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1. Estimation of the incubation period and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Delta variants from contact tracing data

Author

Manica, Mattia, Litvinova, Maria, De Bellis, Alfredo, Guzzetta, Giorgio, Mancuso, Pamela, Vicentini, Massimo, Venturelli, Francesco, Bisaccia, Eufemia, Bento, Ana I., Poletti, Piero, Marziano, Valentina, Zardini, Agnese, d'Andrea, Valeria, Trentini, Filippo, Bella, Antonino, Riccardo, Flavia, Pezzotti, Patrizio, Ajelli, Marco, Rossi, Paolo Giorgi, Merler, Stefano, and Group, the Reggio Emilia COVID-19 Working

Subjects
Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution, Quantitative Biology - Quantitative Methods
Abstract

Background. During 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic was characterized by the emergence of lineages with increased fitness. For most of these variants, quantitative information is scarce on epidemiological quantities such as the incubation period and generation time, which are critical for both public health decisions and scientific research. Method. We analyzed a dataset collected during contact tracing activities in the province of Reggio Emilia, Italy, throughout 2021. We determined the distributions of the incubation period using information on negative PCR tests and the date of last exposure from 282 symptomatic cases. We estimated the distributions of the intrinsic generation time (the time between the infection dates of an infector and its secondary cases under a fully susceptible population) using a Bayesian inference approach applied to 4,435 SARS-CoV-2 cases clustered in 1,430 households where at least one secondary case was recorded. Results. We estimated a mean incubation period of 4.9 days (95% credible intervals, CrI, 4.4-5.4; 95 percentile of the mean distribution: 1-12) for Alpha and 4.5 days (95%CrI 4.0-5.0; 95 percentile: 1-10) for Delta. The intrinsic generation time was estimated to have a mean of 6.0 days (95% CrI 5.6-6.4; 95 percentile: 1-15) for Alpha and of 6.6 days (95%CrI 6.0-7.3; 95 percentile: 1-18) for Delta. The household serial interval was 2.6 days (95%CrI 2.4-2.7) for Alpha and 2.4 days (95%CrI 2.2-2.6) for Delta, and the estimated proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission was 54-55% for both variants. Conclusions. These results indicate limited differences in the incubation period and intrinsic generation time of SARS-CoV-2 variants Alpha and Delta compared to ancestral lineages., Comment: 11 pages, 3 figures, 2 tables, supplementary material

Published
2022

3. Comparing accuracy of tomosynthesis plus digital mammography or synthetic 2D mammography in breast cancer screening: baseline results of the MAITA RCT consortium

Author

Giorgi Rossi, Paolo, Mancuso, Pamela, Pattacini, Pierpaolo, Campari, Cinzia, Nitrosi, Andrea, Iotti, Valentina, Ponti, Antonio, Frigerio, Alfonso, Correale, Loredana, Riggi, Emilia, Giordano, Livia, Segnan, Nereo, Di Leo, Giovanni, Magni, Veronica, Sardanelli, Francesco, Fornasa, Francesca, Romanucci, Giovanna, Montemezzi, Stefania, Falini, Patrizia, Auzzi, Noemi, Zappa, Marco, Ottone, Marta, Mantellini, Paola, Duffy, Stephen W., Armaroli, Paola, Coriani, Chiara, Pescarolo, Manuela, Stefanelli, Gloria, Tondelli, Giulio, Beretti, Filippo, Caffarri, Sabrina, Marchesi, Vanessa, Canovi, Laura, Colli, Marco, Boschini, Mirco, Bertolini, Marco, Ragazzi, Moira, Ginocchi, Vladimiro, Ravaioli, Sara, Vacondio, Rita, Caroli, Stefania, Braglia, Luca, Cavuto, Silvio, Mancuso., Pamela, Djuric, Olivera, Venturelli, Francesco, Vicentini, Massimo, Braghiroli, Maria Barbara, Lonetti, Jasmine, Davoli, Elena, Bonelli, Efrem, Lucchi, Ilaria, Martello, Gessica, Rossati, Claudia, Ambrogetti, Daniela, Iossa, Anna, Carnesciali, Eva, Mazzalupo, Vincenzo, Puliti, Donella, Battisti, Francesca, Auzzi., Noemi, Verdi, Simona, Degl’Innocenti, Carolina, Tramalloni, Daniela, Cavazza, Elena, Busoni, Simone, Betti, Elisa, Peruzzi, Francesca, Regini, Francesco, Sardanelli., Francesco, Di Leo., Giovanni, Carbonaro, Luca Alessandro, Magni., Veronica, Cozzi, Andrea, Spinelli, Diana, Monaco, Cristian Giuseppe, Schiaffino, Simone, Benedek, Adrienn, Menicagli, Laura, Ferraris, Raffaella, Favettini, Elisabetta, Dettori, Davide, Falco, Paolo, Presti, Pietro, Segnan., Nereo, Armaroli., Paola, Marra, Vincenzo, Milanesio, Luisella, Artuso, Franca, Di Leo, Aurora, Castellano, Isabella, Riggi., Emilia, Casella, Denise, Pitarella, Sabina, Vergini, Viviana, Graewingholt, Axel, Lang, Kristina, and Falcini, Fabio

Published
2024
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4. SARS-CoV-2 transmission patterns in educational settings during the Alpha wave in Reggio-Emilia, Italy

Author

Molina Grané, Carla, Mancuso, Pamela, Vicentini, Massimo, Venturelli, Francesco, Djuric, Olivera, Manica, Mattia, Guzzetta, Giorgio, Marziano, Valentina, Zardini, Agnese, d’Andrea, Valeria, Trentini, Filippo, Bisaccia, Eufemia, Larosa, Elisabetta, Cilloni, Silvia, Cassinadri, Maria Teresa, Pezzotti, Patrizio, Ajelli, Marco, Rossi, Paolo Giorgi, Merler, Stefano, and Poletti, Piero

Published
2023
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8. Asbestos exposure and asbestosis mortality in Italian cement‐asbestos cohorts: Dose‐response relationship and the role of competing death causes.

Author

Girardi, Paolo, Rigoni, Sara, Ferrante, Daniela, Silvestri, Stefano, Angelini, Alessia, Cuccaro, Francesco, Oddone, Enrico, Vicentini, Massimo, Barone‐Adesi, Francesco, Tunesi, Sara, Migliore, Enrica, Roncaglia, Francesca, Sala, Orietta, Pirastu, Roberta, Chellini, Elisabetta, Miligi, Lucia, Perticaroli, Patrizia, Bressan, Vittoria, Merler, Enzo, and Azzolina, Danila

Subjects
HEALTH risk assessment, PERITONEAL cancer, CARDIOVASCULAR system, ASBESTOS, CAUSES of death
Abstract

Objectives: In Italy, asbestos was used intensively until its ban in 1992, which was extended for asbestos cement factories until 1994. The aim of this study was to evaluate the dose–response between asbestos exposure and asbestosis mortality across a pool of Italian occupational cohorts, taking into account the presence of competing risks. Methods: Cohorts were followed for vital status and the cause of death was ascertained by a linkage with mortality registers. Cause‐specific (CS) Cox‐regression models were used to evaluate the dose‐exposure relationship between asbestosis mortality and the time‐dependent cumulative exposure index (CEI) to asbestos. Fine and Gray regression models were computed to assess the effect of competing risks of death. Results: The cohort included 12,963 asbestos cement workers. During the follow‐up period (1960−2012), of a total of 6961 deaths, we observed 416 deaths attributed to asbestosis, 879 to lung cancer, 400 to primary pleural cancer, 135 to peritoneal cancer, and 1825 to diseases of the circulatory system. The CS model showed a strong association between CEI and asbestosis mortality. Dose–response models estimated an increasing trend in mortality even below a CEI of 25 ff/mL‐years. Lung cancer and circulatory diseases were the main competing causes of death. Conclusions: Asbestos exposure among Italian asbestos‐cement workers has led to a very high number of deaths from asbestosis and asbestos‐related diseases. The increasing risk trend associated with excess deaths, even at low exposure levels, suggests that the proposed limit values would not have been adequate to prevent disability and mortality from asbestosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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9. Comparing accuracy of tomosynthesis plus digital mammography or synthetic 2D mammography in breast cancer screening: baseline results of the MAITA RCT consortium

Author

Rossi, Paolo Giorgi, primary, Mancuso, Pamela, additional, Pattacini, Pierpaolo, additional, Campari, Cinzia, additional, Nitrosi, Andrea, additional, Iotti, Valentina, additional, Ponti, Antonio, additional, Frigerio, Alfonso, additional, Correale, Loredana, additional, Riggi, Emilia, additional, Giordano, Livia, additional, Segnan, Nereo, additional, Di Leo, Giovanni, additional, Magni, Veronica, additional, Sardanelli, Francesco, additional, Fornasa, Francesca, additional, Romanucci, Giovanna, additional, Montemezzi, Stefania, additional, Falini, Patrizia, additional, Auzzi, Noemi, additional, Zappa, Marco, additional, Ottone, Marta, additional, Mantellini, Paola, additional, Duffy, Stephen W, additional, Armaroli, Paola, additional, Coriani, Chiara, additional, Pescarolo, Manuela, additional, Stefanelli, Gloria, additional, Tondelli, Giulio, additional, Beretti, Filippo, additional, Caffarri, Sabrina, additional, Marchesi, Vanessa, additional, Canovi, Laura, additional, Colli, Marco, additional, Boschini, Mirco, additional, Bertolini, Marco, additional, Ragazzi, Moira, additional, Rossi., Paolo Giorgi, additional, Ginocchi, Vladimiro, additional, Ravaioli, Sara, additional, Vacondio, Rita, additional, Caroli, Stefania, additional, Braglia, Luca, additional, Cavuto, Silvio, additional, Mancuso., Pamela, additional, Djuric, Olivera, additional, Venturelli, Francesco, additional, Vicentini, Massimo, additional, Braghiroli, Maria Barbara, additional, Lonetti, Jasmine, additional, Davoli, Elena, additional, Bonelli, Efrem, additional, Lucchi, Ilaria, additional, Martello, Gessica, additional, Rossati, Claudia, additional, Ambrogetti, Daniela, additional, Iossa, Anna, additional, Carnesciali, Eva, additional, Mazzalupo, Vincenzo, additional, Puliti, Donella, additional, Battisti, Francesca, additional, Auzzi., Noemi, additional, Verdi, Simona, additional, Degl’Innocenti, Carolina, additional, Tramalloni, Daniela, additional, Cavazza, Elena, additional, Busoni, Simone, additional, Betti, Elisa, additional, Sardanelli., Francesco, additional, Di Leo., Giovanni, additional, Carbonaro, Luca Alessandro, additional, Magni., Veronica, additional, Cozzi, Andrea, additional, Spinelli, Diana, additional, Monaco, Cristian Giuseppe, additional, Schiaffino, Simone, additional, Benedek, Adrienn, additional, Menicagli, Laura, additional, Ferraris, Raffaella, additional, Favettini, Elisabetta, additional, Dettori, Davide, additional, Falco, Paolo, additional, Presti, Pietro, additional, Segnan., Nereo, additional, Armaroli., Paola, additional, Marra, Vincenzo, additional, Milanesio, Luisella, additional, Artuso, Franca, additional, Di Leo, Aurora, additional, Castellano, Isabella, additional, Riggi., Emilia, additional, Casella, Denise, additional, Pitarella, Sabina, additional, Vergini, Viviana, additional, Graewingholt, Axel, additional, Lang, Kristina, additional, and Falcini, Fabio, additional

Published
2024
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15. Rate advancement measurement for lung cancer and pleural mesothelioma in asbestos-exposed workers.

Author

Azzolina, Danila, Consonni, Dario, Ferrante, Daniela, Mirabelli, Dario, Silvestri, Stefano, Luberto, Ferdinando, Angelini, Alessia, Cuccaro, Francesco, Nannavecchia, Anna Maria, Oddone, Enrico, Vicentini, Massimo, Adesi, Francesco Barone, Cena, Tiziana, Mangone, Lucia, Roncaglia, Francesca, Barone-Adesi, Francesco, Sala, Orietta, Menegozzo, Simona, Pirastu, Roberta, and Tunesi, Sara

Subjects
LUNG cancer, MESOTHELIOMA, PLEURA diseases, CAUSE of death statistics, PLEURA cancer
Abstract

Introduction: Exposure to asbestos increases the risk of lung cancer and mesothelioma. Few studies quantified the premature occurrence of these diseases in asbestos-exposed workers. Focus on premature disease onset (rate advancement or acceleration) can be useful in risk communication and for the evaluation of exposure impact. We estimated rate advancement for total mortality, lung cancer and pleural mesothelioma deaths, by classes of cumulative asbestos exposure in a pooled cohort of asbestos cement (AC) workers in Italy.Method: The cohort study included 12 578 workers from 21 cohorts, with 6626 deaths in total, 858 deaths from lung cancer and 394 from pleural malignant neoplasm (MN). Rate advancement was estimated by fitting a competitive mortality Weibull model to the hazard of death over time since first exposure (TSFE).Result: Acceleration time (AT) was estimated at different TSFE values. The highest level of cumulative exposure compared with the lowest, for pleural MN AT was 16.9 (95% CI 14.9 to 19.2) and 33.8 (95% CI 29.8 to 38.4) years at TSFE of 20 and 40 years, respectively. For lung cancer, it was 13.3 (95% CI 12.0 to 14.7) and 26.6 (95% CI 23.9 to 29.4) years, respectively. As for total mortality, AT was 3.35 (95% CI 2.98 to 3.71) years at 20 years TSFE, and 6.70 (95% CI 5.95 to 7.41) at 40 years TSFE.Conclusion: The current study observed marked rate advancement after asbestos exposure for lung cancer and pleural mesothelioma, as well as for total mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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17. Rate advancement measurement for lung cancer and pleural mesothelioma in asbestos-exposed workers

Author

Azzolina, Danila, primary, Consonni, Dario, additional, Ferrante, Daniela, additional, Mirabelli, Dario, additional, Silvestri, Stefano, additional, Luberto, Ferdinando, additional, Angelini, Alessia, additional, Cuccaro, Francesco, additional, Nannavecchia, Anna Maria, additional, Oddone, Enrico, additional, Vicentini, Massimo, additional, Barone-Adesi, Francesco, additional, Cena, Tiziana, additional, Mangone, Lucia, additional, Roncaglia, Francesca, additional, Sala, Orietta, additional, Menegozzo, Simona, additional, Pirastu, Roberta, additional, Tunesi, Sara, additional, Chellini, Elisabetta, additional, Miligi, Lucia, additional, Perticaroli, Patrizia, additional, Pettinari, Aldo, additional, Bressan, Vittoria, additional, Merler, Enzo, additional, Girardi, Paolo, additional, Bisceglia, Lucia, additional, Marinaccio, Alessandro, additional, Massari, Stefania, additional, and Magnani, Corrado, additional

Published
2022
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18. Estimation of the incubation period and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Delta variants from contact tracing data

Author

Manica, Mattia, Litvinova, Maria, De Bellis, Alfredo, Guzzetta, Giorgio, Mancuso, Pamela, Vicentini, Massimo, Venturelli, Francesco, Bisaccia, Eufemia, Bento, Ana I, Poletti, Piero, Marziano, Valentina, Zardini, Agnese, D'Andrea, Valeria, Trentini, Filippo, Bella, Antonino, Riccardo, Flavia, Pezzotti, Patrizio, Ajelli, Marco, Giorgi Rossi, Paolo, and Merler, Stefano

Subjects
SARS-CoV-2 variants, Epidemiology, Bayesian inference, generation time, CONTACT TRACING, GENERATION TIME, SARS-COV-2 VARIANTS, Infectious Diseases, Contact tracing, BAYESIAN INFERENCE, INCUBATION PERIOD, Incubation period, BAYESIAN INFERENCE, SARS-COV-2 VARIANTS, CONTACT TRACING, GENERATION TIME, INCUBATION PERIOD
Abstract

Quantitative information on epidemiological quantities such as the incubation period and generation time of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants is scarce. We analysed a dataset collected during contact tracing activities in the province of Reggio Emilia, Italy, throughout 2021. We determined the distributions of the incubation period for the Alpha and Delta variants using information on negative polymerase chain reaction tests and the date of last exposure from 282 symptomatic cases. We estimated the distributions of the intrinsic generation time using a Bayesian inference approach applied to 9724 SARS-CoV-2 cases clustered in 3545 households where at least one secondary case was recorded. We estimated a mean incubation period of 4.9 days (95% credible intervals, CrI, 4.4–5.4) for Alpha and 4.5 days (95% CrI 4.0–5.0) for Delta. The intrinsic generation time was estimated to have a mean of 7.12 days (95% CrI 6.27–8.44) for Alpha and of 6.52 days (95% CrI 5.54–8.43) for Delta. The household serial interval was 2.43 days (95% CrI 2.29–2.58) for Alpha and 2.74 days (95% CrI 2.62–2.88) for Delta, and the estimated proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission was 48–51% for both variants. These results indicate limited differences in the incubation period and intrinsic generation time of SARS-CoV-2 variants Alpha and Delta compared to ancestral lineages.

Published
2023

21. Intrinsic generation time of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant: An observational study of household transmission

Author

Manica, Mattia, primary, De Bellis, Alfredo, additional, Guzzetta, Giorgio, additional, Mancuso, Pamela, additional, Vicentini, Massimo, additional, Venturelli, Francesco, additional, Zerbini, Alessandro, additional, Bisaccia, Eufemia, additional, Litvinova, Maria, additional, Menegale, Francesco, additional, Molina Grané, Carla, additional, Poletti, Piero, additional, Marziano, Valentina, additional, Zardini, Agnese, additional, d'Andrea, Valeria, additional, Trentini, Filippo, additional, Bella, Antonino, additional, Riccardo, Flavia, additional, Pezzotti, Patrizio, additional, Ajelli, Marco, additional, Giorgi Rossi, Paolo, additional, and Merler, Stefano, additional

Published
2022
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22. Comparison between two cancer registry quality check systems: functional features and differences in an Italian network of cancer registries dataset.

Author

Tagliabue, Giovanna, Perotti, Viviana, Fabiano, Sabrina, Tittarelli, Andrea, Barigelletti, Giulio, Contiero, Paolo, Mazzucco, Walter, Fusco, Mario, Bidoli, Ettore, Vicentini, Massimo, Pesce, Maria Teresa, and Stracci, Fabrizio

Subjects
TUMOR grading, DATA quality, QUALITY control, TUMOR classification, TUMOR diagnosis
Abstract

Purpose: The aim of this study was to compare the functional characteristics of two computer-based systems for quality control of cancer registry data through analysis of their output differences. Methods: The study used cancer incidence data from 22 of the 49 registries of the Italian Network of Cancer Registries registered between 1986 and 2017. Two different data checking systems developed by the WHO International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and the Joint Research Center (JRC) with the European Network of Cancer Registries (ENCR) and routinely used by registrars were used to check the quality of the data. The outputs generated by the two systems on the same dataset of each registry were analyzed and compared. Results: The study included a total of 1,305,689 cancer cases. The overall quality of the dataset was high, with 86% (81.7-94.1) microscopically verified cases and only 1.3% (0.03-3.06) cases with a diagnosis by death certificate only. The two check systems identified a low percentage of errors (JRC-ENCR 0.17% and IARC 0.003%) and about the same proportion of warnings (JRC-ENCR 2.79% and IARC 2.42%) in the dataset. Forty-two cases (2% of errors) and 7067 cases (11.5% of warnings) were identified by both systems in equivalent categories. 11.7% of warnings related to TNM staging were identified by the JRC-ENCR system only. The IARC system identified mainly incorrect combination of tumor grade and morphology (72.5% of warnings). Conclusion: Both systems apply checks on a common set of variables, but some variables are checked by only one of the systems (for example, checks on patient follow-up and tumor stage at diagnosis are included by the JRC-ENCR system only). Most errors and warnings were categorized differently by the two systems, but usually described the same issues, with warnings related to "morphology" (JRC-ENCR) and "histology" (IARC) being the most frequent. It is important to find the right balance between the need to maintain high standards of data quality and the workability of such systems in the daily routine of the cancer registry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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23. Incidence and Characteristics of Adverse Events after COVID-19 Vaccination in a Population-Based Programme

Author

Bonzano, Laura, primary, Djuric, Olivera, additional, Mancuso, Pamela, additional, Fares, Lidia, additional, Brancaccio, Raffaele, additional, Ottone, Marta, additional, Bisaccia, Eufemia, additional, Vicentini, Massimo, additional, Cocconcelli, Alessia, additional, Motolese, Alfonso, additional, Boyko, Rostyslav, additional, Giorgi Rossi, Paolo, additional, and Motolese, Alberico, additional

Published
2022
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24. Worldwide trends in population-based survival for children, adolescents, and young adults diagnosed with leukaemia, by subtype, during 2000–14 (CONCORD-3): analysis of individual data from 258 cancer registries in 61 countries

Author

Ssenyonga, Naomi, primary, Stiller, Charles, additional, Nakata, Kayo, additional, Shalkow, Jaime, additional, Redmond, Shelagh, additional, Bulliard, Jean-Luc, additional, Girardi, Fabio, additional, Fowler, Christine, additional, Marcos-Gragera, Rafael, additional, Bonaventure, Audrey, additional, Saint-Jacques, Nathalie, additional, Minicozzi, Pamela, additional, De, Prithwish, additional, Rodríguez-Barranco, Miguel, additional, Larønningen, Siri, additional, Di Carlo, Veronica, additional, Mägi, Margit, additional, Valkov, Mikhail, additional, Seppä, Karri, additional, Wyn Huws, Dyfed, additional, Coleman, Michel P, additional, Allemani, Claudia, additional, Bouzbid, Sabiha, additional, Hamdi-Chérif, Mokhtar, additional, Kara, Lamia, additional, Meguenni, Kaouel, additional, Regagba, Derbali, additional, Bayo, Sine, additional, Cheick Bougadari, Traore, additional, Manraj, Shyam Shunker, additional, Bendahhou, Karima, additional, Ladipo, Akinade, additional, Ogunbiyi, Olufemi, additional, Somdyala, Nontuthuzelo, additional, Chaplin, María Agustina, additional, Moreno, Florencia, additional, Calabrano, Gladis, additional, Espinola, Silvia, additional, Carballo Quintero, Beatriz, additional, Fita, Rosalba, additional, Laspada, Walter, additional, Ibañez, Susana, additional, Lima, Carlos, additional, Mafra Da Costa, Allini, additional, De Souza, Paulo César, additional, Chaves, Juliana, additional, Laporte, Cyntia, additional, Curado, Maria Paula, additional, de Oliveira, Jose Carlos, additional, Veneziano, Claudia, additional, Veneziano, Donaldo, additional, Almeida, Ana Beatriz, additional, Latorre, Maria, additional, Azevedo e Silva, Gulnar, additional, Rebelo, Marise, additional, Santos, Marceli, additional, Galaz, Juan, additional, Aparicio Aravena, Mackarena, additional, Sanhueza Monsalve, Jocelyn, additional, Herrmann, Denise, additional, Vargas, Solange, additional, Herrera, Victor, additional, Uribe, Claudia, additional, Bravo, Luis Eduardo, additional, Garcia, Luz Stella, additional, Arias-Ortiz, Nelson, additional, Morantes, Daniela, additional, Jurado, Daniel, additional, Yépez Chamorro, María, additional, Delgado, Sandra, additional, Ramirez, Melissa, additional, Galán Alvarez, Yaima, additional, Torres, Priscila, additional, Martínez-Reyes, Fray, additional, Jaramillo, Leyda, additional, Quinto, Rina, additional, Castillo, Jhoanna, additional, Mendoza, Mariela, additional, Cueva, Patricia, additional, Yépez, José, additional, Bhakkan, Bernard, additional, Deloumeaux, Jacqueline, additional, Joachim, Clarisse, additional, Macni, Jonathan, additional, Carrillo, Rodolfo, additional, Shalkow Klincovstein, Jaime, additional, Rivera Gomez, Rebeca, additional, Perez, Patricia, additional, Poquioma, Ebert, additional, Tortolero-Luna, Guillermo, additional, Zavala, Diego, additional, Alonso, Rafael, additional, Barrios, Enrique, additional, Eckstrand, Angela, additional, Nikiforuk, Cindy, additional, Woods, Ryan, additional, Noonan, Gail, additional, Turner, Donna, additional, Kumar, Eshwar, additional, Zhang, Bin, additional, Dowden, Jeff, additional, Doyle, Gregory, additional, Walsh, Gordon, additional, Anam, Aniq, additional, McClure, Carol, additional, Vriends, Kim, additional, Bertrand, Christine, additional, Ramanakumar, Agnihotram, additional, Kozie, Serena, additional, Stuart-Panko, Heather, additional, Freeman, Tara, additional, George, Justin, additional, Avila, Rosa, additional, O'Brien, David, additional, Holt, Abby, additional, Almon, Lyn, additional, Ward, Kevin, additional, Kwong, Sandy, additional, Morris, Cyllene, additional, Rycroft, Randi, additional, Mueller, Lloyd, additional, Phillips, Cathryn, additional, Brown, Heather, additional, Cromartie, Betsy, additional, Ruterbusch, Julie, additional, Schwartz, Ann, additional, Levin, Gary, additional, Wohler, Brad, additional, Bayakly, Rana, additional, Gomez, Scarlett, additional, McKinley, Meg, additional, Cress, Rosemary, additional, Davis, Joni, additional, Hernandez, Brenda, additional, Johnson, Christopher, additional, Morawski, Bozena, additional, Ruppert, Laura, additional, Bentler, Suzanne, additional, Charlton, Mary, additional, Huang, Bin, additional, Tucker, Thomas, additional, Deapen, Dennis, additional, Liu, Lihua, additional, Hsieh, Mei-Chin, additional, Wu, Xiao-Cheng, additional, Schwenn, Molly, additional, Stern, Kimberly, additional, Gershman, Susan, additional, Knowlton, Richard, additional, Alverson, Georgetta, additional, Weaver, Tamara, additional, Desai, Jay, additional, Rogers, Deirdre, additional, Jackson-Thompson, Jeanette, additional, Lemons, Debbi, additional, Zimmerman, Heather, additional, Hood, Michelle, additional, Roberts-Johnson, Jenifer, additional, Hammond, Whitney, additional, Rees, Judith, additional, Pawlish, Karen, additional, Stroup, Antoinette, additional, Key, Charles, additional, Wiggins, Charles, additional, Kahn, Amy, additional, Schymura, Maria, additional, Radhakrishnan, Soundarya, additional, Rao, Chandrika, additional, Giljahn, Lynn, additional, Slocumb, Roberta, additional, Dabbs, Christy, additional, Espinoza, Raffaella, additional, Aird, Karen, additional, Beran, Todd, additional, Rubertone, Jim, additional, Slack, Stephen, additional, Oh, Junhie, additional, Janes, Tiffany, additional, Schwartz, Stephen, additional, Chiodini, Stephanie, additional, Hurley, Deborah, additional, Whiteside, Martin, additional, Rai, Saroj, additional, Williams, Melanie, additional, Herget, Kim, additional, Sweeney, Carol, additional, Johnson, Alison, additional, Keitheri Cheteri, Mahesh, additional, Migliore Santiago, Patti, additional, Blankenship, Steven, additional, Farley, Shawn, additional, Borchers, Robert, additional, Malicki, Robin, additional, Espinoza, Julia, additional, Grandpre, Joseph, additional, Edwards, Brenda, additional, Mariotto, Angela, additional, Weir, Hannah, additional, Wilson, Reda, additional, Wang, Ning, additional, Yang, Lei, additional, Chen, Jian-Shun, additional, He, Yu-Tong, additional, Song, Guo-Hui, additional, Gu, Xiao-Ping, additional, Mei, Dan, additional, Ge, Heng-Ming, additional, Wu, Tong-Hao, additional, Li, Yan-Yan, additional, Zhao, De-Li, additional, Jin, Feng, additional, Zhang, Jian-Hua, additional, Zhu, Feng-Dong, additional, Junhua, Qian, additional, Yang, Yan Lei, additional, Jiang, Chun-Xiao, additional, Biao, Wang, additional, Wang, Jian, additional, Li, Qi-Long, additional, Yi, He, additional, Zhou, Xin, additional, Dong, JianMei, additional, Li, WeiWei, additional, Fu, Fang-Xian, additional, Chen, Jian-Guo, additional, Zhu, Jian, additional, Li, Yan-Hua, additional, Lu, Yu-Qiang, additional, Fan, Min, additional, Huang, Su-Qin, additional, Guo, Guo-Ping, additional, Zhaolai, Hua, additional, Wei, Kuangrong, additional, Chen, Wan-Qing, additional, Wei, Wenqiang, additional, Zeng, Hongmei, additional, Demetriou, Anna, additional, Mang, Wai Kong, additional, Ngan, Kai Cheong, additional, Kataki, Amal, additional, Krishnatreya, Manigreeva, additional, Jayalekshmi, Padmavathi Amma, additional, Sebastian, Paul, additional, George, Preethi, additional, Mathew, Aleyamma, additional, Nandakumar, Ambakumar, additional, Malekzadeh, Reza, additional, Roshandel, Gholamreza, additional, Keinan-Boker, Lital, additional, Silverman, Barbara, additional, Ito, Hidemi, additional, Koyanagi, Yuriko, additional, Sato, Masako, additional, Tobori, Fumio, additional, Nakata, Ichiro, additional, Teramoto, Norihiro, additional, Hattori, Masakazu, additional, Kaizaki, Yasuharu, additional, Moki, Fumitaka, additional, Sugiyama, Hiromi, additional, Utada, Mai, additional, Nishimura, Makiko, additional, Yoshida, Keiichi, additional, Kurosawa, Katsuki, additional, Nemoto, Yuji, additional, Narimatsu, Hiroto, additional, Sakaguchi, Masahiko, additional, Kanemura, Seiki, additional, Naito, Michiko, additional, Narisawa, Rintaro, additional, Miyashiro, Isao, additional, Mori, Daisuke, additional, Yoshitake, Mayuko, additional, Oki, Izumi, additional, Fukushima, Norimasa, additional, Shibata, Akiko, additional, Iwasa, Keiichiro, additional, Ono, Chie, additional, Matsuda, Tomohiro, additional, Nimri, Omar, additional, Jung, Kyu-Won, additional, Won, Young-Joo, additional, Alawadhi, Eiman, additional, Elbasmi, Amani, additional, Ab Manan, Azizah, additional, Adam, Farzaana, additional, Nansalmaa, Erdenekhuu, additional, Tudev, Undarmaa, additional, Ochir, Chimedsuren, additional, Al Khater, Al Hareth, additional, El Mistiri, Mufid, additional, Lim, Gek Hsiang, additional, Teo, Yik Ying, additional, Chiang, Chun-Ju, additional, Lee, Wen-Chung, additional, Buasom, Rangsiya, additional, Sangrajrang, Suleeporn, additional, Suwanrungruang, Krittika, additional, Vatanasapt, Patravoot, additional, Daoprasert, Karnchana, additional, Pongnikorn, Donsuk, additional, Leklob, Atit, additional, Sangkitipaiboon, Somphob, additional, Geater, Sarayut, additional, Sriplung, Hutcha, additional, Ceylan, Okan, additional, Kög, Iskender, additional, Dirican, Oya, additional, Köse, Tülay, additional, Gurbuz, Tulın, additional, Karašahin, Füsun Emine, additional, Turhan, Duygu, additional, Aktaş, Umut, additional, Halat, Yakup, additional, Eser, Sultan, additional, Yakut, Cankut, additional, Altinisik, Merve, additional, Cavusoglu, Yasar, additional, Türkköylü, Ayşe, additional, Üçüncü, Nuršen, additional, Hackl, Monika, additional, Zborovskaya, Anna, additional, Aleinikova, Olga, additional, Henau, Kris, additional, Van Eycken, Liesbet, additional, Atanasov, Trayan, additional, Valerianova, Zdravka, additional, Šekerija, Mario, additional, Dušek, Ladislav, additional, Zvolský, Miroslav, additional, Steinrud Mørch, Lina, additional, Storm, Hans, additional, Wessel Skovlund, Charlotte, additional, Innos, Kaire, additional, Malila, Nea, additional, Jégu, Jérémie, additional, Velten, Michel, additional, Cornet, Edouard, additional, Troussard, Xavier, additional, Bouvier, Anne-Marie, additional, Guizard, Anne-Valérie, additional, Bouvier, Véronique, additional, Launoy, Guy, additional, Dabakuyo Yonli, Sandrine, additional, Poillot, Marie-Laure, additional, Maynadié, Marc, additional, Mounier, Morgane, additional, Vaconnet, Lina, additional, Woronoff, Anne-Sophie, additional, Daoulas, Mélanie, additional, Robaszkiewicz, Michel, additional, Clavel, Jacqueline, additional, Poulalhon, Claire, additional, Desandes, Emmanuel, additional, Lacour, Brigitte, additional, Baldi, Isabelle, additional, Pouchieu, Camille, additional, Amadeo, Brice, additional, Coureau, Gaëlle, additional, Monnereau, Alain, additional, Audoin, Magali, additional, D'Almeida, Tania, additional, Boyer, Séverine, additional, Hammas, Karima, additional, Trétarre, Brigitte, additional, Colonna, Marc, additional, Delafosse, Patricia, additional, Plouvier, Sandrine, additional, Cowppli-Bony, Anne, additional, Molinié, Florence, additional, Bara, Simona, additional, Ganry, Olivier, additional, Lapôtre-Ledoux, Bénédicte, additional, Daubisse-Marliac, Laetitia, additional, Bossard, Nadine, additional, Estève, Jacques, additional, Uhry, Zoé, additional, Stabenow, Roland, additional, Wilsdorf-Köhler, Heide, additional, Eberle, Andrea, additional, Luttmann, Sabine, additional, Löhden, Imma, additional, Nennecke, Alice, additional, Kieschke, Joachim, additional, Sirri, Eunice, additional, Justenhoven, Christina, additional, Zeissig, Sylke, additional, Holleczek, Bernd, additional, Eisemann, Nora, additional, Katalinic, Alexander, additional, Asquez, Rachelle, additional, Kumar, Vijay, additional, Petridou, Eleni, additional, Ólafsdóttir, Elínborg, additional, Tryggvadóttir, Laufey, additional, Murray, Deirdre, additional, Walsh, Paul, additional, Sundseth, Hildrun, additional, Mazzoleni, Guido, additional, Vittadello, Fabio, additional, Coviello, Enzo, additional, Cuccaro, Francesco, additional, Galasso, Rocco, additional, Sampietro, Giuseppe, additional, Magoni, Michele, additional, Ardizzone, Antonino, additional, D'Argenzio, Angelo, additional, Di Prima, Alessia Anna, additional, Ippolito, Antonella, additional, Lavecchia, Anna Maria, additional, Sutera Sardo, Antonella, additional, Gola, Gemma, additional, Ballotari, Paola, additional, Giacomazzi, Erica, additional, Ferretti, Stefano, additional, Dal Maso, Luigino, additional, Serraino, Diego, additional, Celesia, Maria Vittoria, additional, Filiberti, Rosa Angela, additional, Pannozzo, Fabio, additional, Melcarne, Anna, additional, Quarta, Fabrizio, additional, Andreano, Anita, additional, Russo, Antonio Giampiero, additional, Carrozzi, Giuliano, additional, Cirilli, Claudia, additional, Cavalieri d'Oro, Luca, additional, Rognoni, Magda, additional, Fusco, Mario, additional, Vitale, Maria Francesca, additional, Usala, Mario, additional, Cusimano, Rosanna, additional, Mazzucco, Walter, additional, Michiara, Maria, additional, Sgargi, Paolo, additional, Boschetti, Lorenza, additional, Chiaranda, Giorgio, additional, Seghini, Pietro, additional, Maule, Milena, additional, Merletti, Franco, additional, Spata, Eugenia, additional, Tumino, Rosario, additional, Mancuso, Pamela, additional, Vicentini, Massimo, additional, Cassetti, Tiziana, additional, Sassatelli, Romano, additional, Falcini, Fabio, additional, Giorgetti, Stefania, additional, Caiazzo, Anna Luisa, additional, Cavallo, Rossella, additional, Piras, Daniela, additional, Bella, Francesca, additional, Madeddu, Anselmo, additional, Fanetti, Anna Clara, additional, Maspero, Sergio, additional, Carone, Simona, additional, Mincuzzi, Antonia, additional, Candela, Giuseppa, additional, Scuderi, Tiziana, additional, Gentilini, Maria Adalgisa, additional, Rizzello, Roberto, additional, Rosso, Stefano, additional, Zanetti, Roberto, additional, Caldarella, Adele, additional, Intrieri, Teresa, additional, Bianconi, Fortunato, additional, Stracci, Fabrizio, additional, Contiero, Paolo, additional, Tagliabue, Giovanna, additional, Rugge, Massimo, additional, Zorzi, Manuel, additional, Beggiato, Simonetta, additional, Brustolin, Angelita, additional, De Angelis, Roberta, additional, Gatta, Gemma, additional, Maurina, Anita, additional, Oniščuka, Marija, additional, Mousavi, Mohsen, additional, Lipunova, Nadezda, additional, Vincerzevskienė, Ieva, additional, Agius, Dominic, additional, Calleja, Neville, additional, Siesling, Sabine, additional, Visser, Otto, additional, Johannesen, Tom, additional, Trojanowski, Maciej, additional, Mierzwa, Tomasz, additional, Rachtan, Jadwiga, additional, Kępska, Kamila, additional, Kościańska, Beata, additional, Wójcik-Tomaszewska, Joanna, additional, Motnyk, Marcin, additional, Gos, Anna, additional, Bielska-Lasota, Magdalena, additional, Didkowska, Joanna, additional, Wojciechowska, Urszula, additional, Forjaz de Lacerda, Gonçalo, additional, Rego, Raul, additional, Carrito, Branca, additional, Pais, Ana, additional, Bento, Maria José, additional, Rodrigues, Jessica, additional, Lourenço, Antonio, additional, Mayer-da-Silva, Alexandra, additional, Blaga, Luminita, additional, Coza, Daniela, additional, Gusenkova, Lubov, additional, Lazarevich, Olga, additional, Prudnikova, Olga, additional, Vjushkov, Dmitri Mikhailovich, additional, Egorova, Alla, additional, Orlov, Andrey, additional, Pikalova, Lidiya, additional, Zhuikova, Lilia, additional, Adamcik, Juraj, additional, Safaei Diba, Chakameh, additional, Zadnik, Vesna, additional, Zagar, Tina, additional, De-La-Cruz, Marta, additional, Lopez-de-Munain, Arantza, additional, Aleman, Araceli, additional, Rojas, Dolores, additional, Chillarón, Rosario Jiménez, additional, Navarro, Ana Isabel Marcos, additional, Puigdemont, Montse, additional, Sánchez Perez, María-José, additional, Franch Sureda, Paula, additional, Ramos Montserrat, Maria, additional, Chirlaque López, Maria Dolores, additional, Sánchez Gil, Antonia, additional, Ardanaz, Eva, additional, Guevara, Marcela, additional, Cañete-Nieto, Adela, additional, Peris-Bonet, Rafael, additional, Carulla, Marià, additional, Galceran, Jaume, additional, Almela, Fernando, additional, Sabater, Consol, additional, Khan, Staffan, additional, Pettersson, David, additional, Dickman, Paul, additional, Staehelin, Katharina, additional, Struchen, Benjamin, additional, Herrmann, Christian, additional, Mousavi, Seyed Mohsen, additional, Egger Hayoz, Céline, additional, Bouchardy, Christine, additional, Schaffar, Robin, additional, Went, Philip, additional, Maspoli-Conconi, Manuela, additional, Kuehni, Claudia, additional, Bordoni, Andrea, additional, Ortelli, Laura, additional, Chiolero, Arnaud, additional, Konzelmann, Isabelle, additional, Rohrmann, Sabine, additional, Wanner, Miriam, additional, Broggio, John, additional, Rashbass, Jem, additional, Fitzpatrick, Deirdre, additional, Gavin, Anna, additional, Morrison, David, additional, Thomson, Catherine, additional, Greene, Giles, additional, Huws, Dyfed, additional, Coleman, Michel, additional, Matz, Melissa, additional, Sanz, Natalia, additional, Ssenyonga, Naomi, additional, Stephens, Richard, additional, Chalker, Elizabeth, additional, Smith, Mirka, additional, Gugusheff, Jessica, additional, You, Hui, additional, Qin Li, Shu, additional, Dugdale, Sarah, additional, Moore, Julie, additional, Philpot, Shoni, additional, Pfeiffer, Rhonda, additional, Thomas, Helen, additional, Silva Ragaini, Bruna, additional, Venn, Alison, additional, Evans, Sue, additional, Te Marvelde, Luc, additional, Savietto, Vedrana, additional, Trevithick, Richard, additional, Currow, David, additional, and Lewis, Chris, additional

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2022
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27. Thyroidectomies in Italy: A Population-Based National Analysis from 2001 to 2018

Author

Pierannunzio, Daniela, Fedeli, Ugo, Francisci, Silvia, De Paoli, Angela, Toffolutti, Federica, Serraino, Diego, Zoppini, Giacomo, Borsatti, Eugenio, Di Felice, Enza, Falcini, Fabio, Ferretti, Stefano, Giorgi Rossi, Paolo, Gobitti, Carlo, Guzzinati, Stefano, Mattioli, Veronica, Mazzoleni, Guido, Piffer, Silvano, Vaccarella, Salvatore, Vicentini, Massimo, Zorzi, Manuel, Franceschi, Silvia, Elisei, Rossella, and Dal Maso, Luigino

Subjects
time trends, Male, Goiter, Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism, age-standardized rates, Incidence, Thyroid Diseases, Endocrinology, thyroidectomies, Italy, Thyroidectomy, Humans, Female, Thyroid Neoplasms, thyroid surgery
Published
2022

28. Thyroidectomies in Italy: A population-based national analysis from 2001 to 2018

Author

Pierannunzio, Daniela, primary, Fedeli, Ugo, additional, Francisci, Silvia, additional, De Paoli, Angela, additional, Toffolutti, Federica, additional, Serraino, Diego, additional, Zoppini, Giacomo, additional, Borsatti, Eugenio, additional, Di Felice, Enza, additional, Falcini, Fabio, additional, Ferretti, Stefano, additional, Giorgi Rossi, Paolo, additional, Gobitti, Carlo, additional, Guzzinati, Stefano, additional, Mattioli, Veronica, additional, Mazzoleni, Guido, additional, Piffer, Silvano, additional, Vaccarella, Salvatore, additional, Vicentini, Massimo, additional, Zorzi, Manuel, additional, Franceschi, Silvia, additional, Elisei, Rossella, additional, and Dal Maso, Luigino, additional

Published
2022
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29. Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Reinfection by Vaccination Status, Predominant Variant, and Time from Previous Infection: A Cohort Study in Italy

Author

Vicentini, Massimo, primary, Venturelli, Francesco, additional, Mancuso, Pamela, additional, Bisaccia, Eufemia, additional, Zerbini, Alessandro, additional, Massari, Marco, additional, Cossarizza, Andrea, additional, De Biasi, Sara, additional, Pezzotti, Patrizio, additional, Bedeschi, Emanuela, additional, and Rossi, Paolo Giorgi, additional

Published
2022
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30. Surveillance, contact tracing and characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in educational settings in Northern Italy, September 2020 to April 2021.

Author

Djuric, Olivera, Larosa, Elisabetta, Cassinadri, Mariateresa, Cilloni, Silvia, Bisaccia, Eufemia, Pepe, Davide, Vicentini, Massimo, Venturelli, Francesco, Bonvicini, Laura, Giorgi Rossi, Paolo, Pezzotti, Patrizio, Mateo Urdiales, Alberto, and Bedeschi, Emanuela

Subjects
CONTACT tracing, SARS-CoV-2, SCHOOL closings, COVID-19 pandemic, VIRAL transmission, DATA analysis
Abstract

Background: The role of school contacts in the spread of the virus and the effectiveness of school closures in controlling the epidemic is still debated. We aimed to quantify the risk of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the school setting by type of school, characteristics of the index case and calendar period in the Province of Reggio Emilia (RE), Italy. The secondary aim was to estimate the speed of implementation of contact tracing. Methods: A population-based analysis of surveillance data on all COVID-19 cases occurring in RE, Italy, from 1 September 2020, to 4 April 2021, for which a school contact and/or exposure was suspected. An indicator of the delay in contact tracing was calculated as the time elapsed since the index case was determined to be positive and the date on which the swab test for classmates was scheduled (or most were scheduled). Results: Overall, 30,184 and 13,608 contacts among classmates and teachers/staff, respectively, were identified and were recommended for testing, and 43,214 (98.7%) underwent the test. Secondary transmission occurred in about 40% of the investigated classes, and the overall secondary case attack rate was 4%. This rate was slightly higher when the index case was a teacher but with almost no differences by type of school, and was stable during the study period. Speed of implementation of contact tracing increased during the study period, with the time from index case identification to testing of contacts being reduced from seven to three days. The ability to identify the possible source of infection in the index case also increased. Conclusions: Despite the spread of the Alpha variant during the study period in RE, the secondary case attack rate remained stable from school reopening in September 2020 until the beginning of April 2021. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2022
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31. Risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection by vaccination status, predominant variant and time from prior infection: a cohort study, Reggio Emilia province, Italy, February 2020 to February 2022.

Author

Vicentini M, Venturelli F, Mancuso P, Bisaccia E, Zerbini A, Massari M, Cossarizza A, De Biasi S, Pezzotti P, Bedeschi E, and Giorgi Rossi P

Subjects
Humans, Cohort Studies, Reinfection epidemiology, Reinfection prevention & control, Italy epidemiology, Vaccination, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 epidemiology, COVID-19 prevention & control
Abstract

BackgroundUnderstanding the epidemiology of reinfections is crucial for SARS-CoV-2 control over a long period.AimTo evaluate the risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection by vaccination status, predominant variant and time after first infection.MethodsWe conducted a cohort study including all residents in the Reggio Emilia province on 31 December 2019, followed up until 28 February 2022 for SARS-CoV-2 first infection and reinfection after 90 days. Cox models were used to compare risk of first infection vs reinfection, adjusting for age, sex, vaccine doses and comorbidities.ResultsThe cohort included 538,516 residents, 121,154 with first SARS-CoV-2 infections and 3,739 reinfections, most in the Omicron BA.1 period. In the pre-Omicron period, three doses of vaccine reduced risk of reinfection by 89% (95% CI: 87-90), prior infection reduced risk by 90% (95% CI: 88-91), while two doses and infection reduced risk by 98% (95% CI: 96-99). In the Omicron BA.1 period, protection estimates were 53% (95% CI: 52-55), 9% (95% CI: 4-14) and 76% (95% CI: 74-77). Before Omicron, protection from reinfection remained above 80% for up to 15 months; with Omicron BA.1, protection decreased from 71% (95% CI: 65-76) at 5 months to 21% (95% CI: 10-30) at 22 months from the first infection. Omicron BA.1 reinfections showed 48% (95% CI: 10-57) lower risk of severe disease than first infections.ConclusionsNatural immunity acquired with previous variants showed low protection against Omicron BA.1. Combined vaccination and natural immunity seems to be more protective against reinfection than either alone. Vaccination of people with prior infection reduced the risk of severe disease.

Published
2023
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32. Estimation of the incubation period and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Delta variants from contact tracing data.

Author

Manica M, Litvinova M, De Bellis A, Guzzetta G, Mancuso P, Vicentini M, Venturelli F, Bisaccia E, Bento AI, Poletti P, Marziano V, Zardini A, d'Andrea V, Trentini F, Bella A, Riccardo F, Pezzotti P, Ajelli M, Giorgi Rossi P, and Merler S

Subjects
Humans, Contact Tracing, Bayes Theorem, Infectious Disease Incubation Period, SARS-CoV-2 genetics, COVID-19 epidemiology
Abstract

Quantitative information on epidemiological quantities such as the incubation period and generation time of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants is scarce. We analysed a dataset collected during contact tracing activities in the province of Reggio Emilia, Italy, throughout 2021. We determined the distributions of the incubation period for the Alpha and Delta variants using information on negative polymerase chain reaction tests and the date of last exposure from 282 symptomatic cases. We estimated the distributions of the intrinsic generation time using a Bayesian inference approach applied to 9724 SARS-CoV-2 cases clustered in 3545 households where at least one secondary case was recorded. We estimated a mean incubation period of 4.9 days (95% credible intervals, CrI, 4.4-5.4) for Alpha and 4.5 days (95% CrI 4.0-5.0) for Delta. The intrinsic generation time was estimated to have a mean of 7.12 days (95% CrI 6.27-8.44) for Alpha and of 6.52 days (95% CrI 5.54-8.43) for Delta. The household serial interval was 2.43 days (95% CrI 2.29-2.58) for Alpha and 2.74 days (95% CrI 2.62-2.88) for Delta, and the estimated proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission was 48-51% for both variants. These results indicate limited differences in the incubation period and intrinsic generation time of SARS-CoV-2 variants Alpha and Delta compared to ancestral lineages.

Published
2022
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33. Intrinsic generation time of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant: An observational study of household transmission.

Author

Manica M, De Bellis A, Guzzetta G, Mancuso P, Vicentini M, Venturelli F, Zerbini A, Bisaccia E, Litvinova M, Menegale F, Molina Grané C, Poletti P, Marziano V, Zardini A, d'Andrea V, Trentini F, Bella A, Riccardo F, Pezzotti P, Ajelli M, Giorgi Rossi P, and Merler S

Abstract

Background: Starting from the final months of 2021, the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant expanded globally, swiftly replacing Delta, the variant that was dominant at the time. Many uncertainties remain about the epidemiology of Omicron; here, we aim to estimate its generation time., Methods: We used a Bayesian approach to analyze 23,122 SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals clustered in 8903 households as determined from contact tracing operations in Reggio Emilia, Italy, throughout January 2022. We estimated the distribution of the intrinsic generation time (the time between the infection dates of an infector and its secondary cases in a fully susceptible population), realized household generation time, realized serial interval (time between symptom onset of an infector and its secondary cases), and contribution of pre-symptomatic transmission., Findings: We estimated a mean intrinsic generation time of 6.84 days (95% credible intervals, CrI, 5.72-8.60), and a mean realized household generation time of 3.59 days (95%CrI: 3.55-3.60). The household serial interval was 2.38 days (95%CrI 2.30-2.47) with about 51% (95%CrI 45-56%) of infections caused by symptomatic individuals being generated before symptom onset., Interpretation: These results indicate that the intrinsic generation time of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant might not have shortened as compared to previous estimates on ancestral lineages, Alpha and Delta, in the same geographic setting. Like for previous lineages, pre-symptomatic transmission appears to play a key role for Omicron transmission. Estimates in this study may be useful to design quarantine, isolation and contact tracing protocols and to support surveillance (e.g., for the accurate computation of reproduction numbers)., Funding: The study was partially funded by EU grant 874850 MOOD., Competing Interests: MA has received research funding from Seqirus. The funding is not related to COVID-19. All other authors declare no conflicts of interest., (© 2022 The Author(s).)

Published
2022
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