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Environmental factors, such as weather, trees, and animals, are major causes of power outages in electric utility distribution systems. Of these factors, wind and lightning have the most significant impacts. The objective of this paper is to investigate models to estimate wind and lighting related outages. Such estimation models hold the potential for lowering operational costs and reducing customer downtime. This paper proposes an ensemble learning approach based on a boosting algorithm, AdaBoost^+, for estimation of weather-caused power outages. Effectiveness of the model is evaluated using actual data, which comprised of weather data and recorded outages for four cities of different sizes in Kansas. The proposed ensemble model is compared with previously presented regression, neural network, and mixture of experts models. The results clearly show that AdaBoost^+ estimates outages with greater accuracy than the other models for all four data sets. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper extends previous research on using a Bayesian network model to investigate impacts of time (month) and weather (number of fair weather days in a week) on animal-related outages in distribution systems. Outage history (outages in the previous week) is included as an additional input to the model, and inputs and outputs are classified systematically to reduce errors in estimates of outputs. Conditional probability table obtained from the historical data are used to estimate weekly animal-related outages which is followed by a Monte Carlo simulation to find estimates of mean and confidence limits for monthly animal-related outages. Comparison of results obtained for four cities of different sizes in Kansas with those obtained using a hybrid wavelet/neural network model shows consistency between the two models. The methodology presented in this paper is simple to implement and useful for the utilities for year-end analysis of the outage data to identify specific reliability-related concerns. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Cascading outages in power systems can lead to major power disruptions and blackouts and involve a large number of different mechanisms. The typical development of a cascading outage can be split in two phases with different dominant cascading mechanisms. As a power system is usually operated in N-1 security, an initiating contingency cannot entail a fast collapse of the grid. However, it can trigger a thermal transient, increasing significantly the likelihood of additional contingencies, in a “slow cascade.” The loss of additional elements can then trigger an electrical instability. This is the origin of the subsequent “fast cascade,” where a rapid succession of events can lead to a major power disruption. Several models of probabilistic simulations exist, but they tend to focus either on the slow cascade or on the fast cascade, according to mechanisms considered, and rarely on both. We propose in this paper a decomposition of the analysis in two levels, able to combine probabilistic simulations for the slow and the fast cascades. These two levels correspond to these two typical phases of a cascading outage. Models are developed for each of these phases. A simplification of the overall methodology is applied to two test systems to illustrate the concept. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With smart fault indicators (SFIs) being widely deployed in distribution networks, availability of SFIs statuses and their current measurement provides an opportunity to locate distribution system faulted line sections in real time. However, the integrity of SFIs data together with complex fault scenarios poses a challenge for fault diagnosis, especially with the presence of distributed generators (DGs). To solve this issue, this paper proposes a new method based on mixed integer linear programming (MILP) for identification of the faulted line sections using incomplete and incorrect SFIs statuses. By minimizing the discrepancy between the expected SFI statuses and the available evidence at the distribution operating center, the proposed approach is able to handle complex fault scenarios with multiple faults and failures or malfunctions of SFIs. When DGs are present, the current measurement of SFIs and their statuses are jointly used. The result is a robust algorithm for detection of faulted line sections of distribution systems with DGs in real time. In addition, a new technique is proposed to convert nonlinear logical constraints into a linear combination of decision variables. The resulting linearity of the developed optimization model ensures its optimality. Simulation results based on a utility feeder demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a stochastic framework to enhance the reliability and operability of wind integration using energy storage systems. A genetic algorithm (GA)-based optimization approach is used together with a probabilistic optimal power flow (POPF) to optimally place and adequately size the energy storage. The optimization scheme minimizes the sum of operation and interrupted-load costs over a planning period. Historical wind speed, load and equipment failure data are used to stochastically model the wind generation, load and equipment availability. Using Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering, wind and load samples are grouped into 40 clusters of days with similar sample points to account for seasonal variations. The IEEE 24-bus system (RTS) is used to evaluate the performance of the proposed method and realize the maximum achievable reliability level. A cost-benefit analysis compares storage technologies and conventional gas-fired alternatives to reliably and efficiently integrate different wind penetration levels and determine the most economical design. Storage distribution and its effect on performance enhancement of wind integration are examined for higher wind penetrations. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Island-capable microgrids can potentially improve customer reliability, but protection-related issues can adversely affect this reliability benefit. At the same time, average annualized indices often do not effectively convey a complete picture of load-point reliabilities in microgrids integrated with multiple weather-dependent microsources. The primary goal of this work is to investigate the impacts of protection system and operating conditions on the reliability indices of a microgrid. The proposed method utilizes a short-term outage model that quantifies the relationship between state variables and the outage rate of component. A hybrid approach is proposed, which combines scenario selection and enumerative analysis. Simulations on a test system illustrate the dependence of operational reliability on factors such as local meteorological conditions, correlation between variable generation and loads, as well as the effects of protection system operations. Finally, some recommendations on the parameter settings of protection system are provided to enhance the system reliability. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The IEEE Standard 1366-2003-2.5 Beta Methodology was developed to provide a methodology to define a Major Event Day (MED) with respect to distribution reliability performance. The method applies to utilities experiencing interruptions every day or just some days of the year. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]