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Carnivores across much of the world are declining, leading to loss of biodiversity as well as the ecosystem services carnivores provide. In 2020, the Alexander Archipelago (AA) wolf was petitioned for protection under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) for the third time in 30 years. Concerns included habitat alteration from industrial timber harvest and subsequent declines in prey (deer), human-caused mortality, climate change, and genetic inbreeding. However, the underlying biogeography and ecology of these wolves continues to suggest resiliency across the subspecies’ range, even though local populations may go extinct. If local wolf populations go extinct, it will result in loss of their ecosystem services (e.g., interactions of wolves with their prey, which prevents over-browsing and protects carbon sequestration in soils and trees), which will likely have major consequences for the local social-ecological system. Here, we updated a model we constructed for the last ESA listing process (2015) to examine the dynamics of wolf and deer populations on Prince of Wales Island (the primary geographic focus of all three petitions) in response to future environmental and management scenarios developed with stakeholders. Further, we considered how changes in deer abundance impact predation services (prevention of over-browsing by deer). We found that wolf populations generally persisted over 30 years, but dropped below an effective population size of 50 wolves in 10–98% of years simulated. Low wolf abundance resulted in higher deer abundance, which increased hunting opportunity, but also browsing damages (e.g., 19% of areas would be over-browsed if wolf harvest caps are removed, and >30% of areas would be over-browsed if wolves go extinct). Human harvest of wildlife was a key regulator of abundance and ecosystem services within the coastal rainforest social-ecological system; wolf abundance was most affected by wolf harvest regulations; and deer harvest restrictions increased wolf and deer abundances, but also greatly increased browsing impacts (>70% of areas heavily browsed if hunting ceased). Our findings support an integrated approach to management of this social-ecological system, such that social and ecological sciences are both used to monitor important components of the system (e.g., measuring public sentiment and likelihood of poaching, alongside wolf and deer numbers). Integration and adaptive approaches are needed to ensure that the many ecosystem services humans depend on are valued, conserved, and restored, including the cryptic predation services wolves have historically provided to the timber industry via reduced browsing pressure by deer.

Abstract Two vital policy aims—biodiversity conservation and food production—are increasingly in conflict. Efforts to evaluate trade‐offs between agriculture and conservation have shaped scholarly discourse around two broad strategies to agricultural production that seek to either “share” land with biodiversity or “spare” land from agriculture. However, efforts to negotiate these trade‐offs are challenged by rising concern for the welfare of individual animals, both wild and domestic. We use recent efforts to “coexist” with large carnivores to illustrate how sharing and sparing strategies both create tragic, and often unacknowledged trade‐offs between livestock production and carnivore conservation. We conclude the best means of conserving carnivores while feeding the world's growing population requires explicitly confronting and adjudicating ethical trade‐offs associated with sharing and sparing approaches. To accomplish this, we recommend engaging scholars trained in ethics and social justice and use of deliberative processes to synthesize disparate facts and competing values when evaluating trade‐offs.

Abstract As species’ distributions shift in response to changing environmental conditions, novel species interactions are emerging, challenging researchers and managers alike. When new species enter existing ecological communities, their effects on fellow guild members are difficult to predict. Competition between species within the same guild can regulate populations and influence community structure, but niche partitioning is a way for sympatric species to coexist through differential use of space, time, and resources. The fisher (Pekania pennanti) is a carnivore species that has recently colonized Southeast Alaska (SEAK), the northern margin of its range. Although currently considered at low density, the fisher has been expanding its distribution in SEAK in recent years and may impact the native SEAK forest carnivore guild through competitive interactions. We examined the potential for competition between fisher, American marten (Martes americana), and ermine (Mustela erminea) in SEAK during the winter of 2018 by investigating patterns of spatial and temporal overlap between the species at both local and landscape scales. Using data collected from remote‐sensed habitat features, climate characteristics, species detections from 25 systematic camera stations (50 unique cameras), and single‐species occupancy models, we found that fisher occupancy was positively correlated with vegetation height, and detection decreased with increased snow density. Using two‐species occupancy models, we found evidence of temporal, rather than spatial, avoidance patterns among the SEAK mustelid species investigated, although our inference was limited by sample size. Fisher, the largest mustelid evaluated, did not exhibit changes in occupancy or detection in the presence of marten or ermine. Likewise, detection and occupancy parameters of the mid‐sized marten and small‐sized ermine were not affected by the presence of the other mustelids. Instead, analysis of diel activity patterns showed that marten and ermine reduced temporal overlap with fisher, exhibiting less activity during times of peak fisher activity. Overall, these results show that mustelids in SEAK displayed a pattern of hierarchical temporal partitioning during winter, with smaller‐bodied mustelids avoiding larger, more dominant mustelids. However, if the fisher population continues to expand its range and abundance in SEAK, species interactions may shift and increase the potential for competition between the fisher, marten, and ermine mustelid guild.