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Since the seminal work of MM irrelevance theory, there has been a long history of controversy among academicians both in developed and developing nations regarding the determinants of capital structure. To this end, the main aim of this study was to investigate firm-specific and country-level determinants of the capital structure of Ethiopian commercial banks. The study adopted an explanatory research design with a quantitative research approach. A panel dataset was obtained from 14 commercial banks, which range from 2010 to 2022. A random effect panel regression result revealed that tangibility, non-debt tax shields, growth, and interest rate had a positive and significant effect, while the gross domestic product had a negative and significant effect on leverage which is used as a measure of capital structure. Among the independent variables tested, ROA, liquidity, effective tax rate, risk, and inflation have an insignificant effect on the capital structure of the selected commercial banks. The study will have implications for managers of commercial banks, legislators, regulators, and other interested parties that can use the study's conclusions to help them make well-informed capital decisions and implement the necessary measures to enhance the financial performance of Ethiopian banks with an optimal ratio of debt to equity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Investments in environmentally friendly initiatives can bolster infrastructure projects, agricultural methods, and water management systems that improve the ability to withstand climate-related difficulties. Green investments encompass endorsing carbon markets and financial instruments that incentivise reducing emissions. This research helps attain the climate objectives described in sustainable development goal 13 (SDG 13). Purpose: This chapter aims to investigate the relationship between greenhouse gases (GHG) and gross domestic product (GDP), with the underlying objective of understanding the relevance of green investment for sustainable development. Methodology: For the analysis, the top five countries: the USA, China, Germany, Japan, and India, were chosen based on the world's largest economies in 2023, as per their GDP data. For testing the hypothesis, data from the World Bank database during the period 2002-2022 was retrieved and GDP is used as a dependent variable and GHG as an independent variable. For the study, panel data are used, and the Johansen cointegration test and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression are applied. Findings: In the case of China and India, the null hypothesis has been rejected, which is depicted by the significant and high degree of relation between GHGs and the GDP of these two countries. The null hypothesis is also rejected for the USA and Germany, but it shows a significant and moderate degree of relationship between GHG and GDP. For Japan, the null hypothesis is accepted and reflects a negative relationship between GHG and GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractWe propose a novel bootstrap procedure for conducting inference for factor model-based average treatment effects estimators. Our method overcomes bias inherent to existing bootstrap procedures and substantially improves upon existing large sample normal inference theory in small sample settings. The finite sample improvements arising from the use of our proposed procedure are illustrated via a set of Monte Carlo simulations, and formal justification for the procedure is outlined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper aims to analyse the impact of taxation policies in African countries on Moroccan foreign direct investment (FDI) using panel data from 29 African countries spanning the period 2005–2021, employing the Estimated Generalized Least Squares estimation method. The findings suggest that high total tax, profit tax, and other tax rates deter Moroccan multinational enterprises (MNEs) from investing in African countries. Conversely, fiscal incentives and reduced tax rates positively influence Moroccan FDI in African countries. Additionally, the results indicate that a high score for tax payment and tax rates positively influences Moroccan FDI in African countries, implying that high-quality taxation policies encourage Moroccan MNEs to invest in African economies. Furthermore, the study finds that the GDP of African economies positively moderates the effect of taxation on Moroccan FDI behaviour. This suggests that the larger the market size of a country, the less severe the negative impact of taxation on FDI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractThis study aims to investigate how Foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade openness influenced economic growth in BRICS countries from 1990 to 2022, using the Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) and System Generalized Method of Moments (System-GMM) methods. Our findings show that these two variables boost economic growth by 0.172, 0.021, 0.291, and 0.072%, respectively. Additionally, the results indicate that BRICS countries have demonstrated greater resilience in terms of FDI and trade before and after the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, underscoring the effectiveness of their investment and trade policies in maintaining economic growth amidst global disruptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on corporate sustainability [environmental, social and governance (ESG)] performance and aims to explore whether uncertainty-induced sustainability performance is influenced by the firm's life cycle (LC). Design/methodology/approach: The study uses data from European non-financial firms listed during the period from 2002 to 2022 to extend the nascent literature regarding EPU and sustainability performance while applying a dynamic panel data regression analysis (Generalized Method of Moments - GMM System) on 11,462 firm-year observations of 1,869 European firms. Findings: The authors find overwhelming evidence that policy uncertainty affects the sustainability performance of European firms. The firms restrict their environmental and governance-related activities and address immediate issues to survive during periods of high EPU. Conversely, the firms increase their social engagements to decrease uncertainty-induced information asymmetry. The authors' results show that the intensity and type of sustainability performance are also influenced by the firm's LC. The results imply that board gender diversity (BGD) increases while power concentration with the chief executive officer (CEO) decreases sustainability performance. Practical implications: These findings have important implications for policymakers, potential investors, firm management and other stakeholders given the firms' access to resources and preferences to encounter uncertainty vary across different LC stages. Originality/value: To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study that investigates the role of the firm's LC in the relationship between policy uncertainty and sustainability performance in the European context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cohesion Policy is one of the core policy areas of the European Union and one of the largest expenditure items in its budget. Its impact is the subject of intense academic and policy debate, but its effectiveness is an empirical question still open. This article contributes to this debate by performing a region-specific investigation of the direct and indirect impact of Structural Funds expenditure. We employ a heterogeneous panel data model, which accommodates the spatial dependence in a heterogeneous setting and measures heterogeneous spatial spillover effects, both inward and outward. We also consider different channels of spatial spillovers with respect to standard geographical closeness. In particular, the introduction of new measures of proximity that explicitly consider economic linkages between regions is a novel contribution to the literature. The results clearly indicate that the impact of the Cohesion Policy, while positive overall, is highly heterogeneous and the Structural Funds expenditure generates substantial heterogeneous spatial spillovers: the positive effects do not remain confined to the target regions. Finally, strong spillover effects are channelled by value-added trade connections, particularly in regions belonging to the so-called 'Central European Manufacturing Core'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper analyses the determinants of green development in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries pointing out the influence of the sophistication of productive structure and exported goods (economic complexity). The study uses OECD data regarding green development, World Bank Indicators, World Penn Table Data, and MIT Harvard data covering the period of 1996 to 2020, in a heterogeneous panel approach. Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) models are estimated in order to express the influence on green development of the economic complexity index, KOF globalization index, renewable energy consumption, human capital index, and a constructed institutional quality index (computed by using the Principal Component Analysis based on data from World Governance Indicators). All considered variables have a validated statistical influence on green growth in both models. The Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test revealed a bidirectional causal relationship between institutional quality and green growth and unidirectional ones from economic complexity, human capital and renewable energy to green development and from green development to globalization. Policy implications are also provided.

The nexus between the terms of trade and marginal propensity to import and the consequent policy options arising from it among economic blocs is an area that has not been given due attention in the literature. The focus of the current paper is to examine the link between the marginal propensity to import and the terms of trade in the East African Community (EAC).

Understanding the rationale for macroeconomic policy coordination with the aim of achieving greater policy credibility and effectiveness in West Africa still remains the subject of debate.

It is commonly accepted that the success and expansion of insurance companies’ underwriting operations, which is indicated by the premiums received from insurance policies, is reflected in their profitability rates. During the period of 2010 to 2021, Iraqi insurance companies in the private sector that are listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange experienced a fluctuation in the increase and noticeable decrease of gross written premiums, which had a negative impact on their profitability ratios. The aim of this investigation is to analyze the underwriting activities carried out by all insurance companies that are publicly listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange spanning from 2010 to 2021, and assess the impact of these activities on the companies’ profitability rates. To evaluate the profitability of these firms, three indicators are used, namely the rate of return on assets, return on equity, and profit margin ratio. The study employs Data Panel models using Eviews 12 to identify the research samples during the study period. Additionally, the pooled regression model is used to compare the findings and test the hypotheses of the study. In a structured manner, data is collected from the annual reports released by the Iraq Stock Exchange. The statistical examination of the findings reveals that the gross written premium has a significant and positive influence on all of the profitability ratios that were evaluated in this study, namely the rate of return on assets, return on equity, and profit margin ratio.

Graduate unemployment has become a common phenomenon in Africa. Many youth with advanced education levels are not able to find decent jobs. This article examines the effect of human capital investment on youth unemployment using panel data from 44 sub-Saharan countries over the period 1991-2020. The Cross-Sectional augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) modeling approach is carried out to overcome the issue of endogeneity and cross-sectional dependency. Results show that in the long run, an increase in primary and tertiary school enrolments reduces the youth unemployment rate. In contrast, secondary school enrolment is positively associated with youth unemployment, independently of gender considerations. The short-run dynamics reveal that primary and tertiary school enrolments are positively associated with youth unemployment. In addition, the results confirmed Phillip's curve hypothesis between inflation and unemployment and Okun's law between economic growth and unemployment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effect of Information Communication Technology (ICT) development on corruption in emerging market economies (EMEs). By employing a system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator in a dynamic panel data model, we find that ICT development reduces corruption. We have further disaggregated ICT Development into ICT Access and ICT Use. The findings show that ICT access is more effective in reducing the level of corruption as compared to ICT use. From a policy perspective, it is important for emerging countries to practice ICT as one of the tools for controlling corruption in the modern digital era. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the impact of green financial policies, specifically green bonds and green credit, on investments in green energy across 23 OECD (The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) member countries from 2010 to 2021. Analyzing panel data using CUP-FM analysis, it finds that both green bonds and green credit significantly foster investments in green resource projects, with green bonds showing greater sensitivity. Conversely, green fiscal policies, particularly green taxes, prove ineffective and sometimes counterproductive. The research highlights a positive correlation between increased investments in green resources, growth in green economies, and sustainable utilities trade, while emphasizing the detrimental effect of public health costs on green project development. The study underscores the importance of appropriate policies to promote investments in renewable resources, spanning green finance, green fiscal policies, green economic growth, and sustainable utilities trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study aims to examine the impact of interlocking directorships on firm performance in Turkey, with a specific focus on the moderating role of board diversity. Design/methodology/approach: Using a panel dataset comprising the top 100 firms listed on Borsa Istanbul from 2014 to 2018, this study employs regression analysis to investigate the relationship between interlocking directorships, board diversity, and firm performance. It firm-level financial data and directorship information to assess the effects of interlocking directorships on firm performance while also considering the moderating influence of board diversity. Findings: The findings of this study reveal several important insights. First, the results confirm the "busyness hypothesis" as an increase in the number of interlocks per director negatively impacts firm performance, indicating reduced monitoring effectiveness. However, the study also demonstrates that board diversity plays a significant moderating role. Specifically, board diversity positively influences the relationship between interlocking directorships and firm performance, suggesting that a diverse board can mitigate the negative effects of interlocks and enhance overall firm performance. Originality/value: This study contributes to the existing literature in several ways. First, this study extends our understanding of the relationship between interlocking directorships and firm performance, considering contingency factors in the Turkish market. Second, our findings imply that board diversity mitigates the negative impact of busy interlocking directorates and improves firm performance, which provides invaluable directions to firms in setting their boards. Moreover, this research enhances corporate governance practices in Turkey and beyond in other emerging markets with similar corporate governance mechanisms by identifying the importance of board diversity and its moderating influence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bunching estimation of distortions in a distribution around a policy threshold provides a means of studying behavioral parameters. Standard cross-sectional bunching estimators rely on identification assumptions about heterogeneity that I show can be violated by serial dependence of the choice variable or attrition related to the threshold. I propose a bunching estimation design that exploits panel data to obtain identification from relative within-agent changes in income and to estimate new parameters. Simulations using household income data demonstrate the benefits of the panel design. An application to charitable organizations demonstrates opportunities for estimating elasticity correlates, causal effects, and extensive-margin responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our confidence set quantifies the statistical uncertainty from data‐driven group assignments in grouped panel models. It covers the true group memberships jointly for all units with pre‐specified probability and is constructed by inverting many simultaneous unit‐specific one‐sided tests for group membership. We justify our approach under N,T → ∞ asymptotics using tools from high‐dimensional statistics, some of which we extend in this paper. We provide Monte Carlo evidence that the confidence set has adequate coverage in finite samples. An empirical application illustrates the use of our confidence set. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of macroprudential policy announcements on financial stability in Europe. Our three financial (in)stability proxies are systemic risk measures that cover all types of financial institutions and consider various financial market segments. We find that the announcements of macroprudential policy actions only contain banking systemic risk with the latter computed based on market data. However, when measuring systemic risk by including both market and balance sheet data, we observe an increase in the systemic risk of all financial institutions, banks and non-banks. This last result is confirmed when considering non-diversifiable risk across financial market segments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Terrorism globally yields severe consequences for individuals and societies, potentially driving migration within and across borders. Yet, empirical evidence on its causal impact remains limited. The contribution of our paper is twofold. First, we construct various indicators of terrorist activity at a fine level of spatial and temporal granularity, which allow to accurately identify individuals’ exposure to terrorist threat. Second, we use these geo-localised indicators to empirically analyse the role of terrorist attacks in shaping internal and international migration intentions for 133 countries between 2007 and 2015. Our results indicate that terrorist attacks spur both internal and international migration intentions, though the effect is stronger for the latter. The effect on international migration intentions is linked to the intensity of attacks, rather than their frequency. Furthermore, the impact varies based on individual and country characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the impact of oil price fluctuations on trade, including the exports and imports of goods and services, fuel exports and fuel imports. For this purpose, we employed a Pooled Mean Group estimator on the autoregressive distributed lag (PMG–ARDL) model. This approach helps investigate the short-run and long-run effects of oil price changes on trade indicators considering the difference of convergence path across countries while handling problems of endogeneity. This study examines a strongly balanced panel dataset of 34 OECD countries over the 26 years from 1995 to 2020. Overall, the findings indicate that rising oil prices have a positive and significant impact on all trade indicators. The results are consistent with the immediate and persistent influence of oil price fluctuations on trade. Nevertheless, the effects of other explanatory variables on trade vary across different trade indicators and in the short and long runs. From a policy perspective, it is vital to comprehend the appropriate policy responses to oil price changes to achieve the expected trade outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A semiparametric stochastic frontier model is proposed for panel data, incorporating several flexible features. First, a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production frontier is considered without log-transformation to prevent induced non-negligible estimation bias. Second, the model flexibility is improved via semiparameterization, where the technology is an unknown function of a set of environment variables. The technology function accounts for latent heterogeneity across individual units, which can be freely correlated with inputs, environment variables, and/or inefficiency determinants. Furthermore, the technology function incorporates a single-index structure to circumvent the curse of dimensionality. Third, distributional assumptions are eschewed on both stochastic noise and inefficiency for model identification. Instead, only the conditional mean of the inefficiency is assumed, which depends on related determinants with a wide range of choice, via a positive parametric function. As a result, technical efficiency is constructed without relying on an assumed distribution on composite error. The model provides flexible structures on both the production frontier and inefficiency, thereby alleviating the risk of model misspecification in production and efficiency analysis. The estimator involves a series based nonlinear least squares estimation for the unknown parameters and a kernel based local estimation for the technology function. Promising finite-sample performance is demonstrated through simulations, and the model is applied to investigate productive efficiency among OECD countries from 1970–2019. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors propose to estimate a varying coefficient panel data model with different smoothing variables and fixed effects using a two-step approach. The pilot step estimates the varying coefficients by a series method. We then use the pilot estimates to perform a one-step backfitting through local linear kernel smoothing, which is shown to be oracle efficient in the sense of being asymptotically equivalent to the estimate knowing the other components of the varying coefficients. In both steps, the authors remove the fixed effects through properly constructed weights. The authors obtain the asymptotic properties of both the pilot and efficient estimators. The Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed estimator performs well. The authors illustrate their applicability by estimating a varying coefficient production frontier using a panel data, without assuming distributions of the efficiency and error terms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The traditional predictor of technical inefficiency proposed by Jondrow, Lovell, Materov, and Schmidt (1982) is a conditional expectation. This chapter explores whether, and by how much, the predictor can be improved by using auxiliary information in the conditioning set. It considers two types of stochastic frontier models. The first type is a panel data model where composed errors from past and future time periods contain information about contemporaneous technical inefficiency. The second type is when the stochastic frontier model is augmented by input ratio equations in which allocative inefficiency is correlated with technical inefficiency. Compared to the standard kernel-smoothing estimator, a newer estimator based on a local linear random forest helps mitigate the curse of dimensionality when the conditioning set is large. Besides numerous simulations, there is an illustrative empirical example. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Homelessness has many causes and also is stigmatized in the United States, leading to much misunderstanding of its causes and what policy solutions may ameliorate the problem. The problem is of course getting worse and impacting many communities far removed from the West Coast cities the authors examine in this study. This analysis examines the socioeconomic variables influencing homelessness on the West Coast in recent years. The authors utilize a panel fixed effects model that explicitly includes measures of healthcare access and availability to account for the additional health risks faced by individuals who lack shelter. The authors estimate a spatial error model (SEM) in order to better understand the impacts that systemic shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, have on a variety of factors that directly influence productivity and other measures of welfare such as income inequality, housing supply, healthcare investment, and homelessness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In countries with strict employment protection legislation, firms may seek to replace regular by atypical jobs in order to cut wages or to become more flexible. In Germany, the number of unprotected temporary jobs is comparatively low. During the past decades, temporary agency employment, however, has increased considerably and the share of agency workers is now above the EU average. Using German establishment data, the analysis draws on longitudinal (generalized method of moments) and cross-sectional (matching and difference in differences) methods to evaluate whether agency workers replaced or supplemented regular workers during and after the Great Recession of 2008/2009. The study finds that hiring (more) agency workers made it possible for user firms among Germany's core manufacturing industries to employ a larger number of regular workers at the same time. In specific sectors and regions, temp agencies therefore provided an alternative to government-sponsored instruments such as short-time work schemes. Obviously, from the view of workers, many disadvantages remain, even more so as it is rare for temp spells to offer a stepping stone into regular employment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the effect of sectarian politics in the presence of weak state capacity on long-term economic growth. To this end, we exploit the 1956 civil uprising between Maronite Christian and Sunni Muslim factions in Lebanon to estimate the impact of sectarian political tensions on long-term growth. To isolate the impact of the uprising, we use synthetic control estimator and match Lebanon's pre-1956 growth and development trajectory with the rest of the world where such uprising did not occur, and estimate the counterfactual growth trajectory in the hypothetical absence of the sectarian conflict. Our evidence indicates large and pervasive negative growth effects of factionalism. Our estimates imply that Lebanon's per capita income down to the present day is on average 57% lower than that of its pre-1956 synthetic control group without sectarian clashes, and does not seem to be driven by preexisting or subsequent trends and shocks. The negative long-term growth effect of sectarian conflict is robust to a battery of spatial and temporal placebo checks, choice of samples and is not sensitive to the composition of control groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Owing to the different roles of men and women in the family, women may affect family welfare differently than men. Existing research only analyzes the impact of non-farm employment or male non-farm employment on family welfare, and the impact of female non-farm employment on the family has not been addressed in existing studies. China is a particularly interesting case given its rapid economic development and rising rates of female non-farm employment. We used data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey to analyze the dietary patterns of family members and identify the factors that influence food choices and nutrient intake. The results showed that female non-farm employment reduced household protein and calorie intake levels and increased the frequency of dining out among rural household members. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is the most ambitious investment strategy for infrastructural development belonging to the significant potential for stimulating regional economic growth in Asia, Europe and Africa. This study aims to investigate the impact of infrastructure on spurring inward foreign direct investment (FDI) within the purview of human capital, GDP per capita, foreign aid, trade, domestic investment, population and institutional quality in BRI countries. Design/methodology/approach: In doing so, the authors analyze panel data from 2000 to 2019 within the framework of the system generalized method of movement (GMM) approach for 66 BRI countries from Europe, Asia, Africa and the Middle East. Findings: The investigated results demonstrate that aggregate and disaggregate infrastructure indices, e.g. transport, telecommunications, financial and energy infrastructures, are the driving forces in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) in the BRI countries. In addition, control variables (i.e. institutional quality, human capital, trade, domestic investment, foreign aid and GDP per capita) play an essential role in spurring FDI inflows. Originality/value: The authors' study uniquely investigates both the pre- (2000–2012) and post- (2013–2019) BRI scenarios using the aggregate and disaggregate infrastructural components from the perspectives of full and clustered sample regions, such as Asia, Europe, Africa and the Middle East. The study provides several policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between energy technology R&D and energy consumption has remained an unsettled empirical issue. This study investigates whether accumulative energy technology R&D investments have contributed to decreases in final energy and fossil fuel consumption in 19 OECD countries over the period 1975–2020. We ask whether an increase in energy technology R&D stocks has contributed to decreases in final energy and fossil fuel consumption and hence may effect energy savings. Methodologically, we treat the accumulation and depreciation of energy technology R&D investments as R&D stocks, and we use state-of-the-art estimation methods for dealing with cross-sectional dependence, nonstationarity, heterogeneity and time-varying coefficients that often plague panel-time-series models. Across our heterogeneous dynamic models, we find those estimators that properly account for cross-sectional dependence yield negative and significant coefficients on energy technology R&D stocks. Our time-varying estimates on energy technology R&D stocks confirm the above findings and feature two turning points—i.e., the 1979 oil shock, the Fukushima accident—in effecting energy savings. These two turning points provide strong evidence that the sample countries are subject to common shocks. The evidence we present supports the environmental sustainability orientated view that energy technology R&D is playing a prominent role in making energy savings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainability is a process that characterizes in a broad sense a nation’s ecological performance and may display a time-varying pattern. Such dynamic trajectories may vary among different countries and prompt not only intriguing questions on space–time convergence but also on the possibility of club convergence. The scope of this study is to investigate the long-run convergence pattern of 137 countries, as presented by their sustainable development index (SDI) over the period 1990–2019. The statistical–econometric analysis used to identify convergence across (groups of) countries is based on the advanced Phillips and Sul (JAE 24:1153–1185, 2009; ECTA 75:1771–1855, 2007) method. The empirical findings from our study allow us to identify two SDI convergence clubs of countries. The first and the biggest club includes mainly the developing African and Asian countries; whereas, the second club includes many OECD countries including inter alia the US, Canada, and Australia. Our analysis brings to light that the transition paths of these two clubs show a significant divergence pattern; this a-symmetry calls also into question the effectiveness of global green policies, such as the clean development mechanism as foreseen in the Kyoto protocol. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the recent past, geopolitical tension has taken center stage in defining macroeconomic dynamics. Given that, this study examines the impact of geopolitical risk on economic growth for 41 countries from 2000 to 2020. Our panel estimations using the feasible generalized least square (FGLS) technique show that geopolitical risk positively and significantly impacts economic growth. The results are consistent even after addressing endogeneity concerns using system GMM and auto-correlated explanatory growth variables using the PCSE estimation. Our results indicate that a percent increase in geopolitical risk increases economic growth to 3.3%. For the cohort of advanced and emerging economies, our result shows that the advanced economies can better mitigate any geopolitical shocks and experience favorable growth rates. On the other hand, emerging economies posit a detrimental impact of geopolitical risk on their economic growth, thereby indicating an asymmetric effect between the two sets of economies. Further, macroeconomic conditions and institutional factors play a significant role in determining the impact of geopolitical risk on the economic growth of 41 countries. In the presence of institutional factors like democracy and economic freedom, the relationship between geopolitical risk and economic growth remains intact. In the context of geopolitical risk, these institutional factors stimulate economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article considers tests of alpha in linear factor pricing models when the number of securities, N , is much larger than the time dimension, T , of the individual return series. We focus on class of tests that are based on Student's t -tests of individual securities which have a number of advantages over the existing standardized Wald type tests, and propose a test procedure that allows for non-Gaussianity and general forms of weakly cross-correlated errors. It does not require estimation of an invertible error covariance matrix, it is much faster to implement, and is valid even if N is much larger than T. We also show that the proposed test can account for some limited degree of pricing errors allowed under Ross's arbitrage pricing theory condition. Monte Carlo evidence shows that the proposed test performs remarkably well even when T  =   60 and N  =   5000. The test is applied to monthly returns on securities in the S&P 500 at the end of each month in real time, using rolling windows of size 60. Statistically significant evidence against Sharpe–Lintner capital asset pricing model and Fama–French three and five factor models are found mainly during the period of Great Recession (2007M12–2009M06). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]