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3. Challenges for climate change adaptation in Latin America and the Caribbean region

Author

Cavazos, Tereza, primary, Bettolli, Maria Laura, additional, Campbell, Donovan, additional, Sánchez Rodríguez, Roberto A., additional, Mycoo, Michelle, additional, Arias, Paola A., additional, Rivera, Juan, additional, Reboita, Michelle Simões, additional, Gulizia, Carla, additional, Hidalgo, Hugo G., additional, Alfaro, Eric J., additional, Stephenson, Tannecia S., additional, Sörensson, Anna A., additional, Cerezo-Mota, Ruth, additional, Castellanos, Edwin, additional, Ley, Debora, additional, and Mahon, Roché, additional

Published
2024
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4. Regional climate change: consensus, discrepancies, and ways forward.

Author

Shaw, Tiffany A., Arias, Paola A., Collins, Mat, Coumou, Dim, Diedhiou, Arona, Garfinkel, Chaim I., Jain, Shipra, Koll Roxy, Mathew, Kretschmer, Marlene, Leung, L. Ruby, Narsey, Sugata, Martius, Olivia, Seager, Richard, Shepherd, Theodore G., Sörensson, Anna A., Stephenson, Tannecia, Taylor, Michael, and Lin Wang

Subjects
CLIMATE change, GLOBAL warming, ATMOSPHERIC models, OCEAN temperature, STAKEHOLDERS
Abstract

Climate change has emerged across many regions. Some observed regional climate changes, such as amplified Arctic warming and land-sea warming contrasts have been predicted by climate models. However, many other observed regional changes, such as changes in tropical sea surface temperature and monsoon rainfall are not well simulated by climate model ensembles even when taking into account natural internal variability and structural uncertainties in the response of models to anthropogenic radiative forcing. This suggests climate model predictions may not fully reflect what our future will look like. The discrepancies between models and observations are not well understood due to several real and apparent puzzles and limitations such as the "signal-tonoise paradox" and real-world record-shattering extremes falling outside of the possible range predicted by models. Addressing these discrepancies, puzzles and limitations is essential, because understanding and reliably predicting regional climate change is necessary in order to communicate effectively about the underlying drivers of change, provide reliable information to stakeholders, enable societies to adapt, and increase resilience and reduce vulnerability. The challenges of achieving this are greater in the Global South, especially because of the lack of observational data over long time periods and a lack of scientific focus on Global South climate change. To address discrepancies between observations and models, it is important to prioritize resources for understanding regional climate predictions and analyzing where and why models and observations disagree via testing hypotheses of drivers of biases using observations and models. Gaps in understanding can be discovered and filled by exploiting new tools, such as artificial intelligence/machine learning, high-resolution models, new modeling experiments in the model hierarchy, better quantification of forcing, and new observations. Conscious efforts are needed toward creating opportunities that allow regional experts, particularly those from the Global South, to take the lead in regional climate research. This includes co-learning in technical aspects of analyzing simulations and in the physics and dynamics of regional climate change. Finally, improved methods of regional climate communication are needed, which account for the underlying uncertainties, in order to provide reliable and actionable information to stakeholders and the media. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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5. Introduction

Author

Boyer, Tim, primary, Bartow-Gillies, Ellen, additional, Abida, A., additional, Ades, Melanie, additional, Adler, Robert, additional, Adusumilli, Susheel, additional, Agyakwah, W., additional, Ahmasuk, Brandon, additional, Aldeco, Laura S., additional, Alexe, Mihai, additional, Alfaro, Eric J., additional, Allan, Richard P., additional, Allgood, Adam, additional, Alves, Lincoln. M., additional, Amador, Jorge A., additional, Anderson, John, additional, Andrade, B., additional, Anneville, Orlane, additional, Aono, Yasuyuki, additional, Arguez, Anthony, additional, Arosio, Carlo, additional, Atkinson, C., additional, Augustine, John A., additional, Avalos, Grinia, additional, Azorin-Molina, Cesar, additional, Backensto, Stacia A., additional, Bader, Stephan, additional, Baez, Julian, additional, Baiman, Rebecca, additional, Ballinger, Thomas J., additional, Banwell, Alison F., additional, Bardin, M. Yu, additional, Barichivich, Jonathan, additional, Barnes, John E., additional, Barreira, Sandra, additional, Beadling, Rebecca L., additional, Beck, Hylke E., additional, Becker, Emily J., additional, Bekele, E., additional, Bellido, Guillem Martín, additional, Bellouin, Nicolas, additional, Benedetti, Angela, additional, Benestad, Rasmus, additional, Berne, Christine, additional, Berner, Logan. T., additional, Bernhard, Germar H., additional, Bhatt, Uma S., additional, Bhuiyan, A. E., additional, Bigalke, Siiri, additional, Biló, Tiago, additional, Bissolli, Peter, additional, Bjerke Jarle, W., additional, Blagrave, Kevin, additional, Blake, Eric S., additional, Blenkinsop, Stephen, additional, Blunden, Jessica, additional, Bochníček, Oliver, additional, Bock, Olivier, additional, Bodenstein, Barbara, additional, Bodin, Xavier, additional, Bosilovich, Michael, additional, Boucher, Olivier, additional, Bozkurt, Deniz, additional, Brettschneider, Brian, additional, Bringas, Francis G., additional, Bringas, Francis, additional, Buechler, Dennis, additional, Buehler, Stefan A., additional, Bukunt, Brandon, additional, Calderón, Blanca, additional, Camargo, Suzana J., additional, Campbell, Jayaka, additional, Campos, Diego, additional, Carrea, Laura, additional, Carter, Brendan R., additional, Cetinić, Ivona, additional, Chambers, Don P., additional, Chan, Duo, additional, Chandler, Elise, additional, Chang, Kai-Lan, additional, Chen, Hua, additional, Chen, Lin, additional, Cheng, Lijing, additional, Cheng, Vincent Y. S., additional, Chomiak, Leah, additional, Christiansen, Hanne H., additional, Christy, John R., additional, Chung, Eui-Seok, additional, Ciasto, Laura M., additional, Clarke, Leonardo, additional, Clem, Kyle R., additional, Clingan, Scott, additional, Coelho, Caio A.S., additional, Cohen, Judah L., additional, Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie, additional, Colwell, Steve, additional, Cooper, Owen R., additional, Cornes, Richard C., additional, Correa, Kris, additional, Costa, Felipe, additional, Covey, Curt, additional, Coy, Lawrence, additional, Créatux, Jean-François, additional, Crhova, Lenka, additional, Crimmins, Theresa, additional, Cronin, Meghan F., additional, Cropper, Thomas, additional, Crotwell, Molly, additional, Culpepper, Joshua, additional, Cunha, Ana P., additional, Cusicanqui, Diego, additional, Datta, Rajashree T., additional, Davis, Sean M., additional, De Bock, Veerle, additional, de Jeu, Richard A. M., additional, De Laat, Jos, additional, Decharme, Bertrand, additional, Degenstein, Doug, additional, Delaloye, Reynald, additional, Demircan, Mesut, additional, Derksen, Chris, additional, Deus, Ricardo, additional, Dhurmea, K. R., additional, Diamond, Howard J., additional, Dirkse, S., additional, Divine, Dmitry, additional, Dokulil, Martin T., additional, Donat, Markus G., additional, Dong, Shenfu, additional, Dorigo, Wouter A., additional, Drost Jensen, Caroline, additional, Druckenmiller, Matthew L., additional, Drumond, Paula, additional, du Plessis, Marcel, additional, Dugan, Hilary A., additional, Dulamsuren, Dashkhuu, additional, Dunmire, Devon, additional, Dunn, Robert J. H., additional, Durre, Imke, additional, Dusek, Robert, additional, Dutton, Geoff, additional, Duveiller, Gregory, additional, Ekici, Mithat, additional, Elias Chereque, Alesksandra, additional, ElKharrim, M., additional, Epstein, Howard E., additional, Espinoza, Jhan-Carlo, additional, Estilow, Thomas W., additional, Estrella, Nicole, additional, Fauchereau, Nicolas, additional, Fausto, Robert S., additional, Feely, Richard A., additional, Fenimore, Chris, additional, Fereday, David, additional, Fettweis, Xavier, additional, Fioletov, vitali E., additional, Flemming, Johannes, additional, Fogarty, Chris, additional, Fogt, Ryan L., additional, Forbes, Bruce C., additional, Foster, Michael J., additional, Franz, Bryan A., additional, Freeman, Natalie M., additional, Fricker, Helen A., additional, Frith, Stacey M., additional, Froidevaux, Lucien, additional, Frost, Gerald V. (JJ), additional, Fuhrman, Steven, additional, Füllekrug, Martin, additional, Ganter, Catherine, additional, Gao, Meng, additional, Gardner, Alex S., additional, Garforth, Judith, additional, Garg, Jay, additional, Gerland, Sebastian, additional, Gibbes, Badin, additional, Gille, Sarah T., additional, Gilson, John, additional, Gleason, Karin, additional, Gobron, Nadine, additional, Goetz, Scott J., additional, Goldenberg, Stanley B., additional, Goni, Gustavo, additional, Goodman, Steven, additional, Goto, Atsushi, additional, Grooß, Jens-Uwe, additional, Gruber, Alexander, additional, Gu, Guojun, additional, Guard, Charles “Chip” P., additional, Hagos, S., additional, Hahn, Sebastian, additional, Haimberger, Leopold, additional, Hall, Bradley D., additional, Hamlington, Benjamin D., additional, Hanna, Edward, additional, Hanssen-Bauer, Inger, additional, Harnos, Daniel S., additional, Harris, Ian, additional, He, Qiong, additional, Heim, Richard R., additional, Hellström, Sverker, additional, Hemming, Deborah L., additional, Hendricks, Stefan, additional, Hicks, J., additional, Hidalgo, Hugo G., additional, Hirschi, Martin, additional, Ho, Shu-peng (Ben), additional, Hobbs, W., additional, Holmes, Robert M., additional, Holzworth, Robert, additional, Hrbáček, Filip, additional, Hu, Guojie, additional, Hu, Zeng-Zhen, additional, Huang, Boyin, additional, Huang, Hongjie, additional, Hurst, Dale F., additional, Ialongo, Iolanda, additional, Inness, Antje, additional, Isaksen, Ketil, additional, Ishii, Masayoshi, additional, Jadra, Gerardo, additional, Jevrejeva, Svetlana, additional, John, Viju O., additional, Johns, W., additional, Johnsen, Bjørn, additional, Johnson, Bryan, additional, Johnson, Gregory C., additional, Jones, Philip D., additional, Jones, Timothy, additional, Josey, Simon A., additional, Jumaux, G., additional, Junod, Robert, additional, Kääb, Andreas, additional, Kabidi, K., additional, Kaiser, Johannes W., additional, Kaler, Robb S.A., additional, Kaleschke, Lars, additional, Kaufmann, Viktor, additional, Kazemi, Amin Fazl, additional, Keller, Linda M., additional, Kellerer-Pirklbauer, Andreas, additional, Kendon, Mike, additional, Kennedy, John, additional, Kent, Elizabeth C., additional, Kerr, Kenneth, additional, Khan, Valentina, additional, Khiem, Mai Van, additional, Kidd, Richard, additional, Kim, Mi Ju, additional, Kim, Seong-Joong, additional, Kipling, Zak, additional, Klotzbach, Philip J., additional, Knaff, John A., additional, Koppa, Akash, additional, Korshunova, Natalia N., additional, Kraemer, Benjamin M., additional, Kramarova, Natalya A., additional, Kruger, A. C., additional, Kruger, Andries, additional, Kumar, Arun, additional, L’Heureux, Michelle, additional, La Fuente, Sofia, additional, Laas, Alo, additional, Labe, Zachary M., additional, Lader, Rick, additional, Lakatos, Mónika, additional, Lakkala, Kaisa, additional, Lam, Hoang Phuc, additional, Lan, Xin, additional, Landschützer, Peter, additional, Landsea, Chris W., additional, Lang, Timothy, additional, Lankhorst, Matthias, additional, Lantz, Kathleen O., additional, Lara, Mark J., additional, Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo, additional, Lavers, David A., additional, Lazzara, Matthew A., additional, Leblanc, Thierry, additional, Lee, Tsz-Cheung, additional, Leibensperger, Eric M., additional, Lennard, Chris, additional, Leuliette, Eric, additional, Leung, Kinson H. Y., additional, Lieser, Jan L., additional, Likso, Tanja, additional, Lin, I-I., additional, Lindsey, Jackie, additional, Liu, Yakun, additional, Locarnini, Ricardo, additional, Loeb, Norman G., additional, Loomis, Bryant D., additional, Lorrey, Andrew M., additional, Loyola, Diego, additional, Lu, Rui, additional, Lumpkin, Rick, additional, Luo, Jing-Jia, additional, Luojus, Kari, additional, Lyman, John M., additional, Maberly, Stephen C., additional, Macander, Matthew J., additional, MacFerrin, Michael, additional, MacGilchrist, Graeme A., additional, MacLennan, Michelle L., additional, Madelon, Remi, additional, Magee, Andrew D., additional, Magnin, Florence, additional, Mamen, Jostein, additional, Mankoff, Ken D., additional, Manney, Gloria L., additional, Marcinonienė, Izolda, additional, Marengo, Jose A., additional, Marjan, Mohammadi, additional, Martínez, Ana E., additional, Massom, Robert A., additional, Matsuzaki, Shin-Ichiro, additional, May, Linda, additional, Mayer, Michael, additional, Mazloff, Matthew R., additional, McAfee, Stephanie A., additional, McBride, C., additional, McCabe, Matthew F., additional, McClelland, James W., additional, McPhaden, Michael J., additional, Mcvicar, Tim R., additional, Mears, Carl A., additional, Meier, Walter N., additional, Mekonnen, A., additional, Menzel, Annette, additional, Merchant, Christopher J., additional, Merrifield, Mark A., additional, Meyer, Michael F., additional, Meyers, Tristan, additional, Mikolajczyk, David E., additional, Miller, John B., additional, Miralles, Diego G., additional, Misevicius, Noelia, additional, Mishonov, Alexey, additional, Mitchum, Gary T., additional, Moat, Ben I., additional, Moesinger, Leander, additional, Moise, Aurel, additional, Molina-Carpio, Jorge, additional, Monet, Ghislaine, additional, Montzka, Stephan A., additional, Moon, Twila A., additional, Moore, G. W. K., additional, Mora, Natali, additional, Morán, Johnny, additional, Morehen, Claire, additional, Morice, Colin, additional, Mostafa, A. E., additional, Mote, Thomas L., additional, Mrekaj, Ivan, additional, Mudryk, Lawrence, additional, Mühle, Jens, additional, Müller, Rolf, additional, Nance, David, additional, Nash, Eric R., additional, Nerem, R. Steven, additional, Newman, Paul A., additional, Nicolas, Julien P., additional, Nieto, Juan J., additional, Noetzli, Jeannette, additional, Noll, Ben, additional, Norton, Taylor, additional, Nyland, Kelsey E., additional, O’Keefe, John, additional, Ochwat, Naomi, additional, Oikawa, Yoshinori, additional, Okunaka, Yuka, additional, Osborn, Timothy J., additional, Overland, James E., additional, Park, Taejin, additional, Parrington, Mark, additional, Parrish, Julia K., additional, Pasch, Richard J., additional, Pascual Ramírez, Reynaldo, additional, Pellet, Cécile, additional, Pelto, Mauri S., additional, Perčec Tadić, Melita, additional, Perovich, Donald K., additional, Petersen, Guðrún Nína, additional, Petersen, Kyle, additional, Petropavlovskikh, Irina, additional, Petty, Alek, additional, Pezza, Alexandre B., additional, Pezzi, Luciano P., additional, Phillips, Coda, additional, Phoenix, Gareth K., additional, Pierson, Don, additional, Pinto, Izidine, additional, Pires, Vanda, additional, Pitts, Michael, additional, Po-Chedley, Stephen, additional, Pogliotti, Paolo, additional, Poinar, Kristin, additional, Polvani, Lorenzo, additional, Preimesberger, Wolfgang, additional, Price, Colin, additional, Pulkkanen, Merja, additional, Purkey, Sarah G., additional, Qiu, Bo, additional, Quisbert, Kenny, additional, Quispe, Willy R., additional, Rajeevan, M., additional, Ramos, Andrea M., additional, Randel, William J., additional, Rantanen, Mika, additional, Raphael, Marilyn N., additional, Reagan, James, additional, Recalde, Cristina, additional, Reid, Phillip, additional, Rémy, Samuel, additional, Reyes Kohler, Alejandra J., additional, Ricciardulli, Lucrezia, additional, Richardson, Andrew D., additional, Ricker, Robert, additional, Robinson, David A., additional, Robjhon, M., additional, Rocha, Willy, additional, Rodell, Matthew, additional, Rodriguez Guisado, Esteban, additional, Rodriguez-Fernandez, Nemesio, additional, Romanovsky, Vladimir E., additional, Ronchail, Josyane, additional, Rosencrans, Matthew, additional, Rosenlof, Karen H., additional, Rösner, Benjamin, additional, Rösner, Henrieke, additional, Rozanov, Alexei, additional, Rozkošný, Jozef, additional, Rubek, Frans, additional, Rusanovskaya, Olga O., additional, Rutishauser, This, additional, Sabeerali, C. T., additional, Salinas, Roberto, additional, Sánchez-Lugo, Ahira, additional, Santee, Michelle L., additional, Santini, Marcelo, additional, Sato, Katsunari, additional, Sawaengphokhai, Parnchai, additional, Sayouri, A., additional, Scambos, Theodore, additional, Schenzinger, Verena, additional, Schimanke, Semjon, additional, Schlegel, Robert W., additional, Schmid, Claudia, additional, Schmid, Martin, additional, Schneider, Udo, additional, Schreck, Carl J., additional, Schultz, Cristina, additional, _, _, additional, Segele, Z. T., additional, Sensoy, Serhat, additional, Serbin, Shawn P., additional, Serreze, Mark C., additional, Setiawan, Amsari Mudzakir, additional, Sezaki, Fumi, additional, Sharma, Sapna, additional, Sharp, Jonathan D., additional, Sheffield, Gay, additional, Shi, Jia-Rui, additional, Shi, Lei, additional, Shiklomanov, Alexander I., additional, Shiklomanov, Nikolay I., additional, Shimaraeva, Svetlana V., additional, Shukla, R., additional, Siegel, David A., additional, Silow, Eugene A., additional, Sima, F., additional, Simmons, Adrian J., additional, Smeed, David A., additional, Smith, Adam, additional, Smith, Matthew M., additional, Smith, Sharon L., additional, Soden, Brian J., additional, Sofieva, Viktoria, additional, Souza, Everaldo, additional, Sparks, Tim H., additional, Spence-Hemmings, Jacqueline, additional, Spencer, Robert G. M., additional, Spillane, Sandra, additional, Sreejith, O. P., additional, Srivastava, A. K., additional, Stackhouse, Paul W., additional, Stammerjohn, Sharon, additional, Stauffer, Ryan, additional, Steinbrecht, Wolfgang, additional, Steiner, Andrea K., additional, Stella, Jose L., additional, Stephenson, Tannecia S., additional, Stradiotti, Pietro, additional, Strahan, Susan E., additional, Streletskiy, Dmitry A., additional, Surendran, Divya E., additional, Suslova, Anya, additional, Svendby, Tove, additional, Sweet, William, additional, Takahashi, Kiyotoshi, additional, Takemura, Kazuto, additional, Tank, Suzanne E., additional, Taylor, Michael A., additional, Tedesco, Marco, additional, Thackeray, Stephen J., additional, Thiaw, W. M., additional, Thibert, Emmanuel, additional, Thoman, Richard L., additional, Thompson, Andrew F., additional, Thompson, Philip R., additional, Tian-Kunze, Xiangshan, additional, Timmermans, Mary-Louise, additional, Timofeyev, Maxim A., additional, Tobin, Skie, additional, Tømmervik, Hans, additional, Tourpali, Kleareti, additional, Trescilo, Lidia, additional, Tretiakov, Mikhail, additional, Trewin, Blair C., additional, Triñanes, Joaquin A., additional, Trotman, Adrian, additional, Truchelut, Ryan E., additional, Trusel, Luke D., additional, Tye, Mari R., additional, van der A, Ronald, additional, van der Schalie, Robin, additional, van der Schrier, Gerard, additional, Van Hemert, Caroline, additional, Van Meerbeeck, Cedric J., additional, van vliet, Arnold J.H., additional, Vazife, Ahad, additional, Verburg, Piet, additional, Vernier, Jean-Paul, additional, Vimont, Isaac J., additional, Virts, Katrina, additional, Vivero, Sebastián, additional, Volkov, Denis L., additional, Vömel, Holger, additional, Vose, Russell S., additional, Walker, Donald (Skip) A., additional, Walsh, John E., additional, Wang, Bin, additional, Wang, Hui, additional, Wang, Muyin, additional, Wang, Ray H. J., additional, Wang, Xinyue, additional, Wanninkhof, Rik, additional, Warnock, Taran, additional, Weber, Mark, additional, Webster, Melinda, additional, Wehrlé, Adrian, additional, Wen, Caihong, additional, Westberry, Toby K., additional, Widlansky, Matthew J., additional, Wiese, David N., additional, Wild, Jeannette D., additional, Wille, Jonathan D., additional, Willems, An, additional, Willett, Kate M., additional, Williams, Earle, additional, Willis, J., additional, Wong, Takmeng, additional, Wood, Kimberly M., additional, Woolway, Richard Iestyn, additional, Xie, Ping-Ping, additional, Yang, Daqing, additional, Yin, Xungang, additional, Yin, Ziqi, additional, Zeng, Zhenzhong, additional, Zhang, Huai-min, additional, Zhang, Li, additional, Zhang, Peiqun, additional, Zhao, Lin, additional, Zhou, Xinjia, additional, Zhu, Zhiwei, additional, Ziemke, Jerry R., additional, Ziese, Markus, additional, Zolkos, Scott, additional, Zotta, Ruxandra M., additional, Zou, Cheng-Zhi, additional, Allen, Jessicca, additional, Camper, Amy V., additional, Haley, Bridgette O., additional, Hammer, Gregory, additional, Love-Brotak, S. Elizabeth, additional, Ohlmann, Laura, additional, Noguchi, Lukas, additional, Riddle, Deborah B., additional, and Veasey, Sara W., additional

Published
2023
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6. Regional Climates

Author

Bissolli, Peter, primary, Ganter, Catherine, additional, Mekonnen, A., additional, Sánchez-Lugo, Ahira, additional, Zhu, Zhiwei, additional, Abida, A., additional, Agyakwah, W., additional, Aldeco, Laura S., additional, Alfaro, Eric J., additional, Alves, Lincoln. M., additional, Amador, Jorge A., additional, Andrade, B., additional, Avalos, Grinia, additional, Bader, Stephan, additional, Baez, Julian, additional, Bardin, M. Yu, additional, Bekele, E., additional, Bellido, Guillem Martín, additional, Berne, Christine, additional, Bhuiyan, A. E., additional, Bochníček, Oliver, additional, Bukunt, Brandon, additional, Calderón, Blanca, additional, Campbell, Jayaka, additional, Chandler, Elise, additional, Chen, Hua, additional, Cheng, Vincent Y. S., additional, Clarke, Leonardo, additional, Correa, Kris, additional, Costa, Felipe, additional, Crhova, Lenka, additional, Cunha, Ana P., additional, De Bock, Veerle, additional, Demircan, Mesut, additional, Deus, Ricardo, additional, Dhurmea, K. R., additional, Dirkse, S., additional, Drumond, Paula, additional, Dulamsuren, Dashkhuu, additional, Ekici, Mithat, additional, ElKharrim, M., additional, Espinoza, Jhan-Carlo, additional, Fenimore, Chris, additional, Fogarty, Chris, additional, Fuhrman, Steven, additional, Gleason, Karin, additional, Guard, Charles “Chip” P., additional, Hagos, S., additional, Heim, Richard R., additional, Hellström, Sverker, additional, Hicks, J., additional, Hidalgo, Hugo G., additional, Huang, Hongjie, additional, Jadra, Gerardo, additional, Jumaux, G., additional, Kabidi, K., additional, Kazemi, Amin Fazl, additional, Kendon, Mike, additional, Kerr, Kenneth, additional, Khan, Valentina, additional, Khiem, Mai Van, additional, Kim, Mi Ju, additional, Korshunova, Natalia N., additional, Kruger, A. C., additional, Lakatos, Mónika, additional, Lam, Hoang Phuc, additional, Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo, additional, Lee, Tsz-Cheung, additional, Leung, Kinson H. Y., additional, Likso, Tanja, additional, Lu, Rui, additional, Mamen, Jostein, additional, Marcinonienė, Izolda, additional, Marengo, Jose A., additional, Marjan, Mohammadi, additional, Martínez, Ana E., additional, McBride, C., additional, Meyers, Tristan, additional, Misevicius, Noelia, additional, Moise, Aurel, additional, Molina-Carpio, Jorge, additional, Mora, Natali, additional, Morán, Johnny, additional, Morehen, Claire, additional, Mostafa, A. E., additional, Nieto, Juan J., additional, Oikawa, Yoshinori, additional, Okunaka, Yuka, additional, Ramírez, Reynaldo Pascual, additional, Tadić, Melita Perčec, additional, Pires, Vanda, additional, Quisbert, Kenny, additional, Quispe, Willy R., additional, Rajeevan, M., additional, Ramos, Andrea M., additional, Recalde, Cristina, additional, Reyes Kohler, Alejandra J., additional, Robjhon, M., additional, Rodriguez Guisado, Esteban, additional, Ronchail, Josyane, additional, Rösner, Benjamin, additional, Rösner, Henrieke, additional, Rubek, Frans, additional, Salinas, Roberto, additional, Sayouri, A., additional, Schimanke, Semjon, additional, Segele, Z. T., additional, Sensoy, Serhat, additional, Setiawan, Amsari Mudzakir, additional, Shukla, R., additional, Sima, F., additional, Smith, Adam, additional, Spence-Hemmings, Jacqueline, additional, Spillane, Sandra, additional, Sreejith, O. P., additional, Srivastava, A. K., additional, Stella, Jose L., additional, Stephenson, Tannecia S., additional, Takahashi, Kiyotoshi, additional, Takemura, Kazuto, additional, Taylor, Michael A., additional, Thiaw, W. M., additional, Tobin, Skie, additional, Trescilo, Lidia, additional, Trotman, Adrian, additional, van der Schrier, Gerard, additional, Van Meerbeeck, Cedric J., additional, Vazife, Ahad, additional, Willems, An, additional, and Zhang, Peiqun, additional

Published
2023
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7. Introduction STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2022

Author

Boyer, Tim, Bartow-Gillies, Ellen, Abida, A, Ades, Melanie, Adler, Robert, Adusumilli, Susheel, Agyakwah, W, Ahmasuk, Brandon, Aldeco, Laura S, Alexe, Mihai, Alfaro, Eric J, Allan, Richard P, Allgood, Adam, Alves, Lincoln M, Amador, Jorge A, Anderson, John, Andrade, B, Anneville, Orlane, Aono, Yasuyuki, Arguez, Anthony, Arosio, Carlo, Atkinson, C, Augustine, John A, Avalos, Grinia, Azorin-Molina, Cesar, Backensto, Stacia A, Bader, Stephan, Baez, Julian, Baiman, Rebecca, Ballinger, Thomas J, Banwell, Alison F, Bardin, M Yu, Barichivich, Jonathan, Barnes, John E, Barreira, Sandra, Beadling, Rebecca L, Beck, Hylke E, Becker, Emily J, Bekele, E, Bellido, Guillem Martín, Bellouin, Nicolas, Benedetti, Angela, Benestad, Rasmus, Berne, Christine, Berner, Logan T, Bernhard, Germar H, Bhatt, Uma S, Bhuiyan, AE, Bigalke, Siiri, Biló, Tiago, Bissolli, Peter, Bjerke Jarle, W, Blagrave, Kevin, Blake, Eric S, Blenkinsop, Stephen, Blunden, Jessica, Bochníček, Oliver, Bock, Olivier, Bodin, Xavier, Bosilovich, Michael, Boucher, Olivier, Bozkurt, Deniz, Brettschneider, Brian, Bringas, Francis G, Bringas, Francis, Buechler, Dennis, Buehler, Stefan A, Bukunt, Brandon, Calderón, Blanca, Camargo, Suzana J, Campbell, Jayaka, Campos, Diego, Carrea, Laura, Carter, Brendan R, Cetinić, Ivona, Chambers, Don P, Chan, Duo, Chandler, Elise, Chang, Kai-Lan, Chen, Hua, Chen, Lin, Cheng, Lijing, Cheng, Vincent YS, Chomiak, Leah, Christiansen, Hanne H, Christy, John R, Chung, Eui-Seok, Ciasto, Laura M, Clarke, Leonardo, Clem, Kyle R, Clingan, Scott, Coelho, Caio AS, Cohen, Judah L, Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie, Colwell, Steve, Cooper, Owen R, Cornes, Richard C, Correa, Kris, Costa, Felipe, Covey, Curt, Coy, Lawrence, Créatux, Jean-François, Crhova, Lenka, Crimmins, Theresa, Cronin, Meghan F, Cropper, Thomas, Crotwell, Molly, Culpepper, Joshua, Cunha, Ana P, Cusicanqui, Diego, Datta, Rajashree T, Davis, Sean M, De Bock, Veerle, de Jeu, Richard AM, De Laat, Jos, Decharme, Bertrand, Degenstein, Doug, Delaloye, Reynald, Demircan, Mesut, Derksen, Chris, Deus, Ricardo, Dhurmea, KR, Diamond, Howard J, Dirkse, S, Divine, Dmitry, Dokulil, Martin T, Donat, Markus G, Dong, Shenfu, Dorigo, Wouter A, Drost Jensen, Caroline, Druckenmiller, Matthew L, Drumond, Paula, du Plessis, Marcel, Dugan, Hilary A, Dulamsuren, Dashkhuu, Dunmire, Devon, Dunn, Robert JH, Durre, Imke, Dutton, Geoff, Duveiller, Gregory, Ekici, Mithat, Elias Chereque, Alesksandra, ElKharrim, M, Epstein, Howard E, Espinoza, Jhan-Carlo, Estilow, Thomas W, Estrella, Nicole, Fauchereau, Nicolas, Fausto, Robert S, Feely, Richard A, Fenimore, Chris, Fereday, David, Fettweis, Xavier, Fioletov, vitali E, Flemming, Johannes, Fogarty, Chris, Fogt, Ryan L, Forbes, Bruce C, Foster, Michael J, Franz, Bryan A, Freeman, Natalie M, Fricker, Helen A, Frith, Stacey M, Froidevaux, Lucien, Frost, Gerald V, Fuhrman, Steven, Füllekrug, Martin, Ganter, Catherine, Gao, Meng, Gardner, Alex S, Garforth, Judith, Garg, Jay, Gerland, Sebastian, Gibbes, Badin, Gille, Sarah T, Gilson, John, Gleason, Karin, Gobron, Nadine, Goetz, Scott J, Goldenberg, Stanley B, Goni, Gustavo, Goodman, Steven, Goto, Atsushi, Grooß, Jens-Uwe, Gruber, Alexander, Gu, Guojun, Guard, Charles Chip P, Hagos, S, Hahn, Sebastian, Haimberger, Leopold, Hall, Bradley D, Hamlington, Benjamin D, Hanna, Edward, Hanssen-Bauer, Inger, Harnos, Daniel S, Harris, Ian, He, Qiong, Heim, Richard R, Hellström, Sverker, Hemming, Deborah L, Hendricks, Stefan, Hicks, J, Hidalgo, Hugo G, Hirschi, Martin, Ho, Shu-peng, Hobbs, W, Holmes, Robert M, Holzworth, Robert, Hrbáček, Filip, Hu, Guojie, Hu, Zeng-Zhen, Huang, Boyin, Huang, Hongjie, Hurst, Dale F, Ialongo, Iolanda, Inness, Antje, Isaksen, Ketil, Ishii, Masayoshi, Jadra, Gerardo, Jevrejeva, Svetlana, John, Viju O, Johns, W, Johnsen, Bjørn, Johnson, Bryan, Johnson, Gregory C, Jones, Philip D, Jones, Timothy, Josey, Simon A, Jumaux, G, Junod, Robert, Kääb, Andreas, Kabidi, K, Kaiser, Johannes W, Kaler, Robb SA, Kaleschke, Lars, Kaufmann, Viktor, Kazemi, Amin Fazl, Keller, Linda M, Kellerer-Pirklbauer, Andreas, Kendon, Mike, Kennedy, John, Kent, Elizabeth C, Kerr, Kenneth, Khan, Valentina, Khiem, Mai Van, Kidd, Richard, Kim, Mi Ju, Kim, Seong-Joong, Kipling, Zak, Klotzbach, Philip J, Knaff, John A, Koppa, Akash, Korshunova, Natalia N, Kraemer, Benjamin M, Kramarova, Natalya A, Kruger, AC, Kruger, Andries, Kumar, Arun, L’Heureux, Michelle, La Fuente, Sofia, Laas, Alo, Labe, Zachary M, Lader, Rick, Lakatos, Mónika, Lakkala, Kaisa, Lam, Hoang Phuc, Lan, Xin, Landschützer, Peter, Landsea, Chris W, Lang, Timothy, Lankhorst, Matthias, Lantz, Kathleen O, Lara, Mark J, Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo, Lavers, David A, Lazzara, Matthew A, Leblanc, Thierry, Lee, Tsz-Cheung, Leibensperger, Eric M, Lennard, Chris, Leuliette, Eric, Leung, Kinson HY, Lieser, Jan L, Likso, Tanja, Lin, I-I, Lindsey, Jackie, Liu, Yakun, Locarnini, Ricardo, Loeb, Norman G, Loomis, Bryant D, Lorrey, Andrew M, Loyola, Diego, Lu, Rui, Lumpkin, Rick, Luo, 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A, Moore, GWK, Mora, Natali, Morán, Johnny, Morehen, Claire, Morice, Colin, Mostafa, AE, Mote, Thomas L, Mrekaj, Ivan, Mudryk, Lawrence, Mühle, Jens, Müller, Rolf, Nance, David, Nash, Eric R, Nerem, R Steven, Newman, Paul A, Nicolas, Julien P, Nieto, Juan J, Noetzli, Jeannette, Noll, Ben, Norton, Taylor, Nyland, Kelsey E, O’Keefe, John, Ochwat, Naomi, Oikawa, Yoshinori, Okunaka, Yuka, Osborn, Timothy J, Overland, James E, Park, Taejin, Parrington, Mark, Parrish, Julia K, Pasch, Richard J, Pascual Ramírez, Reynaldo, Pellet, Cécile, Pelto, Mauri S, Perčec Tadić, Melita, Perovich, Donald K, Petersen, Guðrún Nína, Petersen, Kyle, Petropavlovskikh, Irina, Petty, Alek, Pezza, Alexandre B, Pezzi, Luciano P, Phillips, Coda, Phoenix, Gareth K, Pierson, Don, Pinto, Izidine, Pires, Vanda, Pitts, Michael, Po-Chedley, Stephen, Pogliotti, Paolo, Poinar, Kristin, Polvani, Lorenzo, Preimesberger, Wolfgang, Price, Colin, Pulkkanen, Merja, Purkey, Sarah G, Qiu, Bo, Quisbert, Kenny, Quispe, Willy R, 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Sharp, Jonathan D, Sheffield, Gay, Shi, Jia-Rui, Shi, Lei, Shiklomanov, Alexander I, Shiklomanov, Nikolay I, Shimaraeva, Svetlana V, Shukla, R, Siegel, David A, Silow, Eugene A, Sima, F, Simmons, Adrian J, Smeed, David A, Smith, Adam, Smith, Sharon L, Soden, Brian J, Sofieva, Viktoria, Souza, Everaldo, Sparks, Tim H, Spence-Hemmings, Jacqueline, Spencer, Robert GM, Spillane, Sandra, Sreejith, OP, Srivastava, AK, Stackhouse, Paul W, Stammerjohn, Sharon, Stauffer, Ryan, Steinbrecht, Wolfgang, Steiner, Andrea K, Stella, Jose L, Stephenson, Tannecia S, Stradiotti, Pietro, Strahan, Susan E, Streletskiy, Dmitry A, Surendran, Divya E, Suslova, Anya, Svendby, Tove, Sweet, William, Takahashi, Kiyotoshi, Takemura, Kazuto, Tank, Suzanne E, Taylor, Michael A, Tedesco, Marco, Thackeray, Stephen J, Thiaw, WM, Thibert, Emmanuel, Thoman, Richard L, Thompson, Andrew F, Thompson, Philip R, Tian-Kunze, Xiangshan, Timmermans, Mary-Louise, Timofeyev, Maxim A, Tobin, Skie, Tømmervik, Hans, Tourpali, Kleareti, Trescilo, Lidia, Tretiakov, Mikhail, Trewin, Blair C, Triñanes, Joaquin A, Trotman, Adrian, Truchelut, Ryan E, Trusel, Luke D, Tye, Mari R, van der A, Ronald, van der Schalie, Robin, van der Schrier, Gerard, Van Meerbeeck, Cedric J, van vliet, Arnold JH, Vazife, Ahad, Verburg, Piet, Vernier, Jean-Paul, Vimont, Isaac J, Virts, Katrina, Vivero, Sebastián, Volkov, Denis L, Vömel, Holger, Vose, Russell S, Walker, Donald A, Walsh, John E, Wang, Bin, Wang, Hui, Wang, Muyin, Wang, Ray HJ, Wang, Xinyue, Wanninkhof, Rik, Warnock, Taran, Weber, Mark, Webster, Melinda, Wehrlé, Adrian, Wen, Caihong, Westberry, Toby K, Widlansky, Matthew J, Wiese, David N, Wild, Jeannette D, Wille, Jonathan D, Willems, An, Willett, Kate M, Williams, Earle, Willis, J, Wong, Takmeng, Wood, Kimberly M, Woolway, Richard Iestyn, Xie, Ping-Ping, Yang, Dedi, Yin, Xungang, Yin, Ziqi, Zeng, Zhenzhong, Zhang, Huai-min, Zhang, Li, Zhang, Peiqun, Zhao, Lin, Zhou, Xinjia, Zhu, Zhiwei, Ziemke, Jerry R, Ziese, Markus, Zolkos, Scott, Zotta, Ruxandra M, Zou, Cheng-Zhi, Allen, Jessicca, Camper, Amy V, Haley, Bridgette O, Hammer, Gregory, Love-Brotak, S Elizabeth, Ohlmann, Laura, Noguchi, Lukas, Riddle, Deborah B, and Veasey, Sara W

Abstract

Abstract —J. BLUNDEN, T. BOYER, AND E. BARTOW-GILLIES Earth’s global climate system is vast, complex, and intricately interrelated. Many areas are influenced by global-scale phenomena, including the “triple dip” La Niña conditions that prevailed in the eastern Pacific Ocean nearly continuously from mid-2020 through all of 2022; by regional phenomena such as the positive winter and summer North Atlantic Oscillation that impacted weather in parts the Northern Hemisphere and the negative Indian Ocean dipole that impacted weather in parts of the Southern Hemisphere; and by more localized systems such as high-pressure heat domes that caused extreme heat in different areas of the world. Underlying all these natural short-term variabilities are long-term climate trends due to continuous increases since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the atmospheric concentrations of Earth’s major greenhouse gases. In 2022, the annual global average carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere rose to 417.1±0.1 ppm, which is 50% greater than the pre-industrial level. Global mean tropospheric methane abundance was 165% higher than its pre-industrial level, and nitrous oxide was 24% higher. All three gases set new record-high atmospheric concentration levels in 2022. Sea-surface temperature patterns in the tropical Pacific characteristic of La Niña and attendant atmospheric patterns tend to mitigate atmospheric heat gain at the global scale, but the annual global surface temperature across land and oceans was still among the six highest in records dating as far back as the mid-1800s. It was the warmest La Niña year on record. Many areas observed record or near-record heat. Europe as a whole observed its second-warmest year on record, with sixteen individual countries observing record warmth at the national scale. Records were shattered across the continent during the summer months as heatwaves

Published
2023

8. Climate Change and Pathways Used by Pests as Challenges to Plant Health in Agriculture and Forestry

Author

Gullino, Maria Lodovica, primary, Albajes, Ramon, additional, Al-Jboory, Ibrahim, additional, Angelotti, Francislene, additional, Chakraborty, Subrata, additional, Garrett, Karen A., additional, Hurley, Brett Phillip, additional, Juroszek, Peter, additional, Lopian, Ralf, additional, Makkouk, Khaled, additional, Pan, Xubin, additional, Pugliese, Massimo, additional, and Stephenson, Tannecia, additional

Published
2022
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9. Investigation of Multi-Timescale Sea Level Variability near Jamaica in the Caribbean Using Satellite Altimetry Records.

Author

Maitland, Deron O., Taylor, Michael A., and Stephenson, Tannecia S.

Subjects
STORM surges, SEA level, OCEAN temperature, GLACIAL isostasy, EL Nino, SOUTHERN oscillation
Abstract

There is a dearth of studies characterizing historical sea level variability at the local scale for the islands in the Caribbean. This is due to the lack of reliable long term tide gauge data. There is, however, a significant need for such studies given that small islands are under increasing threat from rising sea levels, storm surges, and coastal flooding due to global warming. The growing length of satellite altimetry records provides a useful alternative to undertake sea level analyses. Altimetry data, spanning 1993–2019, are used herein to explore multi-timescale sea level variability near the south coast of Jamaica, in the northwest Caribbean. Caribbean basin dynamics and largescale forcing mechanisms, which could account for the variability, are also investigated. The results show that the average annual amplitude off the south coast of Jamaica is approximately 10 cm with a seasonal peak during the summer (July–August). The highest annual sea levels occur within the Caribbean storm season, adding to the annual risk. The annual trend over the 27 years is 3.3 ± 0.4 mm/yr when adjusted for Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA), instrumental drift, and accounting for uncertainties. This is comparable to mean global sea level rise, but almost twice the prior estimates for the Caribbean which used altimetry data up to 2010. This suggests an accelerated rate of rise in the Caribbean over the last decade. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and correlation analyses show the long-term trend to be a basin-wide characteristic and linked to warming Caribbean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the period. When the altimetry data are detrended and deseasoned, the leading EOF mode has maximum loadings over the northwest Caribbean, including Jamaica, and exhibits interannual variability which correlates significantly with a tropical Pacific-tropical Atlantic SST gradient index, local wind strength, and the Caribbean Low Level Jet (CLLJ). Correlations with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in summer, seen in this and other studies, likely arise through the contribution of the ENSO to the SST gradient index and the ENSO's modulation of the CLLJ peak strength in July. The results demonstrate the usefulness of altimetry data for characterizing sea level risk on various timescales for small islands. They also suggest the potential for developing predictive models geared towards reducing those risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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11. Regional Climates

Author

Bissolli, Peter, primary, Ganter, Catherine, additional, Mekonnen, Ademe, additional, Sánchez-Lugo, Ahira, additional, Zhu, Zhiwei, additional, Abida, A., additional, Agyakwah, W., additional, Aldeco, Laura S., additional, Alfaro, Eric J., additional, Allen, Teddy, additional, Alves, Lincoln M., additional, Amador, Jorge A., additional, Andrade, B., additional, Asgarzadeh, P., additional, Avalos, Grinia, additional, Baez, Julian, additional, Bardin, M. Yu., additional, Bekele, E., additional, Bertalanic, Renato, additional, Bochníček, Oliver, additional, Bukunt, Brandon, additional, Calderón, Blanca, additional, Campbell, Jayaka D., additional, Chandler, Elise, additional, Charlton, Candice S, additional, Cheng, Vincent Y. S., additional, Clarke, Leonardo A., additional, Correa, Kris, additional, Cortés Salazar, Catalina R., additional, Costa, Felipe, additional, Crhová, Lenka, additional, Cunha, Ana Paula, additional, Demircan, Mesut, additional, Dhurmea, K. R., additional, Domínguez, Diana A., additional, Dulamsuren, Dashkhuu, additional, ElKharrim, M., additional, Espinoza, Jhan-Carlo, additional, Fazl-Kezemi, A., additional, Fedaeff, Nava, additional, Fenimore, Chris, additional, Fuhrman, Steven, additional, Gleason, Karin, additional, Guard, Charles “Chip” P., additional, Hagos, Samson, additional, Hanafusa, Mizuki, additional, Heim, Richard R., additional, Kennedy, John, additional, Hellström, Sverker, additional, Hidalgo, Hugo G., additional, Ijampy, I. A., additional, Im, Gyo Soon, additional, Jumaux, G., additional, Kabidi, K., additional, Kerr, Kenneth, additional, Khalatyan, Yelena, additional, Khan, Valentina, additional, Khiem, Mai Van, additional, Koch, Tobias, additional, Koren, Gerbrand, additional, Korshunova, Natalia N., additional, Kruger, A. C., additional, Lakatos, Mónika, additional, Mamen, Jostein, additional, Lam, Hoang Phuc, additional, Lander, Mark A., additional, Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo, additional, Lee, Tsz-Cheung, additional, Leung, Kinson H. Y., additional, Liu, Xuefeng, additional, Lu, Rui, additional, Marengo, José A., additional, Marjan, Mohammadi, additional, Martínez, Ana E., additional, McBride, Charlotte, additional, Mietus, Mirek, additional, Misevicius, Noelia, additional, Moise, Aurel, additional, Molina-Carpio, Jorge, additional, Mora, Natali, additional, Mostafa, Awatif E., additional, Ndiaye, O., additional, Nieto, Juan J., additional, Olafsdottir, Kristin, additional, Pascual Ramírez, Reynaldo, additional, Phillips, David, additional, Porat, Amos, additional, Rodriguez Guisado, Esteban, additional, Rajeevan, Madhavan, additional, Ramos, Andrea M., additional, Recalde Coronel, Cristina, additional, Reyes Kohler, Alejandra J., additional, Robjhon, M., additional, Ronchail, Josyane, additional, Salinas, Roberto, additional, Sato, Hirotaka, additional, Sato, Hitoshi, additional, Sayouri, Amal, additional, Sensoy, Serhat, additional, Setiawan, Amsari Mudzakir, additional, Sima, F., additional, Smith, Adam, additional, Sorel, Matthieu, additional, Spillane, Sandra, additional, Spence, Jacqueline M., additional, Sreejith, O. P., additional, Srivastava, A. K., additional, Stephenson, Tannecia S., additional, Takahashi, Kiyotoshi, additional, Taylor, Michael A., additional, Thiaw, Wassila M., additional, Tobin, Skie, additional, Trescilo, Lidia, additional, Trotman, Adrian R., additional, Van Meerbeeck, Cedric J., additional, Vazifeh, A., additional, Wakamatsu, Shunya, additional, Zaheer, M. F., additional, Zeng, F., additional, and Zhang, Peiqun, additional

Published
2022
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14. Determining sea-level rise in the Caribbean: A shift from temperature to mass control.

Author

Maitland DO, Richter K, Raj RP, Bonaduce A, Nisancioglu KH, Taylor MA, and Stephenson TS

Abstract

Tropical Small Island Developing States (SIDS), such as those in the Caribbean, are among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, most notably sea-level rise. The current sea-level rise in the Caribbean is 3.40 ± 0.3 mm/year (1993-2019), which is similar to the 3.25 ± 0.4 mm/year global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise (1993-2018). Throughout the year, Caribbean seasonal sea-level variability is found to respond to sea surface temperature variability. Over the past few decades, the trend in Caribbean Sea-level rise is also found to be variable. Satellite altimetry and steric sea-level records of the Caribbean region reveal a shift in the late 2003-early 2004, which separates two distinct periods of sea-level rise. Thermal expansion dominates the sea-level trend from 1993-2003. Following this period, there is an increased trend in sea-level rise, with a dominance of mass changes from 2004-2019, as confirmed by GRACE data. During this period, the sea-level trend is 6.15 ± 0.5 mm/year, which is 67% faster than the most recent estimates of global mean sea-level rise provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (3.69 ± 0.5 mm/year for the period 2006-2018). Despite its reduced importance, increasing temperatures contribute greatly to sea-level rise in the Caribbean region through thermal expansion of ocean water, hence there is a need to limit the current trend of global warming., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Published
2024
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15. An assessment of the impact of 1.5 versus 2 and 2.5°C global temperature increase on flooding in Jamaica: a case study from the Hope watershed.

Author

Mandal A, Stephenson T, Campbell J, Taylor M, Watson S, Clarke L, Smith D, Darsan J, and Wilson M

Subjects
Climate Change, Hydrology, Jamaica, Temperature, Biodiversity, Floods
Abstract

Climate change models project that, within the Caribbean basin, rainfall intensity is likely to increase toward the end of this century, although the region is projected to be drier overall. This may affect the frequency and severity of floods in Jamaica and the Caribbean Small Island Developing States. We investigate how flood hazards may be affected by increases in global mean surface temperature of 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5°C above pre-industrial levels using a case study of a Jamaican watershed. Rainfall projections from the PRECIS regional climate model for the Caribbean are analysed. Six members from the Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions (AENWH, AEXSA, AEXSC, AEXSK, AEXSL and AEXSM) were used to create 100-year flood inundation maps for the Hope river for different global warming levels using hydrological and hydraulic models. Model runs projected peak discharges at 2.0, 2.5 and 1.5°C warming that were higher than discharges in the historical record of events that damaged sections of the watershed. Projections from the hydraulic model show increased flow area, depth and extent for 1.5 followed by 2.0 and 2.5°C rises in temperature. These results imply continued flood risk for the vulnerable areas of the watershed. This article is part of the theme issue 'Developing resilient energy systems'.

Published
2022
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