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Hydrogen is a type of clean secondary energy, and the hydrogen energy supply is vital to regional energy development. Guangdong is at the forefront of hydrogen energy deployment in China, and aims to achieve peak carbon by 2030. However, hydrogen production research is challenging due to complex technical routes, technical maturity levels, life-cycle carbon emissions, and costs. Multi-time-scale research is necessary to explore optimal production paths and their contributions to CO 2 emission reduction. This study discussed key technologies and the technical maturity of five hydrogen production routes: production from industrial byproducts and coal, wind, hydro-, and photovoltaic power. Policy scenarios were designed to investigate the potential of these routes and technology deployment intensity under medium- and long-term scenarios. This paper proposes a roadmap for hydrogen development and provides a reference for hydrogen production planning in Guangdong. This methodology can be applied in other regions for hydrogen energy development research. • Key technology maturity of the hydrogen production routes was evaluated. • Roadmap of hydrogen production in Guangdong Province was designed. • A method for research of hydrogen supply scenarios was proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The urgency of addressing climate change and reducing carbon emissions necessitates the establishment of effective carbon markets. Our paper focuses on assessing and interpreting the efficiency of carbon markets, which is a crucial aspect of their successful implementation. We selected Hubei, Shenzhen, and Guangdong carbon pilots as examples to measure their dynamic information efficiency by combining the rolling time window and wild-bootstrap variance ratio test. Furthermore, we combined SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and Extra Trees (ET) regressor to reveal the nonlinear relationship between market performance and efficiency. Our findings highlight the time-varying nature of carbon market efficiency and reveal that China's carbon market has not yet achieved stable weak-form efficiency. Additionally, we identified excessive trading volume volatility as a significant constraint on market efficiency, while the trading volume itself exhibits weak explanatory power. Our proposed hybrid model demonstrates superior predictive and explanatory capabilities, offering regulators a valuable tool for continuously monitoring and interpreting carbon market efficiency. Finally, we suggested that reducing trading volume volatility should be a major concern for regulators to optimize market operations at present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A method based on Neural Network is proposed for provincial-level CO 2 emissions estimation. • An autoencoder is proposed to downscale the provincial-level CO 2 emissions to city-level. • A complete city-level CO 2 emissions inventory of GBA and surrounding cities is complied. • Spatial dependence and agglomeration characteristics of CO 2 emissions are analyzed. • Spatio-temporal heterogeneity of factors affecting CO 2 emissions is investigated. Significant attention has been given to the issue of CO 2 emissions worldwide, especially for China as the largest emitter. Cities, as the main carriers of China's economic development, account for up to 85 % of CO 2 emissions from energy use in the country. The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) and surrounding cities play important leading roles in low-carbon development. However, compiling city-level CO 2 emissions is challenging due to the limited availability of data. In this paper, a new idea is proposed by using SSA-BP for estimating provincial-level CO 2 emissions and downscaling provincial-level CO 2 emissions to city-level CO 2 emissions by reconstructing missing values of city-level CO 2 emissions with an autoencoder. This study compiles a city-level CO 2 emissions inventory and conducts a spatio-temporal analysis of CO 2 emissions in the GBA and surrounding cities. The results show that CO 2 emissions exhibit a spatial distribution pattern with spatial dependence. Furthermore, according to the analysis of spatio-temporal heterogeneity, GDP influenced CO 2 emissions the most within the five influencing factors, and the influences of GDP, population, and energy intensity were mainly positive, while the influence of patents was mainly negative, and that of trade was both positive and negative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the primary source sector of carbon emissions, the power industry's green innovation is an indispensable component of China's low-carbon transformation. This paper took China's Carbon Emission Trading Scheme as a quasi-natural experience and adopted the synthetic control method to evaluate the impact of Carbon Emission Trading Scheme pilot policy on power industry's green innovation based on the provincial industrial level data. Furthermore, this paper examined the impact mechanisms of Carbon Emission Trading Scheme on the power industry's green innovation through policy comparison, moderating and mediating effect analyses. The research findings show that: 1) there is heterogeneity in Carbon Emission Trading Scheme's effectiveness in inducing green innovation in China, the power industry only in Beijing and Guangdong has been significantly promoted, while other pilots have not; 2) the success of Beijing and Guangdong can be attributed to distinctive features of their carbon market and power industry, including the refined quota accounting mechanism, the application of paid quota allocation, the larger enterprise scale and more research and development investment; 3) enterprise scale and research and development investment have positive moderating effect and mediating effect in the promotional effect of the Carbon Emission Trading Scheme on green innovation respectively. Finally, some policy recommendations are put forward to promote the power industry's green innovation and carbon market construction. • Evaluate the impact of China's CETS on the power industry's green innovation in each pilot. • The CETS effects among pilots are heterogeneous, only significant in Beijing and Guangdong. • Rational CETS mechanism design could improve the power industry's green innovation. • Enterprise scale and R&D investment positively moderate and mediate the CETS effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of China's dual‑carbon goals and electricity market reforms, the high penetration of renewable energy sources (RES) in a single microgrid (MG) imposes challenges to its flexible operation. This paper addresses the cooperation within a virtual power plant (VPP) aggregated by multiple MGs. The VPP, managed by the VPP operator, acts as an intermediate entity to facilitate MGs' economic and low-carbon operation. To ensure the interests of various stakeholders in the VPP, this work proposes a low carbon oriented tri-stage collaborative energy management framework. In the 1st stage, the day-ahead optimal scheduling of individual MGs and the bidding strategy of the VPP operator are modeled, where an internal pricing method is incorporated. The 2nd stage addresses the real-time redispatch of the VPP operator using a receding horizon-based model predictive control (MPC) solution. This aims to satisfy the real-time operational requirements of MGs and reduce adjustment costs. Furthermore, in the 3rd stage, a penalty allocation mechanism is established for MGs based on their forecasting errors, to protect the VPP operator's interests. The effectiveness of the proposed solution is evaluated through comparative simulations in the context of the Guangdong electricity market. • The virtual power plant (VPP) aggregated by multiple microgrids (MG) is studied. • The quantification of carbon emission is involved in the whole scheduling process. • An peer-to-peer (P2P) electricity trading pricing method is improved and adopted. • A penalty allocation mechanism is proposed to guarantee interests of each entity. • The Guangdong electricity market is considered as the market mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A source–sink matching LCA–MILP method is proposed. • The unit cost of net CO 2 reduction ranges from 237.81 CNY/t to 253.51 CNY/t. • In Guangdong Province, China, the distribution of the CCUS supply chain shows a pattern of spreading from coastal to inland regions as the scale increases. • The implementation of carbon trading policies effectively reduces the costs of CO 2 emissions reduction initiatives. • Monte Carlo simulation is performed to evaluate the uncertainty in the supply chain. Carbon capture utilization and storage technology has been identified as a key solution for limiting the global temperature increase to 2 °C from preindustrial levels. In this study, we develop a source–sink matching mixed-integer linear programming model to obtain an optimal cost for the Carbon capture utilization and storage supply chain and evaluate the environmental benefits using life cycle assessment. Guangdong Province, China, with annual CO 2 emissions of 585 Mt, is chosen as the case study for this paper. The results show that the deployment of the carbon capture utilization and storage supply chain follows a pattern of spreading from coastal to inland regions as the CO 2 net reduction rate increases. Moreover, the unit cost of CO 2 reduction increases with the CO 2 reduction rate, specifically, from 237.81 Yuan per ton to 253.51 Yuan per ton as the CO 2 reduction rate increases from 10% to 60%. The CO 2 -derived methanol is not economically viable, while having low implied carbon emissions, it has approximately 2.5 times the unit cost of traditional methanol. We recommend promoting carbon trading due to its effectiveness in reducing the unit abatement cost. Additionally, the carbon price level of 220 Yuan/t can achieve a profitable supply chain at various reduction rates. However, carbon labeling subsidies have little effect on reducing methanol production costs. The 95% confidence intervals for unit abatement costs obtained from Monte Carlo simulations can provide robust support for policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A novel carbon emission reduction(CER) methodology is proposed. • The Black-Scholes mode is introduced to measure carbon emission option pricing. • Case studies of campus grid CER assessment are conducted in Shenzhen. • Methods and policy suggestions of CER are given for grid integration of EVs. China, as the world's largest emitter of carbon emissions, has implemented carbon markets to reduce carbon emissions, but the economic feasibility of integrating electric vehicles (EVs) into these markets remains uncertain. To address this challenge, we propose a novel methodology for grid integration of EVs based on the Shenzhen carbon inclusive management measures. Our proposed methodology can optimize EV charging schedules based on carbon emission prices and improve the economic feasibility of low-carbon transitions through EVs in China. We incorporate the Black-Scholes model to measure carbon emission option pricing and develop an optimal bidding strategy that considers spatiotemporal uncertainties of EVs and electricity markets. We use numerical simulations with real-world data from Shenzhen carbon emission market and Guangdong electricity market to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methodology. Results reveal that scheduling 100 EVs' charging/discharging behavior properly can generate a revenue of 2379.4 yuan for the distribution system operator, while the revenue for carbon emission reduction (CER) is only 9.35 yuan. This paper demonstrates that the potential revenue of CER may be substantially based on the future scenario for the carbon emission market. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders seeking to reduce carbon emissions in China's electricity sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) is one of the most important instruments introduced to meet carbon neutral targets internationally. To reduce carbon emissions, China has established eight regional ETS since 2013 to reduce carbon emissions. However, significant heterogeneities exist across the eight pilots, resulting in distinctively different carbon price movements. Traded as a financial asset, carbon allowance is vulnerable to internal and external shocks. Though carbon prices have been fluctuating fiercely since the inception of the carbon market, little is known about potential carbon price bubbles in any of these pilots. To this end, this paper resorts to the generalized sup Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) test, which allows the detection of multiple bubbles, as well as the date stamping of bubbles in carbon prices. For the first time, price bubbles are found in the Chinese carbon markets. The empirical results find three bubbles in Guangdong pilot, two bubbles in Tianjin pilot, and one bubble in Hubei pilot. These explosive episodes are closely related to immature market mechanisms and policy implementations. The results provide insightful implications for the upcoming unified national carbon market. • This paper detects the carbon price bubbles in Chinese markets. • Multiple bubbles exist in different pilots. • Not all pilots encounter bubbles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China is pursuing aggressive action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from its coal-dominated electric power system. Two key strategies are power market reform and carbon pricing. This paper investigates the combined effects of these two strategies in reducing CO 2 emissions from power system operations. We develop an economic dispatch model to simulate hourly power supply system operation in China Southern Power Grid in 2018 under fifteen carbon pricing scenarios; these reflect a wide range of policy ambition, from today's carbon prices to much higher ones that aim to instigate aggressive emission mitigation. Our results show that moderate carbon pricing alone is insufficient to effectively reduce CO 2 emissions without concurrent power market reform. With power market reform and as carbon prices increase, large coal units supplemented by energy storage witness higher use rates as they supplant smaller coal-fired generators, until a carbon price of 300 RMB/TCO 2 phases out coal use in favor of natural gas. Only at carbon prices higher than 300 RMB/TCO 2 do emissions begin to decrease appreciably. Geographic disparities emerge among the five provinces that comprise the Southern Power Grid, with Guangdong witnessing the most CO 2 emission reduction at high carbon prices, while emission reductions in other provinces are negligible. Carbon pricing also dramatically increases total power system costs, even at low carbon prices. Our results show the necessity of introducing power market reform and carbon pricing policies concurrently if the goal is to reduce CO 2 emissions, with the ultimate goal being a carbon price significantly greater than 300 RMB/TCO 2. Because both options will be necessary, our research maps a path to deep emission reductions in China Southern Power Grid for investors, analysts, and policy makers as discussions regarding both reforms accelerate. • We assess combined effects of carbon pricing and power market reform in China. • Carbon pricing cannot reduce CO 2 emissions without power market reform. • CO 2 reductions from carbon pricing are negligible until prices of 300 RMB/TCO 2. • Even with low carbon prices, power supply system cost increase appreciably. • Existing system can only achieve shallow decarbonization, even at 1000RMB/TCO 2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the risk spillover effect between the carbon market and the stock market in China and the role of corporate social responsibility (CSR) on this effect. Employing Beijing, Hubei, and Guangdong carbon markets, we apply time-domain and frequency-domain spillover approaches and find that during the Chinese stock market crisis in 2015, risk spillovers from the stock market to the carbon market were more pronounced. Additionally, CSR firms are more dominant as information transmitters than those non-CSR (NCSR) firms in the carbon market. However, plausibly, due to the infancy of carbon trading, our results show that the level of connectedness between the carbon market and the stock market in China is relatively low. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a new clean and sustainable energy that can reduce carbon emissions, offshore wind energy has received much more attention in recent years. In response to the complexity and flexibility issues in the decision-making process of offshore wind power investment, this paper proposes an investment decision framework based on a bidimensional binominal lattice that embeds deferral options, aiming to derive the appropriate development timing and investment potential for corporate investors in uncertain environment of market and technological development. And the investment model embedding revenue from carbon emission reduction highlights the advantages of clean energy. Furthermore, we creatively compare the policy effects of three subsidy schemes using the model as a policy analysis tool and use scenario analysis to simulate the impacts of dynamic adjustments in subsidies on investment decisions. For the case of an offshore wind power plant in Guangdong province, China, we find that the local government has to provide a subsidy of 0.11 CNY/kWh to allow the project to be profitable. In the absence of subsidies, however, it is preferable to defer the decision of investment with a wait-and-see attitude. Given the same total government financial input, we find that it will be more beneficial for the government to provide R&D subsidy than electricity tariff subsidy and operation subsidy in terms of long-term sustainable development. Our findings also demonstrate that considerations in the carbon trading market will also contribute to the development of offshore wind power. The conclusions of this article can provide valuable guidelines for corporate investors to adjust the appropriate development timing and for policymakers to optimize subsidy allocation, so as to promote the healthy development of offshore wind power and low-carbon transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• It evaluates the effect of China's ETS on non-fossil energy development. • It analyzes ETS's effects from energy type, pilot, and pilot-energy type aspects. • The ETS has the most significant promoting effect on hydropower and photovoltaics. • Carbon price plays a positive role in moderating the effect of China's ETS. Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) can internalize the environmental costs of fossil energy consumption and encourage enterprises to consume non-fossil energy, which is crucial for People's Republic of China (PRC) to achieve the contribution target of the Paris Agreement cost-effectively. However, whether the ETS in PRC can promote non-fossil energy development remains to be answered. This paper uses a difference-in-differences model to evaluate the effect of the ETS on non-fossil energy development in PRC. Using provincial monthly panel data from January 2004 to December 2019, we find that (1) the ETS has significantly promoted non-fossil energy development in PRC, increasing the monthly average share of non-fossil energy power generation in total power generation by 2.326 percentage points, which has been verified by a series of robustness tests. (2) The effect of the ETS on non-fossil energy development is heterogeneous by energy type, pilot region, and pilot-energy type. The ETS has significantly increased the share of hydropower and photovoltaic power generation, and has significantly promoted non-fossil energy development in Guangdong; meanwhile, the ETS has significantly increased the share of hydropower and nuclear power in Guangdong, and the share of wind power and photovoltaic power in Hubei. (3) The higher the carbon price, the greater the role of the ETS in promoting non fossil energy development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a new prediction method incorporating a set of measuring models applicable to the financing efficiency of China's carbon market to quantify such market's maturity, trading risk coefficient, and financing income. Our theoretical analysis indicates that the price of carbon emission quota essentially affects the financing efficiency of carbon market. While a robust safeguard measure to obtain a respectable income from carbon market financing is the long-term average quota price exceeding the initial quota price. Empirical findings derived from China's emissions trading scheme pilots reveal that these pilots can be divided into the growth-oriented market (i.e. Guangdong whose financing capacity is always significant), the balance-oriented market (i.e. Shanghai and Hubei whose quota pricing mechanisms and the financing level of carbon markets both maturely develop), and the risk-oriented market (i.e. Beijing whose quota price runs at a high-level with an intense financing income volatility). It is therefore achieved that carbon market's maturity level and quota price volatility are both robustly explicable for different financing effects among these pilots. Our key findings show that expanding the coverage of quota trading parties, stabilizing carbon price, and promoting carbon asset management help to improve the financing efficiency of carbon market. • The financing mechanism is analyzed with clarifying its main influence factors. • A stochastic process is used to build a price simulation equation that meets the operation law of China's carbon market. • An income model is built and thus evaluate market financing effect based on price expression and financing mechanism. • The financing effect of China's 8 pilot markets is measured, and thus 3 kinds of development modes are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]