Rios-Blancas MJ, Pando-Robles V, Razo C, Carcamo CP, Mendoza W, Pacheco-Barrios K, Miranda JJ, Lansingh VC, Demie TG, Saha M, Okonji OC, Yigit A, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Chacón-Uscamaita PR, Bernabe E, Culquichicon C, Chirinos-Caceres JL, Cárdenas R, Alcalde-Rabanal JE, Barrera FJ, Quintanilla BPA, Shorofi SA, Wickramasinghe ND, Ferreira N, Almidani L, Gupta VK, Karimi H, Alayu DS, Benziger CP, Fukumoto T, Mostafavi E, Redwan EMM, Gebrehiwot M, Khatab K, Koyanagi A, Krapp F, Lee S, Noori M, Qattea I, Rosenthal VD, Sakshaug JW, Wagaye B, Zare I, Ortega-Altamirano DV, Murillo-Zamora E, Vervoort D, Silva DAS, Oulhaj A, Herrera-Serna BY, Mehra R, Amir-Behghadami M, Adib N, Cortés S, Dang AK, Nguyen BT, Mokdad AH, Hay SI, Murray CJL, Lozano R, and García PJ
Background: Estimating and analyzing trends and patterns of health loss are essential to promote efficient resource allocation and improve Peru's healthcare system performance., Methods: Using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (2019), we assessed mortality and disability in Peru from 1990 to 2019. We report demographic and epidemiologic trends in terms of population, life expectancy at birth (LE), mortality, incidence, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by the major diseases and risk factors in Peru. Finally, we compared Peru with 16 countries in the Latin American (LA) region., Results: The Peruvian population reached 33.9 million inhabitants (49.9% women) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, LE at birth increased from 69.2 (95% uncertainty interval 67.8-70.3) to 80.3 (77.2-83.2) years. This increase was driven by the decline in under-5 mortality (-80.7%) and mortality from infectious diseases in older age groups (+60 years old). The number of DALYs in 1990 was 9.2 million (8.5-10.1) and reached 7.5 million (6.1-9.0) in 2019. The proportion of DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) increased from 38.2% in 1990 to 67.9% in 2019. The all-ages and age-standardized DALYs rates and YLLs rates decreased, but YLDs rates remained constant. In 2019, the leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections (LRIs), ischemic heart disease, road injuries, and low back pain. The leading risk factors associated with DALYs in 2019 were undernutrition, high body mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and air pollution. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, Peru experienced one of the highest LRIs-DALYs rates in the LA region., Conclusion: In the last three decades, Peru experienced significant improvements in LE and child survival and an increase in the burden of NCDs and associated disability. The Peruvian healthcare system must be redesigned to respond to this epidemiological transition. The new design should aim to reduce premature deaths and maintain healthy longevity, focusing on effective coverage and treatment of NCDs and reducing and managing the related disability., Competing Interests: CB participation on a data safety monitoring board for COVID-out: Metformin and other COVID treatment study and is a member of the American Heart Association Epidemiology Leadership committee, outside the submitted work. LC-H is an employee of the Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Mexico and Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia. S Cortes reports support for the present manuscript from Fondo de Financiamiento de Centros de Investigacion en Areas Prioritarias (FONDAP) (grant number 15130011). VG reports grants or contracts from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), Australia, paid directly to their institution, outside the submitted work. FK reports grants or contracts from Belgian Directorate of Development Cooperation (DGD) through the Framework Agreement between the Belgian DGD and the Institute of Tropical Medicine, Belgium; Fogarty International Center of the National Institutes of Health and the University of California Global Health Institute under Award Number D43TW009343; Fogarty International Center, and National Institute of Child Health & Human Development of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number D43 TW009763, outside the submitted work. WM is a United Nations Population Fund staff at the Peru Country Office, which does not necessarily endorse these results. JM reports grants from Alliance for Health Policy and Systems Research (HQHSR1206660), Bloomberg Philanthropies (grant 46129, via University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill School of Public Health), FONDECYT via CIENCIACTIVA/CONCYTEC, British Council, British Embassy and the Newton-Paulet Fund (223-2018, 224-2018), DFID/MRC/Wellcome Global Health Trials (MR/M007405/1), Fogarty International Center (R21TW009982, D71TW010877, R21TW011740), Grand Challenges Canada (0335–04), International Development Research Center Canada (IDRC 106887, 108167), Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI CRN3036), National Cancer Institute (1P20CA217231), National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (HHSN268200900033C, 5U01HL114180, 1UM1HL134590), National Institute of Mental Health (1U19MH098780), Swiss National Science Foundation (40P740-160366), UKRI BBSRC (BB/T009004/1), UKRI EPSRC (EP/V043102/1), UKRI MRC (MR/P008984/1, MR/P024408/1, MR/P02386X/1), Wellcome (074833/Z/04/Z, 093541/Z/10/Z, 103994/Z/14/Z, 107435/Z/15/Z, 205177/Z/16/Z, 214185/Z/18/Z, 218743/Z/19/Z) and the World Diabetes Foundation (WDF15-1224), paid to their institution, and contracts from Health Action International; unpaid participation on data safety monitoring board, Nigeria Sodium Study (NaSS); Trial Steering Committee, INTEnsive care bundle with blood pressure Reduction in Acute Cerebral haemorrhage Trial (INTERACT 3); International Advisory Board, Latin American Brain Health institute (BrainLat), Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez (Chile); Consultative Board, Programa de Gastronomía, Facultad de Estudios Interdisciplinarios, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú; and Advisory Board, InterAmerican Heart Foundation (IAHF); and is the co-chair of the Independent Group of Scientists (IGS), 2023 Global Sustainable Development Report, United Nations; a is member of the Scientific Expert Committee, Global Data Collaborative for CV Population Health, World Health Federation, Microsoft, and Novartis Foundation; the Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee (STAC), Alliance for Health Policy and Systems Research, World Health Organization; the WHO Technical Advisory Group on NCD-related Research and Innovation (TAG/RI), Noncommunicable Diseases Department, World Health Organization; and the Advisory Scientific Committee, Instituto de Investigación Nutricional (Peru), all unpaid, outside the submitted work. DV reports scholarship support from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and is an unpaid board member for the Global Alliance for Rheumatic and Congenital Hearts, all outside the submitted work. IZ was employed by Sina Medical Biochemistry Technologies Co. Ltd. The remaining author declares that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 Rios-Blancas, Pando-Robles, Razo, Carcamo, Mendoza, Pacheco-Barrios, Miranda, Lansingh, Demie, Saha, Okonji, Yigit, Cahuana-Hurtado, Chacón-Uscamaita, Bernabe, Culquichicon, Chirinos-Caceres, Cárdenas, Alcalde-Rabanal, Barrera, Quintanilla, Shorofi, Wickramasinghe, Ferreira, Almidani, Gupta, Karimi, Alayu, Benziger, Fukumoto, Mostafavi, Redwan, Gebrehiwot, Khatab, Koyanagi, Krapp, Lee, Noori, Qattea, Rosenthal, Sakshaug, Wagaye, Zare, Ortega-Altamirano, Murillo-Zamora, Vervoort, Silva, Oulhaj, Herrera-Serna, Mehra, Amir-Behghadami, Adib, Cortés, Dang, Nguyen, Mokdad, Hay, Murray, Lozano and García.)