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This paper proposes a coherent multi-population approach to mortality forecasting for less developed countries. The majority of these countries have witnessed faster mortality declines among the young and the working age populations during the past few decades, whereas in the more developed countries, the contemporary mortality declines have been more substantial among the elders. Along with the socioeconomic developments, the mortality patterns of the less developed countries may become closer to those of the more developed countries. As a consequence, forecasting the long-term mortality of a less developed country by simply extrapolating its historical patterns might lead to implausible results. As an alternative, this paper proposes to incorporate the mortality patterns of a group of more developed countries as the benchmark to improve the forecast for a less developed one. With long-term, between-country coherence in mind, we allow the less developed country's age-specific mortality improvement rates to gradually converge with those of the benchmark countries during the projection phase. Further, we employ a data-driven, threshold hitting approach to control the speed of this convergence. Our method is applied to China, Brazil, and Nigeria. We conclude that taking into account the gradual convergence of mortality patterns can lead to more reasonable long-term forecasts for less developed countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

São Paulo is the most populous state in Brazil, home to around 22% of the country's population. The total number of Covid-19-infected people in São Paulo has reached more than 1 million, while its total death toll stands at 25% of all the country's fatalities. Joining the Brazilian academia efforts in the fight against Covid-19, in this paper we describe a unified framework for monitoring and forecasting the Covid-19 progress in the state of São Paulo. More specifically, a freely available, online platform to collect and exploit Covid-19 time-series data is presented, supporting decision-makers while still allowing the general public to interact with data from different regions of the state. Moreover, a novel forecasting data-driven method has also been proposed, by combining the so-called Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased model with machine learning strategies to better fit the mathematical model's coefficients for predicting Infections, Recoveries, Deaths, and Viral Reproduction Numbers. We show that the obtained predictor is capable of dealing with badly conditioned data samples while still delivering accurate 10-day predictions. Our integrated computational system can be used for guiding government actions mainly in two basic aspects: real-time data assessment and dynamic predictions of Covid-19 curves for different regions of the state. We extend our analysis and investigation to inspect the virus spreading in Brazil in its regions. Finally, experiments involving the Covid-19 advance in other countries are also given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Brazilian Amazon has a specific epidemiological profile for cryptococcosis, considering its social and economic inequality, health reality, and low access to health services. Furthermore, Brazil and Colombia have the highest cryptococcosis incidence rates in Latin America. In this study, we identified the areas of risk for cryptococcosis in the state of Pará in the Brazilian Amazon. This was an ecological study of patients admitted to a referral hospital from 2008 to 2018, aged 13 years or older, and of both sexes. The spatial distribution was determined using ArcGis 10.3.1 software. Cryptococcosis was confirmed in 272 cases. The incidence rate was 3.41 cases/100,000 inhabitants. Spatial distribution was concentrated in the Metropolitana de Belém, Nordeste Paraense, and Marajó mesoregions. The sociodemographic profile consisted of 62% men, aged between 24 and 34 years (36%), without completed secondary education (64.7%), and with occupations varying between agricultural activities (13.8%) and household activities (22%). The mean hospitalization time was 39 days; the prevalent clinical form was neurological (89.7%). The mortality rate among patients with cryptococcosis was up to 40%. Knowledge of the real magnitude of the disease in the Brazilian Amazon makes it possible to identify areas with the greatest risks and to propose control and epidemiological surveillance programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Northeast region of Brazil (NEB) has a high rate of deaths from lightning strikes (18% of the country's total). The region has states, such as Piauí, with high mortality rates (1.8 deaths per million), much higher than the national rate (0.8) and the NEB rate (0.5). In this sense, the present work analyzes the microphysical characteristics of clouds with and without the occurrence of total lightning. For this purpose, data from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS), TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR), aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite from 1998 to 2013 were used. The TRMM data were analyzed to establish a relationship between the occurrence of lightning and the clouds' microphysical characteristics, comparing them as a function of lightning occurrence classes, spatial location and atmospheric profiles. A higher lightning occurrence is associated with higher values of ice water path (>38.9 kg m−2), rain water path (>2 kg m−2), convective precipitation (>5 mm h−1) and surface precipitation (>7 mm h−1), in addition to slightly higher freezing level height values. Reflectivity observations (>36 dBZ) demonstrated typical convective profile curves, with higher values associated with classes with higher lightning densities (class with more than 6.8 flash km−2 year−1). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]