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This paper presents a novel approach to estimating short-term production of wind farms, which are made up of numerous turbine generators. It harnesses the power of big data through a blend of data-driven and model-based methods. Specifically, it combines an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for immediate future predictions of wind turbine power output with a stochastic model for dependability, using Hybrid Reliability Block Diagrams. A thorough state-of-the-art review has been conducted in order to demonstrate the applicability of an ANN for non-linear stochastic problems of energy or power forecast estimation. The study leverages an innovative cluster analysis to group wind turbines and reduce the computational effort of the ANN, with a dependability model that improves the accuracy of the data-driven output estimation. Therefore, the main novelty is the employment of a hybrid model that combines an ANN with a dependability stochastic model that accounts for the realistic operational scenarios of wind turbines, including their susceptibility to random shutdowns This approach marks a significant advancement in the field, introducing a methodology which can aid the design and the power production forecast. The research has been applied to a case study of a 24 MW wind farm located in the south of Italy, characterized by 28 turbines. The findings demonstrate that the integrated model significantly enhances short-term wind-energy production estimation, achieving a 480% improvement in accuracy over the solo-clustering approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To find the optimal design for an engineering object, thousands of (or even more) simulations should be implemented to obtain the outcome data for the variously designed objects. However, repeating simulations this many times is impossible because a typical simulation is a computationally expensive task. Instead of conducting all the required simulations, a more efficient way is predicting the outcome from the approximation model, called the surrogate model. The response surface method (RSM) with polynomials and artificial neural network (ANN) are the most prominent methods in constructing a surrogate model in the engineering fields. In this study, the prediction accuracy of the surrogate models computed by using an RSM and ANN is compared with several datasets showing different complexities. This comparison is investigated by constructing the surrogate models in predicting aerodynamic performance of a wind turbine airfoil. In the current paper, it is verified that the prediction accuracy of the ANN-computed surrogate model is higher than the RSM-computed one when the datasets have a high level of complexity, but the opposite phenomenon is observed if the datasets have a low level of complexity. When the surrogate models with different accuracies are used to enhance the performance of a wind turbine airfoil, the surrogate model with a high level of accuracy produces the optimal design, showing a high performance improvement. The current study is expected to give guidance on how to properly choose between an RSM and ANN to construct a highly accurate surrogate model that can help in finding a design with a high performance improvement during the optimization process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the size and weight of blades increase with the recent trend toward larger wind turbines, it is important to ensure the structural integrity of the blades. For this reason, the blade consists of an upper and lower skin that receives the load directly, a shear web that supports the two skins, and a spar cap that connects the skin and the shear web. Loads generated during the operation of the wind turbine can cause debonding damage on the spar cap-shear web joints. This may change the structural stiffness of the blade and lead to a lack of integrity; therefore, it would be beneficial to be able to identify possible damage in advance. In this paper we present a model to identify debonding damage based on natural frequency. This was carried out by modeling 1105 different debonding damages, which were classified by configuration type, location, and length. After that, the natural frequencies, due to the debonding damage of the blades, were obtained through modal analysis using FE analysis. Finally, an artificial neural network was used to study the relationship between debonding damage and the natural frequencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Renewable energy is being adopted worldwide, and the proportion of offshore wind turbines is increasing. Offshore wind turbines operate in harsh weather conditions, resulting in various failures and high maintenance costs. In this paper, a condition diagnosis model for condition monitoring of an offshore wind turbine has been developed. The generator, main bearing, pitch system, and yaw system were selected as components subject to the condition monitoring by considering the failure rate and downtime of the wind turbine. The condition diagnosis model works by comparing real-time and predictive operating data of the wind turbine, and about four years of Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) data from a 2 MW wind turbine was used to develop the model. A deep neural network and an artificial neural network were used as machine learning to predict the operational data in the condition diagnosis model, and a confusion matrix was used to measure the accuracy of the failure determination. As a result of the condition monitoring derived by inputting SCADA data to the designed system, it was possible to maintain the failure determination accuracy of more than 90%. The proposed condition monitoring system will be effectively utilized for the maintenance of wind turbines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deployment of large-scale wind turbines requires sophisticated operation and maintenance strategies to ensure the devices are safe, profitable and cost-effective. Prognostics aims to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of physical systems based on condition measurements. Analyzing condition monitoring data, implementing diagnostic techniques and using machinery prognostic algorithms will bring about accurate estimation of the remaining life and possible failures that may occur. This paper proposes to combine two supervised machine learning techniques, namely, regression model and multilayer artificial neural network model, to predict the RUL of an operational wind turbine gearbox using vibration measurements. Root Mean Square (RMS), Kurtosis (KU) and Energy Index (EI) were analysed to define the bearing failure stages. The proposed methodology was evaluated through a case study involving vibration measurements of a high-speed shaft bearing used in a wind turbine gearbox. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Components of rotating machines, such as shafts, bearings and gears are subject to performance degradation, which if left unattended could lead to failure or breakdown of the entire system. Analyzing condition monitoring data, implementing diagnostic techniques and using machinery prognostic algorithms will bring about accurate estimation of the remaining life and possible failures that may occur. This paper proposes a combination of two supervised machine learning techniques; namely, the regression model and multilayer artificial neural network model, to predict the remaining useful life of rolling element bearings. Root mean square and Kurtosis were analyzed to define the bearing failure stages. The proposed methodology was validated through two case studies involving vibration measurements of an operational wind turbine gearbox and a split cylindrical roller bearing in a test rig. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]