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18 pages, 7 figures, supplementary material https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2022.887346/full#supplementary-material.-- Data availability statement: Publicly available datasets were analyzed in this study. This data can be found at the PANGAEA DATA PUBLISHER under https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.873570; https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.878069; and https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.923299, To assess the anthropogenic effect on biodiversity, it is essential to understand the global diversity distribution of the major groups at the base of the food chain, ideally before global warming initiation (1850 Common Era CE). Since organisms in the plankton are highly interconnected and carbonate synthesizing species have a good preservation state in the Atlantic Ocean, the diversity distribution pattern of planktonic foraminifera from 1741 core-top surface sediment samples (expanded ForCenS database) provides a case study to comprehend centennial to decadal time-averaged diversity patterns at pre-1970 CE times, the tempo of the substantial increase in tropospheric warming. In this work, it is hypothesized and tested for the first time, that the large-scale diversity patterns of foraminifera communities are determined by sea surface temperature (SST, representing energy), Chl-a (a surrogate for photosynthetic biomass), and ocean kinetic energy (as EKE). Alpha diversity was estimated using species richness (S), Shannon Wiener index (H), and Simpson evenness (E), and mapped using geostatistical approaches. The three indices are significantly related to SST, Chl-a, and EKE (71-88% of the deviance in the generalized additive mixed model, including a spatial component). Beta diversity was studied through species turnover using gradient forest analysis (59% of the variation). The primary community thresholds of foraminifera species turnover were associated with 5-10 °C and 22-28 °C SST, 0.05-0.15 mg m-3 Chl-a, and 1.2-2.0 cm2 s-2 log10 EKE energy, respectively. Six of the most important foraminifera species identified for the environmental thresholds of beta diversity are also fundamental in transfer functions, further reinforcing the approaches used. The geographic location of the transition between the four main biogeographic zones was redefined based on the results of beta diversity analysis and incorporating the new datasets, identifying the major marine latitudinal gradients, the most important upwelling areas (Benguela Current, Canary Current), the Equatorial divergence, and the subtropical fronts (Gulf Stream-North Atlantic Drift path in the north, and the South Atlantic current in the south). In conclusion, we provide statistical proof that energy (SST), food supply (Chl-a), and currents (EKE) are the main environmental drivers shaping planktonic foraminifera diversity in the Atlantic ocean and define the associated thresholds for species change on those variables, This study received Portuguese national funds from FCT - Foundation for Science and Technology through projects UIDB/04326/2020, UIDP/04326/2020 LA/P/0101/2020 and PTDC/AAG-GLO/3737/2012 and PINFRA/22157/2016 – EMSO-PT. MR was funded by FCT program Ciência 2007 and is currently funded by a DL57 associated with the project “Real-time monitoring of bivalve dredge fisheries” (MONTEREAL), Program MAR2020. AV was funded by FCT researcher contract IF/01500/2014 during the initial phase of the study. ES was funded by FCT SFRH/BPD/111433/2015 and PINFRA/22157/2016 – EMSO-PT, With the institutional support of the ‘Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence’ accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S)

The ICES Working Group on Ecosystem Assessment of Western European Shelf Seas (WGEA-WESS) aims to provide high quality science in support to holistic, adaptive, evidence-based man-agement in the Celtic seas, Bay of Biscay and Iberian coast regions. The group works towards developing integrated ecosystem assessments for both the (i) Celtic Seas and (ii) Bay of Biscay and Iberian Coast which are summarized in the Ecosystem Overviews (EOs) advice products that were recently updated. Integrated Trend Analysis (ITA) were performed for multiple sub-ecoregions and used to develop an understanding of ecosystem responses to pressures at varying spatial scales. Ecosystem models (primarily Ecopath with Ecosim; EwE) were developed and identified for fisheries and spatial management advice. The updated Celtic Seas EO represents a large step forward for EOs, with the inclusion of novel sections on climate change, foodweb and productivity, the first application of the new guidelines for building the conceptual diagram, inclusion of socio-economic indicators, and progress made toward complying with the Transparent Assessment Framework (TAF). We highlight ongoing issues relevant to the development and communication of EO conceptual diagrams. A common methodology using dynamic factor analysis (DFA) was used to perform ITA in a comparable way for seven subregions. This was supported by the design and compilation of the first standardized cross-regional dataset. A comparison of the main trends evidenced among subregions over the period 1993–2020 was conducted and will be published soon. A list of available and developing EWE models for the region was also generated. Here, we re-port on the advances in temporal and spatial ecosystem modelling, such as their capacity to model the impacts of sector activities (e.g. renewables and fisheries) and quantify foodweb indi-cators. We also reflect on model quality assessment with the key run of the Irish sea EwE model. The group highlighted the hurdles and gaps in current models in support of EBM, such as the choice of a relevant functional, spatial, and temporal scales and the impacts of model structure on our capacity to draw comparisons from models of different regions. The group aims to ad-dress these issues in coming years and identify routes for ecosystem model derived information into ICES advice. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion