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We use the NewHorizon simulation to study the redshift evolution of bar properties and fractions within galaxies in the stellar masses range M ⋆ = 107.25–1011.4 |$\, \rm {M}_\odot$| over the redshift range of z  = 0.25–1.3. We select disc galaxies using stellar kinematics as a proxy for galaxy morphology. We employ two different automated bar detection methods, coupled with visual inspection, resulting in observable bar fractions of f bar = 0.070 |$_{{-0.012}}^{{+0.018}}$| at z ∼ 1.3, decreasing to f bar = 0.011 |$_{{-0.003}}^{{+0.014}}$| at z ∼ 0.25. Only one galaxy is visually confirmed as strongly barred in our sample. This bar is hosted by the most massive disc and only survives from z  = 1.3 down to z  = 0.7. Such a low bar fraction, in particular amongst Milky Way-like progenitors, highlights a missing bars problem, shared by literally all cosmological simulations with spatial resolution <100 pc to date. The analysis of linear growth rates, rotation curves, and derived summary statistics of the stellar, gas and dark matter components suggest that galaxies with stellar masses below 109.5−1010 |$\, \rm {M}_\odot$| in NewHorizon appear to be too dominated by dark matter relative to stellar content to form a bar, while more massive galaxies typically have formed large bulges that prevent bar persistence at low redshift. This investigation confirms that the evolution of the bar fraction puts stringent constraints on the assembly history of baryons and dark matter on to galaxies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate variability and natural hazards like floods and earthquakes can act as environmental shocks or socioecological stressors leading to instability and suffering throughout human history. Yet, societies experience a wide range of outcomes when facing such challenges: some suffer from social unrest, civil violence or complete collapse; others prove more resilient and maintain key social functions. We currently lack a clear, generally agreed-upon conceptual framework and evidentiary base to explore what causes these divergent outcomes. Here, we discuss efforts to develop such a framework through the Crisis Database (CrisisDB) programme. We illustrate that the impact of environmental stressors is mediated through extant cultural, political and economic structures that evolve over extended timescales (decades to centuries). These structures can generate high resilience to major shocks, facilitate positive adaptation, or, alternatively, undermine collective action and lead to unrest, violence and even societal collapse. By exposing the ways that different societies have reacted to crises over their lifetime, this framework can help identify the factors and complex social-ecological interactions that either bolster or undermine resilience to contemporary climate shocks. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.

During the Holocene, the scale and complexity of human societies increased markedly. Generations of scholars have proposed different theories explaining this expansion, which range from broadly functionalist explanations, focusing on the provision of public goods, to conflict theories, emphasizing the role of class struggle or warfare. To quantitatively test these theories, we develop a general dynamical model based on the theoretical framework of cultural macroevolution. Using this model and Seshat: Global History Databank, we test 17 potential predictor variables proxying mechanisms suggested by major theories of sociopolitical complexity (and >100,000 combinations of these predictors). The best-supported model indicates a strong causal role played by a combination of increasing agricultural productivity and invention/adoption of military technologies (most notably, iron weapons and cavalry in the first millennium BCE).

What have been the causes and consequences of technological evolution in world history? In particular, what propels innovation and diffusion of military technologies, details of which are comparatively well preserved and which are often seen as drivers of broad socio-cultural processes? Here we analyze the evolution of key military technologies in a sample of pre-industrial societies world-wide covering almost 10,000 years of history using Seshat: Global History Databank. We empirically test previously speculative theories that proposed world population size, connectivity between geographical areas of innovation and adoption, and critical enabling technological advances, such as iron metallurgy and horse riding, as central drivers of military technological evolution. We find that all of these factors are strong predictors of change in military technology, whereas state-level factors such as polity population, territorial size, or governance sophistication play no major role. We discuss how our approach can be extended to explore technological change more generally, and how our results carry important ramifications for understanding major drivers of evolution of social complexity., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.