Shanghai has experienced rapid urbanization over the past 30 years, with a large number of rural areas being transformed into semi-urbanized areas with mixed functions. The main drivers were top-down state-led development, market forces, and bottom-up rural industrialization. The scale and speed of this process have far exceeded expectations, leading to a series of socio-ecological problems such as population loss, industrial decline, and environmental pollution. Based on the analysis, this dissertation identifies two development directions: industrial restructuring and ecological protection, to cope with the uncertainty of population growth, a scenario-building approach is used to explore the optimal strategies under different circumstances. Design strategies are extracted through scenario evaluation and applied to strategic planning., Architecture, Urbanism and Building Sciences | Urbanism