Search

BackgroundA multi-country outbreak caused by monkeypox virus (MPXV) has been unfolding across endemic and non-endemic countries since May 2022. Throughout April and May 2022, Nigeria reported 31 MPXV cases, of which 11 were confirmed via testing. In May 2022, three internationally exported cases of MPXV, presumed to have originated in Nigeria, were reported, suggesting that a larger than reported outbreak might be occurring in the country.MethodsWe used previously established methods to estimate the true size of the MPXV outbreak in Nigeria. We estimated the incidence rate of exported MPXV cases among all outbound international air travellers from Nigeria during the time period of April and May 2022, using forecasted air traveller volumes. We then applied this incidence rate to the entire population of Nigeria during April and May 2022 assuming that the rate of infection was the same in Nigeria for both travellers and the resident population. Information on the subset of population that were considered to be travellers was obtained from the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO).ResultsWe estimated that there were approximately 4000 (N = 4013; 95% CI: 828–11 728) active cases of MPXV in Nigeria in April and May 2022. This is approximately 360-fold greater than the confirmed number and approximately 130-fold greater than the reported number of cases in Nigeria.ConclusionOur findings suggest that a larger outbreak than is appreciated may be ongoing in Nigeria. The observed international spread of MPXV offers important insights into the scale of the epidemic at its origin, where clinical detection and disease surveillance may be limited. These findings highlight the need to expand and support clinical, laboratory, and public health capacity to enable earlier detection of epidemics of international significance.

The aim of this study was to estimate the real-world incidence of self-reported non-severe hypoglycemia (NSH) and its related sociodemographic and clinical risk factors in a general population of Canadian adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) taking insulin and/or secretagogues.Data for this study were obtained from the InHypo-DM Study. Self-reported data on the frequency of NSH (past 30 days) as well as sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were collected through an online questionnaire. Risk factors for any, daytime and nocturnal NSH were identified using multivariable negative binomial regression with backward selection.Among 432 adults with T2DM (43.8% female, mean age of 53.1 years), 53.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 49.2% to 58.6%) reported ≥1 event of any (i.e. daytime or nocturnal) NSH in the past 30 days. The 30-day incidence rate of any NSH was 2.3 events per 30 person-days (95% CI, 2.1 to 2.4). Risk factors associated with the increased rate of any NSH were younger age, lower annual household income, being employed, longer duration of diabetes, higher glycated hemoglobin and presence of comorbidity. Risk factors were generally similar for daytime NSH (except for the exclusion of diabetes duration and addition of diabetes medication type) and nocturnal NSH (except for the exclusion of being employed).This is the largest Canadian investigation to estimate the real-world frequency and distribution of self-reported NSH in T2DM. Events were alarmingly frequent and recurrent. Numerous sociodemographic and clinical risk factors were elucidated. These results highlight the importance of identifying high-risk individuals to minimize future occurrences of hypoglycemia.