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Background: WHIM (Warts, Hypogammaglobulinemia, Infections, and Myelokathexis) syndrome is an ultra-rare, combined primary immunodeficiency and chronic neutropenic disorder characterized by a range of clinical presentations, including peripheral neutropenia, lymphopenia, and recurrent infections. WHIM syndrome is most often caused by gain-of-function mutations in the gene encoding C-X-C chemokine receptor 4 (CXCR4). As such, inhibition of CXCR4 with XOLREMDI ® (mavorixafor), an orally bioavailable CXCR4 antagonist, demonstrated clinically meaningful increases in absolute neutrophil and lymphocyte counts and concomitant reduction in infections in patients with WHIM syndrome, resulting in its recent U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval. The impact of CXCR4 antagonism on other aspects of the pathobiology in WHIM syndrome, such as lymphopoiesis and leukocyte trafficking between primary and secondary lymphoid organs, is less understood., Methods: In the current study, the effects of CXCR4 antagonism on leukocyte trafficking and distribution in primary and secondary lymphoid organs were investigated in a mouse model of WHIM syndrome carrying the heterozygous Cxcr4 1013 mutation. Cxcr4 +/1013 and Cxcr4 wild-type mice received the orally bioavailable CXCR4 antagonist X4-185. Blood, spleen and bone marrow samples were collected for numeration, flow cytometry, and functional studies., Results: Cxcr4 +/1013 mice exhibited profound peripheral blood leukopenia as seen in patients with WHIM syndrome. CXCR4 antagonism corrected circulating leukopenia and mobilized functional neutrophils without disrupting granulopoiesis in the bone marrow of Cxcr4 +/1013 mice. Furthermore, Cxcr4 +/1013 displayed aberrant splenic T and B-cell counts and frequency. Treatment with X4-185 normalized splenic T-cell abnormalities, correcting the reduced CD8 + T-cell numbers, restoring the CD4/CD8 T-cell ratio, and ameliorating peripheral blood T-cell lymphopenia. In addition, CXCR4 antagonism was able to correct the abnormal frequencies and numbers of splenic marginal zone and follicular B cells in Cxcr4 +/1013 mice, and ultimately normalize B-cell lymphopenia in the peripheral circulation., Conclusions: Our study provides comprehensive evidence that oral dosing with a CXCR4 antagonist can effectively correct WHIM-associated neutrophil and lymphocyte abnormalities in a mouse model of WHIM syndrome. These findings extend our understanding of how targeting the dysregulated CXCR4 signaling pathway can ameliorate the pathogenesis of WHIM syndrome., Competing Interests: CN, KZ, HM, BM, RJ, and AT are employees and shareholders of X4 Pharmaceuticals. LR, MKh, MKa, BS, VG, VR, ZA, ME and KB had a research agreement with X4 Pharmaceuticals. The handling editor TT declared a past collaboration with the authors KZ and AT., (Copyright © 2024 Roland, Nguyen, Zmajkovicova, Khamyath, Kalogeraki, Schell, Gourhand, Rondeau, Abou Nader, Monticelli, Maierhofer, Johnson, Taveras, Espéli and Balabanian.)

Biomarker-guided therapy is a growing area of research in medicine. To optimize the use of biomarkers, several study designs including the biomarker-strategy design (BSD) have been proposed. Unlike traditional designs, the emphasis here is on comparing treatment strategies and not on treatment molecules as such. Patients are assigned to either a biomarker-based strategy (BBS) arm, in which biomarker-positive patients receive an experimental treatment that targets the identified biomarker, or a non-biomarker-based strategy (NBBS) arm, in which patients receive treatment regardless of their biomarker status. We proposed a simulation method based on a partially clustered frailty model (PCFM) as well as an extension of Freidlin formula to estimate the sample size required for BSD with multiple targeted treatments. The sample size was mainly influenced by the heterogeneity of treatment effect, the proportion of biomarker-negative patients, and the randomization ratio. The PCFM is well suited for the data structure and offers an alternative to traditional methodologies., (© 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Both cell-intrinsic and niche-derived, cell-extrinsic cues drive the specification of hematopoietic multipotent progenitors (MPPs) in the bone marrow, which comprise multipotent MPP1 cells and lineage-restricted MPP2, MPP3, and MPP4 subsets. Patients with WHIM syndrome, a rare congenital immunodeficiency caused by mutations that prevent desensitization of the chemokine receptor CXCR4, have an excess of myeloid cells in the bone marrow. Here, we investigated the effects of increased CXCR4 signaling on the localization and fate of MPPs. Knock-in mice bearing a WHIM syndrome-associated CXCR4 mutation ( CXCR4 1013 ) phenocopied the myeloid skewing of bone marrow in patients. Whereas MPP4 cells in wild-type mice differentiated into lymphoid cells, MPP4s in CXCR4 1013 knock-in mice differentiated into myeloid cells. This myeloid rewiring of MPP4s in CXCR4 1013 knock-in mice was associated with enhanced signaling mediated by the kinase mTOR and increased oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS). MPP4s also localized further from arterioles in the bone marrow of knock-in mice compared with wild-type mice, suggesting that the loss of extrinsic cues from the perivascular niche may also contribute to their myeloid skewing. Chronic treatment with the CXCR4 antagonist AMD3100 or the mTOR inhibitor rapamycin restored the lymphoid potential of MPP4s in knock-in mice. Thus, CXCR4 desensitization drives the lymphoid potential of MPP4 cells by dampening the mTOR-dependent metabolic changes that promote myeloid differentiation.

2-Aminoethanethiol dioxygenase (ADO) is a thiol dioxygenase that sulfinylates cysteamine and amino-terminal cysteines in polypeptides. The pathophysiological roles of ADO remain largely unknown. Here, we demonstrate that ADO expression represents a vulnerability in cancer cells, as ADO depletion led to loss of proliferative capacity and survival in cancer cells and reduced xenograft growth. In contrast, generation of the ADO knockout mouse revealed high tolerance for ADO depletion in adult tissues. To understand the mechanism underlying ADO's essentiality in cancer cells, we characterized the cell proteome and metabolome following depletion of ADO. This revealed that ADO depletion leads to toxic levels of polyamines which can be driven by ADO's substrate cysteamine. Polyamine accumulation in turn stimulated expression of proline dehydrogenase (PRODH) which resulted in mitochondrial hyperactivity and ROS production, culminating in cell toxicity. This work identifies ADO as a unique vulnerability in cancer cells, due to its essential role in maintenance of redox homeostasis through restraining polyamine levels and proline catabolism.

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a devastating disease initiated and maintained by a rare subset of cells called leukemia stem cells (LSCs). LSCs are responsible for driving disease relapse, making the development of new therapeutic strategies to target LSCs urgently needed. The use of mass spectrometry-based metabolomics profiling has enabled the discovery of unique and targetable metabolic properties in LSCs. However, we do not have a comprehensive understanding of metabolite differences between LSCs and their normal counterparts, hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPCs). In this study, we used an unbiased mass spectrometry-based metabolomics analysis to define differences in metabolites between primary human LSCs and HSPCs, which revealed that LSCs have a distinct metabolome. Spermidine was the most enriched metabolite in LSCs compared with HSPCs. Pharmacological reduction of spermidine concentrations decreased LSC function but spared normal HSPCs. Polyamine depletion also decreased leukemic burden in patient-derived xenografts. Mechanistically, spermidine depletion induced LSC myeloid differentiation by decreasing eIF5A-dependent protein synthesis, resulting in reduced expression of a select subset of proteins. KAT7, a histone acetyltransferase, was one of the top candidates identified to be down-regulated by spermidine depletion. Overexpression of KAT7 partially rescued polyamine depletion-induced decreased colony-forming ability, demonstrating that loss of KAT7 is an essential part of the mechanism by which spermidine depletion targets AML clonogenic potential. Together, we identified and mechanistically dissected a metabolic vulnerability of LSCs that has the potential to be rapidly translated into clinical trials to improve outcomes for patients with AML.

Background: Recent evidence suggests an overestimation of the benefits associated with arteriovenous (AV) fistula versus graft in certain populations. We assessed hazards of all-cause and cause-specific hospitalization and death associated with AV access type in patients who started hemodialysis with a catheter in France, overall and by subgroups of age, sex and comorbidities., Methods: We performed a target trial emulation including patients who initiated hemodialysis with a catheter from 2010 through 2018 and were followed by the REIN Registry. We identified first-created fistula or graft through the French national health-administrative database. We used joint frailty models to deal with recurrent hospitalizations and potential informative censoring by death, and inverse probability weighting to account for confounding., Results: From the 18 800 patients included (mean age 68 ± 15 years, 35% women), 5% underwent AV graft creation first. The weighted hazard ratio (wHR) of all-cause hospitalization associated with graft was 1.08 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02 to 1.15], that of vascular access-related hospitalization was 1.43 (95% CI 1.32 to 1.55), and those of cardiovascular- and infection-related hospitalizations were 1.14 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.26) and 1.11 (95% CI 0.97 to 1.28), respectively. Results were consistent for most subgroups, except that the highest hazard of all-cause, cardiovascular- and infection-related hospitalizations with graft was blunted in patients with comorbidities (i.e. diabetes, wHR 1.01, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.10; 1.10, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.26; and 0.94, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.12, respectively)., Conclusions: In patients starting hemodialysis with a catheter, AV graft creation is associated with increased hazard of vascular access-related hospitalizations compared with fistula. This may not be the case for death or other causes of hospitalization., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the ERA.)

Joint models linking longitudinal biomarkers or recurrent event processes with a terminal event, for example, mortality, have been studied extensively. Motivated by studies of recurrent delirium events in patients receiving care in an intensive care unit (ICU), we devise a joint model for a recurrent event process and multiple terminal events. Being discharged alive from the ICU or experiencing mortality may be associated with a patient's hazard of delirium, violating the assumption of independent censoring. Moreover, the direction of the association between the hazards of delirium and mortality may be opposite of the direction of association between the hazards of delirium and ICU discharge. Hence treating either terminal event as independent censoring may bias inferences. We propose a competing joint model that uses a latent frailty to link a patient's recurrent and competing terminal event processes. We fit our model to data from a completed placebo-controlled clinical trial, which studied whether Haloperidol could prevent death and delirium among ICU patients. The clinical trial served as a foundation for a simulation study, in which we evaluate the properties, for example, bias and confidence interval coverage, of the competing joint model. As part of the simulation study, we demonstrate the shortcomings of using a joint model with a recurrent delirium process and a single terminal event to study delirium in the ICU. Lastly, we discuss limitations and possible extensions for the competing joint model. The competing joint model has been added to frailtypack, an R package for fitting an assortment of joint models., (© 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: While opportunistic infections are a frequent and challenging problem in kidney transplant recipients, their long-term epidemiology remains hardly known., Methods: Opportunistic infections were recorded in 1144 recipients transplanted in our center between 2004 and 2015. Incidence rates and baseline risk factors were determined using joint frailty models., Results: After a median follow-up of 5.6 years, 544 opportunistic infections occurred in 373/1144 (33%) patients, dominated by viral infections (396/544, 72%), especially cytomegalovirus (CMV) syndromes and diseases (213/544, 39%). One-third of the infected patients experienced at least two opportunistic infections. The incidence of opportunistic infections was 10 times higher during the first year post-transplantation than after that (34.7 infections for 100 patient-years vs 3.64). Opportunistic infections associated with the age of the donor (P = .032), the age of the recipient (P = .049), the CMV serostatus (P < 10-6), a higher class II HLA mismatch (P = .032) and an induction treatment including rabbit anti-thymocyte globulins (P = .026). Repeated opportunistic infections associated with each other (P < 10-6) and with renal death (P < 10-6)., Conclusion: Opportunistic infections occur with a two-period incidence pattern and many susceptible patients suffer from repeated episodes. This knowledge may help tailor new prevention and follow-up strategies to reduce the burden of opportunistic infections and their impact on transplantation outcome., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the ERA.)

In epidemiology and clinical research, recurrent events refer to individuals who are likely to experience transient clinical events repeatedly over an observation period. Examples include hospitalizations in patients with heart failure, fractures in osteoporosis studies and the occurrence of new lesions in oncology. We provided an in-depth analysis of the sample size required for the analysis of recurrent time-to-event data using multifrailty or multilevel survival models. We covered the topic from the simple shared frailty model to models with hierarchical or joint frailties. We relied on a Wald-type test statistic to estimate the sample size assuming either a single or multiple endpoints. Simulations revealed that the sample size increased as heterogeneity increased. We also observed that it was more attractive to include more patients and reduce the duration of follow-up than to include fewer patients and increase the duration of follow-up to obtain the number of events required. Each model investigated can address the question of the number of subjects for recurrent events. However, depending on the research question, one model will be more suitable than another. We illustrated our methodology with the AFFIRM-AHF trial investigating the effect of intravenous ferric carboxymaltose in patients hospitalised for acute heart failure.

The sum of the longest diameter (SLD) of the target lesions is a longitudinal biomarker used to assess tumor response in cancer clinical trials, which can inform about early treatment effect. This biomarker is semicontinuous, often characterized by an excess of zeros and right skewness. Conditional two-part joint models were introduced to account for the excess of zeros in the longitudinal biomarker distribution and link it to a time-to-event outcome. A limitation of the conditional two-part model is that it only provides an effect of covariates, such as treatment, on the conditional mean of positive biomarker values, and not an overall effect on the biomarker, which is often of clinical relevance. As an alternative, we propose in this article, a marginalized two-part joint model (M-TPJM) for the repeated measurements of the SLD and a terminal event, where the covariates affect the overall mean of the biomarker. Our simulation studies assessed the good performance of the marginalized model in terms of estimation and coverage rates. Our application of the M-TPJM to a randomized clinical trial of advanced head and neck cancer shows that the combination of panitumumab in addition with chemotherapy increases the odds of observing a disappearance of all target lesions compared to chemotherapy alone, leading to a possible indirect effect of the combined treatment on time to death., (© 2023 The Authors. Pharmaceutical Statistics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

With the ongoing development of treatments and the resulting increase in survival in oncology, clinical trials based on endpoints such as overall survival may require long follow-up periods to observe sufficient events and ensure adequate statistical power. This increase in follow-up time may compromise the feasibility of the study. The use of surrogate endpoints instead of final endpoints may be attractive for these studies. However, before a surrogate can be used in a clinical trial, it must be statistically validated. In this article, we propose an approach to validate surrogates when both the surrogate and final endpoints are censored event times. This approach is developed for meta-analytic data and uses a mediation analysis to decompose the total effect of the treatment on the final endpoint as a direct effect and an indirect effect through the surrogate. The meta-analytic nature of the data is accounted for in a joint model with random effects at the trial level. The proportion of the indirect effect over the total effect of the treatment on the final endpoint can be computed from the parameters of the model and used as a measure of surrogacy. We applied this method to investigate time-to-relapse as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival in resectable gastric cancer., (© The Author 2022. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Outcomes for patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) remain poor due to the inability of current therapeutic regimens to fully eradicate disease-initiating leukemia stem cells (LSC). Previous studies have demonstrated that oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS) is an essential process that is targetable in LSC. Sirtuin 3 (SIRT3), a mitochondrial deacetylase with a multi-faceted role in metabolic regulation, has been shown to regulate OXPHOS in cancer models; however, it has not yet been studied in the context of LSC. Thus, we sought to identify if SIRT3 is important for LSC function. Using RNAi and a SIRT3 inhibitor (YC8-02), we demonstrate that SIRT3 is a critical target for the survival of primary human LSC but is not essential for normal human hematopoietic stem and progenitor cell function. In order to elucidate the molecular mechanisms by which SIRT3 is essential in LSC we combined transcriptomic, proteomic, and lipidomic approaches, showing that SIRT3 is important for LSC function through the regulation of fatty acid oxidation (FAO) which is required to support OXPHOS and ATP production in human LSC. Further, we discovered two approaches to further sensitize LSC to SIRT3 inhibition. First, we found that LSC tolerate the toxic effects of fatty acid accumulation induced by SIRT3 inhibition by upregulating cholesterol esterification. Disruption of cholesterol homeostasis sensitizes LSC to YC8-02 and potentiates LSC death. Second, SIRT3 inhibition sensitizes LSC to the BCL-2 inhibitor venetoclax. Together, these findings establish SIRT3 as a regulator of lipid metabolism and potential therapeutic target in primitive AML cells.

Introduction: Several population-based studies have reported disparities in overall survival (OS) among older patients with cancer. However, geriatric syndromes, known to be associated with OS in the geriatric population, were rarely studied. Thus, our aim was to identify the determinants of OS among French older adults with cancer, including geriatric syndromes before cancer diagnosis., Materials and Methods: Using cancer registries, we identified older subjects (≥65 years) with cancer in three French prospective cohort studies on aging from the Gironde department. Survival time was calculated from the date of diagnosis to the date of all-cause death or to the date of last follow-up, whichever came first. Demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, smoking status, self-rated health, cancer-related factors (stage at diagnosis, treatment), as well as geriatric syndromes (polypharmacy, activity limitation, depressive symptomatology, and cognitive impairment or dementia) were studied. Analyses were performed using Cox proportional hazard models for the whole population, then by age group (65-84 and 85+)., Results: Among the 607 subjects included in the study, the median age at cancer diagnosis was 84 years. Smoking habits, activity limitations, cognitive impairment or dementia, advanced cancer stage and absence of treatment were significantly associated with lower OS in the analysis including the whole population. Women presented higher OS. Factors associated with OS differed by age group. Polypharmacy was inversely associated with OS in older adults aged 65-84 and 85 + ., Discussion: Our findings support that geriatric assessment is needed to identify patients at higher risk of death and that an evaluation of activity limitation in older adults is essential. Improving early detection could enable interventions to address factors (activity limitations, cognitive impairment) associated with OS, potentially reducing disparities and lead to earlier palliative care., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest P Soubeyran, payment for conference: GSK; advisory board member: EISAI/ABBVIE. V Rondeau, as an Independent statistician for an Independent Data Monitoring board: BMS/ CRO: Horiana / CRO: IQVIA / INNOTHERA/Pfizer. A Galvin, B Amadeo, M Frasca, F Delva, K Pérès, G Coureau, C Helmer and S Mathoulin-Pélissier have no conflict of interest and disclosures., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

This article focuses on shared frailty models for correlated failure times, as well as joint frailty models for the simultaneous analysis of recurrent events (eg, appearance of new cancerous lesions or hospital readmissions) and a major terminal event (typically, death). As extensions of the Cox model, these joint models usually assume a frailty proportional hazards model for each of the recurrent and terminal event processes. In order to extend these models beyond the proportional hazards assumption, our proposal is to replace these proportional hazards models with generalized survival models, for which the survival function is modeled as a linear predictor through a link function. Depending on the link function considered, these can be reduced to proportional hazards, proportional odds, additive hazards, or probit models. We first consider a fully parametric framework for the time and covariate effects. For proportional and additive hazards models, our approach also allows the use of smooth functions for baseline hazard functions and time-varying coefficients. The dependence between recurrent and terminal event processes is modeled by conditioning on a shared frailty acting differently on the two processes. Parameter estimates are provided using the maximum (penalized) likelihood method, implemented in the R package frailtypack (function GenfrailtyPenal). We perform simulation studies to assess the method, which is also illustrated on real datasets., (© 2023 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

WHIM Syndrome is a rare immunodeficiency caused by gain-of-function CXCR4 mutations. Here we report a decrease in bone mineral density in 25% of WHIM patients and bone defects leading to osteoporosis in a WHIM mouse model. Imbalanced bone tissue is observed in mutant mice combining reduced osteoprogenitor cells and increased osteoclast numbers. Mechanistically, impaired CXCR4 desensitization disrupts cell cycle progression and osteogenic commitment of skeletal stromal/stem cells, while increasing their pro-osteoclastogenic capacities. Impaired osteogenic differentiation is evidenced in primary bone marrow stromal cells from WHIM patients. In mice, chronic treatment with the CXCR4 antagonist AMD3100 normalizes in vitro osteogenic fate of mutant skeletal stromal/stem cells and reverses in vivo the loss of skeletal cells, demonstrating that proper CXCR4 desensitization is required for the osteogenic specification of skeletal stromal/stem cells. Our study provides mechanistic insights into how CXCR4 signaling regulates the osteogenic fate of skeletal cells and the balance between bone formation and resorption., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Two-part joint models for a longitudinal semicontinuous biomarker and a terminal event have been recently introduced based on frequentist estimation. The biomarker distribution is decomposed into a probability of positive value and the expected value among positive values. Shared random effects can represent the association structure between the biomarker and the terminal event. The computational burden increases compared to standard joint models with a single regression model for the biomarker. In this context, the frequentist estimation implemented in the R package frailtypack can be challenging for complex models (i.e., a large number of parameters and dimension of the random effects). As an alternative, we propose a Bayesian estimation of two-part joint models based on the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) algorithm to alleviate the computational burden and fit more complex models. Our simulation studies confirm that INLA provides accurate approximation of posterior estimates and to reduced computation time and variability of estimates compared to frailtypack in the situations considered. We contrast the Bayesian and frequentist approaches in the analysis of two randomized cancer clinical trials (GERCOR and PRIME studies), where INLA has a reduced variability for the association between the biomarker and the risk of event. Moreover, the Bayesian approach was able to characterize subgroups of patients associated with different responses to treatment in the PRIME study. Our study suggests that the Bayesian approach using the INLA algorithm enables to fit complex joint models that might be of interest in a wide range of clinical applications., (© 2023 The Authors. Biometrical Journal published by Wiley-VCH GmbH.)

In translational oncology research, the patient-derived xenograft (PDX) model and its use in mouse clinical trials (MCT) are increasingly described. This involves transplanting a human tumor into a mouse and studying its evolution during follow-up or until death. A MCT contains several PDXs in which several mice are randomized to different treatment arms. Our aim was to compare longitudinal modeling of tumor growth using mixed and joint models. Mixed and joint models were compared in a real MCT ( N = 225 mice) to estimate the effect of a chemotherapy and a simulation study. Mixed models assume that death is predictable by observed tumor volumes (data missing at random, MAR) while the joint models assume that death depends on nonobserved tumor volumes (data missing not at random, MNAR). In the real dataset, of 103 deaths, 97 mice were sacrificed when reaching a predetermined tumor size (MAR data). Joint and mixed model estimates of tumor growth slopes differed significantly [0.24 (0.13;0.36)log(mm 3 )/week for mixed model vs. -0.02 [-0.16;0.11] for joint model]. By disrupting the MAR process of mice deaths (inducing MNAR process), the estimate of the joint model was 0.24 [0.04;0.45], close to mixed model estimation for the original dataset. The simulation results confirmed the bias in the slope estimate from the joint model. Using a MCT example, we show that joint model can provide biased estimates under MAR mechanisms of dropout. We thus recommend to carefully choose the statistical model according to nature of mice deaths., Significance: This work brings new arguments to a controversy on the correct choice of statistical modeling methods for the analysis of MCTs. We conclude that mixed models are more robust than joint models., Competing Interests: H. Savel reports other from Ipsen during the conduct of the study; other from Ipsen outside the submitted work. F. Meyer-Losic reports other from Ipsen during the conduct of the study. L. Richert reports grants from Ipsen during the conduct of the study. No disclosures were reported by the other authors., (© 2023 The Authors; Published by the American Association for Cancer Research.)

A key issue when designing clinical trials is the estimation of the number of subjects required. Assuming for multicenter trials or biomarker-stratified designs that the effect size between treatment arms is the same among the whole study population might be inappropriate. Limited work is available for properly determining the sample size for such trials. However, we need to account for both, the heterogeneity of the baseline hazards over clusters or strata but also the heterogeneity of the treatment effects, otherwise sample size estimates might be biased. Most existing methods account for either heterogeneous baseline hazards or treatment effects but they dot not allow to simultaneously account for both sources of variations. This article proposes an approach to calculate sample size formula for clustered or stratified survival data relying on frailty models. Both theoretical derivations and simulation results show the proposed approach can guarantee the desired power in worst case scenarios and is often much more efficient than existing approaches. Application to a real clinical trial designs is also illustrated., (© 2021 The International Biometric Society.)

Objective: To evaluate the effect of air pollution, from oocyte retrieval to embryo transfer, on the results of in vitro fertilisation (IVF) in terms of clinical pregnancy rates, at two fertility centres, from 2013 to 2019., Design: Exploratory retrospective cohort study., Setting: This retrospective cohort study was performed in the Reproductive Biology Department of Bordeaux University Hospital localised in Bordeaux, France and the Jean Villar Fertility Center localised in Bruges, France., Participants: This study included 10 763 IVF attempts occurring between January 2013 and December 2019, 2194 of which resulted in a clinical pregnancy., Primary and Secondary Outcome Measures: The outcome of the IVF attempt was recorded as the presence or absence of a clinical pregnancy; exposure to air pollution was assessed by calculating the cumulative exposure of suspended particulate matter, fine particulate matter, black carbon, nitrogen dioxide and ozone (O 3) , over the period from oocyte retrieval to embryo transfer, together with secondary exposure due to the presence of the biomass boiler room, which was installed in 2016, close to the Bordeaux University Hospital laboratory. The association between air pollution and IVF outcome was evaluated by a random-effects logistic regression analysis., Results: We found negative associations between cumulative O 3 exposure and clinical pregnancy rate (OR=0.92, 95% CI = (0.86 to 0.98)), and between biomass boiler room exposure and clinical pregnancy rate (OR=0.75, 95% CI = (0.61 to 0.91)), after adjustment for potential confounders., Conclusion: Air pollution could have a negative effect on assisted reproductive technology results and therefore precautions should be taken to minimise the impact of outdoor air on embryo culture., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Associations between socioeconomic status (SES) and breast cancer survival are most pronounced in young patients. We further investigated the relation between SES, subsequent recurrent events and mortality in breast cancer patients < 40 years. Using detailed data on all recurrences that occur between date of diagnosis of the primary tumor and last observation, we provide a unique insight in the prognosis of young breast cancer patients according to SES., Methods: All women < 40 years diagnosed with primary operated stage I-III breast cancer in 2005 were selected from the nationwide population-based Netherlands Cancer Registry. Data on all recurrences within 10 years from primary tumor diagnosis were collected directly from patient files. Recurrence patterns and absolute risks of recurrence, contralateral breast cancer (CBC) and mortality - accounting for competing risks - were analysed according to SES. Relationships between SES, recurrence patterns and excess mortality were estimated using a multivariable joint model, wherein the association between recurrent events and excess mortality (expected mortality derived from the general population) was included., Results: We included 525 patients. The 10-year recurrence risk was lowest in high SES (18.1%), highest in low SES (29.8%). Death and CBC as first events were rare. In high, medium and low SES 13.2%, 15.3% and 19.1% died following a recurrence. Low SES patients had shorter median time intervals between diagnosis, first recurrence and 10-year mortality (2.6 and 2.7 years, respectively) compared to high SES (3.5 and 3.3 years, respectively). In multivariable joint modeling, high SES was significantly related to lower recurrence rates over 10-year follow-up, compared to low SES. A strong association between the recurrent event process and excess mortality was found., Conclusions: High SES is associated with lower recurrence risks, less subsequent events and better prognosis after recurrence over 10 years than low SES. Breast cancer risk factors, adjuvant treatment adherence and treatment of recurrence may possibly play a role in this association., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Time to next treatment or death (TNT-D) may be a patient-relevant endpoint in patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors. This study investigated TNT-D as a surrogate endpoint (SE) for overall survival (OS) in previously untreated advanced melanoma patients., Methods: Patient-level data from the 60-month results of the CheckMate 067 randomised, controlled trial were used. Analyses were carried out for nivolumab monotherapy or nivolumab with ipilimumab versus ipilimumab monotherapy. The SE 1-step validation method based on a joint frailty-copula model was used where the country of enrolment was applied to define clusters. Kendall's τ and the coefficient of determination (R 2 trial ) were estimated for respective measurements of association at the individual and cluster levels. The surrogate threshold effect, the maximum threshold hazard ratio for TNT-D that would translate into OS benefit, was estimated. A leave-one-out cross-validation analysis was carried out to evaluate model robustness., Results: Fifteen clusters of data were generated from 945 patients. For both nivolumab-containing arms, the association between TNT-D and OS was deemed acceptable at the individual level (Kendall's τ > 0.60) and strong at the cluster level, with R 2 trial fairly close to 1, with narrow confidence intervals. The estimated surrogate threshold effects were 0.61 for nivolumab versus ipilimumab and 0.49 for nivolimub + ipilimumab versus ipilimumab. Cross-validation results showed minimum variation of the correlation measures and satisfactory predictive accuracy for the model., Conclusion: Results suggest that TNT-D may be a valuable SE in previously untreated advanced melanoma patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors. Surrogacy analyses considering multiple randomised controlled trials are warranted for confirming these findings., Competing Interests: Disclosure SB, A-FG, MK and AM are employed by Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS). CLS and VR declare no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. AI declares advisory board consulting with Epizyme, Lilly, Merck Sharp & Dohme, Novartis, Pharmamar and Roche; and research grants from AstraZeneca, Bayer, BMS, Chugai, Merck Sharp & Dohme, Novartis, Pharmamar, Pfizer and Roche. CB declares personal fees from BMS outside of the submitted work., (Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Joint models for a longitudinal biomarker and a terminal event have gained interests for evaluating cancer clinical trials because the tumor evolution reflects directly the state of the disease. A biomarker characterizing the tumor size evolution over time can be highly informative for assessing treatment options and could be taken into account in addition to the survival time. The biomarker often has a semicontinuous distribution, i.e., it is zero inflated and right skewed. An appropriate model is needed for the longitudinal biomarker as well as an association structure with the survival outcome. In this article, we propose a joint model for a longitudinal semicontinuous biomarker and a survival time. The semicontinuous nature of the longitudinal biomarker is specified by a two-part model, which splits its distribution into a binary outcome (first part) represented by the positive versus zero values and a continuous outcome (second part) with the positive values only. Survival times are modeled with a proportional hazards model for which we propose three association structures with the biomarker. Our simulation studies show some bias can arise in the parameter estimates when the semicontinuous nature of the biomarker is ignored, assuming the true model is a two-part model. An application to advanced metastatic colorectal cancer data from the GERCOR study is performed where our two-part model is compared to one-part joint models. Our results show that treatment arm B (FOLFOX6/FOLFIRI) is associated to higher SLD values over time and its positive association with the terminal event leads to an increased risk of death compared to treatment arm A (FOLFIRI/FOLFOX6)., (© The Author 2020. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

MEK1 and MEK2, the only known activators of ERK, are attractive therapeutic candidates for both cancer and autoimmune diseases. However, how MEK signaling finely regulates immune cell activation is only partially understood. To address this question, we specifically delete Mek1 in hematopoietic cells in the Mek2 null background. Characterization of an allelic series of Mek mutants reveals the presence of distinct degrees of spontaneous B cell activation, which are inversely proportional to the levels of MEK proteins and ERK activation. While Mek1 and Mek2 null mutants have a normal lifespan, 1Mek1 and 1Mek2 mutants retaining only one functional Mek1 or Mek2 allele in hematopoietic cell lineages die from glomerulonephritis and lymphoproliferative disorders, respectively. This establishes that the fine-tuning of the ERK/MAPK pathway is critical to regulate B and T cell activation and function and that each MEK isoform plays distinct roles during lymphocyte activation and disease development., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Correlations among survival endpoints are important for exploring surrogate endpoints of the true endpoint. With a valid surrogate endpoint tightly correlated with the true endpoint, the efficacy of a new drug/treatment can be measurable on it. However, the existing methods for measuring correlation between two endpoints impose an invalid assumption: correlation structure is constant across different treatment arms. In this article, we reconsider the definition of Kendall's concordance measure (tau) in the context of individual patient data meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials. According to our new definition of Kendall's tau, its value depends on the treatment arms. We then suggest extending the existing copula (and frailty) models so that their Kendall's tau can vary across treatment arms. Our newly proposed model, a joint frailty-conditional copula model , is the implementation of the new definition of Kendall's tau in meta-analyses. In order to facilitate our approach, we develop an original R function condCox.reg(.) and make it available in the R package joint.Cox (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=joint.Cox). We apply the proposed method to a gastric cancer dataset (3288 patients in 14 randomized trials from the GASTRIC group). This data analysis concludes that Kendall's tau has different values between the surgical treatment arm and the adjuvant chemotherapy arm ( p -value<0.001), whereas disease-free survival remains a valid surrogate at individual level for overall survival in these trials.