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Subsistence farmers in elephant rangelands suffer food insecurity, economic losses and emotional stress from crop damage by elephants, resulting in reduced local support toward elephant conservation. To foster human-elephant co-existence in a dynamic social-ecological system, we explored the validity of Classification Tree (CT) analysis application to identify human-elephant hotspots in an effort to target approaches to reduce human-elephant conflicts. The CT analysis revealed that the most important factors affecting occurrence of crop damage were crop types, field sizes and distance to nearest road and river. From CT generated thresholds, we propose establishment of multi-criteria-based risk zones, as an alternative approach, to quickly identify and prioritize future human-elephant conflict (HEC) hotspots for improved agrarian livelihood and elephant conservation outcomes. We also explained the limitations of CT models. This study contributes to the existing theory and body of work on elephant habitat use at the human-elephant interface. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human LULCC is the many driver of environmental changes. Accurate and up-to-date current and predicted information on LULCC is important in land use planning and natural resource management; however, in Zambia, detailed information on LULCC is insufficient. Therefore, this study assessed the dynamics of LULC change (2000–2020) and future projections (2020–2030) for Zambia. The ESA CCI land cover maps, which have been developed from Sentinel-2 images were used in this study. This dataset has a grid spatial resolution of 300 m for the 2000, 2010 and 2020. The 31 ESA CCI Classification were reclassified into ten (10) local Classifications using the r.class module in QGIS 2.18.14. The 2000 and 2010 LULC maps were used to simulate the 2020 LULC scenario using Artificial Neural Network (Multi-layer Perception) algorithms in Modules for Land Use Change Evaluation (MOLUSCE) plugin in QGIS 2.18.14. The 2010 and 2020 maps were used to predict the 2030 LULC classes. The reference 2020 and predicted 2020 LULC maps were used to validate the model. Predicted against observed 2020 LULC map, Kappa (loc) statistic was 0.9869. The 2020 LULC patterns was successfully simulated using ANN-MLP with accuracy level of 95%. LULC classes were predicted for 2030 using the 2010–2020 calibration period. The predicted 2030 LULC types shows an increase in built-up (71.44%) and decrease in cropland (0.73%) with reference to 2020 LULC map. Dense forest (0.19%), grassland (0.85%) and bare land (1.37%) will reduce from 2020–2030. However, seasonally flooded, sparse forest, shrub land, wetland and water body will increase marginally. The largest LULC change is from forest into other LULC types. The insights from this study show that ANN-MLP can be used to predict LULCC, and that the generated information can be employed in land use planning and National Adaptation Plans at regional and national scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Goal and Objectives: This paper examined the relations between informal documentations and land tenure security on change in land use/cover. Using Chamuka land registration, the paper focuses on caused of land use/cover change and how informal documents-based land dealings leads to tenure security and a more productive land use. Methodology: The study used various methods, including 345 households' interviews, group discussions and satellite images of 2010, 2015 and 2020, to understand how land ownership in Chamuka chiefdom effect on land use. Results: The study results shows that the introduction of Land Advisory Boards (LABs), Customary Certificate of Land Occupancy (CCLO) and the land register has scored several successes (i.e., increase in land rights, ownership, low cost of land registration, tenure security and reduction in land-related conflicts. Other improvements include the practice of conservation farming, i.e. agroforestry, fire management resulting to improved crop and livestock farming. Despite these positive results, the satellite images showed decline in vegetation and forest cover due to expansion of agricultural area, buildup and decrease in water bodies. This study provides new insights into how the evolution of the traditional land tenure system, as an integral part of resource governance, its effect on land use/cover. Next to suggesting is how to strengthen informal documents, and efficiency of local land management institutions in order to reduce loss of vegetation and deforestation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pollution of aquatic ecosystems is one of the major challenges affecting many countries of the world. Heavy metal pollutants, in particular, threaten the life of aquatic organisms (fauna and flora) and, more importantly, humans who consume aquatic products as a critical source of proteins. In the present study, the concentrations of selected heavy metals (cobalt- Co, Chromium-Cr, nickel- Ni and manganese- Mn) in Limnothrissa miodon, locally known as 'Kapenta' were assessed using the Microwave Plasma Atomic Emission Spectrometer (MP AES) 4200 at the Zambia Agricultural Research Institute (ZARI). The fish was collected from Lake Kariba, Zambia, which is divided into four fisheries management strata (I, II, III, and IV). The health risks to consumers were evaluated using the Estimated Daily Intake (EDI), Target Hazard Quotient (THQ) and Hazard Index (HI). Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to assess the difference in the means of heavy metal concentration across the four strata for each element. The concentrations of all the heavy metal elements were within the permissible limits considered to be safe for human consumption based on the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) standards. However, the concentration of individual heavy metal elements varied significantly across the strata with stratum I and II showing higher levels in general except for Mn which was highest in stratum II and III compared with the other strata. Furthermore, Mn concentration was the highest in all the strata and the highest concentration was observed in the fish from stratum II. The EDIs, THQs and HIs of each heavy metal element did not show any threat to consumers of the fish from the lake. Further studies are required to better understand the potential sources of heavy metals and to regularly monitor existing activities that may elevate the concentration levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]