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Large-scale climatic fluctuations, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, can have dramatic effects on ocean ecosystem productivity. Many mobile species breeding in temperate or higher latitudes escape the extremes of seasonal climate variation through long-distance, even trans-global migration, but how they deal with, or are affected by, such longer phased climate fluctuations is less understood. To investigate how a long-lived migratory species might respond to such periodic environmental change we collected and analysed a 13 year biologging dataset for a trans-equatorial migrant, the Manx shearwater ( Puffinus puffinus ). Our primary finding was that in El Niño years, non-breeding birds were at more northerly (lower) latitudes than in La Niña years, a response attributable to individual flexibility in migratory destinations. Daily time spent foraging varied in concert with this latitudinal shift, with birds foraging less in El Niño years. Secondarily, we found that in subsequent breeding, a hemisphere away, El Niño years saw a reduction in foraging time and chick provisioning rates: effects that could not be attributed to conditions at their breeding grounds in the North Atlantic. Thus, in a highly migratory animal, individuals may adjust to fluctuating non-breeding conditions but still experience cascading carry over effects on subsequent behaviour.

How individual animals respond to climate change is key to whether populations will persist or go extinct. Yet, few studies investigate how changes in individual behavior underpin these population-level phenomena. Shifts in the distributions of migratory animals can occur through adaptation in migratory behaviors, but there is little understanding of how selection and plasticity contribute to population range shift. Here, we use long-term geolocator tracking of Balearic shearwaters ( Puffinus mauretanicus ) to investigate how year-to-year changes in individual birds' migrations underpin a range shift in the post-breeding migration. We demonstrate a northward shift in the post-breeding range and show that this is brought about by individual plasticity in migratory destination, with individuals migrating further north in response to changes in sea-surface temperature. Furthermore, we find that when individuals migrate further, they return faster, perhaps minimizing delays in return to the breeding area. Birds apparently judge the increased distance that they will need to migrate via memory of the migration route, suggesting that spatial cognitive mechanisms may contribute to this plasticity and the resulting range shift. Our study exemplifies the role that individual behavior plays in populations' responses to environmental change and highlights some of the behavioral mechanisms that might be key to understanding and predicting species persistence in response to climate change., Competing Interests: Competing interests statement:The authors declare no competing interest.