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This paper estimates a Bayesian vector autoregression for the U.S. economy that includes a housing sector and addresses the following questions: Can developments in the housing sector be explained on the basis of developments in real and nominal gross domestic product and interest rates? What are the effects of housing demand shocks on the economy? How does monetary policy affect the housing market? What are the implications of house price developments for the stance of monetary policy? Regarding the latter question, we implement a Céspedes et al. (2006) version of a monetary conditions index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the U.S. share of the world goods trade slips from its level in the 1980s and 1990s, concerns have arisen that the productivity of U.S. exporters has not been growing as fast as that of foreign firms selling similar products. However, an analysis of industrylevel trade data suggests that two other factors explain much of the drop in export share: the changing composition of the products traded internationally and the diminished share of U.S. GDP in global output. Declining relative productivity may have played a role in the early 2000s, but it has not been a large factor across industries over the longer term. Overall, there is little evidence of a broad-based decline in the nation's ability to compete in global markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents the author's views on an article on the U.S. Congressional Budget Office's (CBO's) economic forecast method by Robert W. Arnold, published within this issue. An approach for projecting potential output using an assumption of the inflation rate of unemployment is presented. The author cites the CBO's Keynesian perspective on the economic process. He criticizes the absence of tools in the CBO's method for measuring permanent shocks to gross domestic product (GDP).

The article analysis research paper about the effects of estimated macroeconomics to the federal reserve's large-scale treasury program. It states that the authors apply a set of model to attempt setting apart the effects that the program may have on interest rates, employment rates, and real spending gross domestic product (GDP). Moreover, it notes that the Boston model suggests that it will require two years for the lagged impact to be fully actualized in the U.S. economy.

Analyzing the performance of the economy in real time is a challenge for those who must forecast macroeconomic variables such as inflation or employment. A key aspect of this challenge is evaluating the incoming flow of information contained in economic announcements. In this article, the authors develop a simple-to-read index of these announcements that they then use to construct nowcasts. The index tracks whether key economic data have come in stronger, weaker, or as expected during the current quarter relative to a baseline consensus forecast. Specifically, the data releases are weighted relative to their importance in updating forecasts of real gross domestic product growth during the current quarter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the alternative measures of gross domestic product (GDP) and how they affect GDP's interpretation in the U.S. It emphasizes a measure that is different from other published series and capable of addressing economic issues by estimating investment in research and development (R&D), similar intangible items and fraction of wages paid to women. It shows the significance of GDP's correlation with unemployment and inflation in making it a good measure of the country's economy.

The article discusses the importance of having inventory investment to check the performance of real gross domestic product (GDP) in the U.S. New Keynesian model is used by the executives to analyze and solve the optimal monetary policy problems in inventory stocks of the business enterprises. According to some studies, the strategic move is very effective to apply especially on the times of economic recession.

Potential output is an estimate of the level of gross domestic product attainable when the economy is operating at a high rate of resource use. A summary measure of the economy's productive capacity, potential output plays an important role in the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)'s economic forecast and projection. The author briefly describes the method the CBO uses to estimate and project potential output, outlines some of the advantages and disadvantages of that approach, and describes some of the challenges associated with estimating and projecting potential output. Chief among these is the difficulty of estimating the underlying trends in economic data series that are volatile, subject to structural change, and frequently revised. Those challenges are illustrated using examples based on recent experience with labor force growth, the Phillips curve, and labor productivity growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study uses a state-space model to estimate the "true" unobserved measure of total output in the U.S. economy. The analysis uses the entire history (i.e., all vintages) of selected real-time data series to compute revisions and corresponding statistics for those series. The revision statistics, along with the most recent data vintage, are used in a state-space model to extract filtered estimates of the "true" series. Under certain assumptions, Monte Carlo simulations suggest this framework can improve published estimates by as much as 30 percent, lasting an average of 11 periods. Realtime experiments using a measure of real gross domestic product show improvement closer to 10 percent, lasting for 1 to 2 quarters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors use a growth accounting framework to examine growth of the rapidly developing Chinese economy. Their findings support the view that, although feasible in the intermediate term, China's recent pattern of extensive growth is not sustainable in the long run. The authors believe that China will be able to sustain a growth rate of 8 to 9 percent for an extended period if it moves from extensive to intensive growth. They next compare potential growth in China with historical developments in the United States and the European Union. They discuss the differences in production structure and level of development across the three economies that may explain the countries' varied intermediate-term growth prospects. Finally, the authors provide an analysis of "green" gross domestic product and the role of natural resources in China's growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While homeland security is widely seen as an important national objective, the costs of this effort are not well understood. An analysis of public and private expenditures on homeland security shows that overall spending rose by $44 billion between 2001 and 2005--a clear increase but one that represents a gain of only ¼ of 1 percent as a share of U.S. GDP. Private sector expenditures increased very modestly in dollar terms and remained unchanged as a fraction of the sector's GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the aftermath of the disruptions caused by hurricanes Katrina and Rita, natural gas prices rose to record-high levels. Because natural gas is an important energy source for the U.S. economy, there was widespread concern that these high prices might cause a significant slowing in the economy--especially among those manufacturing industries that heavily consume natural gas. The analysis presented in this article suggests that output is responsive to natural gas prices in some manufacturing sectors. Although perhaps significant, this result must be balanced against the finding that, when the analysis is extended to the macroeconomy (real gross domestic product growth), increases in crude oil prices significantly predict real gross domestic product growth, but natural gas prices do not. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Focuses on Tech-Pulse Index as an indicator to assess the activity in the U. S. technology sector. Conference Board indicators used in the index; Growth in real gross domestic product in the U. S. economy; Technological innovations that boost the technology sector.

Reports on the subpar performance of the U.S. economy in the first half of 2003. Increase in the real gross domestic product in the first half of the year; Prices of equities; Expectation of the Federal Researve on the economic activity.

Evaluates the contribution of high-technology investment spending to trends in investment and overall economic growth in the U.S. in the 1990s. Output and investment growth rates and contributions of investment to gross domestic product (GDP) growth for national income and product accounts data; Contributions of growth of GDP; Growth rates of major components of equipment and software investment. INSET: MEASURING QUALITY IMPROVEMENT WITH HEDONICS.

Investigates the behavior of expenditures on industrial equipment and computer software of companies in the United States (U.S.) from 1995 to 2001. Contribution of equipment expenditures on the gross domestic product of the U.S.; Factors underlying the behavior of equipment expenditures; Effect of equity values and relative prices on equipment and software expenditure growth.

Presents charts depicting domestic nonfinancial statistics in the United States as of July 2001. Industrial production of market groups; Adjustment of annual rates of gross domestic product and income; Information on wage and salary disbursements.

Presents charts on domestic nonfinancial statistics of the United States for the period 1998-2001. Data on nonfinancial business activity, labor force employment and unemployment; Output, capacity and capacity utilization; Industrial production; Housing and construction; Consumer and producer prices: Gross domestic product and income; Personal income and saving.

Presents United States domestic nonfinancial statistics reflecting data available as of August 29, 2000. Nonfinancial business activity; Labor force, employment and unemployment; Output, capacity and capacity utilization; Industrial production; Housing and construction; Consumer and producer prices; GDP and income; Personal income and saving.

Examines the growth of United States' gross domestic product (GDP) from the period of 1984-1998 in relation with the state of its economic development. Types of changes in the economic environment; Decline in the volatility of GDP growth; Conclusions.