances the population diversity and aid the search capability. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed RBF hybrid training algorithm, experimental analysis on publicly available 7 benchmark datasets are performed. Subsequently, experiments were conducted on a practical application case for wind speed prediction to expound the superiority of the proposed RBF training algorithm in terms of prediction accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Broken water pumps continue to impede efforts to deliver clean and economically-viable water to the global poor. The literature has demonstrated that customers’ health benefits and willingness to pay for clean water are best realized when clean water infrastructure performs extremely well (>99% uptime). In this paper, we used sensor data from 42 Afridev-brand handpumps observed for 14 months in western Kenya to demonstrate how sensors and supervised ensemble machine learning could be used to increase total fleet uptime from a best-practices baseline of about 70% to >99%. We accomplish this increase in uptime by forecasting pump failures and identifying existing failures very quickly. Comparing the costs of operating the pump per functional year over a lifetime of 10 years, we estimate that implementing this algorithm would save 7% on the levelized cost of water relative to a sensor-less scheduled maintenance program. Combined with a rigorous system for dispatching maintenance personnel, implementing this algorithm in a real-world program could significantly improve health outcomes and customers’ willingness to pay for water services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The adaptation of the CRISPR-Cas9 system as a genome editing technique has generated much excitement in recent years owing to its ability to manipulate targeted genes and genomic regions that are complementary to a programmed single guide RNA (sgRNA). However, the efficacy of a specific sgRNA is not uniquely defined by exact sequence homology to the target site, thus unintended off-targets might additionally be cleaved. Current methods for sgRNA design are mainly concerned with predicting off-targets for a given sgRNA using basic sequence features and employ elementary rules for ranking possible sgRNAs. Here, we introduce CRISTA (CRISPR Target Assessment), a novel algorithm within the machine learning framework that determines the propensity of a genomic site to be cleaved by a given sgRNA. We show that the predictions made with CRISTA are more accurate than other available methodologies. We further demonstrate that the occurrence of bulges is not a rare phenomenon and should be accounted for in the prediction process. Beyond predicting cleavage efficiencies, the learning process provides inferences regarding patterns that underlie the mechanism of action of the CRISPR-Cas9 system. We discover that attributes that describe the spatial structure and rigidity of the entire genomic site as well as those surrounding the PAM region are a major component of the prediction capabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Proteomic analysis of cancers' stages has provided new opportunities for the development of novel, highly sensitive diagnostic tools which helps early detection of cancer. This paper introduces a new feature ranking approach called FRMT. FRMT is based on the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution method (TOPSIS) which select the most discriminative proteins from proteomics data for cancer staging. In this approach, outcomes of 10 feature selection techniques were combined by TOPSIS method, to select the final discriminative proteins from seven different proteomic databases of protein expression profiles. In the proposed workflow, feature selection methods and protein expressions have been considered as criteria and alternatives in TOPSIS, respectively. The proposed method is tested on seven various classifier models in a 10-fold cross validation procedure that repeated 30 times on the seven cancer datasets. The obtained results proved the higher stability and superior classification performance of method in comparison with other methods, and it is less sensitive to the applied classifier. Moreover, the final introduced proteins are informative and have the potential for application in the real medical practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Machine learning is becoming a popular and important approach in the field of medical research. In this study, we investigate the relative performance of various machine learning methods such as Decision Tree, Naïve Bayes, Logistic Regression, Logistic Model Tree and Random Forests for predicting incident diabetes using medical records of cardiorespiratory fitness. In addition, we apply different techniques to uncover potential predictors of diabetes. This FIT project study used data of 32,555 patients who are free of any known coronary artery disease or heart failure who underwent clinician-referred exercise treadmill stress testing at Henry Ford Health Systems between 1991 and 2009 and had a complete 5-year follow-up. At the completion of the fifth year, 5,099 of those patients have developed diabetes. The dataset contained 62 attributes classified into four categories: demographic characteristics, disease history, medication use history, and stress test vital signs. We developed an Ensembling-based predictive model using 13 attributes that were selected based on their clinical importance, Multiple Linear Regression, and Information Gain Ranking methods. The negative effect of the imbalance class of the constructed model was handled by Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE). The overall performance of the predictive model classifier was improved by the Ensemble machine learning approach using the Vote method with three Decision Trees (Naïve Bayes Tree, Random Forest, and Logistic Model Tree) and achieved high accuracy of prediction (AUC = 0.92). The study shows the potential of ensembling and SMOTE approaches for predicting incident diabetes using cardiorespiratory fitness data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Today, China is facing a very serious issue of Air Pollution due to its dreadful impact on the human health as well as the environment. The urban cities in China are the most affected due to their rapid industrial and economic growth. Therefore, it is of extreme importance to come up with new, better and more reliable forecasting models to accurately predict the air quality. This paper selected Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang as three cities from the Jingjinji Region for the study to come up with a new model of collaborative forecasting using Support Vector Regression (SVR) for Urban Air Quality Index (AQI) prediction in China. The present study is aimed to improve the forecasting results by minimizing the prediction error of present machine learning algorithms by taking into account multiple city multi-dimensional air quality information and weather conditions as input. The results show that there is a decrease in MAPE in case of multiple city multi-dimensional regression when there is a strong interaction and correlation of the air quality characteristic attributes with AQI. Also, the geographical location is found to play a significant role in Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang AQI prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Internet-connected devices, especially mobile devices such as smartphones, have become widely accessible in the past decade. Interaction with such devices has evolved into frequent and short-duration usage, and this phenomenon has resulted in a pervasive popularity of casual games in the game sector. On the other hand, development of casual games has become easier than ever as a result of the advancement of development tools. With the resulting fierce competition, now both acquisition and retention of users are the prime concerns in the field. In this study, we focus on churn prediction of mobile and online casual games. While churn prediction and analysis can provide important insights and action cues on retention, its application using play log data has been primitive or very limited in the casual game area. Most of the existing methods cannot be applied to casual games because casual game players tend to churn very quickly and they do not pay periodic subscription fees. Therefore, we focus on the new players and formally define churn using observation period (OP) and churn prediction period (CP). Using the definition, we develop a standard churn analysis process for casual games. We cover essential topics such as pre-processing of raw data, feature engineering including feature analysis, churn prediction modeling using traditional machine learning algorithms (logistic regression, gradient boosting, and random forests) and two deep learning algorithms (CNN and LSTM), and sensitivity analysis for OP and CP. Play log data of three different casual games are considered by analyzing a total of 193,443 unique player records and 10,874,958 play log records. While the analysis results provide useful insights, the overall results indicate that a small number of well-chosen features used as performance metrics might be sufficient for making important action decisions and that OP and CP should be properly chosen depending on the analysis goal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nearly 1% of the global population has Epilepsy. Forecasting epileptic seizures with an acceptable confidence level, could improve the disease treatment and thus the lifestyle of the people who suffer it. To do that the electroencephalogram (EEG) signal is usually studied through spectral power band filtering, but this paper proposes an alternative novel method of preprocessing the EEG signal based on supervised filters. Such filters have been employed in a machine learning algorithm, such as the K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), to improve the prediction of seizures. The proposed solution extends with this novel approach an algorithm that was submitted to win the third prize of an international Data Science challenge promoted by Kaggle contest platform and the American Epilepsy Society, the Epilepsy Foundation, National Institutes of Health (NIH) and Mayo Clinic. A formal description of these preprocessing methods is presented and a detailed analysis in terms of Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve and Area Under ROC curve is performed. The obtained results show statistical significant improvements when compared with the spectral power band filtering (PBF) typical baseline. A trend between performance and the dataset size is observed, suggesting that the supervised filters bring better information, compared to the conventional PBF filters, as the dataset grows in terms of monitored variables (sensors) and time length. The paper demonstrates a better accuracy in forecasting when new filters are employed and its main contribution is in the field of machine learning algorithms to develop more accurate predictive systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study aimed to develop machine learning models that have strong prediction power and interpretability for diagnosis of glaucoma based on retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness and visual field (VF). We collected various candidate features from the examination of retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness and visual field (VF). We also developed synthesized features from original features. We then selected the best features proper for classification (diagnosis) through feature evaluation. We used 100 cases of data as a test dataset and 399 cases of data as a training and validation dataset. To develop the glaucoma prediction model, we considered four machine learning algorithms: C5.0, random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and k-nearest neighbor (KNN). We repeatedly composed a learning model using the training dataset and evaluated it by using the validation dataset. Finally, we got the best learning model that produces the highest validation accuracy. We analyzed quality of the models using several measures. The random forest model shows best performance and C5.0, SVM, and KNN models show similar accuracy. In the random forest model, the classification accuracy is 0.98, sensitivity is 0.983, specificity is 0.975, and AUC is 0.979. The developed prediction models show high accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and AUC in classifying among glaucoma and healthy eyes. It will be used for predicting glaucoma against unknown examination records. Clinicians may reference the prediction results and be able to make better decisions. We may combine multiple learning models to increase prediction accuracy. The C5.0 model includes decision rules for prediction. It can be used to explain the reasons for specific predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Leveraging smart metering solutions to support energy efficiency on the individual household level poses novel research challenges in monitoring usage and providing accurate load forecasting. Forecasting electricity usage is an especially important component that can provide intelligence to smart meters. In this paper, we propose an enhanced approach for load forecasting at the household level. The impacts of residents’ daily activities and appliance usages on the power consumption of the entire household are incorporated to improve the accuracy of the forecasting model. The contributions of this paper are threefold: (1) we addressed short-term electricity load forecasting for 24 hours ahead, not on the aggregate but on the individual household level, which fits into the Residential Power Load Forecasting (RPLF) methods; (2) for the forecasting, we utilized a household specific dataset of behaviors that influence power consumption, which was derived using segmentation and sequence mining algorithms; and (3) an extensive load forecasting study using different forecasting algorithms enhanced by the household activity patterns was undertaken. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building on developments in machine learning and prior work in the science of judicial prediction, we construct a model designed to predict the behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States in a generalized, out-of-sample context. To do so, we develop a time-evolving random forest classifier that leverages unique feature engineering to predict more than 240,000 justice votes and 28,000 cases outcomes over nearly two centuries (1816-2015). Using only data available prior to decision, our model outperforms null (baseline) models at both the justice and case level under both parametric and non-parametric tests. Over nearly two centuries, we achieve 70.2% accuracy at the case outcome level and 71.9% at the justice vote level. More recently, over the past century, we outperform an in-sample optimized null model by nearly 5%. Our performance is consistent with, and improves on the general level of prediction demonstrated by prior work; however, our model is distinctive because it can be applied out-of-sample to the entire past and future of the Court, not a single term. Our results represent an important advance for the science of quantitative legal prediction and portend a range of other potential applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present and test a sequential learning algorithm for the prediction of human mobility that leverages large datasets of sequences to improve prediction accuracy, in particular for users with a short and non-repetitive data history such as tourists in a foreign country. The algorithm compensates for the difficulty of predicting the next location when there is limited evidence of past behavior by leveraging the availability of sequences of other users in the same system that provide redundant records of typical behavioral patterns. We test the method on a dataset of 10 million roaming mobile phone users in a European country. The average prediction accuracy is significantly higher than that of individual sequence prediction algorithms, primarily constant order Markov models derived from the user’s own data, that have been shown to achieve high accuracy in previous studies of human mobility. The proposed algorithm is generally applicable to improve any sequential prediction when there is a sufficiently rich and diverse dataset of sequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Treatment of patients with chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) has become increasingly difficult in recent years due to the variety of treatment options available and challenge deciding on the most appropriate treatment strategy for an individual patient. To facilitate the treatment strategy decision, disease assessment should involve molecular response to initial treatment for an individual patient. Patients predicted not to achieve major molecular response (MMR) at 24 months to frontline imatinib may be better treated with alternative frontline therapies, such as nilotinib or dasatinib. The aims of this study were to i) understand the clinical prediction ‘rules’ for predicting MMR at 24 months for CML patients treated with imatinib using clinical, molecular, and cell count observations (predictive factors collected at diagnosis and categorised based on available knowledge) and ii) develop a predictive model for CML treatment management. This predictive model was developed, based on CML patients undergoing imatinib therapy enrolled in the TIDEL II clinical trial with an experimentally identified achieving MMR group and non-achieving MMR group, by addressing the challenge as a machine learning problem. The recommended model was validated externally using an independent data set from King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre, Saudi Arabia. Principle Findings: The common prognostic scores yielded similar sensitivity performance in testing and validation datasets and are therefore good predictors of the positive group. The G-mean and F-score values in our models outperformed the common prognostic scores in testing and validation datasets and are therefore good predictors for both the positive and negative groups. Furthermore, a high PPV above 65% indicated that our models are appropriate for making decisions at diagnosis and pre-therapy. Study limitations include that prior knowledge may change based on varying expert opinions; hence, representing the category boundaries of each predictive factor could dramatically change performance of the models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]