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Adding capacity is one policy mechanism to alleviate congestion. However, the empirical evidence strongly suggests that additional capacity only makes congestion worse. This study analyzes the differential effects of additional freeway capacity versus additional arterial capacity on vehicle kilometers of travel (VKT) in metropolitan areas across the U.S. The analysis uses vehicle data and household data from the 2001 and the 2009 National Household Travel Surveys (NHTS) and includes stock and flow measures of road capacity, road congestion, commuter demand, and economic growth for metropolitan areas. Taking into account differences between metropolitan areas on each measure, the study adopts a novel multilevel model approach to estimate how additional capacity affects VKT. Results indicate that adding more arterial capacity slightly decreases VKT over a lag period from six years (1995 to 2001) to eight years (2001 to 2009), probably because adding arterials shortens routes between origins and destinations more so than adding freeways. Consistent with expectations, VKT is lower in more congested metropolitan areas, and in metropolitan areas that got more congested. Results also indicate that rebound effects (higher fuel-economy vehicles are driven much more than lower fuel-economy vehicles) will at least partially offset the demand management benefits of (gasoline) price sensitivity (higher gasoline prices decrease VKT). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A hybrid observer merging PWSL modeling and Kalman filter estimator is proposed • Two new kNN-based mechanisms for detecting road traffic congestion are designed. • Measurements from the four-lanes SR-60 freeway in California are used for validation. • The detection results show the superior performance of the new coupled kNN-ES mechanism. A systematic approach for monitoring road traffic congestion is developed to improve safety and traffic management. To achieve this purpose, an improved observer merging the benefits of a piecewise switched linear traffic (PWSL) modeling approach and Kalman filter (KF) is introduced. The PWSL-KF observer is utilized as a virtual sensor to emulate the traffic evolution in free-flow mode. In the proposed approach, residuals from the PWSL-KF model are used as the input to k-nearest neighbors (kNN) schemes for congestion detection. Here, kNN-based Shewhart and exponential smoothing schemes are designed for discovering the traffic congestions. The proposed detectors merge the desirable properties of kNN to appropriately separating normal from abnormal features and the capability of the monitoring schemes to better identify traffic congestions. In addition, kernel density estimation has been utilized to set nonparametric control limits of the proposed detectors and compared them with their parametric counterparts. Tests on traffic measurements from the four-lane State Route 60 in California freeways show the effectiveness of the PWSL-KF-based kNN methods in supervising traffic congestions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]