Search

Accurate long-term PM2.5 prediction is crucial for environmental management and public health. However, previous studies have mainly focused on short-term air quality point predictions, neglecting the importance of accurately predicting the long-term trends of PM2.5 and studying the uncertainty of PM2.5 concentration changes. The traditional approaches have limitations in capturing nonlinear relationships and complex dynamic patterns in time series, and they often overlook the credibility of prediction results in practical applications. Therefore, there is still much room for improvement in long-term prediction of PM2.5. This study proposes a novel long-term point and interval prediction framework for urban air quality based on multi-source spatial and temporal data, which further quantifies the uncertainty and volatility of the prediction based on the accurate PM2.5 point prediction. In this model, firstly, multi-source datasets from multiple monitoring stations are preprocessed. Subsequently, spatial clustering of stations based on POI data is performed to filter out strongly correlated stations, and feature selection is performed to eliminate redundant features. In this paper, the ConvFormer-KDE model is presented, whereby local patterns and short-term dependencies among multivariate variables are mined through a convolutional neural network (CNN), long-term dependencies among time-series data are extracted using the Transformer model, and a direct multi-output strategy is employed to realize the long-term point prediction of PM2.5 concentration. KDE is utilized to derive prediction intervals for PM2.5 concentration at confidence levels of 85%, 90%, and 95%, respectively, reflecting the uncertainty inherent in long-term trends of PM2.5. The performance of ConvFormer-KDE was compared with a list of advanced models. Experimental results showed that ConvFormer-KDE outperformed baseline models in long-term point- and interval-prediction tasks for PM2.5. The ConvFormer-KDE can provide a valuable early warning basis for future PM2.5 changes from the aspects of point and interval prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The proportion of trips driving children to school has experienced a sharp increase throughout recent decades, which is accompanied by less physical activity among students, severe traffic congestion during peak hours, and extreme environmental pollution. This study aimed to test the Stage model of Self-regulated Behavioral Change (SSBC) to understand and explain parents' decision-making process about children's school travel mode shifting from car use to active school travel. A structural equation model and generalized ordinal logistic regression were used to test the parents' intention change process. The results show that the model accounted for 94%, 77%, and 69% of the variance in goal intention, behavioral intention, and implementation intention, respectively. Habitual behavior of private vehicle use would, to some extent, hinder parents' intentions to shift from driving to active school mode use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intelligent maritime transportation system has emerged as a pivotal component in port management, owing to the rapid advancements in artificial intelligence and big data technology. Its essence lies in the application of digital modeling techniques, which leverage extensive ship data to facilitate efficient operations. In this regard, effective modeling and accurate prediction of the fluctuation patterns of ship traffic in multiple port regions will provide data support for trade analysis, port construction planning, and traffic safety management. In order to better express the potential interdependencies between ports, inspired by graph neural networks, this paper proposes a data-driven approach to construct a multi-port network and designs a spatiotemporal graph neural network model. The model incorporates graph attention networks and a dilated causal convolutional architecture to capture the temporal and spatial dimensions of traffic variation patterns. It also employs a gated-mechanism-based spatiotemporal bi-dimensional feature fusion strategy to handle the potential unequal relationships between the two dimensions of features. Compared to existing methods for port traffic prediction, this model fully considers the network characteristics of the overall port and fills the research gap in multi-port scenarios. In the experiments, real port ship traffic datasets were constructed using data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) and port geographical information data for model validation. The results demonstrate that the model exhibits outstanding robustness and performs well in predicting traffic in multiple sub-regional port clusters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extracting roads from remote sensing images is of significant importance for automatic road network updating, urban planning, and construction. However, various factors in complex scenes (e.g., high vegetation coverage occlusions) may lead to fragmentation in the extracted road networks and also affect the robustness of road extraction methods. This study proposes a multi-scale road extraction method with asymmetric generative adversarial learning (MS-AGAN). First, we design an asymmetric GAN with a multi-scale feature encoder to better utilize the context information in high-resolution remote sensing images (HRSIs). Atrous spatial pyramid pooling (ASPP) and feature fusion are integrated into the asymmetric encoder–decoder structure to avoid feature redundancy caused by multi-level cascading operations and enhance the generator network's ability to extract fine-grained road information at the pixel level. Second, to maintain road connectivity, topologic features are considered in the pixel segmentation process. A linear structural similarity loss ( L S S I M ) is introduced into the loss function of MS-AGAN, which guides MS-AGAN to generate more accurate segmentation results. Finally, to fairly evaluate the performance of deep models under complex backgrounds, the Bayesian error rate (BER) is introduced into the field of road extraction for the first time. Experiments are conducted via Gaofen-2 (GF-2) high-resolution remote sensing images with high vegetation coverage in the Daxing District of Beijing, China, and the public DeepGlobe dataset. The performance of MS-AGAN is compared with a list of advanced models, including RCFSNet, CoANet, UNet, DeepLabV3+, and DiResNet. The final results show that (1) with respect to road extraction performance, the Recall, F1, and IoU values of MS-AGAN on the Daxing dataset are 2.17%, 0.04%, and 2.63% higher than the baselines. On DeepGlobe, the Recall, F1, and IoU of MS-AGAN improve by 1.12%, 0.42%, and 0.25%, respectively. (2) On road connectivity, the Conn index of MS-AGAN from the Daxing dataset is 46.39%, with an improvement of 0.62% over the baselines, and the Conn index of MS-AGAN on DeepGlobe is 70.08%, holding an improvement of 1.73% over CoANet. The quantitative and qualitative analyses both demonstrate the superiority of MS-AGAN in preserving road connectivity. (3) In particular, the BER of MS-AGAN is 20.86% over the Daxing dataset with a 0.22% decrease compared to the best baselines and 11.77% on DeepGlobe with a 0.85% decrease compared to the best baselines. The proposed MS-AGAN provides an efficient, cost-effective, and reliable method for the dynamic updating of road networks via HRSIs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]