Search

Weather and climate patterns play an intrinsic role in societal health, yet a comprehensive synthesis of specific hazard-mortality causes does not currently exist. Country-level health burdens are thus highly uncertain, but harnessing collective expert knowledge can reduce this uncertainty, and help assess diverse mortality causes beyond what is explicitly quantified. Here, surveying 30 experts, we provide the first structured expert judgement of how weather and climate directly impact mortality, using the UK as an example. Current weather-related mortality is dominated by short-term exposure to hot and cold temperatures leading to cardiovascular and respiratory failure. We find additional underappreciated health outcomes, especially related to long-exposure hazards, including heat-related renal disease, cold-related musculoskeletal health, and infectious diseases from compound hazards. We show potential future worsening of cause-specific mortality, including mental health from flooding or heat, and changes in infectious diseases. Ultimately, this work could serve to develop an expert-based understanding of the climate-related health burden in other countries., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests YTEL was funded by a University of Bristol fellowship in Climate and Health. EB was funded by Policy Bristol. CR is funded by a UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship (MR/V021672). NSF received support of H2020 MSCA IF (grant ID 846824). AG was supported by the Medical Research Council-UK (MR/V034162/1). All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

The United Kingdom experienced its most extreme heatwave to date during late July 2022, with maximum air temperatures exceeding 40 °C recorded for the first time in history on July 19th. High ambient temperatures have been statistically shown to lead to increased mortality. Higher nighttime temperatures that occur in more urbanised areas, called the urban heat island (UHI), may contribute to the mortality burden of heat. In this study, we applied health impact assessment methods with advanced urban climate modelling to estimate what contribution the UHI had on the mortality impact of the 10-25 July 2022 heatwave in Greater London. Estimated mortality due to heat and due to the UHI were compared with estimated mortality due to air pollution in the same period, based on monitored concentrations. We estimate that of the 1773 deaths in Greater London in this period 370 (95% confidence interval 328-410) could be attributed to heat. We estimate that 38% of these heat-related deaths could be attributed to the UHI. In the same period is estimate deaths attributable to PM2.5 were 20.6 (10.4-30.8) and to ozone were 52.3 (95% confidence interval 18.6-85.2). Despite not contributing to the record-breaking maximum air temperature observed during this period, the UHI may have contributed to the heatwave's mortality burden through raised nighttime temperature. While air pollutant concentrations were elevated during the period, deaths attributable to air pollution were relatively few compared to deaths attributable to heat., (© 2024 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.)

The temperature rise and increases in extreme heat events related to global climate change is a growing public health threat. Populations in temperate climates, including the UK, must urgently adapt to increased hot weather as current infrastructure primarily focusses on resilience to cold. As we adapt, care should be taken to ensure existing health inequalities are reduced. Lessons can be learned from regions that experience warmer climates and applied to adaptation in the UK. We identified known indicators of heat-health risk and explored their distribution across area level income for London. Understanding these indicators and their distributions across populations can support the development of interventions that have the dual aim of improving health and reducing inequalities. An exploratory analysis was conducted for each indicator at neighbourhood level to assess existence of disparities in their distributions across London. A systems-thinking approach was employed to deduce if these amount to systemic inequalities in heat risk, whereby those most exposed to heat are more susceptible and less able to adapt. Using this information, we proposed interventions and made recommendations for their implementation. We find inequalities across indicators relating to exposure, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity. Including inequalities in urban greening and access to greenspace, physical and mental health and access to communication and support. Through a system diagram we demonstrate how these indicators interact and suggest that systemic inequalities in risk exist and will become more evident as exposure increases with rising temperatures, depending on how we adapt. We use this information to identify barriers to the effective implementation of adaptation strategies and make recommendations on the implementation of interventions. This includes effective and wide-reaching communication considering the various channels and accessibility requirements of the population and consideration of all dwelling tenures when implementing policies relating to home improvements in the context of heat., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To assess associations between housing characteristics and risk of hospital admissions related to falls on/from stairs in children, to help inform prevention measures., Study Design: An existing dataset of birth records linked to hospital admissions up to age 5 for a cohort of 3 925 737 children born in England between 2008 and 2014, was linked to postcode-level housing data from Energy Performance Certificates. Association between housing construction age, tenure (eg, owner occupied), and built form and risk of stair fall-related hospital admissions was estimated using Poisson regression. We stratified by age (<1 and 1-4 years), and adjusted for geographic region, Index of Multiple Deprivation, and maternal age., Results: The incidence was higher in both age strata for children in neighborhoods with homes built before 1900 compared with homes built in 2003 or later (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.40; 95% CI, 1.10-1.77 [age <1 year], 1.20; 95% CI, 1.05-1.36 [age 1-4 years]). For those aged 1-4 years, the incidence was higher for those in neighborhoods with housing built between 1900 and 1929, compared with 2003 or later (IRR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.13-1.41), or with predominantly social-rented homes compared with owner occupied (IRR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.13-1.29). Neighborhoods with predominantly houses compared with flats had higher incidence (IRR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.08-1.42 [<1 year] and IRR 1.16; 95% CI, 1.08-1.25 [1-4 years])., Conclusions: Changes in building regulations may explain the lower fall incidence in newer homes compared with older homes. Fall prevention campaigns should consider targeting neighborhoods with older or social-rented housing. Future analyses would benefit from data linkage to individual homes, as opposed to local area level., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare no conflicts of interest. Funding provided by the UCL Health of the Public and Wellcome Trust. The funders had no role in study design, data collection, analysis, interpretation, writing, or decision to submit for publication., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Personal weather stations (PWS) can provide useful data on urban climates by densifying the number of weather measurements across major cities. They do so at a lower cost than official weather stations by national meteorological services. Despite the increasing use of PWS data, little attention has yet been paid to the underlying socio-economic and environmental inequalities in PWS coverage. Using social deprivation, demographic, and environmental indicators in England and Wales, we characterize existing inequalities in the current coverage of PWS. We find that there are fewer PWS in more deprived areas which also observe higher proportions of ethnic minorities, lower vegetation coverage, higher building height and building surface fraction, and lower proportions of inhabitants under 65 years old. This implies that data on urban climate may be less reliable or more uncertain in particular areas, which may limit the potential for climate adaptation and empowerment in those communities., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Irrigation and urban greening can mitigate extreme temperatures and reduce adverse health impacts from heat. However, some recent studies suggest these interventions could actually exacerbate heat stress by increasing humidity. These studies use different heat stress indices (HSIs), hindering intercomparisons of the relative roles of temperature and humidity. Our method uses calculus of variations to compare the sensitivity of HSIs to temperature and humidity, independent of HSI units. We explain the properties of different HSIs and identify conditions under which they disagree. We highlight recent studies where the use of different HSIs could have led to opposite conclusions. Our findings have significant implications for the evaluation of irrigation and urban greening as adaptive responses to overheating and climate adaptation measures in general. We urge researchers to be critical in their choice of HSIs, especially in relation to health outcomes; our method provides a useful tool for making informed comparisons., Competing Interests: Competing Interests The authors declare no competing interests.