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Abstract Environmental noise can cause important cardiovascular effects, stress and sleep disturbance. The development of appropriate methods to estimate noise exposure within a single urban area remains a challenging task, due to the presence of various transportation noise sources (road, rail, and aircraft). In this study, we developed a land-use regression (LUR) approach using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) for LA eq (equivalent noise level) to capture the spatial variability of noise levels in Toronto, Canada. Four different model formulations were proposed based on continuous 20-min noise measurements at 92 sites and a leave one out cross-validation (LOOCV). Models where coefficients for variables considered as noise sources were forced to be positive, led to the development of more realistic exposure surfaces. Three different measures were used to assess the models; adjusted R2 (0.44–0.64), deviance (51−72%) and Akaike information criterion (AIC) (469.2–434.6). When comparing exposures derived from the four approaches to personal exposures from a panel study, we observed that all approaches performed very similarly, with values for the Fractional mean bias (FB), normalized mean square error (NMSE), and normalized absolute difference (NAD) very close to 0. Finally, we compared the noise surfaces with data collected from a previous campaign consisting of 1-week measurements at 200 fixed sites in Toronto and observed that the strongest correlations occurred between our predictions and measured noise levels along major roads and highway collectors. Our validation against long-term measurements and panel data demonstrates that manual modifications brought to the models were able to reduce bias in model predictions and achieve a wider range of exposures, comparable with measurement data. Highlights • A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was developed to generate noise exposure surfaces. • Noise data were collected based on short-term measurements in Toronto, Canada. • Various model specifications were tested in terms of the resulting predictions. • Predictions were validated against data from a panel and from a long-term campaign. • Models that involved manual adjustments resulted in more realistic surfaces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated whether hypertension may be a mediator in the pathway linking environmental noise exposure to incident MI and stroke. Separately for MI and stroke, we built two population-based cohorts from linked health administrative data. Participants were residents of Montreal (Canada) between 2000 and 2014, aged 45 years and older who were free of hypertension and MI or stroke at time of entry. MI, stroke and hypertension were ascertained from validated case definitions. Residential long-term environmental noise exposure, expressed as the annual mean level acoustic equivalent 24 h (L Aeq24h), was estimated from a land use regression model. We performed mediation analysis based on the potential outcomes framework. We used a Cox proportional hazards model for the exposure-outcome model and a logistic regression for the exposure-mediator model. In sensitivity analysis we applied a marginal structural approach to estimate the natural direct and indirect effects. Each cohort included approximately 900 000 individuals, with 26 647 incident cases of MI and 16 656 incident cases of stroke. 36% of incident MI and 40% of incident stokes had previously developed hypertension. The estimated total effect per interquartile range increase (from 55.0 to 60.5 dB A) in the annual mean L Aeq24h was 1.073 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.070–1.077) for both MI for stroke. We found no evidence of exposure-mediator interaction for both outcomes. The relationships between environmental noise and MI and stroke was not mediated by hypertension. This population-based cohort study suggests that the main route by which environmental noise exposure may cause MI or stroke is not through hypertension. • We performed causal mediation analysis based on the potential outcomes framework. • Hypertension does not mediate the effect of environmental noise on MI and stroke. • Acting on hypertension (e.g. with medication) will not prevent MI/stroke from noise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Since public transit infrastructure affects road traffic volumes and influences transportation mode choice, which in turn impacts health, it is important to estimate the alteration of the health burden linked with transit policies. Objective We quantified the variation in health benefits and burden between a business as usual (BAU) and a public transit (PT) scenarios in 2031 (with 8 and 19 new subway and train stations) for the greater Montreal region. Method Using mode choice and traffic assignment models, we predicted the transportation mode choice and traffic assignment on the road network. Subsequently, we estimated the distance travelled in each municipality by mode, the minutes spent in active transportation, as well as traffic emissions. Thereafter we estimated the health burden attributed to air pollution and road traumas and the gains associated with active transportation for both the BAU and PT scenarios. Results We predicted a slight decrease of overall trips and kilometers travelled by car as well as an increase of active transportation for the PT in 2031 vs the BAU. Our analysis shows that new infrastructure will reduce the overall burden of transportation by 2.5 DALYs per 100,000 persons. This decrease is caused by the reduction of road traumas occurring in the inner suburbs and central Montreal region as well as gains in active transportation in the inner suburbs. Conclusion Based on the results of our study, transportation planned public transit projects for Montreal are unlikely to reduce drastically the burden of disease attributable to road vehicles and infrastructures in the Montreal region. The impact of the planned transportation infrastructures seems to be very low and localized mainly in the areas where new public transit stations are planned. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The adverse effects of long-term exposure to environmental noise on human health are of increasing concern. Noise mapping methods such as spatial interpolation and land use regression cannot capture complex relationships between environmental conditions and noise propagation or attenuation in a three-dimension (3D) built environment. In this study, we developed a hybrid approach by combining a traffic propagation model and random forests (RF) machine learning algorithm to map the total environment noise levels for daily average, daytime, nighttime, and day-evening-nighttime at 30 m × 30 m resolution for the island of Montreal, Canada. The propagation model was used to predict traffic noise surfaces using road traffic flow, 3D building information, and a digital elevation model. The traffic noise estimates were compared with ground-based sound-level measurements at 87 points to extract residuals between total environmental noise and traffic noise. Residuals at these points were fit to RF models with multiple environmental and geographic predictor variables (e.g. , vegetation index, population density, brightness of nighttime lights, land use types, and distances to noise contour around the airport, bus stops, and road intersections). Using the sound-level measurements as baseline data, the prediction errors, i.e. , mean error, mean absolute error, and root mean squared error of daily average noise levels estimated by our hybrid approach was −0.03 dB (A) , 2.67 dB (A) , and 3.36 dB (A). Combining deterministic and stochastic models can provide accurate total environmental noise estimates for large geographic areas where sound-level measurements are available. • Traffic noise surfaces were simulated by a propagation model. • Residuals between traffic noise and total environmental noise were estimated by RF. • Total environmental noise was predicted by the hybrid propagation-RF approach. • Closer-to-reality noise levels was simulated by the hybrid model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effects of air pollutants are related to oxidative stress which is also linked to the pathogenesis of dementia including Alzheimer's and related diseases. We assessed associations between exposure to air pollutants and the onset of dementia; the association with the distance between residence and major roads was also assessed for the island of Montreal. We created an open cohort of adults aged 65 years and older starting in 2000 and ending in 2012 in the province of Québec, Canada using linked medico-administrative databases. New cases of dementia were defined based on a validated algorithm. Annual residential levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2) and fine particles (PM 2.5) at residential levels were estimated for each year of follow up using estimates based on satellite images and ground air monitoring data. Hazard ratios (HRs) were assessed with Extended (time dependent exposure) Cox models with age as the time axis and stratified for sex, for the annual exposure level at each residential address. Models were adjusted for the calendar year, area-wide social and material deprivation indexes and for NO 2 or PM 2.5 ; they were also indirectly adjusted for smoking. 1,807,133 persons (13,242,270 person-years) were followed and 199,826 developed dementia. From models (adjusted for calendar year, social and material deprivation indexes), HRs for an interquartile range (IQR) increase in time-varying exposure to NO 2 (IQR 13.26 ppb), PM 2.5 (IQR 3.90 μg/m³), and distance to major roads (IQR 150 m, in Montreal only), were 1.005 (CI 95% 0.994–1.017), 1.016 (CI 95% 1.003–1.028) and 0.969 (CI 95% 0.958–0.980), respectively. Results suggest that the onset of dementia may be related to residential exposure to PM 2.5 , NO 2 , and distance to major roads. • We studied dementia onset and residential exposure to air pollutants. • We used a cohort based on administrative health data in Quebec, Canada, 2000–2012. • Residential exposure to PM2.5, NO2 was based on satellite images and monitoring data. • PM2.5, NO2, distances to major roads (Montreal) were associated with dementia onset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We compared numbers of trips and distances by transport mode, air pollution and health impacts of a Business As Usual (BAU) and an Ideal scenario with urban densification and reductions in car share (76%–62% in suburbs; 55%–34% in urban areas) for the Greater Montreal (Canada) for 2061. We estimated the population in 87 municipalities using a demographic model and population projections. Year 2031 (Y2031) trips (from mode choice modeling) and distances were used to estimate those of Y2061. Emissions of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and carbon dioxide (CO2) were estimated and NO2 used with dispersion modeling to estimate concentrations. Walking and Public Transit (PT) use and corresponding distances walked in Y2061 were >70% higher for the Ideal scenario vs the BAU, while car share and distances were <40% lower. NO2 levels were slightly lower in the Ideal scenario vs the BAU, but always higher in the urban core. Health impacts, summarized with disability adjusted life years (DALY), differed between urban and suburb areas but globally, the Ideal scenario reduced the impacts of the Y2061 BAU by 33% DALY. Percentages of car and PT trips were similar for the Y2031 and Y2061 BAU but kms travelled by car, CO2 and NO2 increased, due to increased populations. Drastic measures to decrease car share appear necessary to substantially reduce impacts of transportation. • We modelled 2061 densification, telework & decrease car share (~15%) impacts. • Walking & Public Transit use were >25% higher for this scenario in Y2061. • NO2 was slightly lower in the Y2061 scenario but always higher in the urban core. • Greater decrease in DALY was noted in suburb areas (Globally Y2061 scenario > -30%). • Drastic car share reduction & densification are necessary to greatly reduce impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]