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University scientific research ability is an important indicator to express the strength of universities. In this paper, the evaluation of university scientific research ability is investigated based on the output of sci-tech papers. Four university alliances from North America, UK, Australia, and China, are selected as the case study of the university scientific research evaluation. Data coming from Thomson Reuters InCites are collected to support the evaluation. The work has contributed new framework to the issue of university scientific research ability evaluation. At first, we have established a hierarchical structure to show the factors that impact the evaluation of university scientific research ability. Then, a new MCDM method called D-AHP model is used to implement the evaluation and ranking of different university alliances, in which a data-driven approach is proposed to automatically generate the D numbers preference relations. Next, a sensitivity analysis has been given to show the impact of weights of factors and sub-factors on the evaluation result. At last, the results obtained by using different methods are compared and discussed to verify the effectiveness and reasonability of this study, and some suggestions are given to promote China’s scientific research ability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several studies have shown that the performance of a supply chain is heavily influenced by the pattern of relationships among firms. This paper analyzes the structure of relationships (network topology) that leads to the highest agility of a food supply chain when sudden demand changes occur. To do this, a simulation model that represents a supply chain and specific rules to allocate orders is built. The supply chain in the model follows the specific characteristics of trade in the primary sector. The model is fitted to the conditions of a real seafood supply chain in Mexico. Agility is measured through the effect on the order fulfillment of a sudden demand shock and the recovery time of this rate to previous values. The simulation results show that the most suitable structure depends on how product is distributed among suppliers. If product is evenly shared, supply chains with homogeneous topologies are more agile than supply chains with heterogeneous topologies, but the result is the opposite if product is unevenly shared among suppliers. Other previous recommendations, such as having multiple suppliers and horizontal links, are confirmed by the simulations. These findings contribute to the general debate on which is the optimal topology for an agile supply chain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The adoption of the shared prosperity goal by the World Bank in 2013 and Sustainable Development Goal 10, on inequality, by the United Nations in 2015 should strengthen the focus of development interventions and cooperation on the income growth of the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution. This paper contributes to the incipient literature on within-country allocations of development institutions and assesses the geographic targeting of World Bank projects to the bottom 40 percent. Bivariate correlations between the allocation of project funding approved over 2005–14 and the geographical distribution of the bottom 40 as measured by survey income or consumption data are complemented by regressions with population and other potential factors affecting the within-country allocations as controls. The correlation analysis shows that, of the 58 countries in the sample, 41 exhibit a positive correlation between the shares of the bottom 40 and World Bank funding, and, in almost half of these, the correlation is above 0.5. Slightly more than a quarter of the countries, mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa, exhibit a negative correlation. The regression analysis shows that, once one controls for population, the correlation between the bottom 40 and World Bank funding switches sign and becomes significant and negative on average. This is entirely driven by Sub-Saharan Africa and not observed in the other regions. Hence, the significant and positive correlation in the estimations without controlling for population suggests that World Bank project funding is concentrated in administrative areas in which more people live (including the bottom 40) rather than in poorer administrative areas. Furthermore, capital cities receive disproportionally high shares of World Bank funding on average. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Medical Monitoring Project (MMP) is an HIV surveillance system that provides national estimates of HIV-related behaviors and clinical outcomes. When first implemented, MMP excluded persons living with HIV not receiving HIV care. This analysis will describe new case-surveillance-based methods to identify and recruit persons living with HIV who are out of care and at elevated risk for mortality and ongoing HIV transmission. Stratified random samples of all persons living with HIV were selected from the National HIV Surveillance System in five public health jurisdictions from 2012–2014. Sampled persons were located and contacted through seven different data sources and five methods of contact to collect interviews and medical record abstractions. Data were weighted for non-response and case reporting delay. The modified sampling methodology yielded 1159 interviews (adjusted response rate, 44.5%) and matching medical record abstractions for 1087 (93.8%). Of persons with both interview and medical record data, 264 (24.3%) would not have been included using prior MMP methods. Significant predictors were identified for successful contact (e.g., retention in care, adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR] 5.02; 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.98–12.73), interview (e.g. moving out of jurisdiction, aOR 0.24; 95% CI: 0.12–0.46) and case reporting delay (e.g. rural residence, aOR 3.18; 95% CI: 2.09–4.85). Case-surveillance-based sampling resulted in a comparable response rate to existing MMP methods while providing information on an important new population. These methods have since been adopted by the nationally representative MMP surveillance system, offering a model for public health program, research and surveillance endeavors seeking inclusion of all persons living with HIV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Downscaled climate projections need to be linked to downscaled projections of population and economic growth to fully develop implications for land, natural resources, and ecosystems for future scenarios. We develop an empirical spatiotemporal approach for jointly projecting population and income at the county scale in the United States that is consistent with neoclassical economic growth theory and overlapping labor markets and that accounts for labor migration and spatial spillovers. Downscaled projections generated for the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways used to support global scenario analysis generally show growth focused around relatively few centers especially in the southeast and western regions, with some areas in the Midwest and northeast experiencing population declines. Results are consistent with economic growth theory and with historical trends in population change and convergence of per capita personal income across US counties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Residential segregation into spatial neighborhoods and boroughs is a well-known spatial dynamic process that characterise complex urban environments. Existing models of segregation, including the pioneering Schelling ones, often do not consider all the factors that can contribute to this process. Segregation as well as aggregation emerges from local interactions among individuals, and is rooted in the complexity of social, economic and environmental interactions. The main objective of this study is to develop and implement a geospatial agent-based model to simulate the decision-making process of location of new household for incoming immigrant populations. Particularly this study aims to simulate and analyse the dynamics of the new immigrant populations arriving in the bilingual cities and boroughs of the island of Montreal. The model was implemented in NetLogo software, using real geospatial datasets. The obtained simulation results indicate realistic spatial patterns of spatial composition of the ethnographic fabric on the island of Montreal. The proposed model has the potential to be used as part of the city planning purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As emerging and re-emerging infectious arboviruses like dengue, chikungunya, and Zika threaten new populations worldwide, officials scramble to assess local severity and transmissibility, with little to no epidemiological history to draw upon. Indirect estimates of risk from vector habitat suitability maps are prone to great uncertainty, while direct estimates from epidemiological data are only possible after cases accumulate and, given environmental constraints on arbovirus transmission, cannot be widely generalized beyond the focal region. Combining these complementary methods, we use disease importation and transmission data to improve the accuracy and precision of a priori ecological risk estimates. We demonstrate this approach by estimating the spatiotemporal risks of Zika virus transmission throughout Texas, a high-risk region in the southern United States. Our estimates are, on average, 80% lower than published ecological estimates—with only six of 254 Texas counties deemed capable of sustaining a Zika epidemic—and they are consistent with the number of autochthonous cases detected in 2017. Importantly our method provides a framework for model comparison, as our mechanistic understanding of arbovirus transmission continues to improve. Real-time updating of prior risk estimates as importations and outbreaks arise can thereby provide critical, early insight into local transmission risks as emerging arboviruses expand their global reach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The maximum entropy model, a commonly used species distribution model (SDM) normally combines observations of the species occurrence with environmental information to predict the geographic distributions of animal or plant species. However, it only produces point estimates for the probability of species existence. To understand the uncertainty of the point estimates, we analytically derived the variance of the outputs of the maximum entropy model from the variance of the input. We applied the analytic method to obtain the standard deviation of dengue importation probability and Aedes aegypti suitability. Dengue occurrence data and Aedes aegypti mosquito abundance data, combined with demographic and environmental data, were applied to obtain point estimates and the corresponding variance. To address the issue of not having the true distributions for comparison, we compared and contrasted the performance of the analytical expression with the bootstrap method and Poisson point process model which proved of equivalence of maximum entropy model with the assumption of independent point locations. Both Dengue importation probability and Aedes aegypti mosquito suitability examples show that the methods generate comparatively the same results and the analytic method we introduced is dramatically faster than the bootstrap method and directly apply to maximum entropy model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite considerable air pollution prevention and control measures that have been put into practice in recent years, outdoor air pollution remains one of the most important risk factors for health outcomes. To identify the potential research gaps, we conducted a scoping review focused on health outcomes affected by outdoor air pollution across the broad research area. Of the 5759 potentially relevant studies, 799 were included in the final analysis. The included studies showed an increasing publication trend from 1992 to 2008, and most of the studies were conducted in Asia, Europe, and North America. Among the eight categorized health outcomes, asthma (category: respiratory diseases) and mortality (category: health records) were the most common ones. Adverse health outcomes involving respiratory diseases among children accounted for the largest group. Out of the total included studies, 95.2% reported at least one statistically positive result, and only 0.4% showed ambiguous results. Based on our study, we suggest that the time frame of the included studies, their disease definitions, and the measurement of personal exposure to outdoor air pollution should be taken into consideration in any future research. The main limitation of this study is its potential language bias, since only English publications were included. In conclusion, this scoping review provides researchers and policy decision makers with evidence taken from multiple disciplines to show the increasing prevalence of outdoor air pollution and its adverse effects on health outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species may become invasive after introduction to a new range because phenotypic traits pre-adapt them to spread and become dominant. In addition, adaptation to novel selection pressures in the introduced range may further increase their potential to become invasive. The diploid Leucanthemum vulgare and the tetraploid L. ircutianum are native to Eurasia and have been introduced to North America, but only L. vulgare has become invasive. To investigate whether phenotypic differences between the two species in Eurasia could explain the higher abundance of L. vulgare in North America and whether rapid evolution in the introduced range may have contributed to its invasion success, we grew 20 L. vulgare and 21 L. ircutianum populations from Eurasia and 21 L. vulgare populations from North America under standardized conditions and recorded performance and functional traits. In addition, we recorded morphological traits to investigate whether the two closely related species can be clearly distinguished by morphological means and to what extent morphological traits have changed in L. vulgare post-introduction. We found pronounced phenotypic differences between L. vulgare and L. ircutianum from the native range as well as between L. vulgare from the native and introduced ranges. The two species differed significantly in morphology but only moderately in functional or performance traits that could have explained the higher invasion success of L. vulgare in North America. In contrast, leaf morphology was similar between L. vulgare from the native and introduced range, but plants from North America flowered later, were larger and had more and larger flower heads than those from Eurasia. In summary, we found litte evidence that specific traits of L. vulgare may have pre-adapted this species to become more invasive than L. ircutianum, but our results indicate that rapid evolution in the introduced range likely contributed to the invasion success of L. vulgare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In North America, cerambycid beetles can have significant ecological and economic effects on forest ecosystems, and the rate of introduction and/or detection of exotic species is increasing. Detection and survey programs rely on semiochemical-baited intercept traps which are often ineffective for large woodborers like cerambycid beetles. This study examined the effects of flight intercept trap design on the capture of cerambycid beetles in the subfamilies Lamiinae and Cerambycinae. These subfamilies are the two largest in the Cerambycidae and they include many of the most damaging cerambycid pests and species on regulatory watch lists in North America. This study demonstrates that intercept trap design, treatment of trap surfaces with a lubricant, and the type of collection cup all influence the capture of beetles from the subfamilies Lamiinae and Cerambycinae. It also demonstrates that the addition of a large lubricant-treated collar to the bottom funnel of a multiple-funnel trap significantly increases the capture of some Lamiinae. The best trap design for both subfamilies was a lubricant treated multiple-funnel [MF] trap equipped with a wet cup and lubricant treated large collar on the bottom funnel. This design captured between 4 and 14 times more Lamiinae and Cerambycinae than commercially-available MF and panel traps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]