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Understanding the sensitivity of tidal flats to environmental changes is challenging. Currently, most studies rely on process-based models to systematically explain the morphodynamic evolution of tidal flats. In this study, we proposed an alternative empirical approach to explore tidal flat dynamics using statistical indices based on long-term time series of daily surface elevation development. Surface elevation dynamic (SED) indices focus on the magnitude and period of surface elevation changes, while morphodynamic signature (MDS) indices relate sediment dynamics to environmental drivers. The statistical analyses were applied to an intervention site in the Netherlands to determine the effect of recently constructed groynes on the tidal flat. Using these analyses, we were able to (1) detect a reduction in the daily SED and (2) determine that the changes in the daily SED were predominantly caused by the reduction in wave impact between the groynes rather than the reduction in tidal currents. Overall, the presented results showed that the combination of novel statistical indices provides new insights into the trajectories of tidal flats, ecosystem functioning, and sensitivity to physical drivers (wind and tides). Finally, we suggested how the SED and MDS indices may help to explore the future trajectories and climate resilience of intertidal habitats.

Yalimapo beach, near the Maroni River estuary in French Guiana, is an important turtle nesting site. The interaction of massive mud banks migrating alongshore from the distant Amazon River with discharge from the Maroni River generates strong beach morpho-sedimentary changes. The eventual degradation of the marine turtle nesting habitats resulting from these changes represents a threat to the offspring, and consequently, to the turtle population. Field operator counts of green and leatherback turtle nests were combined with high-resolution topographic measurements of the beach over four field surveys in 2012 and 2014 to map the topographic modifications susceptible to affect nesting on Yalimapo beach. We assumed that the survival of nests was at stake when the depth of sand between the egg chamber and the topographic surface (i.e. the top) of the beach was < 50 cm, and that beach surface lowering > 10 cm represented unfavourable conditions for nest safety with unequal nest survival across the beach. Erosion of the beach surface exceeding a depth of 50 cm therefore results in nest destruction. Digital elevation models were produced to quantify the topographic modification of nesting on Yalimapo beach and highlight the endangered nesting areas. As the modification of the beach is not linear, some sectors are more eroded than others, resulting in unequal nest survival across the beach. Overall, up to 40% of the nests were presumed destroyed over the 2 years of survey, but true losses would depend on the species and the preferential locations of their nesting habitats. The relatively unfavourable conditions that prevailed during the 2 years of the survey are consistent with persistent erosion of Yalimpao beach since 2011. This ongoing erosion could explain in part the drastic decline of the leatherback turtle population in western French Guiana over the period 2001–2018. The substrate quality and dynamics of the nesting beach in relation to the preferred nesting habitat of each species are therefore critical issues that should be considered in the conservation strategies of marine turtles. The beach nesting conditions of marine turtles in French Guiana, as elsewhere, could be further aggravated in the future by climate change effects, including sea-level rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]