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Abstract Many insects utilise optical information in linearly polarised light for navigation, with the degree of linear polarisation (DoLP) determining whether the ‘visibility’ of such optical information is available to them. However, changes in degree of linear polarisation in response to increased atmospheric levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are poorly understood. We present analyses based on both ground-based monitoring and particulate matter modelling, establishing a quantitative relationship between PM2.5 mass concentration and the DoLP. We apply this relationship to a global PM2.5 projection for 2050 and estimate the increase in number and spatial extent of low visibility days for honeybees. We find an increase by up to 20% in the geographical extent of low visibility days in 2050, with an augmented frequency of low visibility days across an area exceeding 0.75 million km2 in India and 2 million km2 in China. More frequent and widespread low visibility conditions can reduce the ability of insects to navigate, especially in hotspot regions.

Abstract Satellites provide global coverage for monitoring atmospheric greenhouse gases, crucial for understanding global climate dynamics. However, their temporal and spatial resolutions fall short in detecting urban‐scale variations. To enhance satellite reliability over urban areas, this study presents the first comprehensive analysis of long‐term observations of column‐averaged dry air mole fractions of CO2, CH4, and CO (XCO2, XCH4, XCO) using two ground‐based fourier transform infrared spectrometers, EM27/SUNs, in a megacity. With over 2 years of observations, our study shows that EM27/SUN measurements can effectively capture the daily and seasonal variability of XCO2, XCH4, and XCO over Seoul, a megacity with complex topography and various emission sources. In addition, we use the advantage of having multiple greenhouse gas satellites targeting Seoul to compare with the EM27/SUNs. Our study highlights the importance of EM27/SUN observations in Seoul to identify the need for improvements in satellites to monitor greenhouse gas behaviors and emissions in urban areas.

Abstract Marine heatwave (MHW), a prolonged period of anomalously warm seawater, has a catastrophic repercussion on marine ecosystems. With global warming, MHWs have become increasingly frequent, intense, and prolonged. To avoid irreversible damages from such extreme events, net‐zero carbon emissions by the 2050s, called carbon neutrality, were proposed. Here, we evaluate the impact of carbon neutrality on MHWs in the late 21st century using multi‐model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1–1.9 and SSP3‐7.0 scenarios. It is found that if the current regional rivalry over carbon emissions continues (i.e., SSP3‐7.0), the MHWs in the late 21st century will become stronger and longer than historical ones, especially in the western boundary current and equatorial current regions. Approximately 68% of the global ocean will be exposed to permanent MHWs, regionally 93% in the Indian Ocean, 76% in the Pacific Ocean, 68% in the Atlantic Ocean, 65% in the Coastal Ocean, and 48% in the Southern Ocean. Such MHWs can be significantly reduced by achieving carbon neutrality (i.e., SSP1‐1.9). In particular, the spatial proportion of the ocean exposed to permanent MHWs can be reduced to as low as 0.02%–0.07%, depending on the regions. This result underscores the critical importance of ongoing efforts to achieve net‐zero carbon emissions to reduce the potential ecological risks induced by extreme MHWs.

Abstract Climate extremes, such as hot temperature and heavy precipitation events, have devastating effects on human societies. As the planet gets warmer, they have become more intense and more frequent. To avoid irreversible damages from climate extremes, many countries have committed to achieving net‐zero anthropogenic carbon emissions, or carbon neutrality, by the 2050s. Here, we quantify the impact of carbon neutrality on population exposure to climate extremes using multi‐model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)1‐1.9 and SSP3‐7.0 scenarios. It is found that the increasing population exposure to hot‐temperature and heavy‐precipitation extremes under SSP3‐7.0 scenario can be substantially reduced by 87%–98% in the late 21st century by achieving the carbon neutrality based on SSP1‐1.9 scenario. The benefits of carbon neutrality are particularly pronounced in Africa and Asia. The potential benefits of carbon neutrality are also significant in North America, Europe, and Oceania, where a reduction in climate extremes is more than twice as important as population decline in reducing population exposure to climate extremes. These results provide important scientific support for ongoing efforts to achieve net‐zero carbon emissions by the 2050s to reduce potential climate risk and its inequity across continents.

Near-real time observations of aerosol properties could have a potential to improve the accuracy of XCO2 retrieval algorithm in operational satellite missions. In this study, we developed a retrieval algorithm of XCO2 (Yonsei Retrieval Algorithm; YCAR) based on the Optimal Estimation (OE) method that used aerosol information at the location of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) measurement from co-located measurement of the Afternoon constellation (A-train) such as the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) onboard the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Observation (CALIPSO) and the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) onboard the Aqua. Specifically, we used optical depth, vertical profile, and optical properties of aerosol from MODIS and CALIOP data. We validated retrieval results to the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) ground-based measurements and found general consistency. The impact of observed aerosol information and its constraint was examined by retrieval tests using different settings. The effect of using additional aerosol information was analyzed in connection with the bias correction process of the operational retrieval algorithm. YCAR using a priori aerosol loading parameters from co-located satellite measurements and less constraint of aerosol optical properties made comparable results with operational data with the bias correction process in three of the four cases subject to this study. Our work provides evidence supporting the bias correction process of operational algorithms and quantitatively presents the effectiveness of synergic use of multiple satellites (e.g. A-train) and better treatment of aerosol information.

Abstract Projections of future carbon sinks and stocks are important because they show how the world's ecosystems will respond to elevated CO2 and changes in climate. Moreover, they are crucial to inform policy decisions around emissions reductions to stay within the global warming levels identified by the Paris Agreement. However, Earth System Models from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) show substantial spread in future projections—especially of the terrestrial carbon cycle, leading to a large uncertainty in our knowledge of any remaining carbon budget (RCB). Here we evaluate the global terrestrial carbon cycle projections on a region‐by‐region basis and compare the global models with regional assessments made by the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes, Phase 2 activity. Results show that for each region, the CMIP6 multi‐model mean is generally consistent with the regional assessment, but substantial cross‐model spread exists. Nonetheless, all models perform well in some regions and no region is without some well performing models. This gives confidence that the CMIP6 models can be used to look at future changes in carbon stocks on a regional basis with appropriate model assessment and benchmarking. We find that most regions of the world remain cumulative net sources of CO2 between now and 2100 when considering the balance of fossil‐fuels and natural sinks, even under aggressive mitigation scenarios. This paper identifies strengths and weaknesses for each model in terms of its performance over a particular region including how process representation might impact those results and sets the agenda for applying stricter constraints at regional scales to reduce the uncertainty in global projections.

The seasonal greening of Northern Hemisphere ecosystems due to extended growing periods and enhanced photosynthetic activity is, via experiments, shown to modify near-surface warming by perturbing land-atmosphere energy exchanges.

Abstract Background Cities are a major source of atmospheric CO2; however, understanding the surface CO2 exchange processes that determine the net CO2 flux emitted from each city is challenging owing to the high heterogeneity of urban land use. Therefore, this study investigates the spatiotemporal variations of urban CO2 flux over the Seoul Capital Area, South Korea from 2017 to 2018, using CO2 flux measurements at nine sites with different urban land-use types (baseline, residential, old town residential, commercial, and vegetation areas). Results Annual CO2 flux significantly varied from 1.09 kg C m− 2 year− 1 at the baseline site to 16.28 kg C m− 2 year− 1 at the old town residential site in the Seoul Capital Area. Monthly CO2 flux variations were closely correlated with the vegetation activity (r = − 0.61) at all sites; however, its correlation with building energy usage differed for each land-use type (r = 0.72 at residential sites and r = 0.34 at commercial sites). Diurnal CO2 flux variations were mostly correlated with traffic volume at all sites (r = 0.8); however, its correlation with the floating population was the opposite at residential (r = − 0.44) and commercial (r = 0.80) sites. Additionally, the hourly CO2 flux was highly related to temperature. At the vegetation site, as the temperature exceeded 24 ℃, the sensitivity of CO2 absorption to temperature increased 7.44-fold than that at the previous temperature. Conversely, the CO2 flux of non-vegetation sites increased when the temperature was less than or exceeded the 18 ℃ baseline, being three-times more sensitive to cold temperatures than hot ones. On average, non-vegetation urban sites emitted 0.45 g C m− 2 h− 1 of CO2 throughout the year, regardless of the temperature. Conclusions Our results demonstrated that most urban areas acted as CO2 emission sources in all time zones; however, the CO2 flux characteristics varied extensively based on urban land-use types, even within cities. Therefore, multiple observations from various land-use types are essential for identifying the comprehensive CO2 cycle of each city to develop effective urban CO2 reduction policies.

This study analyzed the sensitivities of carbon cycle to surface air temperature using the CO _2 flux data collected from June to September for six years (2014–2019) over a moist tundra site in Council, Alaska. The tundra ecosystem was a strong sink of carbon in June and July, a weak sink in August with rapidly decreasing photosynthesis, and a carbon source in September. The ecosystem respiration (Re) and gross primary production (GPP) were obtained from the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of eddy-covariance system. Both the Re and GPP increased with temperature, enhancing carbon emission and uptake during observation period. Notably, Re showed higher sensitivity to temperature than GPP did. This result means that as global warming continues, the increase in carbon release is greater than the increase in carbon uptake. In other words, the tundra ecosystem is expected to become a weaker carbon sink in June and July and a stronger source of carbon in September. Possible mechanism of different temperature sensitivities of Re and GPP as well as temporal variations of temperature sensitivities are suggested. Present results highlight the importance of understanding the temperature sensitivities of Re and GPP in various tundra ecosystems to accurately understand changes in the carbon cycle in the Arctic region.

Anomalous warming in the Arctic region of the Barents-Kara Sea is associated with cold damage and reduced springtime vegetation activity in East Asian forests, according to a correlation analysis of Arctic warming and leaf area anomalies in East Asia.

Abstract Population aging, an increasing share of the elderly to the total population, can exacerbate heat vulnerability to intensified heat hazards. However, the aging impacts on increases in exposure of the elderly to unprecedented hot summers (UHSs) could be variable in the warming climate. Here, we present considerable contribution of age structure changes to increases in the elders' exposure to intensified UHSs in countries with a high percentage of youth population, namely, China, India, and Brazil, by analyzing combined scenarios of climate change with population structure. In the aforementioned regions, increases in exposure to stronger UHSs relevant to rapid aging will exceed at least half of the warming impact, which primarily causes frequent occurrence of stronger UHSs. Conversely, the United States and Europe, which have already entered an aged society, show a negligible aging impact. These results suggest that the future evolution of a society's age structure is an important constraint for projecting population exposure to strengthened summer heat.

Recent studies have reported a 9% decrease in global carbon emissions during the COVID-19 lockdown period; however, its impact on the variation of atmospheric CO _2 level remains under question. Using atmospheric CO _2 observed at Anmyeondo station (AMY) in South Korea, downstream of China, this study examines whether the decrease in China’s emissions due to COVID-19 can be detected from the enhancement of CO _2 mole fraction (ΔCO _2 ) relative to the background value. The Weather Research and Forecasting–Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport model was applied to determine when the observed mole fractions at AMY were affected by air parcels from China. Atmospheric observations at AMY showed up to a −20% (−1.92 ppm) decrease in ΔCO _2 between February and March 2020 compared to the same period in 2018 and 2019, particularly with a −34% (−3.61 ppm) decrease in March. ΔCO, which was analyzed to explore the short-term effect of emission reductions, had a decrease of −43% (−80.66 ppb) during the lockdown in China. Particularly in East China, where emissions are more concentrated than in Northeast China, ΔCO _2 and ΔCO decreased by −44% and −65%, respectively. The ΔCO/ΔCO _2 ratio (24.8 ppb ppm ^−1 ), which is the indicator of emission characteristics, did not show a significant difference before and after the COVID-19 lockdown period ( α = 0.05), suggesting that this decrease in ΔCO _2 and ΔCO was associated with emission reductions rather than changes in emission sources or combustion efficiency in China. Reduced carbon emissions due to limited human activity resulted in a decrease in the short-term regional enhancement to the observed atmospheric CO _2 .

The article presents a study which revisited the trends of amplitude (AMP), especially those in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), by reanalyzing atmospheric records from 49 surface stations across all the latitudes during the period 1980-2018. Topics discussed include changes in surface carbon dioxide fluxes, attributions of changes in the seasonal amplitude of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and processes driving the changes in the seasonality of air-sea carbon dioxide influx in the Southern Ocean.