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Rigorously establishing the safety of black-box machine learning models concerning critical risk measures is important for providing guarantees about model behavior. Recently, Bates et. al. (JACM '24) introduced the notion of a risk controlling prediction set (RCPS) for producing prediction sets that are statistically guaranteed low risk from machine learning models. Our method extends this notion to the sequential setting, where we provide guarantees even when the data is collected adaptively, and ensures that the risk guarantee is anytime-valid, i.e., simultaneously holds at all time steps. Further, we propose a framework for constructing RCPSes for active labeling, i.e., allowing one to use a labeling policy that chooses whether to query the true label for each received data point and ensures that the expected proportion of data points whose labels are queried are below a predetermined label budget. We also describe how to use predictors (i.e., the machine learning model for which we provide risk control guarantees) to further improve the utility of our RCPSes by estimating the expected risk conditioned on the covariates. We characterize the optimal choices of label policy and predictor under a fixed label budget and show a regret result that relates the estimation error of the optimal labeling policy and predictor to the wealth process that underlies our RCPSes. Lastly, we present practical ways of formulating label policies and empirically show that our label policies use fewer labels to reach higher utility than naive baseline labeling strategies (e.g., labeling all points, randomly labeling points) on both simulations and real data., Comment: 25 pages, 6 figures

A Flow is a collection of component models ("Agents") which constructs the solution to a complex problem via iterative communication. Flows have emerged as state of the art architectures for code generation, and are the raison d'etre for frameworks like Autogen. However, flows are currently constructed via a combination of manual prompt engineering and stagewise supervised learning techniques; the latter is limited to acyclic flows with granular node supervision. In this writeup I describe a procedure for online joint fine-tuning of an entire flow inspired by the Learning to Search framework. The approach leverages simulator access to reduce preferences over entire episodes to preferences over individual node outputs; when the components are language models the latter is a well-studied problem. The approach is applicable to reward-free settings (e.g., text feedback) if an episode evaluator model is available. I apply to the multi-hop QA dataset Musique achieving a state-of-the-art result.

Interactive-Grounded Learning (IGL) [Xie et al., 2021] is a powerful framework in which a learner aims at maximizing unobservable rewards through interacting with an environment and observing reward-dependent feedback on the taken actions. To deal with personalized rewards that are ubiquitous in applications such as recommendation systems, Maghakian et al. [2022] study a version of IGL with context-dependent feedback, but their algorithm does not come with theoretical guarantees. In this work, we consider the same problem and provide the first provably efficient algorithms with sublinear regret under realizability. Our analysis reveals that the step-function estimator of prior work can deviate uncontrollably due to finite-sample effects. Our solution is a novel Lipschitz reward estimator which underestimates the true reward and enjoys favorable generalization performances. Building on this estimator, we propose two algorithms, one based on explore-then-exploit and the other based on inverse-gap weighting. We apply IGL to learning from image feedback and learning from text feedback, which are reward-free settings that arise in practice. Experimental results showcase the importance of using our Lipschitz reward estimator and the overall effectiveness of our algorithms.

We study interactive learning of LLM-based language agents based on user edits made to the agent's output. In a typical setting such as writing assistants, the user interacts with a language agent to generate a response given a context, and may optionally edit the agent response to personalize it based on their latent preference, in addition to improving the correctness. The edit feedback is naturally generated, making it a suitable candidate for improving the agent's alignment with the user's preference, and for reducing the cost of user edits over time. We propose a learning framework, PRELUDE that infers a description of the user's latent preference based on historic edit data. The inferred user preference descriptions are used to define prompts for generating responses in the future. This avoids fine-tuning the agent, which is costly, challenging to scale with the number of users, and may even degrade its performance on other tasks. Furthermore, learning descriptive preference improves interpretability, allowing the user to view and modify the learned preference. However, user preference can be complex, subtle, and vary based on context, making it challenging to learn. To address this, we propose a simple yet effective algorithm named CIPHER that leverages the LLM to infer the user preference for a given context based on user edits. In the future, CIPHER retrieves inferred preferences from the k-closest contexts in the history, and forms an aggregate preference for response generation. We introduce two interactive environments -- summarization and email writing, and use a GPT-4 simulated user for evaluation. On both tasks, CIPHER outperforms several baselines by achieving the lowest edit distance cost while only having a small overhead in LLM query cost. Our analysis reports that user preferences learned by CIPHER show significant similarity to the ground truth latent preferences.

Bandits with feedback graphs are powerful online learning models that interpolate between the full information and classic bandit problems, capturing many real-life applications. A recent work by Zhang et al. (2023) studies the contextual version of this problem and proposes an efficient and optimal algorithm via a reduction to online regression. However, their algorithm crucially relies on seeing the feedback graph before making each decision, while in many applications, the feedback graph is uninformed, meaning that it is either only revealed after the learner makes her decision or even never fully revealed at all. This work develops the first contextual algorithm for such uninformed settings, via an efficient reduction to online regression over both the losses and the graphs. Importantly, we show that it is critical to learn the graphs using log loss instead of squared loss to obtain favorable regret guarantees. We also demonstrate the empirical effectiveness of our algorithm on a bidding application using both synthetic and real-world data.

Estimation of the complete distribution of a random variable is a useful primitive for both manual and automated decision making. This problem has received extensive attention in the i.i.d. setting, but the arbitrary data dependent setting remains largely unaddressed. Consistent with known impossibility results, we present computationally felicitous time-uniform and value-uniform bounds on the CDF of the running averaged conditional distribution of a real-valued random variable which are always valid and sometimes trivial, along with an instance-dependent convergence guarantee. The importance-weighted extension is appropriate for estimating complete counterfactual distributions of rewards given controlled experimentation data exhaust, e.g., from an A/B test or a contextual bandit.

While contextual bandit has a mature theory, effectively leveraging different feedback patterns to enhance the pace of learning remains unclear. Bandits with feedback graphs, which interpolates between the full information and bandit regimes, provides a promising framework to mitigate the statistical complexity of learning. In this paper, we propose and analyze an approach to contextual bandits with feedback graphs based upon reduction to regression. The resulting algorithms are computationally practical and achieve established minimax rates, thereby reducing the statistical complexity in real-world applications.

For infinite action contextual bandits, smoothed regret and reduction to regression results in state-of-the-art online performance with computational cost independent of the action set: unfortunately, the resulting data exhaust does not have well-defined importance-weights. This frustrates the execution of downstream data science processes such as offline model selection. In this paper we describe an online algorithm with an equivalent smoothed regret guarantee, but which generates well-defined importance weights: in exchange, the online computational cost increases, but only to order smoothness (i.e., still independent of the action set). This removes a key obstacle to adoption of smoothed regret in production scenarios., Comment: Final version after responding to reviewers

In an era of countless content offerings, recommender systems alleviate information overload by providing users with personalized content suggestions. Due to the scarcity of explicit user feedback, modern recommender systems typically optimize for the same fixed combination of implicit feedback signals across all users. However, this approach disregards a growing body of work highlighting that (i) implicit signals can be used by users in diverse ways, signaling anything from satisfaction to active dislike, and (ii) different users communicate preferences in different ways. We propose applying the recent Interaction Grounded Learning (IGL) paradigm to address the challenge of learning representations of diverse user communication modalities. Rather than requiring a fixed, human-designed reward function, IGL is able to learn personalized reward functions for different users and then optimize directly for the latent user satisfaction. We demonstrate the success of IGL with experiments using simulations as well as with real-world production traces., Comment: ICLR 2023

Modern decision-making systems, from robots to web recommendation engines, are expected to adapt: to user preferences, changing circumstances or even new tasks. Yet, it is still uncommon to deploy a dynamically learning agent (rather than a fixed policy) to a production system, as it's perceived as unsafe. Using historical data to reason about learning algorithms, similar to offline policy evaluation (OPE) applied to fixed policies, could help practitioners evaluate and ultimately deploy such adaptive agents to production. In this work, we formalize offline learner simulation (OLS) for reinforcement learning (RL) and propose a novel evaluation protocol that measures both fidelity and efficiency of the simulation. For environments with complex high-dimensional observations, we propose a semi-parametric approach that leverages recent advances in latent state discovery in order to achieve accurate and efficient offline simulations. In preliminary experiments, we show the advantage of our approach compared to fully non-parametric baselines. The code to reproduce these experiments will be made available at https://github.com/microsoft/rl-offline-simulation., Comment: Presented at the 3rd Offline Reinforcement Learning Workshop at NeurIPS 2022

This work introduces the Eigen Memory Tree (EMT), a novel online memory model for sequential learning scenarios. EMTs store data at the leaves of a binary tree and route new samples through the structure using the principal components of previous experiences, facilitating efficient (logarithmic) access to relevant memories. We demonstrate that EMT outperforms existing online memory approaches, and provide a hybridized EMT-parametric algorithm that enjoys drastically improved performance over purely parametric methods with nearly no downsides. Our findings are validated using 206 datasets from the OpenML repository in both bounded and infinite memory budget situations., Comment: corrected an author name; corrected title plurality

Modern analytical workloads are highly heterogeneous and massively complex, making generic query optimizers untenable for many customers and scenarios. As a result, it is important to specialize these optimizers to instances of the workloads. In this paper, we continue a recent line of work in steering a query optimizer towards better plans for a given workload, and make major strides in pushing previous research ideas to production deployment. Along the way we solve several operational challenges including, making steering actions more manageable, keeping the costs of steering within budget, and avoiding unexpected performance regressions in production. Our resulting system, QQ-advisor, essentially externalizes the query planner to a massive offline pipeline for better exploration and specialization. We discuss various aspects of our design and show detailed results over production SCOPE workloads at Microsoft, where the system is currently enabled by default.

Contextual bandits with average-case statistical guarantees are inadequate in risk-averse situations because they might trade off degraded worst-case behaviour for better average performance. Designing a risk-averse contextual bandit is challenging because exploration is necessary but risk-aversion is sensitive to the entire distribution of rewards; nonetheless we exhibit the first risk-averse contextual bandit algorithm with an online regret guarantee. We conduct experiments from diverse scenarios where worst-case outcomes should be avoided, from dynamic pricing, inventory management, and self-tuning software; including a production exascale data processing system.

A confidence sequence (CS) is an anytime-valid sequential inference primitive which produces an adapted sequence of sets for a predictable parameter sequence with a time-uniform coverage guarantee. This work constructs a non-parametric non-asymptotic lower CS for the running average conditional expectation whose slack converges to zero given non-negative right heavy-tailed observations with bounded mean. Specifically, when the variance is finite the approach dominates the empirical Bernstein supermartingale of Howard et. al.; with infinite variance, can adapt to a known or unknown $(1 + \delta)$-th moment bound; and can be efficiently approximated using a sublinear number of sufficient statistics. In certain cases this lower CS can be converted into a closed-interval CS whose width converges to zero, e.g., any bounded realization, or post contextual-bandit inference with bounded rewards and unbounded importance weights. A reference implementation and example simulations demonstrate the technique., Comment: Reference implementation at https://github.com/microsoft/csrobust

Contextual bandit algorithms are ubiquitous tools for active sequential experimentation in healthcare and the tech industry. They involve online learning algorithms that adaptively learn policies over time to map observed contexts $X_t$ to actions $A_t$ in an attempt to maximize stochastic rewards $R_t$. This adaptivity raises interesting but hard statistical inference questions, especially counterfactual ones: for example, it is often of interest to estimate the properties of a hypothetical policy that is different from the logging policy that was used to collect the data -- a problem known as ``off-policy evaluation'' (OPE). Using modern martingale techniques, we present a comprehensive framework for OPE inference that relax unnecessary conditions made in some past works, significantly improving on them both theoretically and empirically. Importantly, our methods can be employed while the original experiment is still running (that is, not necessarily post-hoc), when the logging policy may be itself changing (due to learning), and even if the context distributions are a highly dependent time-series (such as if they are drifting over time). More concretely, we derive confidence sequences for various functionals of interest in OPE. These include doubly robust ones for time-varying off-policy mean reward values, but also confidence bands for the entire cumulative distribution function of the off-policy reward distribution. All of our methods (a) are valid at arbitrary stopping times (b) only make nonparametric assumptions, (c) do not require importance weights to be uniformly bounded and if they are, we do not need to know these bounds, and (d) adapt to the empirical variance of our estimators. In summary, our methods enable anytime-valid off-policy inference using adaptively collected contextual bandit data., Comment: 43 pages, 6 figures

Designing efficient general-purpose contextual bandit algorithms that work with large -- or even continuous -- action spaces would facilitate application to important scenarios such as information retrieval, recommendation systems, and continuous control. While obtaining standard regret guarantees can be hopeless, alternative regret notions have been proposed to tackle the large action setting. We propose a smooth regret notion for contextual bandits, which dominates previously proposed alternatives. We design a statistically and computationally efficient algorithm -- for the proposed smooth regret -- that works with general function approximation under standard supervised oracles. We also present an adaptive algorithm that automatically adapts to any smoothness level. Our algorithms can be used to recover the previous minimax/Pareto optimal guarantees under the standard regret, e.g., in bandit problems with multiple best arms and Lipschitz/H{\"o}lder bandits. We conduct large-scale empirical evaluations demonstrating the efficacy of our proposed algorithms., Comment: To appear at ICML 2022

A central problem in sequential decision making is to develop algorithms that are practical and computationally efficient, yet support the use of flexible, general-purpose models. Focusing on the contextual bandit problem, recent progress provides provably efficient algorithms with strong empirical performance when the number of possible alternatives ("actions") is small, but guarantees for decision making in large, continuous action spaces have remained elusive, leading to a significant gap between theory and practice. We present the first efficient, general-purpose algorithm for contextual bandits with continuous, linearly structured action spaces. Our algorithm makes use of computational oracles for (i) supervised learning, and (ii) optimization over the action space, and achieves sample complexity, runtime, and memory independent of the size of the action space. In addition, it is simple and practical. We perform a large-scale empirical evaluation, and show that our approach typically enjoys superior performance and efficiency compared to standard baselines., Comment: To appear at ICML 2022

Consider the problem setting of Interaction-Grounded Learning (IGL), in which a learner's goal is to optimally interact with the environment with no explicit reward to ground its policies. The agent observes a context vector, takes an action, and receives a feedback vector, using this information to effectively optimize a policy with respect to a latent reward function. Prior analyzed approaches fail when the feedback vector contains the action, which significantly limits IGL's success in many potential scenarios such as Brain-computer interface (BCI) or Human-computer interface (HCI) applications. We address this by creating an algorithm and analysis which allows IGL to work even when the feedback vector contains the action, encoded in any fashion. We provide theoretical guarantees and large-scale experiments based on supervised datasets to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new approach., Comment: Published in NeurIPS 2022