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The recent growth pattern of India is set in the context of the parallel experience of China, the experience of poverty reduction is reviewed, and a number of papers illuminating India's development are introduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues that China may well consider a probable shift of its position on the principle of State immunity from the absolute doctrine to the restrictive doctrine for the purpose of better accommodating the rapid growth of the private sector in China's economic structure and significantly enhancing the judicial protection of the interest of Chinese private entities actively involved in international commerce since the 1990s. This paper makes a brief study of China's past practice and position in relation to State immunity, offers an analysis of the rationale for a position shift, recommends means to facilitate the shift and comments on some relevant principal legal issues about which China may have legitimate concerns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the patterns of entry into self-employment in urban and rural China and across different reform stages, focusing on how communist cadres have responded to new market opportunities. Analysis of data from a national representative survey shows that both education and cadre status deter people from entry into self-employment in urban areas but not in rural areas. However, urban cadres have become increasingly more likely to be self-employed over time, and only those who became self-employed in the late reform stage have enjoyed higher income returns. The paper concludes that the labor mobility process should be taken into account in studying changes in advantages/disadvantages associated with different social groups in post-socialist transition economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article is based on the presidential address delivered at the EEA Annual Congress 2016. It discusses China's institutional and economic transformation through the lens of the model of growth and convergence developed in Acemoglu, Aghion, and Zilibotti (JEEA 2006), which emphasizes the dichotomy between investment- and innovation-led growth. The economic reforms introduced in the 1980s and 1990s have enabled the Chinese economy to grow at historically unprecedented rates through fostering investment, reallocation, and technology adoption from abroad. The Chinese stimulus package introduced in 2008 appears to have prolonged the longevity of China's investmentdriven growth beyond its optimal point. Over the last decade, China has activated the engine of innovation-led growth. The article discusses the virtues and limits of such ongoing transition, based on research in progress using firm-level data on R&D and productivity growth. Finally, it provides an appraisal of the institutional and policy reforms that are necessary for China to continue on its path of rapid convergence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The World Health Organization recommends the elderly and persons with certain chronic diseases to receive an annual influenza vaccine and to be prioritized for immunization against pandemic influenza, because they are at greater risk for health complications. This paper aims to compare influenza vaccination coverage between adults in China with and without high-risk health conditions. Methods Data were from the cross-sectional China General Social Survey, 2010. Adults were interviewed about their health, including whether they had been vaccinated against either seasonal or pandemic influenza within the past year. A multivariable logistic regression model estimated the adjusted odds of any influenza vaccination in high-risk groups compared with low-risk groups. Results Only 10.5% (372/3592) of Chinese adults were vaccinated against influenza. In a multivariable regression model, there was no significant difference in influenza vaccine uptake between those with and without high-risk health conditions. However, healthcare attitudes and behaviours were significantly associated with vaccine uptake. Conclusions Influenza vaccination coverage is extremely low in Chinese adults who are elderly and have chronic diseases. These two groups are at greatest risk for influenza-related morbidity and mortality and should be targets of programmes to increase positive attitudes towards vaccination and decrease barriers to uptake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a widespread perception that international economic integration has been proceeding faster and further than ever before. A careful examination of the appropriate indicators reveals that such a dramatic account of recent developments applies only exceptionally (notably to China); the general rule is for steadily increasing trade shares and foreign investment, which still leaves the majority of workers employed in sheltered sectors. Differences in rates of social spending have survived pressures on countries to ‘race to the bottom’. Profitability has not converged, even in fiercely competitive manufacturing. Declines in absolute poverty and perhaps inequality still leave rising absolute differences between North and South, while expectations are probably converging faster. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Examines gender wage discrimination in China's newly developed industrial sector. Gender differential wages and occupational attainment; Considerations for occupational segregation in estimating wage; Model of occupational attainment; Impact of occupational attainment on the gender wage gap; Scarcity of employment opportunities; Comparison with industrial countries.

Objective: To determine whether or not chronic disease positively impacts medical costs among the rural elderly in China and to calculate medical expenditure induced by chronic disease between different groups of the rural elderly, as well as provide insight into the factors that affect medical losses induced by chronic disease among different household registration groups and different New Rural Pension Scheme statuses.Design: To estimate the share of medical expenses induced by chronic disease, this article uses a two-part model and a four-part model to analyze the causal effect of chronic disease on medical services and then uses a counter-factual method to estimate the share of medical expenses.Setting: The rapid development of China has changed nearly every aspect of life for the rural elderly. Many are concerned about the increasing prevalence of physical health issues, particularly chronic diseases, among the rural elderly. Nevertheless, there are no articles using nationally representative panel datasets that report differences in the cost of chronic disease between sub-populations.Participants: The panel dataset used for this study comes from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data. In this study, we use the CFPS data for the years 2012, 2014 and 2016 to create a panel dataset that includes 2730 rural elderly for 3 years.Interventions: This article reports the representative estimate of medical expenditures attributable to chronic disease among rural elderly in China. On this basis, we estimate per capita medical spending among rural elderly under the condition of logarithmic normal distribution of different parameters between urban and rural or between groups that participate in the New Rural Pension Program and groups that do not.Main Outcome Measures: This study indicates that physical health status has a significant impact on both the probability of undergoing medical care and the size of medical expenditures among the rural elderly, and the influence was significant for all patients, including outpatients and inpatients.Results: Chronic illness has significant effects on individual medical expenses, and they aggregately contribute to 63.96% of total personal expected medical expenditure. Specifically, the medical spending caused by chronic disease was part of a non-uniform distribution, with the rural, male, older, married and higher educated groups spending more money on medical costs induced by chronic disease.Conclusions: Examining trends in the prevalence of chronic diseases and evaluating medical spending on chronic diseases can prevent and control potential medical costs among rural elderly, especially for vulnerable groups, which helps to predict future health-care needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tremendous changes have occurred in China–US relations since Donald J. Trump took office in the White House, but the most significant event is the outbreak of the China–US trade war, whose unprecedented scale and impact has drawn wide attention in China and sparked considerable debate. This article aims to review the four main stages of this great debate on the China–US trade war among China's influential intellectuals and prominent thinkers. It covers the three-year period since beginning of the Trump administration. The initial argument among Chinese academics was whether or not there could ever be a trade war, which led to a dividing line between optimists and pessimists. Soon after, when China-US relations took a sharp downturn and a trade war seemed inevitable, Chinese scholars shifted their focus to reasons why the United States should wage a trade war against China. This culminated in three different perspectives embodied respectively in the structural conflict theory, institutional conflict theory, and the theory on exporting domestic problems. After China and the United States began slapping additional tariffs on one another's exported goods, and with the flare-up of the Zhongxing Telecommunication Equipment Corporation (ZTE) and Huawei incidents, the debate on how to respond to a trade war cleaved between the 'whole nation system school' and the 'market reform school'. As to coping with the technology war, Chinese intellectuals were divided between the paths of 'independent innovation' and 'open innovation'. More recently, in view of the many signs that the China–US trade war could continue indefinitely, and an economic decoupling of the two nations is no longer unimaginable, a fierce debate has arisen between those that advocate full preparations for such economic decoupling and those who insist on further links with the US economy. Although the main themes of the four stages of the debate differ somewhat, they share a certain degree of consistency as regards the conceptual pedigree of the debating parties. Their divergence derives, in essence, from different perspectives on such issues as state power versus market force, independence versus interdependence, and zero-sum competition of power versus win-win economic cooperation. This also exemplifies the competing views in Chinese academia on classical political economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rise of China raises fundamental questions about the future of the liberal international order (LIO) at a time when it is under ever more strain. Although China's focus for some years was on joining and participating in existing multilateral institutions, today China is increasingly building its own. Prominent among them is the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), launched in late 2014. Against the background of contending theoretical expectations, this article examines the extent to which the AIIB either reinforces or challenges the LIO and highlights what this tells us about China's broader relationship with the LIO. We provide a definition of the LIO that is based on its social purpose rather than on its formal characteristics. State-centric approaches offer insights into China's decision to engage in new institution building via the AIIB, but we argue that a focus on social purpose is necessary to assess the AIIB's broader implications for the LIO. We find that, while conforming in large measure to existing institutional models, the AIIB promotes China's integration into global social networks, strengthens state-led development pathways, and is associated with the Chinese norm of non-interference. The AIIB, thus, foreshadows the possibility of an institutionalised international order indifferent to liberalism. In sum, the AIIB reflects the tensions between the socialising effects of the LIO and China's growing externalisation of its own non-liberal, state-led model of political economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We exploit a policy‐induced exogenous surge in China's college‐educated workforce that started in 2003 to identify the impact of human capital on productivity. Using a difference‐in‐differences estimation strategy, we find that industries using more human‐capital intensive technologies experienced a larger gain in total factor productivity after 2003 than they did in prior years. Exploring the pathways from human capital increases to TFP growth, we find that these industries also accelerated new technology adoption, as reflected in the importation of advanced capital goods, R&D expenditure and capital intensity, as well as employment of more highly skilled individuals. The productivity gains were weaker for domestic private firms than for foreign‐owned firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under President Xi Jinping's leadership, Chinese foreign relations have moved from keeping a low profile, to a more assertive bid for international leadership that is beginning to take form in the 'belt and road initiative' (BRI). This initiative focuses on connectivity in policy coordination, facilities, trade, finance and people-to-people relations, in order to connect China to key parts of Asia, the south Pacific, east Africa and Europe. Networked capitalism and the national unit, which are often seen as spatial opposites in the global political economy, are both exercised through the BRI in mutually supporting ways. Networked capitalism is not challenging the national spatial unit, nor vice versa. Rather, they conglomerate to reinforce Chinese government narratives which portray China as the new trailblazer of global capitalism—thus illustrating and justifying a new Sinocentric order in east Asia. Likely winners of this constellation, if it is successful, are megalopolises in Eurasia, and most of all the Chinese Communist Party. Likely losers are countries that are not included in the BRI, most notably the United States. In a context where President Donald Trump is signalling a more protectionist stance and the United States is withdrawing from free trade pacts like the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Trump may ironically enable Xi's dream of making China great again. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The main aim of the New-type Rural Cooperative Medical System (NRCMS) put into effect in 2003 was to reduce financial barriers in accessing health care services among vulnerable populations. The aim of this study was to assess the association between NRCMS and income related inequality in hospital utilization among rural inhabitants in Jiangxi Province, China.Methods: A multistage stratified random cluster sampling method was adopted to select 1838, 1879, and 1890 households as participants in 2003/2004, 2008 and 2014, respectively. The Erreygers Concentration index (EI) of two measures of hospital inpatient care including admission to hospital and hospital avoidance, were calculated to measure income-related inequality. The decomposition of the EI was performed to characterize the contributions of socioeconomic and need factors to the measured inequality.Results: An affluent-focused (pro-rich) inequity was observed for hospital admission adjusting for need factors over time. The level of inequity for hospital admission decreased dramatically, while hospital avoidance decreased marginally, and with a high value (EI, -0.0176) in 2008. The implementation of the NRCMS was associated with decreased inequity in 2008 and in 2014, but the associations were limited. Income contributed the most to the inequality of hospital utilization each year.Conclusion: The coverage of the NRCMS expanded to cover nearly all rural inhabitants in Jiangxi province by 2014 and was associated with a very small reduction in inequalities in admission to hospital. In order to increase equitable access to health care, additional financial protections for vulnerable populations are needed. Improving the relatively low level of medical services in township hospitals, and low rate of reimbursement and financial assistance with the NRCMS is recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Infrastructure investment may reshape economic activities. In this article, I examine the distributional impacts of high-speed rail upgrades in China, which have improved passengers' access to high-speed train services in the city nodes but have left the peripheral counties along the upgraded railway lines bypassed by the services. By exploiting the quasi-experimental variation in whether counties were affected by this project, my analysis suggests that the affected counties on the upgraded railway lines experienced reductions in GDP and GDP per capita following the upgrade, which was largely driven by the concurrent drop in fixed asset investments. This article provides the first empirical evidence on how transportation costs of people affect urban peripheral patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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This article shows how underdeveloped financial markets in emerging economies can explain the pattern of two-way capital flows between emerging economies (such as China) and the developed world (such as the United States). Our calibrated model reproduces China's rising financial capital outflows and FDI inflows as well as its massive trade imbalances in recent decades. Our model also predicts that global trade imbalances may be sustainable even in the long run and the conventional wisdom that the 'saving glut' of emerging economies is responsible for the global low interest rate may be wrong. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses findings of a study on community development in Beijing, China, as of February 2017. It states the impact of the economic reform of the socialist economy in 1978 on community development in the country, and mentions that the reform included the development of social work as a profession. It notes that non-state social organizations are becoming significant in the delivery of social services, and cites impact of migrant laborers in major cities.

The article focuses on findings of a study on neoliberalization and community development practices in Hong Kong, China, as of January 2017. It states that neoliberalism has been a dominant force for change in the policies and practices affecting many aspects of society, and mentions that community development services have undergone significant changes under the influence of neoliberalization. It notes that significance of development of entrepreneurial skills and capacities.

Introduction: In high-income countries, secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure is higher among disadvantaged groups. We examine socioeconomic inequalities in SHS exposure at home and at workplace in 15 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).Methods: Secondary analyses of cross-sectional data from 15 LMICs participating in Global Adult Tobacco Survey (participants ≥ 15 years; 2008-2011) were used. Country-specific analyses using regression-based methods were used to estimate the magnitude of socioeconomic inequalities in SHS exposure: (1) Relative Index of Inequality and (2) Slope Index of Inequality.Results: SHS exposure at home ranged from 17.4% in Mexico to 73.1% in Vietnam; exposure at workplace ranged from 16.9% in Uruguay to 65.8% in Bangladesh. In India, Bangladesh, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Uruguay, Poland, Turkey, Ukraine, and Egypt, SHS exposure at home reduced with increasing wealth (Relative Index of Inequality range: 1.13 [95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.22] in Turkey to 3.31 [95% CI 2.91-3.77] in Thailand; Slope Index of Inequality range: 0.06 [95% CI 0.02-0.11] in Turkey to 0.43 [95% CI 0.38-0.48] in Philippines). In these 11 countries, and in China, SHS exposure at home reduced with increasing education. In India, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Philippines, SHS exposure at workplace reduced with increasing wealth. In India, Bangladesh, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam, Poland, Russian Federation, Turkey, Ukraine, and Egypt, SHS exposure at workplace reduced with increasing education.Conclusion: SHS exposure at homes is higher among the socioeconomically disadvantaged in the majority of LMICs studied; at workplaces, exposure is higher among the less educated. Pro-equity tobacco control interventions alongside targeted efforts in these groups are recommended to reduce inequalities in SHS exposure.Implications: SHS exposure is higher among the socioeconomically disadvantaged groups in high-income countries. Comprehensive smoke-free policies are pro-equity for certain health outcomes that are strongly influenced by SHS exposure. Using nationally representative Global Adult Tobacco Survey (2008-2011) data from 15 LMICs, we studied socioeconomic inequalities in SHS exposure at homes and at workplaces. The study showed that in most LMICs, SHS exposure at homes is higher among the poor and the less educated. At workplaces, SHS exposure is higher among the less educated groups. Accelerating implementation of pro-equity tobacco control interventions and strengthening of efforts targeted at the socioeconomically disadvantaged groups are needed to reduce inequalities in SHS exposure in LMICs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the case of a Chinese firm that has upgraded to lead firm position in the global biomass power plant industry mainly through acquisitions of technological frontier firms in Denmark. Sustaining the lead firm position was, however, challenged by difficulties in developing innovative capability. Drawing on the literature on (i) firm-level technological capability and (ii) knowledge transfer in international acquisitions, we explain the reasons for insufficient innovative capability building. Based on these empirical findings, we suggest maintaining the existing upgrading framework but applying it analytically in a more flexible manner that avoids linearity, hierarchy and segmentation while stressing the co-existence of and inter-relationships between the different types of upgrading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has over the last two decades been committed to creating a strategic partnership with Latin American states by persistently extending its economic and political involvement in the continent. China's efforts in this regard reflect not only its desire to intensify its economic cooperation and political relations with nations in Latin America, but also its strategic goals of creating its own sphere of influence in the region and enhancing its 'hard' and 'soft' power in order to elevate China's status at the systemic level. With access to Latin American markets, resources and investment destinations, China may sustain its economic and social progress that bases its long cherished dream of restoring its past glory of fuqiang (wealth and power) and rise as a global power capable of reshaping the current world system. The enormous economic benefits deriving from their economic cooperation and trade may persuade Latin American nations to accept the basic premise of China's economic strategy: that China's rise is not a threat, but an opportunity to gain wealth and prosperity. This will help China gain more 'soft' power in and leverage over its economic partners in Latin America, and thereby help it to rise in the global power hierarchy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the advances in the implementation of the Anti-Monopoly Law (‘AML') of China and its enactment in August 2008. Topics include the brief overview of the AML and the approach of Chinese antitrust authorities, the relevant geographic market and whether the high market share confer dominance. Further, importance of factsbased economic analysis that explains market reality to be universal, is mentioned.

A structural factor-augmented VAR model is used to evaluate the role of 'news shocks' in generating the business cycle. We find that existing small-scale VAR models are affected by 'non-fundamentalness' and therefore fail to recover the correct shock and impulse response functions; news shocks have a smaller role in explaining the business cycle than previously found in the literature; their effects are essentially in line with what predicted by standard theories and a substantial fraction of business cycle fluctuations are explained by shocks unrelated to technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earnings inequality in urban China has grown rapidly the past two decades. During the same period, the composition of the urban labor force has been dramatically altered by three large-scale structural changes: (1) the expansion of tertiary education; (2) the decline of state sector employment; and (3) a surge in rural-to-urban migration. In this article, I examine how these institutional and demographic shifts have shaped the recent upswing in earnings inequality. Based on data from two nationally representative surveys, I use variance function regressions to decompose the growth in earnings inequality from 1996 to 2010 into four components: changes in between-group earnings gaps, changes in within-group earnings variation, and two types of composition effects (distribution effect and allocation effect). I also employ counterfactual simulations to evaluate the utility of different explanations. Results show that nearly half of the growth in earnings inequality during this period is due to increases in returns to education, and that the other half can be attributed to compositional changes in the labor force. The composition effects stem chiefly from the expansion of tertiary education and the shrinkage of state sector employment. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The article examines problematic aspects of patronage networks in China and the extent to which they have been fueled by the country's rapid economic growth over a 30-year period. Although many Chinese have confidence in the central government, alliances at the sub-provincial level among government officials, developers, and entrepreneurs have engendered alienation and mistrust by pursuing their own selfish interests to the exclusion of the public's. Consideration is given to incentives these networks have to promote economic growth regardless of its consequences.

Although research has shown that countries' world-systems positions can predict levels of pollution and wealth, there has been little research looking at how consumption in the core triggers both pollution and wealth elsewhere in the world economy. In this article, we track how consumption in the United States, a core country, triggers value added and pollution throughout global commodity chains. We track these distributions for all commodities and services consumed in the United States, then for six commodity groupings, and finally for two case studies, “Motor Vehicles” and “Wearing Apparel.” Our findings show how the production of commodities for US consumption tends to reify inequalities in the world-system: Larger shares of value added (in comparison to shares of pollution) are generally prompted within the core, whereas the opposite effect tends to be experienced in the non-core. We also discuss interesting exceptions to these general trends occurring at different levels of analysis. Finally, we draw special attention to China, the elephant in the room that exhibits both core and peripheral characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

China is the least disadvantaged major economy in the current era of global economic uncertainty. Thus it is becoming the focus of attention of its neighbours and is achieving a prominence in the world political economy unparalleled in its modern history. To a great extent, China's success is the result of 'good neighbour diplomacy' such as 'win-win' and the policies of reform and openness of the past thirty years. However, despite continuity in policy, China's 'peaceful leap forward' since 2008 has changed the context of its external relationships. The increasing asymmetries between China and its neighbours, as well as decreasing asymmetry with the United States, require an adjustment of win-win values beyond mutual benefit to credible reassurance. As China's neighbours become more dependent, they also become more anxious concerning their interests. Meanwhile, China's relative gain on the US requires a different kind of confidence-building diplomacy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the world’s most populous country with the largest aging population and a rapidly growing economy, China is receiving increased attention from both the Chinese government and the governments of other countries that face low fertility and aging problems. This unprecedented shift of demographic structure has repercussions for many aspects of development including economic growth, social welfare, elder care, and other public welfare issues in China. Balancing population aging and economic growth requires innovative strategies and represents both challenges and opportunities for China. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Since the mid-1990s, China has adopted various multilateral policies to shape a more favorable regional environment. The policy of integration, which accommodates both the United States and neighboring countries’ core interests, can succeed in achieving China's goals in regional multilateral cooperation. On the contrary, the policies of dominance, co-governance, and guidance have been suffering from frustration or failure because they threaten the core interests of either the United States or China's regional partners. The efficiency of China's multilateral policies is strongly shaped by two factors: the dominant United States wary of China's rapid rise and the substantial power gaps between the two states. In the coming decade, China may rise to the second rank in terms of economic capabilities, but the United States can still maintain its dominant position. So China will adhere to the policy of integration to maintain its favorable regional environment in East Asia. China's rising position and its integration policy will result in the continuation of competition in the regional cooperation mechanisms and the stability of the US regional alliance system in the decade to come. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

An important aspect of China's economic reforms has been an ambitious policy to develop 100 or so large, internationally competitive business groups. Very little is known about these national champion groups or the benefits to subsidiary firms of belonging to them. This study, building from insights and methods used in existing literature, examines the performance of subsidiaries affiliated to China's national champion groups. Our results find that they perform comparatively well. We discuss possible reasons for this finding and comment more generally on the important role that business groups now play in China's reform and development. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Objectives. This study examined financial transfers from adult children to elderly parents in Hong Kong and tested three hypotheses about the motives for such transfers. We address previous research, suggesting that family financial support for retirees will decline in the coming decades as a consequence of the reduction in the fertility rate; we also examine whether financial transfers are a function of the number of adult children in the family. Methods. We used multiple regression models based on data from a representative sample of parents aged 60 years and older to identify the correlates of the amount of transfers from adult children to their elderly parents. Results. We found evidence for the hypothesis that upstream transfers to elderly parents are their way of withdrawing savings from a “support bank” in which they made contribution for their children’s education earlier in life and that transfers are altruistic in nature, but our results provide only moderate support to the old age security hypothesis that perceives family as a source of capital. Discussion. The number of children has a ceiling effect on transfers, which calls into question common assumptions about the extent to which the decline in fertility will pose a severe threat to the extent of familial support of older persons over the coming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The article discusses the nature of religion in China under the Communist regime, with particular focus given to attempts to suppress and eradicate religious practice in the nation. Efforts of the Chinese government to restrict and regulate religious practices are examined and replacements for religious groups including political groups and personality cults are explored. The politics of religion, the nature of religious economies, and the nature of supply and demand applied to regulated religions are discussed. The shortage economy of religion in China and its relation to state sanctioned atheism is also explored.

China's and Japan's role in San Francisco's Panama-Pacific International Exposition demonstrates that although both nations sought to use the fair to construct themselves as progressive, modern nations, they faced entrenched anti-Asian racism in California, which contributed to the production of contradictory representations of the Chinese and Japanese at the fair. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This essay analyzes the regional and global implications of different enlargement formulations of the European Union (EU) during the first half of the twenty-first century by (1) assessing the consequences of expanded EU membership with varying enlargement scenarios regarding global power distributions, (2) considering the implications of a drift between the United States and the EU as China reaches parity with the West, and (3) examining the implications of EU enlargement for regional stability in the Middle East as a consequence of Turkey's entry into or rejection by the EU. The findings reaffirm earlier results that China is expected to reach parity with the United States in 2025–2030 and move ahead to be the largest economy in the world. The results for the EU show that, regardless of its enlargement plans, it will fall behind the other giants, becoming the third largest economy. Part of the expected decline in its GDP share can be offset by adding Turkey, and perhaps Russia, to the Union. We also find that Turkey's inclusion into the EU will bring stability to the Middle East. Moreover, we observe that the relationship between Iran and Turkey is one with a high probability of conflict and that it will intensify very quickly over time. With Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons, this dyad is likely to become more conflictual before Iran establishes clear superiority. Turkey's membership in the EU would remove Iran's growing challenge to the volatile Middle East. With Turkey in the EU, parity between Iran and Turkey would disappear and Iran could no longer project hostility against the latter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article is concerned with the interaction of regulated efficiency and World Trade Organization (WTO) accession and its impact on China's motor vehicle sector. The analysis is conducted using a 23 sector-25 region computable general equilibrium model. Regulatory reform and internal restructuring are found to be critical. Restructuring is represented by a cost reduction following from consolidation and rationalization that moves costs toward global norms. Without restructuring, WTO accession means a surge of final imports, though imports of parts could well fall as production moves offshore. However, with restructuring, the final assembly industry can be made competitive by world standards, with a strengthened position for the industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data from China's national rural and urban household surveys are used to measure and explain the welfare impacts of changes in goods and factor prices attributable to accession to the World Trade Organization. The price changes are estimated separately using a general equilibrium model to capture both direct and indirect effects of the initial tariff changes. The welfare impacts are first-order approximations based on a household model incorporating own-production activities calibrated to household-level data and imposing minimum aggregation. The results show negligible impacts on inequality and poverty in the aggregate. However, diverse impacts emerge across household types and regions, associated with heterogeneity in consumption behavior and income sources, with possible implications for compensatory policy responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights' (ICESCR) allegedly skewed treatment and interpretation of economic human rights issues. Topics include the definition of the parameters of available resources in Hong Kong, China and the Democratic Republic of Congo, issues of globalisation in Mexico's addition to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and the implementation of the minimum wage with regards to the guarantee of a decent living.

Words and the concepts they express exert a powerful influence on political debate and policy decisions in transition economies. In this introductory essay, the principal architect of the first radical reform programme in Europe after the fall of the Berlin Wall develops a lexicon of common fallacies in the political debate, and introduces many of the main themes of the volume. One common fallacy is that of country-specificity: 'Ukraine is different; what worked or did not work elsewhere is not relevant here.' Some countries may indeed have specific economic problems (viz the huge military-industrial sector in Ukraine), but economic theory is clear about which policies are best for basic problems: macroeconomic stabilization as the appropriate response to hyperinflation; price liberalization anti liberalization of supply are the prescribed therapy for massive shortages, etc. So there are useful lessons to be learned from prior experience. By the same token, erroneous interpretation of those experiences can give credence to mistaken policy arguments. For example, the argument that whatever has been done before in the West must be right is, itself clearly wrong. Similarly, Balcerowicz argues that China's success does not prove the universal merits of gradualism; the agricultural reforms of the late 1970s in China were in practice surprisingly radical. The essay identifies many other pitfalls in reasoning about transition experience, several having to do with the failure to apply ceteris paribus reasoning. For example, the fall in output in 1991 in all the countries connected with the former Soviet Union (including Finland) was caused in large part by the collapse of their trade with the Union, and certainly not exclusively by the policies they followed. There are numerous other examples. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents a comparative economic history of China and India and their response to economic challenge. Together, the population of the two countries comprises one-third of the world population. Today the two countries are economically in an underdeveloped stage, with low per capita income but with several impressive scientific and technological achievements. Many of the facts and issues about these two countries are gigantic, that is, population, size, history, and even the problems and complexities. But China and India did not respond to the forces of the industrial revolution that in Europe transformed nations from poor peasant societies to modern developed ones. During the course of a century and a half they failed to exploit the epochal innovations of modern economic growth. These two then-advanced nations failed to meet the challenge of modern economic growth. At the same time, both Governments did not have a wide consensus supporting them, and hence, even in the raising of resources to meet administrative expenses, coercion had to be exercised. By 1950, these factors led to a major transfer of power in the two countries. For different reasons, but with the same result, the contact of China and India with the West remains a tragic case of missed opportunity.