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Insights into assemblages that can persist in extreme environments are still emerging. Ocean warming and acidification select against species with low physiological tolerance (trait-based 'filtering'). However, intraspecific trait variation can promote species adaptation and persistence, with potentially large effects on assemblage structure. By sampling nine coral traits (four morphological, four tissue and one skeletal) along an offshore-inshore gradient in temperature and pH, we show that distantly related coral species undergo consistent intraspecific changes as they cross into warm, acidic environments. Intraspecific variation and species turnover each favoured colonies with greater tissue biomass, higher symbiont densities and reduced skeletal investments, indicating strong filtering on colony physiology within and across species. Physiological tissue traits were highly variable within species and were independent of morphology, enabling morphologically diverse species to cross into sites of elevated temperature and acidity. Widespread intraspecific change can therefore counter the loss of biodiversity and morphological structure across a steep environmental gradient.

JSM and MM were supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF)1948946. MD is supported by the Warman Foundation, the Leverhulme Centre for Anthropocene Biodiversity (RC-2018-021) and NSF-NERC grant NE/V009338/1. MM is supported by a Leverhulme Trust Early Career Fellowship (ECF-2021-512). Life-history traits are promising tools to predict species commonness and rarity because they influence a population's fitness in a given environment. Yet, species with similar traits can have vastly different abundances, challenging the prospect of robust trait-based predictions. Using long-term demographic monitoring, we show that coral populations with similar morphological and life-history traits show persistent (decade-long) differences in abundance. Morphological groups predicted species positions along two, well-known life-history axes (the fast-slow continuum and size-specific fecundity). However, integral projection models revealed that density-independent population growth (λ) was more variable within morphological groups, and was consistently higher in dominant species relative to rare species. Within-group λ differences projected large abundance differences among similar species in short timeframes, and were generated by small but compounding variation in growth, survival, and reproduction. Our study shows that easily-measured morphological traits predict demographic strategies, yet small life-history differences can accumulate into large differences in λ and abundance among similar species. Quantifying the net effects of multiple traits on population dynamics is therefore essential to anticipate species commonness and rarity. Publisher PDF

Humans have long sought to restore species, but little attention has been directed at how to best select a subset of foundation species for maintaining rich assemblages that support ecosystems, like coral reefs and rainforests that are increasingly threatened by environmental change.We propose a two-part hedging approach that selects optimized sets of species for restoration. The first part acknowledges that biodiversity supports ecosystem functions and services, and so it takes precaution against loss by ensuring an even spread of phenotypic traits. The second part maximizes species and ecosystem persistence by weighting species based on characteristics that are known to improve ecological persistence—e.g., abundance, species range and tolerance to environmental change.Using existing phenotypic trait and ecological characteristic data for reef building corals, we identified sets of ecologically persistent species by examining marginal returns in occupancy of phenotypic trait space. We compared optimal sets of species with those from the world’s southern-most coral reef which naturally harbors low coral diversity to show these occupy much of the trait space. Comparison with an existing coral restoration program indicated that current corals used for restoration only cover part of the desired trait space and may be improved by including species with different traits.Synthesis and applications. While there are many possible criteria for selecting species for restoration, the approach proposed here addresses the need to insure against unpredictable losses of ecosystem services by focusing on a wide range of phenotypic traits and ecological characteristics. Furthermore, the flexibility of the approach enables the functional goals of restoration to vary depending on environmental context, stakeholder values, and the spatial and temporal scales at which meaningful impacts can be achieved.