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Europe faces regular introductions and reintroductions of bluetongue virus (BTV) serotypes, most recently exemplified by the incursion of serotype 3 in the Netherlands. Although the long-distance wind dispersal of the disease vector, Culicoides spp., is recognized as a virus introduction pathway, it remains understudied in risk assessments. A Quantitative Risk Assessment framework was developed to estimate the risk of BTV-3 incursion into mainland Europe from Sardinia, where the virus has been present since 2018. We used an atmospheric transport model (HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) to infer the probability of airborne dispersion of the insect vector. Epidemiological disease parameters quantified the virus prevalence in vector population in Sardinia and its potential first transmission after introduction in a new area. When assuming a 24h maximal flight duration, the risk of BTV introduction from Sardinia is limited to the Mediterranean Basin, mainly affecting the southwestern area of the Italian Peninsula, Sicily, Malta, and Corsica. The risk extends to the northern and central parts of Italy, Balearic archipelago, and mainland France and Spain, mostly when maximal flight duration is longer than 24h. Additional knowledge on vector flight conditions and Obsoletus complex-specific parameters could improve the robustness of the model. Providing both spatial and temporal insights into BTV introduction risks, our framework is a key tool to guide global surveillance and preparedness against epizootics., (© 2024 The Author(s). Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.)

Bridging the gap between the micro and the macro scale in modelling food security to inform context-specific regionalised policies remains a major scientific challenge. A better understanding of the relations between global and local drivers impacting local food self-sufficiency (LFSS) is essential. We applied to the whole Mediterranean environmental area (Southern and Northern) a modelling framework for structural estimates (PLS-PM) using qualitative and quantitative methods to combine local-level information from field surveys and participatory workshops with global-level data. Our findings show that farmland expansion and intensification spatially disconnected from urban consumption areas do not appear to foster LFSS. On the other hand, public policies appear key to enhancing LFSS in the Mediterranean area if appropriate to the particular regional context. We outline how this multi-level modelling methodology can contribute to a place-based approach by informing context-specific regionalised policies aimed at food security., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Large GWAS indicated that genetic factors influence the response to SARS-CoV-2. However, sex, age, concomitant diseases, differences in ancestry, and uneven exposure to the virus impacted the interpretation of data. We aimed to perform a GWAS of COVID-19 outcome in a homogeneous population who experienced a high exposure to the virus and with a known infection status. We recruited inhabitants of Bergamo province-that in spring 2020 was the epicenter of the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic in Europe-via an online questionnaire followed by personal interviews. Cases and controls were matched by age, sex and risk factors. We genotyped 1195 individuals and replicated the association at the 3p21.31 locus with severity, but with a stronger effect size that further increased in gravely ill patients. Transcriptome-wide association study highlighted eQTLs for LZTFL1 and CCR9 . We also identified 17 loci not previously reported, suggestive for an association with either COVID-19 severity or susceptibility., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (© 2023 The Authors.)

Background: Tolvaptan and octreotide-long-acting release (LAR) have renoprotective effects in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) that are partially mediated by amelioration of compensatory glomerular hyperfiltration. We compared the effects of tolvaptan and octreotide-LAR combination therapy versus those of tolvaptan monotherapy in patients with ADPKD., Methods: This pilot, randomized, placebo-controlled, cross-over trial primarily compared the effects of 1- and 4-week treatments with octreotide-LAR (two 20-mg i.m. injections) or placebo (two i.m. 0.9% saline solution injections) added-on tolvaptan (up to 90 and 30 mg/d) on GFR (iohexol plasma clearance) in 19 consenting patients with ADPKD referred to a clinical research center in Italy. Analyses were intention-to-treat. The local ethical committee approved the study., Results: At 4 weeks, GFR significantly decreased by a median (interquartile range) of 3 (-1 to 5) ml/min per 1.73 m2 with tolvaptan and placebo (P=0.01) and by 7 (3-14) ml/min per 1.73 m2 with tolvaptan and octreotide-LAR (P=0.03). GFR changes during the two treatment periods differed by 2 (-5 to 14) ml/min per 1.73 m2 (P=0.28). At 1 week, GFR significantly decreased by 3 (0-7) ml/min per 1.73 m2 with tolvaptan and placebo (P=0.006) and by 10 (-6 to 16) ml/min per 1.73 m2 with tolvaptan and octreotide-LAR add-on therapy (P<0.001). GFR changes during the two treatment periods significantly differed by 3 (0-12) ml/min per 1.73 m2 (P=0.012). Total kidney volume nonsignificantly changed by 4 (-48 to 23) ml with tolvaptan and placebo (P=0.74), whereas it decreased significantly by 41 (25-77) ml with tolvaptan and octreotide-LAR (P=0.001). Changes during the two treatment periods differed by 36 (0-65) ml (P=0.01). Octreotide-LAR also attenuated (P=0.02) the aquaretic effect of tolvaptan. Treatments were well tolerated., Conclusions: In patients with ADPKD, octreotide-LAR added-on tolvaptan reduced GFR more effectively than octreotide-LAR and placebo. Octreotide-LAR also reduced total and cystic kidney volumes and attenuated the acquaretic effect of tolvaptan., Clinical Trial Registry Name and Registration Number: Tolvaptan-Octreotide LAR Combination in ADPKD (TOOL), NCT03541447., (Copyright © 2023 by the American Society of Nephrology.)

Brown rot in stored stone fruits, caused by Monilinia spp., may be due to preharvest and storage factors, but the combined effect of these factors has yet to be investigated. We set up two experiments to monitor the progression of brown rot during the storage of nectarines subjected to various preharvest and storage conditions. We assessed the effects of different agricultural practices (irrigation regimen × fruit load) and harvest dates on brown rot progress during storage in 2018 and the effect of different storage temperatures in 2019. We found that the cumulative incidence of brown rot during storage increased with individual fruit mass, which was influenced by agricultural practices, and for later harvest dates. It also increased with storage temperature. We observed that during storage no secondary infections developed in nectarines not in direct contact with fruits infected with Monilinia laxa . These findings led to the identification of candidate variables describing the brown rot risk on nectarines during storage, such as individual fruit mass, meteorological conditions before fruit harvest, prevalence of brown rot at harvest, and storage temperature. We used these variables to build a mathematical model for estimating the time-to-appearance of brown rot symptoms in stored nectarines. This model fitted the experimental data well, highlighting the need to pay greater attention to the interaction between preharvest and storage conditions. This model could be used to evaluate management strategies for reducing the impact of brown rot in nectarines during storage.

Aims: In type 2 diabetic patients with obesity, hyperfiltration is a risk factor for accelerated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decline and is ameliorated by calorie restriction (CR). We assessed whether CR-induced amelioration of hyperfiltration could translate into slower long-term GFR decline in this population., Methods: In this academic, single-center, parallel-group, prospective, randomized, open-label, blinded endpoint trial, consenting >40-year-old patients with type 2 diabetes, BMI ≥27 kg/m 2 , creatinine <1.2 mg/dL and albuminuria ≤300 mg/24 h were randomized (1:1) to two-year 25% CR (n = 53) or standard diet (SD, n = 50). Primary outcome was 6-month measured GFR. Analyses were by modified intention-to-treat., Results: At 6 months GFR decreased by 5.16 ± 10.03 mL/min (P = 0.001) with CR, and by 0.98 ± 9.71 mL/min (P = 0.497) with SD. Between-group difference was significant (P = 0.044). GFR decline from 6 to 24 months was significant with SD (P < 0.01), but not with CR (P = 0.075). Between-group difference, however, was not significant (P = 0.414). Body weight, BMI, waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, HbA1c, blood glucose, serum triglycerides decreased and ApoA-I concentration increased with CR. No changes were observed with SD. Between-group differences were significant. CR was tolerated well., Conclusions: In obese type 2 diabetic patients, CR ameliorated glomerular hyperfiltration and several cardiovascular risk factors, and blunted long-term GFR decline., Trial Registration: NCT01930136., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Previous studies have identified regions where the occurrence of rainfall significantly increases or decreases the probability for subsequent rainfall over periods that range from a few days to several weeks. These observable phenomena are termed "rainfall feedback" (RF). To better understand the land-atmosphere interactions involved in RF, the behavior of RF patterns was analyzed using data from 1849 to 2016 at ~3000 sites in the contiguous United States. We also considered changes in major land-use types and applied a geographically weighted regression model technique for analyzing the predictors of RF. This approach identified non-linear and spatially non-stationary relationships between RF, climate, land use, and land type. RF patterns in certain regions of the United States are predictable by modeling variables associated with climate, season, and land use. The model outputs also demonstrate the extent to which the effect of precipitation, temperature, and land use on RF depend on season and location. Specifically, major changes were observed for land use associated with agriculture in the western United States, which had negative and positive influences on RF in summer and winter, respectively. In contrast, developed land in the eastern United States correlated with positive RF values in summer but with negative ones in winter. We discuss how changes in climate and land use would be expected to affect land-atmosphere interactions, as well as the possible role that physical mechanisms and rain-enhanced bioaerosol emissions may play in the spatiotemporal changes observed for historical patterns of rainfall frequency in the United States., (© 2021 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)