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This study investigates the shoreline dynamics of a Caribbean reef-lined beach by utilizing a long-term satellite dataset spanning 75 years and a short-term, high-frequency dataset captured by a fixed camera over 3 years. An array of statistical methods, including ARIMA models, are employed to examine the impact of storms and potential cyclical influences on the shoreline dynamics. The findings indicate that significant storm events trigger a substantial retreat of the vegetation limit, followed by a slow recovery. Given the current frequency of such major events, complete recovery may take several decades, resulting in a minor influence of cyclones on the long-term erosion trend, which remains moderate. The short-term shoreline evolution is primarily driven by the annual cyclicity of the still water level, which generates an annual oscillation—an insight not previously reported. In the context of climate change, alterations to sea-level rise and cyclone frequency could disrupt the observed dynamic equilibrium at different timescales. Such changes could result in an alteration of existing cyclicities, disturbance of recovery periods, increased long-term shoreline retreat rates, and potentially affect overall coastal resilience over time.

Increasing evidence suggests that coastal ecosystems provide significant protection against coastal flooding. However, these ecosystems are highly impacted by local human activities and climate change, which has resulted in reducing their extent and can limit their role in flooding mitigation. Most studies dealing with the coastal protection offered by ecosystems focus on a single ecosystem and, also seldom assess potential differences in protection with changes in status of the ecosystem. Therefore, based on a Xbeach Non-hydrostatic numerical modeling approach, we quantified the coastal inundation response to different combinations of ecosystems’ health statuses. A combination of a fringing reef environment associated with a vegetated beach was chosen as this pattern is typical of many low-lying areas of the Caribbean and tropical areas in general. Our results, (1) highlight the potential of capitalizing on the combined impacts of multiple ecosystems on coastal protection, (2) alert to the consequences of further destruction of these ecosystems, (3) demonstrate the predominant role of vegetation with an increased sea-level rise and (4) provide strategies to limit the deleterious effects of present-day and future reef degradation.