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Background: Approximately 5% of people infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis progress to tuberculosis (TB) disease without preventive therapy. There is a need for a prognostic test to identify those at highest risk of incident TB so that therapy can be targeted. We evaluated host blood transcriptomic signatures for progression to TB disease., Methods: Close contacts (≥4 hours of exposure per week) of adult patients with culture-confirmed pulmonary TB were enrolled in Brazil. Investigation for incident, microbiologically confirmed, or clinically diagnosed pulmonary or extrapulmonary TB disease through 24 months of follow-up was symptom triggered. Twenty previously validated blood TB transcriptomic signatures were measured at baseline by real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Prognostic performance for incident TB was tested by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis at 6, 9, 12, and 24 months of follow-up., Results: Between June 2015 and June 2019, 1854 close contacts were enrolled. Twenty-five progressed to incident TB, of whom 13 had microbiologically confirmed disease. Baseline transcriptomic signature scores were measured in 1789 close contacts. Prognostic performance for all signatures was best within 6 months of diagnosis. Seven signatures (Gliddon4, Suliman4, Roe3, Roe1, Penn-Nicholson6, Francisco2, and Rajan5) met the minimum World Health Organization target product profile for a prognostic test through 6 months and 3 signatures (Gliddon4, Rajan5, and Duffy9) through 9 months. None met the target product profile threshold through ≥12 months of follow-up., Conclusions: Blood transcriptomic signatures may be useful for predicting TB risk within 9 months of measurement among TB-exposed contacts to target preventive therapy administration., Competing Interests: Potential conflicts of interest. A. P.-N. and T. J. S. have 2 patents: WO2016123058A1 WIPO (PCT), “Biomarkers for detection of tuberculosis risk,” and WO2017081618A9 WIPO (PCT), “Biomarkers for prospective determination of risk for development of active tuberculosis.” All other authors report no potential conflicts. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Background: Multiple host blood transcriptional signatures have been developed as non-sputum triage tests for tuberculosis (TB). We aimed to compare the diagnostic performance of 20 blood transcriptomic TB signatures for differentiating between symptomatic patients who have TB versus other respiratory diseases (ORD)., Methods: As part of a nested case-control study, individuals presenting with respiratory symptoms at primary healthcare clinics in Ethiopia, Malawi, Namibia, Uganda, South Africa and The Gambia were enrolled. TB was diagnosed based on clinical, microbiological and radiological findings. Transcriptomic signatures were measured in whole blood using microfluidic real-time quantitative PCR. Diagnostic performance was benchmarked against the World Health Organization Target Product Profile (TPP) for a non-sputum TB triage test., Results: Among 579 participants, 158 had definite, microbiologically confirmed TB, 32 had probable TB, while 389 participants had ORD. Nine signatures differentiated between ORD and TB with equivalent performance (Satproedprai7: area under the curve 0.83 (95% CI 0.79-0.87); Jacobsen3: 0.83 (95% CI 0.79-0.86); Suliman2: 0.82 (95% CI 0.78-0.86); Roe1: 0.82 (95% CI 0.78-0.86); Kaforou22: 0.82 (95% CI 0.78-0.86); Sambarey10: 0.81 (95% CI 0.77-0.85); Duffy9: 0.81 (95% CI 0.76-0.86); Gliddon3: 0.8 (95% CI 0.75-0.85); Suliman4 0.79 (95% CI 0.75-0.84)). Benchmarked against a 90% sensitivity, these signatures achieved specificities between 44% (95% CI 38-49%) and 54% (95% CI 49-59%), not meeting the TPP criteria. Signature scores significantly varied by HIV status and country. In country-specific analyses, several signatures, such as Satproedprai7 and Penn-Nicholson6, met the minimal TPP criteria for a triage test in Ethiopia, Malawi and South Africa., Conclusion: No signatures met the TPP criteria in a pooled analysis of all countries, but several signatures met the minimum criteria for a non-sputum TB triage test in some countries., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: G. Walzl and T.J. Scriba report grants from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation during the conduct of the study. T.J. Scriba and N.N. Chegou report grants from the South African Medical Research Council during the conduct of the study. G. Walzl reports grants from the South African National Research Foundation and EDCTP. T.J. Scriba has patents of the RISK11 (Darboe11), RISK6 (Penn-Nicholson6) and RISK4 (Suliman4) signatures issued. G. Walzl and N.N. Chegou have patents “TB diagnostic markers” (PCT/IB2013/054377), “Serum host biomarkers for tuberculosis disease” (PCT/IB2017/052142) and “Method for diagnosing TB” (PCT/IB2017/052142) granted but receive no royalties on these patents. The remaining authors have no potential conflicts of interest to disclose., (Copyright ©The authors 2024.)

Keloid disease (KD) is a common connective tissue disorder of unknown aetiopathogenesis with ill-defined treatment. Keloid scars present as exophytic fibroproliferative reticular lesions postcutaneous injury, and even though KD remains neoplastically benign, keloid lesions behave locally aggressive, invasive and expansive. To date, there is limited understanding and validation of biomarkers identified through combined proteomic and genomic evaluation of KD. Therefore, the aim in this study was to identify putative causative candidates in KD by performing a comprehensive proteomics analysis of subcellular fractions as well as the whole cell, coupled with transcriptomics data analysis of normal compared with KD fibroblasts. We then applied novel integrative bioinformatics analysis to demonstrate that NF-kB-p65 (RELA) from the cytosolic fraction and CAPN2 from the whole-cell lysate were statistically significantly upregulated in KD and associated with alterations in relevant key signaling pathways, including apoptosis. Our findings were further confirmed by showing upregulation of both RELA and CAPN2 in KD using flow cytometry and immunohistochemistry. Moreover, functional evaluation using real-time cell analysis and flow cytometry demonstrated that both omeprazole and dexamethasone inhibited the growth of KD fibroblasts by enhancing the rate of apoptosis. In conclusion, subcellular fractionation and metaproteogenomic analyses have identified, to our knowledge, 2 previously unreported biomarkers of significant relevance to keloid diagnostics and therapeutics., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Antibody features vary with tuberculosis (TB) disease state. Whether clinical variables, such as age or sex, influence associations between Mycobacterium tuberculosis-specific antibody responses and disease state is not well explored. Here we profiled Mycobacterium tuberculosis-specific antibody responses in 140 TB-exposed South African individuals from the Adolescent Cohort Study. We identified distinct response features in individuals progressing to active TB from non-progressing, matched controls. A multivariate antibody score differentially associated with progression (SeroScore) identified progressors up to 2 years before TB diagnosis, earlier than that achieved with the RISK6 transcriptional signature of progression. We validated these antibody response features in the Grand Challenges 6-74 cohort. Both the SeroScore and RISK6 correlated better with risk of TB progression in adolescents compared with adults, and in males compared with females. This suggests that age and sex are important, underappreciated modifiers of antibody responses associated with TB progression., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Tuberculosis (TB) caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis ( Mtb ) infects up to a quarter of the world's population. Although immune responses can control Mtb infection, 5%-10% of infected individuals can progress to active TB disease (progressors). A myriad of host factors regulate disease progression in TB and a better understanding of immune correlates of protection and disease is pivotal for the development of new therapeutics. Comparison of human whole blood transcriptomic metadata with that of macaque TB progressors and Mtb -infected diversity outbred mice (DO) led to the identification of differentially regulated gene (DEG) signatures, associated with TB progression or control. The current study assessed the function of Phospholipase C epsilon ( PLCƐ1 ), the top downregulated gene across species in TB progressors, using a gene-specific knockout mouse model of Mtb infection and in vitro Mtb -infected bone marrow-derived macrophages. PLCƐ1 gene expression was downregulated in TB progressors across species. PLCε1 deficiency in the mouse model resulted in increased susceptibility to Mtb infection , coincident accumulation of lung myeloid cells, and reduced ability to mount antibacterial responses. However, PLCε1 was not required for the activation and accumulation of T cells in mice. Our results suggest an important early role for PLCƐ1 in shaping innate immune response to TB and may represent a putative target for host-directed therapy., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

The ADP ribosyltransferases (PARPs 1-17) regulate diverse cellular processes, including DNA damage repair. PARPs are classified on the basis of their ability to catalyze poly-ADP-ribosylation (PARylation) or mono-ADP-ribosylation (MARylation). Although PARP9 mRNA expression is significantly increased in progressive tuberculosis (TB) in humans, its participation in host immunity to TB is unknown. Here, we show that PARP9 mRNA encoding the MARylating PARP9 enzyme was upregulated during TB in humans and mice and provide evidence of a critical modulatory role for PARP9 in DNA damage, cyclic GMP-AMP synthase (cGAS) expression, and type I IFN production during TB. Thus, Parp9-deficient mice were susceptible to Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and exhibited increased TB disease, cGAS and 2'3'-cyclic GMP-AMP (cGAMP) expression, and type I IFN production, along with upregulation of complement and coagulation pathways. Enhanced M. tuberculosis susceptibility is type I IFN dependent, as blockade of IFN α receptor (IFNAR) signaling reversed the enhanced susceptibility of Parp9-/- mice. Thus, in sharp contrast to PARP9 enhancement of type I IFN production in viral infections, this member of the MAR family plays a protective role by limiting type I IFN responses during TB.

Tuberculosis (TB), caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), is a global cause of death. Granuloma-associated lymphoid tissue (GrALT) correlates with protection during TB, but the mechanisms of protection are not understood. During TB, the transcription factor IRF4 in T cells but not B cells is required for the generation of the T H 1 and T H 17 subsets of helper T cells and follicular helper T (T FH )-like cellular responses. A population of IRF4 + T cells coexpress the transcription factor BCL6 during Mtb infection, and deletion of Bcl6 (Bcl6 fl/fl ) in CD4 + T cells (CD4 cre ) resulted in reduction of T FH -like cells, impaired localization within GrALT and increased Mtb burden. In contrast, the absence of germinal center B cells, MHC class II expression on B cells, antibody-producing plasma cells or interleukin-10-expressing B cells, did not increase Mtb susceptibility. Indeed, antigen-specific B cells enhance cytokine production and strategically localize T FH -like cells within GrALT via interactions between programmed cell death 1 (PD-1) and its ligand PD-L1 and mediate Mtb control in both mice and macaques., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature America, Inc.)

Background: Evidence on the comparative performance of purified protein derivative tuberculin skin tests (TST) and interferon-gamma release assays (IGRA) for predicting incident active tuberculosis (TB) remains conflicting. We conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis to directly compare the predictive performance for incident TB disease between TST and IGRA to inform policy., Methods: We searched Medline and Embase from 1 January 2002 to 4 September 2020, and studies that were included in previous systematic reviews. We included prospective longitudinal studies in which participants received both TST and IGRA and estimated performance as hazard ratios (HR) for the development of all diagnoses of TB in participants with dichotomised positive test results compared to negative results, using different thresholds of positivity for TST. Secondary analyses included an evaluation of the impact of background TB incidence. We also estimated the sensitivity and specificity for predicting TB. We explored heterogeneity through pre-defined sub-group analyses (e.g. country-level TB incidence). Publication bias was assessed using funnel plots and Egger's test. This review is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020205667., Findings: We obtained data from 13 studies out of 40 that were considered eligible (N = 32,034 participants: 36% from countries with TB incidence rate ≥100 per 100,000 population). All reported data on TST and QuantiFERON Gold in-Tube (QFT-GIT). The point estimate for the TST was highest with higher cut-offs for positivity and particularly when stratified by bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccine (BCG) status (15 mm if BCG vaccinated and 5 mm if not [TST 5/15 mm ]) at 2.88 (95% CI 1.69-4.90). The pooled HR for QFT-GIT was higher than for TST at 4.15 (95% CI 1.97-8.75). The difference was large in countries with TB incidence rate <100 per 100,000 population (HR 10.38, 95% CI 4.17-25.87 for QFT-GIT VS. HR 5.36, 95% CI 3.82-7.51 for TST 5/15 mm ) but much of this difference was driven by a single study (HR 5.13, 95% CI 3.58-7.35 for TST 5/15 mm VS. 7.18, 95% CI 4.48-11.51 for QFT-GIT, when excluding the study, in which all 19 TB cases had positive QFT-GIT results). The comparative performance was similar in the higher burden countries (HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.23-2.10 for QFT-GIT VS. HR 1.72, 95% CI 0.98-3.01 for TST 5/15 mm ). The predictive performance of both tests was higher in countries with TB incidence rate <100 per 100,000 population. In the lower TB incidence countries, the specificity of TST (76% for TST 5/15 mm ) and QFT-GIT (74%) for predicting active TB approached the minimum World Health Organization target (≥75%), but the sensitivity was below the target of ≥75% (63% for TST 5/15 mm and 65% for QFT-GIT). The absolute differences in positive and negative predictive values between TST 15 mm and QFT-GIT were small (positive predictive values 2.74% VS. 2.46%; negative predictive values 99.42% VS. 99.52% in low-incidence countries). Egger's test did not show evidence of publication bias (0.74 for TST 15 mm and p = 0.68 for QFT-GIT)., Interpretation: IGRA appears to have higher predictive performance than the TST in low TB incidence countries, but the difference was driven by a single study. Any advantage in clinical performance may be small, given the numerically similar positive and negative predictive values. Both IGRA and TST had lower performance in countries with high TB incidence. Test choice should be contextual and made considering operational and likely clinical impact of test results., Funding: YH, IA, and MXR were supported by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), United Kingdom (RP-PG-0217-20009). MQ was supported by the Medical Research Council [MC&#95;UU&#95;00004/07]., Competing Interests: YH and MXR report donation of QIAreach, an IGRA, by QIAGEN for a LTBI infection survey. YH, MXR, and IA report donations of Cy-TB, a TB-specific skin test for detection of LTBI, by the Serum Institute of India for a study on the feasibility and patient-important outcomes. They had no role in the submitted work. RD declared the receipt of payment for lectures from Qiagen and Oxford Immunotec. JD declared honoraria for lectures from Oxford Immunotec. AG declared receipt of research grants from the US National Institute of Health (NIH) and membership in NIH Council and IndoUS Science Technology Forum. CL provided consultation service to INSMED and received speakers honoraria from INSMED, GILEAD, JANSSEN and is a member of the Data Safety Board of trials from Medicines sans Frontiers, all outside of the submitted work. ILR has a patent (PCT/EP2019/064885), in vitro method for the diagnosis or detection of non-tuberculous mycobacteria. MS reports receipt of test kits free of charge from Qiagen and Oxford Immunotec. MS also reports receipt of research grants from Biotest and Astellas, consulting fees and honoraria from Biotest, Moderna, Qiagen, and Takeda, support for travel from Biotest, and participation on advisory board for Biotest and Moderna, all outside of this work. GS reports receipt of consulting fees from Pfizer, Diasorin, and INSMED. All other authors declare no competing interests., (© 2022 The Author(s).)

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health problem and we lack a comprehensive understanding of how Mycobacterium tuberculosis ( M. tb ) infection impacts host immune responses. We compared the induced immune response to TB antigen, BCG and IL-1β stimulation between latently M. tb infected individuals (LTBI) and active TB patients. This revealed distinct responses between TB/LTBI at transcriptomic, proteomic and metabolomic levels. At baseline, we identified a novel immune-metabolic association between pregnane steroids, the PPARγ pathway and elevated plasma IL-1ra in TB. We observed dysregulated IL-1 responses after BCG stimulation in TB patients, with elevated IL-1ra responses being explained by upstream TNF differences. Additionally, distinct secretion of IL-1α/IL-1β in LTBI/TB after BCG stimulation was associated with downstream differences in granzyme mediated cleavage. Finally, IL-1β driven signalling was dramatically perturbed in TB disease but was completely restored after successful treatment. This study improves our knowledge of how immune responses are altered during TB disease, and may support the design of improved preventive and therapeutic tools, including host-directed strategies., Competing Interests: MLA is a current employee of HIBIO. VR was employed by DATACTIX. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Llibre, Smith, Rouilly, Musvosvi, Nemes, Posseme, Mabwe, Charbit, Mbandi, Filander, Africa, Saint-André, Bondet, Bost, Mulenga, Bilek, Albert, Scriba and Duffy.)

Tuberculosis (TB) caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) kills 1.6 million people worldwide every year, and there is an urgent need for targeting host-pathogen interactions as a strategy to reduce mycobacterial resistance to current antimicrobials. Noncoding RNAs are emerging as important regulators of numerous biological processes and avenues for exploitation in host-directed therapeutics. Although long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) are abundantly expressed in immune cells, their functional role in gene regulation and bacterial infections remains understudied. In this study, we identify an immunoregulatory long intergenic noncoding RNA, lincRNA-MIR99AHG, which is upregulated in mouse and human macrophages upon IL-4/IL-13 stimulation and downregulated after clinical Mtb HN878 strain infection and in peripheral blood mononuclear cells from active TB patients. To evaluate the functional role of lincRNA-MIR99AHG, we used antisense locked nucleic acid (LNA) GapmeR-mediated antisense oligonucleotide (ASO) lncRNA knockdown experiments. Knockdown of lincRNA-MIR99AHG with ASOs significantly reduced intracellular Mtb growth in mouse and human macrophages and reduced pro-inflammatory cytokine production. In addition, in vivo treatment of mice with MIR99AHG ASOs reduced the mycobacterial burden in the lung and spleen. Furthermore, in macrophages, lincRNA-MIR99AHG is translocated to the nucleus and interacts with high affinity to hnRNPA2/B1 following IL-4/IL-13 stimulation and Mtb HN878 infection. Together, these findings identify lincRNA-MIR99AHG as a positive regulator of inflammation and macrophage polarization to promote Mtb growth and a possible target for adjunctive host-directed therapy against TB.

Immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS) can be a complication of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in patients with advanced HIV, but its pathogenesis is uncertain. In tuberculosis (TB) endemic countries, IRIS is often associated with mycobacterial infections or Bacille-Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination in children. With no predictive or confirmatory tests at present, IRIS remains a diagnosis of exclusion. We tested whether RISK6 and Sweeney3, validated immune-based blood transcriptomic signatures for TB, could predict or diagnose IRIS in HIV+ children and adults. Transcripts were measured by RT-qPCR in BCG-vaccinated children and by microarray in HIV+ adults with TB including TB meningitis (TBM). Signature scores before ART initiation and up to IRIS diagnosis were compared between participants who did or did not develop IRIS. In children, RISK6 and Sweeney3 discriminated IRIS cases from non-IRIS controls before ART, and at diagnosis. In adults with TB, RISK6 discriminated IRIS cases from controls after half-week on ART and at TB-IRIS onset. In adults with TBM, only Sweeney3 discriminated IRIS cases from controls before ART, while both signatures distinguished cases from controls at TB-IRIS onset. Parsimonious whole blood transcriptomic signatures for TB showed potential to predict and diagnose IRIS in HIV+ children and adults., (© 2022 The Authors. European Journal of Immunology published by Wiley-VCH GmbH.)

Background: We evaluated the diagnostic and prognostic performance of a transcriptomic signature of tuberculosis (TB) risk (RISK11) and QuantiFERON-TB Gold-plus (QFTPlus) as combination biomarkers of TB risk., Methods: Healthy South Africans who were HIV-negative aged 18-60 years with baseline RISK11 and QFTPlus results were evaluated in a prospective cohort study conducted between Sept 20, 2016 and Dec 20, 2019. Prevalence and incidence-rate ratios were used to evaluate risk of TB. Positive (LR+) and negative (LR-) likelihood ratios were used to compare individual tests versus Both-Positive (RISK11+/QFTPlus+) and Either-Positive (RISK11+ or QFTPlus+) combinations., Findings: Among 2912 participants, prevalent TB in RISK11+/QFTPlus+ participants was 13·3-fold (95% CI 4·2-42·7) higher than RISK11-/QFTPlus-; 2·4-fold (95% CI 1·2-4·8) higher than RISK11+/QFTPlus-; and 4·5-fold (95% CI 2·5-8·0) higher than RISK11-/QFTPlus+ participants. Risk of incident TB in RISK11+/QFTPlus+ participants was 8·3-fold (95% CI 2·5-27·0) higher than RISK11-/QFTPlus-; 2·5-fold (95% CI 1·0-6·6) higher than RISK11+/QFTPlus-; and 2·1-fold (95% CI 1·2-3·4) higher than RISK11-/QFTPlus+ participants, respectively. Compared to QFTPlus, the Both-Positive test combination increased diagnostic LR+ from 1·3 (95% CI 1·2-1·5) to 4·7 (95% CI 3·2-7·0), and prognostic LR+ from 1·4 (95% CI 1·2-1·5) to 2·8 (95% CI 1·5-5·1), but did not improve upon RISK11 alone. Compared with RISK11, the Either-Positive test combination decreased diagnostic LR- from 0·7 (95% CI 0·6-0·9) to 0·3 (95% CI 0·2-0·6), and prognostic LR- from 0·9 (95% CI 0·8-1·0) to 0·3 (0·1-0·7), but did not improve upon QFTPlus alone., Interpretation: Combining two tests such as RISK11 and QFTPlus, with discordant individual performance characteristics does not improve overall discriminatory performance, relative to the individual tests., Funding: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, South African Medical Research Council., Competing Interests: AP-N, GW, GC, TJS, and MH report grants from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, during the conduct of the study; AP-N and GW report grants from the South African Medical Research Council, during the conduct of the study; GW and TJS report grants from the South African National Research Foundation, during the conduct of the study. In addition, AP-N and TJS have a patent of the RISK11 and RISK6 signatures issued; GW has a patent “TB diagnostic markers” (PCT/IB2013/054377) issued and a patent “Method for diagnosing TB” (PCT/IB2017/052142) pending. All other authors had nothing to disclose., (© 2022 The Authors.)

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) clinical prediction rules rely on presence of symptoms, however many undiagnosed cases in the community are asymptomatic. This study aimed to explore the utility of clinical factors in predicting TB among people with HIV not seeking care., Methods: Baseline data were analysed from an observational cohort of ambulant adults with HIV in South Africa. Participants were tested for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) sensitisation (interferon-γ release assay, IGRA) and microbiologically-confirmed prevalent pulmonary TB disease at baseline, and actively surveilled for incident TB through 15 months. Multivariable LASSO regression with post-selection inference was used to test associations with Mtb sensitisation and TB disease., Findings: Between March 22, 2017, and May 15, 2018, 861 participants were enrolled; Among 851 participants included in the analysis, 94·5% were asymptomatic and 45·9% sensitised to Mtb. TB prevalence was 2·0% at baseline and incidence 2·3/100 person-years through 15 months follow-up. Study site was associated with baseline Mtb sensitisation ( p  < 0·001), prevalent ( p  < 0·001), and incident TB disease ( p  = 0·037). Independent of site, higher CD4 counts (per 50 cells/mm 3 , aOR 1·48, 95%CI 1·12-1·77, p  = 0·006) were associated with increased IGRA positivity, and participants without TB disease (aOR 0·80, 95%CI 0·69-0·94, p  = 0·006) had reduced IGRA positivity; no variables were independently associated with prevalent TB. Mixed ancestry (aHR 1·49, 95%CI 1·30->1000, p  = 0·005) and antiretroviral initiation (aHR 1·48, 95%CI 1·01-929·93, p  = 0·023) were independently associated with incident TB. Models incorporating clinical features alone performed poorly in diagnosing prevalent (AUC 0·65, 95%CI 0·44-0·85) or predicting progression to incident (0·67, 0·46-0·88) TB., Interpretation: CD4 count and antiretroviral initiation, proxies for immune status and HIV stage, were associated with Mtb sensitisation and TB disease. Inadequate performance of clinical prediction models may reflect predominantly subclinical disease diagnosed in this setting and unmeasured local site factors affecting transmission and progression., Funding: The CORTIS-HR study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1151915) and by the Strategic Health Innovation Partnerships Unit of the South African Medical Research Council with funds received from the South African Department of Science and Technology. The regulatory sponsor was the University of Cape Town., Competing Interests: AFG, GW, GC, TJS, and MH report grants from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF), during the conduct of the study. GW and TJS report grants from the South African Medical Research Council (SA-MRC), during the conduct of the study. GC reports a subcontract from the University of Cape Town to the Aurum Institute. GW reports a subcontract from the University of Cape Town [BMGF OPP1116632] to Stellenbosch University; grants from the National Institutes of Health and The European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership; patents pending or issued for “TB diagnostic markers” [PCT/IB2013/054377 (USA)], “Serum host biomarkers for tuberculosis disease” [PCT/IB2017/052142], and “Method for diagnosing tuberculosis” [AP/P/2016/009427 (ARIPO), 201580023042.X (China), 15755681.2 (Europe), 201617030869 (India), F/P/2016/258 (Nigeria), 2016/06324 (South Africa)]; and participation on an Independent Data Monitoring Committee [Gates MRI-TBV02-202 Study: NCT04556981] and a Safety Advisory Board [TB Sequel Study: NCT03251196]. MH reports institutional clinical trial grants to the University of Cape Town. TJS reports a patent pending for the RISK11 signature. All other authors declare no competing interests., (© 2022 The Author(s).)

Background: We aimed to understand host factors that affect discriminatory performance of a transcriptomic signature of tuberculosis risk (RISK11)., Methods: HIV-negative adults aged 18-60 years were evaluated in a prospective study of RISK11 and surveilled for tuberculosis through 15 months. Generalised linear models and receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) regression were used to estimate effect of host factors on RISK11 score (%marginal effect) and on discriminatory performance for tuberculosis disease (area under the curve, AUC), respectively., Findings: Among 2923 participants including 74 prevalent and 56 incident tuberculosis cases, percentage marginal effects on RISK11 score were increased among those with prevalent tuberculosis (+18·90%, 95%CI 12·66-25·13), night sweats (+14·65%, 95%CI 5·39-23·91), incident tuberculosis (+7·29%, 95%CI 1·46-13·11), flu-like symptoms (+5·13%, 95%CI 1·58-8·68), and smoking history (+2·41%, 95%CI 0·89-3·93) than those without; and reduced in males (-6·68%, 95%CI -8·31- -5·04) and with every unit increase in BMI (-0·13%, 95%CI -0·25- -0·01). Adjustment for host factors affecting controls did not change RISK11 discriminatory performance. Cough was associated with 72·55% higher RISK11 score in prevalent tuberculosis cases. Stratification by cough improved diagnostic performance from AUC = 0·74 (95%CI 0·67-0·82) overall, to 0·97 (95%CI 0·90-1·00, p < 0·001) in cough-positive participants. Combining host factors with RISK11 improved prognostic performance, compared to RISK11 alone, (AUC = 0·76, 95%CI 0·69-0·83 versus 0·56, 95%CI 0·46-0·68, p < 0·001) over a 15-month predictive horizon., Interpretation: Several host factors affected RISK11 score, but only adjustment for cough affected diagnostic performance. Combining host factors with RISK11 should be considered to improve prognostic performance., Funding: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, South African Medical Research Council., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests AP-N, GW, GC, TJS, and MH report grants from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, during the conduct of the study; AP-N and GW report grants from the South African Medical Research Council, during the conduct of the study; GW and TJS report grants from the South African National Research Foundation, during the conduct of the study. In addition, AP-N and TJS have patents of the RISK11 and RISK6 signatures pending; GW has a patent “TB diagnostic markers” (PCT/IB2013/054377) issued and a patent “Method for diagnosing TB” (PCT/IB2017/052142) pending. All other authors had nothing to disclose., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)